Beyond 2010: Demographic Change and the Future of the Republican Party
Less than 16 months after an election in which Republicans lost the presidency along with 8 Senate seats and 21
What to Expect in November
Just about everyone agrees that Republicans will be gaining a sizeable number of U.S. House seats come November, but this
Does Congressional Popularity Matter?
Congress is very unpopular. Like President Obama, Congress has seen its approval rating decline in recent months. But Congress is
Open Seats and U.S. House Elections
Recent announcements by four Democratic incumbents from marginal or Republican-leaning districts that they will not run for reelection next year
The Senate: Where Progressive Legislation Goes to Die
Editor’s Note: Senior columnist Alan Abramowitz is concerned about the Senate from a progressive prospective. He has offered this commentary,
What Happens in Virginia and New Jersey, Stays in Virginia and New Jersey
In American politics, what comes around usually goes around. But it doesn’t always go around this quickly. Just one year
Ideology in the American Public
Is the United States today a center-left nation or a center-right nation? There is no question that Barack Obama’s victory
Deja Vu All Over Again?
Could Democrats be heading toward an electoral disaster comparable to the 1994 midterm election in which they lost 54 House
Forecasting the Midterm Elections
COPYRIGHT 2009 SABATO’S CRYSTAL BALL The 2010 midterm election is still 14 months away. Fourteen months is a lifetime in
Despite Falling Poll Numbers, Little Evidence of Erosion in Obama’s Base
Over the past several weeks President Obama has seen his approval rating fall from the low-60s to the low-50s in
The Myth of the Independent Voter Revisited
Independents are hot. If you’ve been reading the opinion columns in the newspaper or watching the talking heads on television,
A Note on the Sotomayor Confirmation Vote
Like almost everything else in Congress, Senate votes on Supreme Court nominations have become much more polarized along party lines
Do Americans View Both Parties as Too Extreme?
According to the Gallup Poll, many Americans today view both major political parties as too extreme ideologically. In a survey
Who’s Afraid of Big Government? Not Us
Barack Obama has been pulling the wool over the eyes of the American people. At least that’s what some conservative
Back to the Future for Obama
Barack Obama’s victory in the 2008 presidential election represented one of the most dramatic shifts in political power in American