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2010 House

Sabato's Crystal Ball

SIXTY DAYS TO GO

For decades I’ve advised students to let the facts speak for themselves, while avoiding the indulgence of shouting at the facts. In other words, we should take in all the available, reliable information; process it; and let the emerging mosaic tell its story—whether the picture pleases or not. The human (and partisan) tendency to twist facts into pretzels in order to produce a desired result must be avoided at all costs. We’ve been patient and cautious here at the Crystal Ball as a year’s worth of facts has accumulated. We’ve sifted the polls, cranked up the models, and watched the candidates and campaigns closely. All political observers have “gut feelings” about an election year, but feelings make for good songs and lousy predictions. Forecasting is an imprecise art. People who get too far ahead of the facts or are too insistent about what will happen are usually partisans—openly or in disguise. The Crystal Ball’s predictions are clinical. We are fond of people in both parties. We cheer for no one. 2010 was always going to be a Republican year, in the midterm tradition. It has simply been a question of degree. Several scenarios were possible, depending in large measure on

Larry J. Sabato

Incumbent Defeats By The Numbers

At the Crystal Ball we receive many requests for information about the history of congressional elections, and there are many ways to look at this topic. In the two simple bar graphs below, we present one way to conceptualize a key part of the contests for Congress. How many incumbents lose for the House and the Senate? In most years—both presidential and midterm—incumbents do remarkably well, and just a handful lose their seats in the general election. But a few years bring congressional slaughters, relatively speaking: 1974, 1980, 1982, 1994, and 2006 are the most prominent since the late 1960s. One party or the other suffers more in any given year, as the pendulum of public opinion swings back and forth. Will 2010 be added to the “slaughter years”? The general election is a couple months away, but the odds are good that the bar lines in this graph will reach reasonably high after November 2. House Incumbent Defeats, 1968-2008 Senate Incumbent Defeats, 1968-2008 Compiled by Joe Figueroa, U.Va. Center for Politics

Larry J. Sabato

PLAYING DEFENSE IN A RECESSION

The political scene is not a pretty one: A new president facing his first midterm election with declining approval ratings as his party struggles to keep the upper hand in Congress – all in the midst of a darkened political environment where the unemployment rate hovers around 10%. It is a description, however, of both past and present. In short, we have been here before. Prior to Barack Obama and the Democrats, Ronald Reagan and the Republicans faced a similar challenge in the midterm election of 1982, weathering the situation about as well as they could. The GOP dropped 26 seats in the House (a result the Democrats’ would probably accept now, no questions asked) while adding one seat to their Senate majority. It was in the states that Republicans took their biggest hit in 1982, losing eight governorships from their total in 1980. But a Democratic landslide was averted that could have put a stop to the “Reagan Revolution” before it was barely underway. How did it happen? For one thing, the Republicans had good candidates and plenty of resources ready to drop into the closest races. Writing on the eve of the 1982 election, Alan Ehrenhalt, the political

Rhodes Cook

Republicans’ Regional Recipe

With a dozen weeks to go before the 2010 midterm elections, speculation is rising about the possibility of the Republicans retaking the House. On Sunday, that speculation rose to a fevered pitch when White House press secretary Robert Gibbs conceded during a Meet The Press appearance that there are enough House seats “in play” this November to put control of the chamber at risk. The following morning, using 1994 as a baseline of comparison, MSNBC’s “First Read” summarized four factors that suggest a GOP takeover, and four that do not. Among the four favorables, just one was regional or geographic in nature: “Much of the House battleground will play in white/rural districts, where [Barack] Obama isn’t performing well.” It’s true that Democrats are defending few urban or majority-minority districts. In fact, despite facing strong political headwinds this year Democrats may actually flip three such districts into their column (Louisiana 2, Hawaii 1, and Delaware’s at-large seat). And yet, amid the spate of analyses comparing the political environments of 1994 and 2010—the Crystal Ball’s own Alan Abramowitz and Rhodes Cook have debated the similarities and differences—none has examined how the geographic distribution of the Democrats’ 1994 House majority compares to their

