2008 President

In 1800, Thomas Jefferson endured a presidential campaign in which supporters of his opponent, President John Adams, labored mightily to convince the public that the then-vice president was an atheistic coward hell-bent on ripping Bibles from the homes of God-fearing Americans. A Jeffersonian writer, in turn, called Adams a “hideous hermaphroditical character which has neither the force and the firmness of a man nor the gentleness or sensibility of a woman.” In later campaigns, Andrew Jackson’s wife was referred to as a woman of the night, and Abraham Lincoln was characterized as a baboon in as many creative ways as the opposition could imagine. When Al Smith, a Catholic, campaigned across the country in 1928, his train was met in certain parts by flaming crosses, courtesy of the Ku Klux Klan. Those examples tell us a couple of things: Dirty tricks in U.S. politics are as old as the republic, and politics ain’t a Sunday tea party. Elections in this country are marked by a vigorous, often coarse dialogue, and that has always been the case. So just how much soil did the dirt of 2008 leave on John McCain and Barack Obama compared with other recent presidential nominees? During

The Crystal Ball is proud to announce that, with only a handful of official election outcomes still pending, we recorded a nearly perfect record of accuracy in predicting the results of the 2008 Election, including the correct October prediction of the final Electoral College total of 364 Obama, 174 McCain. The 2008 predictions of the Crystal Ball also matched, exactly, the results of all gubernatorial contests and correctly predicted the outcomes of every senatorial race among all Senate contests which have been officially called by two or more major networks at the time of publication. In the 435 races for the House of Representatives, the Crystal Ball has achieved an accuracy rate of at least 98 percent, pending recounts. The Crystal Ball predicted a maximum pickup for the Democratic Party of 26 seats. Results as of time of publication appear headed toward an actual pickup for the Democrats of between 20 and 23 seats in the House. This week we are republishing a Crystal Ball article from July, written by Alan Abramowitz, Thomas Mann, and Larry Sabato, in which the authors predicted a comfortable Obama/Democratic victory on Election Day. Despite mainstream media coverage forecasting a prolonged, “too close to call”

Back in 2002 and 2004, the Crystal Ball brought misery to Democrats and joy to Republicans, as we projected the solid GOP victories that occurred in those years. The cycle of politics is not to be denied, and so in 2006 and now in 2008, there is a role reversal. With each passing week, we send Democratic spirits soaring ever higher and depress our Republican readers further. Yin and yang. The tide goes out, and it comes in. The first shall be last and the last shall be first. And all that stuff. Just remember, don’t credit or blame the weather forecaster for the weather. Before we give our latest updates for the Electoral College, Congress, and the governors, let’s focus briefly on what is happening in the voter turnout arena. We’ve been monitoring early voting in states such as North Carolina, Georgia, Nevada, and Colorado and it is abundantly clear that registered Democrats are turning out at extraordinary rates, at least so far, and Republicans are not. Take the Tar Heel State, for example. Already 629,296 people have voted early, well above the pace of 2004. Democrats are over 56% of the 2008 total, compared to just 45% in

OVERALL: John McCain’s position in the Electoral College continued to deteriorate in the previous seven days. We are making the following adjustments, accordingly. AR from Solid McCain to Likely McCain: The financial meltdown is lowering McCain’s percentage here, but as of now, we do not believe a McCain win is seriously threatened. If Bill Clinton spent a week here advocating Obama, though, the tide could turn. FL from Toss-Up to Leans Obama: We’re still not completely convinced that the Sunshine State is in the Obama camp, but the polling data from many organizations suggest that Obama is doing well in the critical Tampa Bay area and elsewhere, and therefore he has at least a narrow lead. It goes without saying that there is zero chance that McCain can win without these 27 electoral votes, so this is one state where his campaign simply must reverse the tide. MT from Solid McCain to Lean McCain: McCain thought he nailed down Big Sky Country when he picked an NRA favorite, Sarah Palin, for his ticket. But polls show it close enough for an Obama upset, especially if some of the third party candidates can collectively grab 5-8%. We still think McCain is

