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2012 Senate

Sabato's Crystal Ball

SENATE UPDATE: REPUBLICAN PRIMARY POTHOLES?

Coverage of the race for the Senate has, rightfully and unsurprisingly given the seats in play this cycle, focused on the 23 Democratic-held Senate seats being contested this fall, as opposed to the 10 Republican-held seats. With so many targets, Republicans have many opportunities to go on offense, with seemingly few places to play defense. But there are some warning signs for Republicans, and GOP leadership might remember some advice that Admiral Greer (James Earl Jones) gave Jack Ryan (Harrison Ford) in the classic Clear and Present Danger: “Watch your back, Jack.” Indeed, even if Republicans can pick up some Democratic-held seats, their chances at a Senate majority could falter if they lose a seat or two where they’re currently favored. The candidates matter Part of the Republicans’ problem is a common one in this anti-establishment era: candidate selection. Primary results have already turned one super safe seat — Indiana — into a potentially competitive one, and might affect other seats where primaries are still pending. Conservative icon William F. Buckley’s advice to Republicans was to vote for the most conservative candidate who can win. As Republicans found out two years ago, ignoring those last three words can lead to

Larry J. Sabato and Kyle Kondik

A Senate that’s fit to be tied? Updating the battle for Congress

Some analysts have been making the case that 2012 is going to turn decisively one way or the other — perhaps evolving into a 2008-style margin for Democrats or Republicans. Maybe they are right, but every objective piece of evidence so far suggests that this election will be quite close and highly competitive for the presidency, Senate and, to perhaps a lesser extent, House. It’s not 2008 anymore. There are contradictory trade winds blowing hard, some lifting President Obama, and others Mitt Romney. Enthusiasm seems restrained for both men in critical parts of the electorate. For Obama, what was a crusade four years ago is a mere campaign today. Governing realities and a stubbornly slow economic recovery have tempered the heady expectations that powered Obama to a decisive win. “Hope and change” has become a rote movement “Forward” without an obvious destination. For Romney, few are under any illusions that he has a magic elixir to solve the protracted problems the nation faces. Given his breathtaking ideological evolution over the years, many in his own party base are unsure what he will actually do on many issues, should he be elected. Perhaps we’re heading toward another 2000 or 2004-style election:

Larry J. Sabato and Kyle Kondik

The Early Outlook for the 2012 Congressional Elections: A Forecasting Perspective

In today’s Crystal Ball, Alan Abramowitz — whose election models are among the best in the business — provides an early look at what they tell us about the race for the House and the Senate. We suspect that these models are a little pessimistic for Democrats at this early point, although we agree with Alan’s conclusion, which is that Republicans are in strong position to keep control of the House and that they should at the very least cut into the Democrats’ 53-47 edge in the Senate. Forecasting models are an important tool in helping to predict elections, but they are not the only tool the Crystal Ball uses. A holistic approach — using polling, models, and race-by-race evaluations — gives a fuller picture, and this is how we traditionally make our projections as Election Day approaches. A relatively simple model incorporating four predictors — the number of seats the Republican Party holds going into an election, whether it is a presidential or midterm election year, the net approval rating of the incumbent president, and the standing of the parties on the generic congressional ballot — can be used to forecast the seat swing in House and Senate elections

Alan I. Abramowitz

TILTING THE TOSS UPS – The eight races that will decide the Senate

Ah, the Senate. The battle for control fascinates us — and all election observers — because there are so many intriguing races and personalities. Yet, as we update our ratings today and move in a new direction on Congress’ upper chamber, it is worth stressing at the outset that no party will truly control the Senate come January 2013. There is no chance at all that Democrats or Republicans will hit the magic 60 seats required to break filibusters and thus run the Senate. Increasingly, it looks likely that the winning party will have a smaller majority than the Democrats do now (53 seats) — if there is a majority at all. The tiny margin for the winning party will enable the new Senate to do what Senates do best: a whole lot of nothing (discounting talk, of course). As election analysts, we aren’t responsible for anything the Senate does, or fails to do, in governing. We’ll stick to the fun part, coming in November, and we’ll start with Maine. Ever since the surprising retirement of Maine Sen. Olympia Snowe (R), Senate observers have focused intently on the race to replace her. But while the likely three-way race is certain

Larry J. Sabato, Kyle Kondik, and Geoffrey Skelley

Notes on the State of Politics

So much for that anti-incumbent wave Last week’s primary loss by Rep. Jean Schmidt, a southwest Ohio Republican, ginned up curiosity in Tuesday night’s congressional primaries in Alabama and Mississippi, where several House incumbents were supposedly in danger of losing their primaries. That list included powerful House Financial Services Committee Chairman Spencer Bachus (R) of Alabama. That said, all 11 House incumbents in Mississippi and Alabama (nine Republicans and two Democrats) were renominated on Tuesday, and none of their races was particularly close. Even in a time of widespread discontent with Congress, it’s unwise at this point to predict that many House incumbents will fail to be renominated by their own parties. In the post-World War II era, 1992 featured the greatest number of House incumbents defeated in primaries: 19 out of 368 members who sought reelection to the House lost in a primary. In other words, even in a supposedly bad year for incumbents, primary voters in 95% of contests that year were happy to give their incumbents a shot at another term. And that was a redistricting year, just like this year, which always complicates House elections because of map changes and added or subtracted seats. Will more

