2010 House

Each party in the last two decades has benefited from “big wave” elections to win control of the House of Representatives – the Republicans in 1994, the Democrats in 2006 and 2008, when they turned a distinct minority in the House into a solid majority. Whether 2010 will be another such historic election that restores the GOP to House control will depend on what happens in the next seven months – voter reaction to health care reform and other Obama administration initiatives, the state of national security and the ongoing wars in the Middle East, and most importantly, the progress made in reviving the struggling economy. The Republicans in 1994 and the Democrats in the general elections of 2006-8 each gained more than 50 House seats, with victories that were both nationwide in scope and more dependent on ousting large numbers of the other party’s incumbents than winning open seats. That is not often the case in quieter election years, when action is frequently focused on open seats and only a few scattered incumbents face voter rejection. But in the volatile atmosphere of “big wave” elections, incumbents can be swept away in large numbers. In 1994 and again in the

Looking back at last Sunday’s House vote on health care reform, it is crystal clear that the party leanings of congressional districts, not just the party identification of the congressmen, influenced the final tally. Currently, there are 46 Democrats in the House who represent districts won by John McCain in 2008. Even as the bill passed with wide Democratic support, those 46 “divided district” Democrats actually opposed it by a 26-20 vote margin. Among the congressmen who represent districts Obama won, however, health care passed by a huge margin, 199-8. Republicans will likely concentrate their fire on the “tenuous twenty” Democrats who voted for health care but hail from Republican districts. Already, Sarah Palin has announced a plan to target them with fundraising appeals and even visits to their districts. These Democrats will be seen as low-hanging fruit by Republicans of all stripes who are eager to pick up a large number of seats in this year when the national political winds seem to be blowing in their direction. The Tenuous Twenty The GOP will find stiff resistance, however, as they try to take down several of the “yes” voters who have long histories in their districts, despite the Republican

AR-1 (OPEN-D): This seat being vacated by Democrat Marion Berry is in Republican territory, but a rare recruiting strike-out for Republicans this cycle now gives Democrats a better-than-even chance at retaining the seat. The Crystal Ball now rates the seat as Leans D. MA-10 (OPEN-D): This week marked the end of the worst kept secret in Massachusetts since Tom Brady and Gisele’s wedding. Seven-term Democrat Bill Delahunt finally announced his retirement, only after Joseph Kennedy III stated he would not seek the seat when Delahunt leaves office. The territory is usually hospitable to Democrats and there are plenty of Democratic officeholders in the area from which to recruit a formidable candidate, but Scott Brown’s impressive showing in the district and a political environment described as “volatile” by local Democrats could threaten their hold on the seat. Pending a final field of candidates on both sides, the Crystal Ball puts this race in the Leans D column. NY-29 (OPEN-D): Oh boy, where to start? Democrat Eric Massa grabbed headlines by announcing his retirement, citing a recurrence of cancer. Soon after, allegations of sexual harassment emerged. Massa admitted to “salty language” but denied anything further although he resigned, claiming he was being

Just about everyone agrees that Republicans will be gaining a sizeable number of U.S. House seats come November, but this far in advance, few agree on the exact number. We’ve seen a couple of dozen predictions so far, and the range is from +10 GOP to +50 GOP—quite a spread. To our knowledge, the Crystal Ball is the only predictive organization that uses two different methods for its prognostications. We carefully examine the 435 districts individually, and make an estimate of the outcome for each seat (using polling, past election results, elite opinion in the district, and so on). Last week we published our current estimate of GOP gains from this method: +27 seats. This week we employ the other method, statistical regression analysis that uses variables such as the president’s Gallup Poll rating and the basic facts of the election. The author is Prof. Alan Abramowitz of Emory University, a frequent contributor to the Crystal Ball and one of the nation’s most distinguished political scientists. Prof. Abramowitz’s model for the 2010 House midterm election has been perhaps the most accurate of all political science models in projecting past midterm elections. As Prof. Abramowitz explains, the key variables in the

