Not Their Cup of Tea: The Republican Establishment versus the Tea Party
With the 2013 government shutdown and debt ceiling crisis now behind us, one conclusion seems inescapable — this was a
Why Section 5 is Still Needed: Racial Polarization and the Voting Rights Act in the 21st Century
Last week, the U.S. Supreme Court heard oral arguments in the latest challenge to what many consider the most important
Midterm Forecast: Democrats May Gain House Seats in 2014 but Majority Probably Out of Reach
The 2014 midterm elections are a long way off but one thing is already fairly clear: Democrats face an uphill
REPUBLICAN ELECTORAL COLLEGE PLAN WOULD UNDERMINE DEMOCRACY
Republicans are struggling to right their ship after the defeat of 2012. The unfavorable demographic trends for the GOP that
Do presidential campaigns matter? Evidence from the 2008 election
With more than three months left until Election Day, the 2012 general election campaign is well under way. President Obama
IT DON’T MEAN A THING IF IT AIN’T GOT THAT SWING: IN SEARCH OF THE ELUSIVE SWING VOTER
As pollsters and political commentators have focused on the outlook for the November general election, swing voters have invariably been
FASTEN YOUR SEAT BELTS: POLARIZATION, WEAK ECONOMY FORECAST VERY CLOSE ELECTION
We are pleased this week to publish Alan Abramowitz’s first forecast for the 2012 presidential election. Prof. Abramowitz, one of
Persuasion Versus Mobilization: Obama & Romney’s swing state strategy
With five months to go until Election Day 2012, all indications are that the presidential race between Barack Obama and
BUYING A PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION? IT’S NOT AS EASY AS YOU THINK
It looks like it’s going to be another tough season for long-suffering fans of the Chicago Cubs. Two months into
What Does President Obama’s May Approval Rating Tell Us about His Reelection Chances?
According to a Gallup Poll analysis of recent polling data on the mood of the American public, President Obama appears
Are Independent Leaners Closet Partisans or True Independents?
A recent report from Third Way, a centrist Democratic think tank, criticized my research and that of other political scientists
The Early Outlook for the 2012 Congressional Elections: A Forecasting Perspective
In today’s Crystal Ball, Alan Abramowitz — whose election models are among the best in the business — provides an
The Third Party Illusion
If you’ve been following the political commentary in the national media recently, you’ve probably heard that the 2012 presidential election
The Anti-Incumbent Election Myth
Congress is very unpopular. In November, according to the Gallup Poll, only 13% of Americans approved of the job that
Why Barack Obama has a good chance of winning a second term
According to the Time-for-Change forecasting model, which has correctly predicted the winner of the popular vote in every presidential election