Thomas F. Schaller

Midterm Morsels: House Ratings Changes

While many people spent the July 4th weekend cooling off at the beach, the summer heat is still being felt in a number of marquee House matchups. As a result a few ratings changes are in order, as we explain below. As always you can visit the Crystal Ball website anytime for a complete chart of all competitive House races. SD-AL (Toss-up, from Leans D): “It’s not you, it’s me.” That is the line Republican nominee Kristi Noem should deliver to Democratic Rep. Stephanie Herseth Sandlin. Herseth Sandlin is still personally popular in the state which sent her back to Congress in 2006 and 2008 with over two-thirds of the vote, but unlike in past years Republicans now have the wind at their backs and a candidate who can blunt many of Herseth Sandlin’s advantages. Democrats have long touted their congresswoman here as a rising star, but Republicans feel they have found one of their own as well. Noem will have the money, the biography, and the national profile to compete in a Republican state in a Republican year. That dynamic takes this race out of the Leans Democratic column and makes it a Toss-up. NC-2 (Likely D, from Safe

Isaac Wood

FOR HOUSE DEMOCRATS: MORE FAVORABLE TERRAIN THAN ‘94

Editor’s Note: Following last week’s article by Prof. Alan Abramowitz comparing 1994 and 2010 on the basis of open seat races, noted political author and Wall Street Journal online columnist Rhodes Cook delves into the differences between the “political terrain” of 1994 and that facing Democrats today. His smart commentary and scholarly analysis serves as a call to look beneath the surface and he offers a much-needed glimpse at the partisan and regional factors which will make or break this year for both political parties. Those who want to see exactly where Republicans and Democrats will be fighting hardest, and why, will find this piece a definite must-read.– Larry J. Sabato When the Democrats lost control of the House of Representatives in 1994, one of their main problems was the political terrain on which they had to fight. While many political observers find the present electoral environment to be eerily similar with that of 1994, not nearly as many House Democrats are as exposed as they were then. Fully half of the Democratic seats in that strongly anti-incumbent, anti-Democratic election 16 years ago were in districts that had voted for the Republican presidential ticket in one or both of the

Rhodes Cook

Midterm Morsels: House

While this week’s House primaries and runoffs could not match the June 8th contests in sheer number, they made up for it in drama, intrigue, and good old fashioned controversy. Here are five quick takes from the most interesting of those races that were on the ballot Tuesday. SC-1: Oh the times, they are a-changing. After state legislator Tim Scott captured 31% of the vote in a nine-way primary, he handily defeated Paul Thurmond (the son of former segregationist presidential candidate and long-time Senator Strom Thurmond) in a runoff, winning over two-thirds of the vote. Scott should cruise to victory in this open seat race against Democratic nominee Ben Frasier, which would make Scott the only African-American on the Republican side of the aisle in Congress, and the first black GOP congressman since 2003. Democrats claim that this district is trending their way, pointing to a close 52%-48% race in 2008, but this is simply not their year nor their preferred candidate. SC-4: The latest incumbent to lose his primary bid for re-nomination is Bob Inglis, who was done in by prosecutor Trey Gowdy, losing the runoff 71%-29% in an embarrassing rejection of a sitting member of Congress. The GOP

Isaac Wood

Can Republicans Take Back the House?

