Measuring Virginia Vote Share
In 2009, now-Gov. Bob McDonnell (R) won the Virginia gubernatorial election in a 17-percentage point rout. Three years later, President
NOTES ON THE STATE OF POLITICS
Sarvis just the latest Virginia long shot This November, there will be only one statewide candidate out of seven in
Obama and the Second-Term Blahs
As we enter the dog days of Congress’ August recess, Americans are displeased with Washington. For instance, a recent poll
Republicans Certain to Retain Control of Virginia House of Delegates
The Crystal Ball typically focuses on national or statewide politics, but given our base at the University of Virginia Center
You’re Not From Around Here, Are You?
“I was born an American; I will live an American; I shall die an American.” — Daniel Webster While Daniel
Demographics Overtakes Economy as Prime Presidential Election Indicator
One of the questions we asked prior to the 2012 election was whether or not state-level unemployment figures would matter
Pondering Pennsylvania’s Proportional Plan
UPDATE: The Crystal Ball‘s Geoffrey Skelley spoke with Paul Brandus of West Wing Report about this article. To hear the
South Carolina Doubles Down on 2014
When Sen. Jim DeMint (R-SC) unexpectedly announced that he planned to resign his seat in early 2013 to become president
THREE’S A CROWD: WHERE THIRD-PARTY CANDIDATES MIGHT HAVE AN IMPACT
American electoral history is mainly a story of two parties. But every now and then, a third party or independent
Less than 50 Days to Go
While the presidential race remains close, it’s becoming clear that one would rather be President Obama than Mitt Romney at
Notes on the State of Politics
The Little Things Matter Many politicians may not want to admit it, but much of political success is built on
Reviewing the Convention Ratings
While usually the realm of sitcoms, game shows and sports, politics became part of the TV ratings discussion during the
Is Obama as Goode as Gold in Virginia? Not Exactly
Today, the Virginia State Board of Elections ruled that former Rep. Virgil Goode has qualified for the state’s presidential ballot.
The Old Dominion’s Political Map
Our Political Map of the United States was such a big hit that we’ve decided to drill a little bit
2012 Gubernatorial Update: Republicans Aim for Their High-Water Mark
A record-tying year could be in store for Republicans in 2012. No, we’re not talking about Mitt Romney — even