Why Democratic Unity Could Be Easier to Achieve This Time: Donald Trump and Barack Obama
With only a few weeks left in the 2016 primary campaign, a lot of liberal pundits and Democratic Party leaders
Democratic Forecast Model Beats the Polls
Late last week, the Crystal Ball published a simple forecasting model that I created to try to predict the results
Model shows Clinton as favorite in most of Tuesday’s primaries
Based on a slightly revised version of a model I created in advance of the March 15 Democratic primaries, Hillary
Higher Voter Turnout Alone is Unlikely to Change the Outcome of the 2016 Presidential Election
“Today, roughly half of born-again Christians aren’t voting. They’re staying home. Imagine instead millions of people of faith all across
A simple model for predicting Hillary Clinton’s vote in the March 15 Democratic primaries
A simple model based on two predictors — the racial composition of the Democratic primary electorate and a dummy variable
Who Will Win the Nominations? Lessons from Iowa and New Hampshire
The American presidential nomination process gives enormous influence to two small and, in many ways, highly unrepresentative states: Iowa and
Book Excerpt from The Surge: Through a Glass Darkly
It’s spring break at the University of Virginia, and we want to supplement your beach reading — or replace a
Why Outside Spending is Overrated
The Koch brothers and their network of wealthy conservative donors recently announced that they intend to spend almost $900 million
Obama’s Approval Rating and the Outlook for the 2016 Presidential Election
With the 2014 midterm election in the rearview mirror, the attention of pundits and political prognosticators has quickly shifted to
False Hope: Why Libertarians Won’t Help Republicans Win the Youth Vote
The Republican Party has a major problem with young voters. According to national exit polls, the GOP has lost the
Americans Are Politically Divided and Our Feelings toward The Parties Show It
How politically divided are ordinary Americans? The recent release of a report on polarization in public opinion by the Pew
Nationalization of Senate Elections Poses Challenge to Democrats in 2014
Democrats face several challenges in trying to maintain their majority in the U.S. Senate in the 2014 midterm election. In
The Minimal Class Divide in American Politics
How deep is the class divide in American politics today? According to some scholars and pundits, it is very deep
Generic Ballot Model Shows Senate Control at Tipping Point
Crystal Ball Senior Columnist Alan Abramowitz’s discussion of his Senate elections model not only confirms how close we expect the
2014 House Forecast Update: No Wave in Sight
The results of a simple but extremely accurate midterm election forecasting model indicate that the 2014 U.S. House elections are