Editor’s Note: These days the best D.C. parlor game is guessing November’s House results. We’ve recently made our own contribution, with a district-by-district analysis that projects—as of early June—a Republican net gain of 32 seats. But the Crystal Ball has always done House projections in two ways. The second method requires advanced statistical modeling of the sort Professor Alan Abramowitz provides in this week’s Crystal Ball. Prof. Abramowitz’s record has been superb in election prognostication, and his analysis shows a GOP gain of 39 House seats—precisely the number needed to take control. There is not much difference between 32 and 39 in a June forecast. Both methods will be tweaked as we enter late summer and early fall. There are two reasonable conclusions to draw from these numbers. First, whether they gain 25 or 32 or 39 or 50 seats on November 2, Republicans are headed for a good midterm year, though it is very unlikely to match the over-the-top prognostications of some GOP leaders (who have gone as far as +70 to 100 or more seats). Second, Republican control of the House is on the bubble. Events over the next four months, reflected in President Obama’s approval rating in

Alan I. Abramowitz

House Primary Update

Tuesday night was a big night for some key U.S. House primaries, especially on the GOP side. Read on for a summary of the results and situation in the most important districts where nominations where decided last night: VA-02: In spite of all the talk of an anti-establishment primary season, the clear establishment candidate emerged victorious here Tuesday night. Car dealer Scott Rigell, who was endorsed by Governor Bob McDonnell among others, defeated Tea Party-endorsed Ben Loyola by a 39%-27% margin, with four other candidates splitting the remainder of the vote. Rigell was the desired candidate of the national party which now finds itself in a very competitive toss-up race against freshman Democrat Glenn Nye. VA-05: Another Virginia race and another establishment win as state senator Robert Hurt bested a primary field of seven with nearly 50% of the vote. Despite several active Tea Party organizations which were lukewarm to Hurt and his high profile 2004 budget vote which raised taxes, no other candidate emerged as the clear anti-Hurt candidate. Looking ahead to November, Hurt must coalesce the support of the GOP primary also-rans, especially since there will be a conservative Independent on the ballot. Complicating Hurt’s task is Jim

Isaac Wood

MAY HOUSE UPDATE

Like many beleaguered sports fans, as the calendar turned to 2010, Republicans across the country were conjuring up the same thought: “This is the year!” After disastrous House elections in 2006 and 2008, Republicans dropped from their high-water mark of 232 House seats—their largest total since 1949—to just 178—their lowest total in a decade and a half. This precipitous decline brought considerable frustration to the new minority party. 2010 appeared to offer the chance for historic rebirth—and in many ways it still does. The real question of this midterm election is not whether a Republican tide is imminent, but how high it will be. From 1938 onwards, in only two of eighteen midterm elections (1998 and 2002) has the party shut out of the White House failed to gain House seats. With so many seats to defend, and dozens of them in Republican-leaning districts, Democrats have obvious, substantial disadvantages this year. However, the sizeable Democratic majority in Congress is not only a sign of opportunity for the GOP but a bulwark for Democrats. Even after winning a House special election in Hawaii’s 1st District to pick up a new seat last week, Republicans still need a net gain of 39

Isaac Wood

The Myth of the Angry Voter

The voters are mad as hell, and they’re not going to take it anymore. In the wake of last week’s primaries, that is the conventional wisdom about the 2010 midterm elections among the Washington commentariat. Congressional incumbents of both parties are facing grave danger, the argument goes, as angry voters prepare to exact revenge at the polls. This view of the midterms rests on three dubious claims. According to the political experts, public discontent is greater than at any time in recent memory, this discontent poses a serious threat to incumbents in primary elections, and the results of these primary races foretell far bigger problems for incumbents in November. On closer inspection, however, none of these claims holds up. First, though most Americans are not happy with the country’s condition, the level of discontent is not extraordinary compared with other recent election years. Consider 1968 (Vietnam), 1974 (Watergate), 1980 (U.S. hostages in Iran), 1982 and 1992 (recession), 1994 (Bill Clinton’s woes) and 2006 and 2008 (George W. Bush fatigue). Second, the number of congressional incumbents facing serious primary challenges is not exceptionally high, and incumbent defeats have more likely been the result of special circumstances. Third, there is little relationship