It has only been a week since the Crystal Ball published our most recent comprehensive view of House races across the country, but political news abhors a vacuum and there already many new developments to report. All nine ratings changes this week benefit Republicans, further evidence of the many advantages they face across the country at this time. The Crystal Ball moves five Democratic seats from a “safe” rating onto our list of competitive races: KY-6 (Ben Chandler), MA-10 (Bill Delahunt), OH-13 (Betty Sutton), SC-5 (John Spratt), and VA-9 (Rick Boucher). In addition, two already competitive races for Democrats look even worse than before—IA-3 (Leonard Boswell) and IN-8 (OPEN, Brad Ellsworth)—and two Republican incumbents have improved their reelection prospects—AL-3 (Mike Rogers) and CA-44 (Ken Calvert). With filing deadlines and primaries rapidly approaching in some states, we also present a House calendar so our readers can stay one step ahead of the next big news. You can find it on our website by clicking here. AL-3 (Mike Rogers-R) Rating Change: Likely R to Safe R Alabama Republican Mike Rogers faces a repeat challenger in 2010, facing off against 2008 foe, Democrat Josh Segall. While Segall held Rogers to just 53% of

The last two U.S. House of Representatives elections have been Democratic landslides that have left them with a 79-seat majority. In 2006, Democrats picked up 29 seats on election night (exactly as the Crystal Ball predicted, by the way) and didn’t lose a single seat of their own, even adding another pick-up in a December runoff. The winning streak continued in 2008, with Democrats netting 21 new seats in what was a Blue year across the board. A month and a half into the midterm year of 2010, already Republicans can feel the tide turning. The electoral disasters of 2006 and 2008, due to the toxic unpopularity of George W. Bush and the war in Iraq, represented the dark ages for the GOP, but now they sense a Republican Renaissance in 2010. Some pundits are already predicting the GOP could even take back the House, which would require a net gain of 40 seats this November. To put that into perspective, in the past sixty years there have been thirty House elections, but only four have resulted in either party gaining 40 seats or more. In fact, over the past thirty-five years (and sixteen House elections), only once has either

Congress is very unpopular. Like President Obama, Congress has seen its approval rating decline in recent months. But Congress is a good deal less popular than the President. According to the Gallup Poll, Mr. Obama’s approval rating has been hovering in the vicinity of 50% recently but in December only 25% of Americans approved of the job that the 111th Congress was doing. That was a little better than the 19% that approved of the job that the 110th Congress was doing in January of 2009 but quite a bit worse than the 39% that approved in March of 2009 which was the high point for the 111th Congress. Low approval ratings are nothing new for Congress. According to Gallup, the last time Congress enjoyed an approval rating of 50% or higher was in June of 2003. That was back when Congress and President Bush were still benefiting from the rally effect produced by the 9-11 terror attacks. In fact, since 1974, Congress has received an approval rating of 50% or higher only 29 of the 199 times the public has been asked about its performance in the Gallup Poll and a majority of those positive ratings occurred during the

The Crystal Ball moves PA-12 to “toss-up” following the passing of long-time Representative John Murtha. The vacancy sets up what will be the most hotly contested House special election since the NY-23 race last November. In a further parallel with the NY-23 special election, both party nominees will be chosen by party committees, instead of by a primary or convention. Both sides will need to tread carefully in a political environment where top-down decision making is unpalatable to many voters. While there were already Democratic and Republican candidates in the race prior to Murtha’s death, now that the race will be for an open seat many new candidates will likely throw their hats into the ring. The special election will be a test of whether Republicans can successfully build off their current national momentum and take a legitimate swing district (it was the only congressional district in the nation to vote for Kerry in 2004 and McCain in 2008) or whether Democrats will continue their impressive streak of House special election victories, now numbering nine since May 2008. With Vern Ehlers’ retirement announcement yesterday, Republicans lost their 17th incumbent this cycle (compared to just 11 retiring Democrats). Ehlers’ MI-03 seat,

Once every decade–in years that end in zero–true political junkies get to spend an entire year basking in the glow of the national campaign over redistricting. For them, it’s like the Super Bowl, March Madness, the World Series, and the Daytona 500 all wrapped up in one, but spread out over dozens of key states. In anticipation of the constitutionally-mandated redistricting that takes place the following year, Republicans and Democrats go to war over key governors’ mansions and targeted state legislative seats, working both offense and defense to shut out their opponents where possible, and grab a seat at the table where necessary. From command bunkers in Washington, DC and in the state capitals, campaign resources (money, manpower, and media) are directed in highly targeted fashion, all with a view to gaining an edge here or a foothold there. Gaining an edge here or a foothold there can translate into winning or losing congressional seats for a decade. The ability to draw the lines bounding a state’s congressional districts is the ability to influence the composition of that state’s congressional delegation; and because states tend to do redistricting just once per decade (though most states have no law preventing more