With one month remaining in the 2008 presidential campaign, national and state polling data indicate that Barack Obama holds a clear lead over John McCain. In the past sixty days, despite a series of dramatic events including the Democratic and Republican national conventions, John McCain’s surprise selection of Alaska Governor Sarah Palin as his running-mate, a financial crisis on Wall Street, and the first presidential and vice-presidential debates, there has been very little change in the relative standing of the candidates. Since clinching the Democratic nomination in early June, Obama has led McCain in the Gallup Tracking Poll for 14 out of 16 weeks while McCain has led for only one week. During the first week of September, immediately following the Republican Convention, McCain had a 2 point lead over Obama. By the second week of September, however, Obama had taken a 2 point lead and during the final two weeks of September, Obama led McCain by 4 points and 5 points respectively. That margin appears to have increased slightly during the first week of October. Obama’s margin over McCain has been 5, 7, 8, and 7 points in the three-day rolling averages for October 2-5. Other recent national polls

All season, political observers have been speculating when, if ever, the Electoral College and the state and national polls would reflect the basic pro-Democratic fundamentals of the presidential election year. Those fundamentals, historic true-blues (pun intended in this case), include presidential popularity (the Republican incumbent is at rock-bottom), a horribly weak economy, and a disliked foreign war. All point to a sizeable Democratic victory. Yet the public opinion polls have often painted a very different picture. While the surveys haven’t been as volatile as some have suggested, and Obama has usually been ahead, the bottom-line numbers were close. Most of the summer, Barack Obama led by a small margin, and then John McCain vaulted ahead of Obama with a sizeable convention bounce in early September. Some believed an upset by McCain was in the making—history be damned. Was Obama a flawed candidate? Was his racial identity preventing a victory? Was McCain running a brilliant tactical campaign that would enable him to cheat history? On July 24th, the Crystal Ball published an essay by Alan Abramowitz, Thomas E. Mann, and this author, entitled “The Myth of a Toss-Up Election”. Controversial at the time, it suggested that, sooner or later, the election

The frenzied media probably found the first vice-presidential debate disappointing. Even after 90 minutes, neither the well-seasoned gaffe-machine nor the novice interview-bungler produced much fodder for an SNL skit or the headline news. Instead, both candidates waged a strategic battle for the middle to win over the middle class and independent voters. Palin portrayed herself as the folksy, straight-talking Washington outsider, while Biden presented himself as an experienced, detail-oriented stalwart for change from “Bush’s failed policies”. Both candidates had clear instructions coming into the debate. Biden had to harp on about the middle-class and glue John McCain to George W. Bush, while resisting long lectures and headline grabbing condescension. Any flicker of patronization would conjure up images of George H.W. Bush’s foreign policy lecture to his female vice presidential rival Geraldine Ferraro in 1984. Palin, by contrast, had to reassure voters that she was well-versed on a host of issues while energizing the conservative base and drawing in independents. She simply could not afford another Katie Couric interview. Stylistically, the candidates’ visual gestures embodied their strengths. Biden’s healthy dose of firm hand gestures illustrated the authoritativeness of his points, while Palin’s halogen gleams and the occasional wink made her seem

The presidential debate season is just underway. The polls are in flux. The issue agenda–which has already shifted in the last month from the Sarah Palin effect to “lipstick on a pig” to the nation’s worst economic crisis since the Depression–may shift again before Election Day. But one important factor has remained constant: the Democrats’ clear-cut advantage in the ongoing voter registration wars. Since President George W. Bush’s reelection in 2004, the Democrats have registered nearly 1.3 million additional voters while the Republicans have lost nearly 800,000. This, as states prepare to close their registration rolls in advance of the general election. Not every one of the newly minted Democrats is a sure vote for Barack Obama next month. Some crossed over from the ranks of Republicans and independents solely to cast a primary ballot for Hillary Clinton. But many of the new Democrats registered long before the primaries or since then, creating a large pool of likely new voters for Obama. They comprise a necessary asset for the Democratic nominee in offsetting some powerful factors that could work against him. One is the racial question. How many votes will Obama lose solely because he is African American? The well-noted