Alan I. Abramowitz and Larry J. Sabato

Health Care as an Issue in the Midterm Election

Since the passage of the Democratic health care reform bill in March, congressional Republicans have been promising to turn the 2010 midterm election into a referendum on the new law. Party leaders including House Minority Leader John Boehner and Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell have argued that campaigning for repeal of health care reform will help Republicans pick up enough additional seats to win back control of the House and Senate. On the other side, Democratic leaders and strategists have been urging their party’s candidates to vigorously defend the new law and to use the threat of repeal to energize the Democratic base. All of this begs the question, however, of whether health care reform has the potential to influence enough voters to affect the results of the House and Senate elections. In this article I examine the potential influence of health care reform as an issue in the 2010 midterm election. We know that the most important influence on voter decision-making in congressional elections is party identification. Over 90% of voters identify with or lean toward a party and in recent years the vast majority of party identifiers, including the vast majority of independents who lean towards a party,

Alan I. Abramowitz

STOPPING THE STREAK

The last time a Democrat lost a special election for a U.S. House seat, George W. Bush was still president and gas was almost $4 a gallon. It was way back on May 3, 2008 when Hillary Clinton was still battling Barack Obama tooth-and-nail for the Democratic presidential nomination. Even though Democrats lost that special election, when Republican Steve Scalise succeeded the new Louisiana Governor Bobby Jindal in Louisiana’s 1st District, their number of total House seats stayed unchanged since it was held by a Republican to begin with. The last time a Democratic seat was lost in a House special election, George W. Bush had only been an office for five months. The Democratic Winning Streak: Race by Race The Democratic winning streak in all House special elections now stands at ten, with Democrats picking up three new House seats during the two years their streak has been alive. Democrats’ special election success actually predates the current winning streak. Looking back over the last decade, in fact, Democrats have gained six new House seats in special elections and surrendered only one, their June 19, 2001 loss in Virginia’s 4th District where Republican Randy Forbes replaced Democrat Norman Sisisky, who

Isaac Wood

WI-7: David Obey’s Departure

David Obey’s retirement announcement reshuffles the House deck for both parties. Democrats are scrambling to ensure other veteran Democrats do not follow suit, after thinking that the retirement tide had been stemmed. For Republicans the odds of a House majority do not look quite as long now that one of Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s key allies has sidestepped a November reelection battle. As for the WI-7 race, Republicans were always high on their candidate, Sean Duffy. Now they believe the former Real World star and current district attorney has at least an even-money chance to win the seat. The NRCC has already stressed their continuing support for the first-time congressional candidate, indicating that they are unlikely to try to recruit a new candidate over his head even with the stark change in circumstances. Duffy has already raised significant amounts of money and now he will not have to pit his war chest against Obey’s significant cache. Instead, Duffy will have the fundraising head start and an edge as the more seasoned congressional candidate, if only by a matter of months. For Democrats, this race is certainly still winnable. In an election cycle where retirements have doomed Democratic chances at more than

Isaac Wood

MIDTERMS PAST: THE ’66 PARALLEL

For months now, this election has been compared to that of 1994, when Republicans scored huge gains and won both houses of Congress. It is a decent model. But given the recent passage of health care reform – something that did not happen in ’94 – this might be a good occasion to look at another midterm election for instruction, that of 1966. As now, it was a time of bold presidential initiatives buttressed by large Democratic majorities on both sides of Capitol Hill. A plethora of liberal domestic legislation was enacted, featuring the primary health care reform of the age, Medicare (government-run medical care for the elderly), which was passed in 1965. But the mid-1960s was also a period of growing unrest – with an economy going off the tracks, an overseas war that was escalating, and a president whose approval rating was sinking after starting around 70% at the time of his inauguration. Republicans scored large gains across the country in the midterm election of 1966. They were not enough to win control of either house of Congress. But the GOP comeback did restore the Republican “brand” – badly tarnished by Arizona Sen. Barry Goldwater’s landslide loss in

Rhodes Cook