Recent announcements by four Democratic incumbents from marginal or Republican-leaning districts that they will not run for reelection next year have set off a wave of speculation by pundits and strategists over whether a wave of such retirements could put Democrats in serious danger of losing control of the House of Representatives in the 2010 midterm elections. In the wake of the recent retirements, the National Journal’s Charlie Cook observed, “this business of whether the GOP can or will capture a majority next year is based on a lot of moving parts, but one of the most critical is Democratic retirements in tough districts.” Texas Representative Pete Sessions, the chair of the National Republican Congressional Committee, went even further and claimed, “Democrats are beginning to see the writing on the wall, and instead of choosing to fight in a difficult political environment, they are taking a pass and opting for retirement.” Such speculation seems a bit premature given that no wave of Democratic retirements is evident thus far: to date only eleven House Democrats have announced their retirements compared with twelve Republicans and that the numbers of potentially vulnerable open seats in each party appear to be very similar. More

How does a group where the majority of members voted in favor of health care reform get in the liberals’ doghouse? Just ask the Blue Dog Democrats. The Blue Dogs are a coalition of 52 fiscally conservative U.S. House members who have made headlines for their ardent negotiations with House Speaker Nancy Pelosi. Although more than half of the Blue Dogs voted for the initial House health care bill, the coalition still provided 24 of the 39 Democratic “no” votes, cementing their place on the liberal naughty list. The Blue Dogs moniker itself is a play on old Southern Democrats who called themselves “yellow dogs,” since they would even vote for a yellow dog, so long as it was a Democrat. The Blue Dog Coalition, however, stresses ideology and policy over party label. They chose their name to emphasize their view that the moderate and conservative wings of the Democratic Party had been “choked blue” leading up to 1994, when they were founded. In the media, there has been a lot of confusion and misinformation about these key players on Capitol Hill who have played a central role, and will continue to, in the health care reform debate. To better

When the Democrats lost control of Congress in 1994, few political pundits saw it coming. But such a prospect in 2010, particularly a GOP takeover of the House of Representatives, is already being discussed as a real prospect. In 1994, Republicans gained more than 50 seats to win control of the House. Currently, their “magic number” stands at 41, which is the difference between their present total of 177 and the required majority of 218. An obvious target for the GOP in fashioning a comeback would be seats that they recently held–namely, those lost in the Democratic surges of 2006 and 2008. In the last two election cycles, Democrats scored a net gain of 55 House seats–consolidating their grip in the Northeast, while expanding their beachheads in the nation’s heartland. Most of their gains were made in three distinct parts of the country–the Republican-leaning South, the increasingly competitive Mountain West, and the battleground states of the industrial Midwest. As a result, these newly minted Democratic seats are in large part in competitive, even difficult, terrain. Roughly three-fourths of the districts (42) voted Republican for president in at least one of the last two elections. Twenty-one districts voted for the GOP

Could Democrats be heading toward an electoral disaster comparable to the 1994 midterm election in which they lost 54 House seats and 8 Senate seats, turning control of both chambers over to Republicans for the remainder of Bill Clinton’s presidency? Nobody is predicting such a dramatic turnaround in party fortunes just yet. But while a Senate majority appears to be out of reach, some GOP strategists now see a chance for their party to regain control of the House of Representatives in next year’s midterm election. And they’re not alone. In a recent column, Charlie Cook of The National Journal, one of the nation’s well-known and respected political analysts, warned that President Obama’s sinking poll numbers along with growing resistance among voters to the President’s policies and a painfully slow economic recovery could lead to massive Democratic losses next year. The fact that Democrats are struggling to pass a major overhaul of the nation’s health care system just as they were in 1994 is also contributing to the feeling of “deja vu all over again” among many party leaders and supporters. But while there are some important similarities between the current political situation and the circumstances that preceded the 1994