There are a few changes to report in the nation’s Senate races since we last reviewed them in July-almost all of them in favor of the Democratic candidates. Yet the fundamental outlook hasn’t changed terribly much. The Democrats will pick up a fair number of seats to pad their slim 51-to-49 margin. They are defending a mere 12 seats, and all their incumbents are running again. The Republicans have drawn the short straw, trying to protect 23 seats with five incumbents retiring in a tough political environment for the GOP. Democrats are on target to add a minimum of four seats. They may gain as many as seven or eight. Unlike some other prognosticators, however, we still believe the Democrats are unlikely to gain the nine seats required to hit the magic number of 60 needed to shut down filibusters. Actually, Democrats need an additional ten seats to get to 60. Does anyone really count Sen. Joseph Lieberman (I-CT) as a reliable party vote on much of anything, especially in national security matters and foreign policy? As we noted in our earlier analyses, the Senate has changed party control six times: in 1980 (D to R), 1986 (R to D),

Presidential debate season is upon us. That means John McCain, Barack Obama, Joe Biden, and Sarah Palin are traveling around the country with huge binders of prep materials under their arms—and dreams of an eight-year relationship with the Secret Service dancing in their heads. For the rest of us, however, we’re getting ready to tune into the political equivalent of a NASCAR race. NASCAR and the presidential race are analogous? Indeed they are, and here’s why: Lots of important things are going on during a NASCAR race. A great deal of strategy is involved with maneuvering an automobile around a crowded track at 200-plus miles per hour and either taking or keeping a lead. NASCAR requires an enormous amount of skill, and that’s why the same few drivers win almost all the races—because it’s not easy. But, let’s be honest, NASCAR fans show up at the track and are glued to the excitement first and foremost for one reason: They want to see a crash (non-fatal, of course), and preferably several of them. It’s a disappointment if one doesn’t happen. And ladies and gentlemen, the same principle applies to presidential debates. The candidates discuss many important issues, and they try

In early summer, the Crystal Ball took its first look at the likely November 4th Electoral College map. Our assessment was that, in the College at least, the contest appeared close. John McCain had 174 solid or likely electoral votes to Barack Obama’s 200 solid or likely. The lead switched once we added in states that were “leaning” to one or the other: McCain had 227 votes to Obama’s 212, with 270 needed for election. Fully 99 electoral votes in eight other states (CO, MI, NH, NV, OH, PA, VA, and WI) remained in the toss-up category. We based our map not just on current polling but also the recent historical record in presidential elections. To some degree, this explained the differences between our map and those of some other analysts. As we revise it in this essay, we will once again add a dose of history to current trends, and at least tentatively, we will attempt to narrow the number of toss-ups. Just think about all that has happened since early July. Obama took his European trip, hailed in some quarters and condemned in others. The McCain campaign came alive for the first time in months, attacking Obama as

This is the time of the presidential campaign for “game-changing” moments, whether it is a huge outdoor acceptance speech in the shadow of the Rocky Mountains or the vice presidential selection of a largely unknown young female governor from Alaska. It is a potentially pivotal time in an historic election. But what the campaign of Barack Obama is ultimately looking for is a “map changer,” a path to an Electoral College majority that they hope will take them through plenty of Republican terrain. It is a more far-flung route to the White House than the last successful Democratic presidential candidate, Bill Clinton, took in 1992. He essentially picked up where Michael Dukakis had left off four years earlier. Dukakis did not run particularly well in 1988, winning only 10 states and barely 100 electoral votes against Republican George H.W. Bush. But he set the table for Clintomore favorable election year for the Democrats of 1992, the Arkansas governor cleaned up. He swept 26 of the 27 states where Dukakis had made his best showing, including all 10 that the latter had won. This time, Democrats have an even bigger electoral map to build on than they did going into 1992.