UVA Center for Politics

Snowepocalypse greatly harms Republican chances of Senate takeover

And just when we thought we weren’t going to have any big Snowe storms this year, the decision by… Eh, enough with the Snowe puns. Sen. Olympia Snowe (R-ME) shockingly announced her retirement on Tuesday night, which greatly frustrates Republican efforts to win back the Senate. This was a race that Snowe almost certainly would have won: She and her moderate Republican colleague, Sen. Susan Collins, are institutions not only in the U.S. Senate, but also in the Pine Tree State. Despite grumbles to her left and right, Snowe would have been very difficult to defeat in a primary or general election. We previously rated Maine’s Senate race as “likely Republican” — now, without knowing for sure who will run, we’re swinging the state to LEANS DEMOCRATIC. Maine is a heavily Democratic state at the presidential level — it went for President Obama by 17 points in 2008 — and in this polarized era, we would expect the state’s blue tint to trickle down to its open Senate seat. The top candidates for the Democrats would likely be one of the state’s two House representatives, Chellie Pingree or Mike Michaud, and former two-term Gov. John Baldacci is also weighing a

UVA Center for Politics

Notes on the State of Politics

Ben Nelson and the Senate calculus Sen. Ben Nelson’s (D-NE) decision to retire makes a Republican takeover of the Senate a little more likely, but just a little more. It does not dramatically change the Senate landscape. Why? Because Nelson could easily have lost if he ran again. Still, out of deference to the powers of incumbency, we had previously kept Nebraska as a toss up. Now that Nelson has retired, we have switched our rating in this race to LIKELY REPUBLICAN, and that could become “safe” eventually. It appears that the only big-name Democrat who could make this a race is former Sen. Bob Kerrey, but we’ll be surprised if he runs. Apparently, the remaining Democratic bench consists of various mayors and state legislators who would have a steep uphill climb to victory. In any event, the Republican nominee for president is likely to get 60% or more of the vote in Nebraska, which will make it very difficult for the Democratic candidate. This is a polarized, highly partisan era, very different than the one that nurtured such Nebraska Democratic U.S. senators as Kerrey, Nelson, Jim Exon and Ed Zorinsky. In 2000 Nelson won a Senate squeaker despite George

UVA Center for Politics

The Anti-Incumbent Election Myth

Congress is very unpopular. In November, according to the Gallup Poll, only 13% of Americans approved of the job that Congress was doing. That tied the record set in October for the lowest approval rating in the history of the Gallup Poll. Moreover, according to another recent Gallup Poll, only 20% of Americans believe that most members of Congress deserve to be reelected. That’s the lowest percentage in the 19 years that Gallup has been asking this question. These sorts of statistics, repeated in poll after poll, have given rise to speculation by some pundits and political observers that large numbers of incumbents in both parties may lose their seats next November as a result of the high level of public dissatisfaction with congressional Democrats and Republicans. Some analysts have even suggested that the anti-incumbent mood could produce an historic triple flip in the 2012 elections with control of both houses of Congress and the presidency all changing hands. If this happened there would be a Republican president along with a Democratic House and a Republican Senate in 2013. OK, time to get back to reality. There has never been a triple flip election and there is not going to

Alan I. Abramowitz

In the race for the Senate, Democrats show signs of life

The Senate’s curious and byzantine rules and traditions are well explained in Robert Caro’s Master of the Senate, part of his sprawling, multi-volume biography of Lyndon B. Johnson (the fourth volume is scheduled to be released next year). Johnson, through his own cunning and ruthlessness, was arguably the most powerful Senate leader ever, as he bent the supposedly uncontrollable upper chamber to his will. In one anecdote from the book, Johnson — characteristically — split the difference between liberals and conservatives in the Senate by ramming through a modest increase in the minimum wage. Johnson got the bill passed by holding a vote when the bill’s biggest opponents — liberals who wanted a bigger increase and conservatives who wanted no increase at all — weren’t on the floor. After the bill passed, one absent senator, Florida Democrat Spessard Holland, raced up to LBJ, demanding to know what happened. “Well, Spessard, I had a little vote. If you fellows aren’t on the job around here, I’ve got legislation to pass,” Johnson said. As the Crystal Ball takes a fresh look at the race for control of the Senate, Republicans, unlike some of their predecessors during that sudden Senate vote in LBJ’s

Larry J. Sabato, Kyle Kondik, and Geoffrey Skelley

NOTES ON THE STATE OF POLITICS

Perry the Pretender Oh how the mighty have… oops. Despite his best efforts to poke fun at his poor performance, Texas Gov. Rick Perry is feeling the consequences of his now infamous gaffe in last Wednesday’s debate.  A recent NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll reported that Perry’s now-meager support dropped from 8% to 4% in the days following the debate. This has led the Crystal Ball staff to downgrade Perry in our 2012 Presidential Possibilities chart. Perry now leads the “Pretenders” category, a dramatic change from his frontrunner status as one of the “Contenders” when he joined the GOP field in August. Meanwhile, other candidates have felt the effects — both positive and negative — of polling shifts in recent days. A CNN/ORC International poll found that among Republicans and independents, 24% would likely vote for Mitt Romney. Newt Gingrich jumped into the No. 2 spot in the poll at 22%. Herman Cain, still recovering from sexual harassment allegations (and trying to figure out his stance on foreign policy, especially in regard to Libya), has fallen precipitously to 14%, a drop of 11% since the October poll. And yet hope remains, at least for Cain. A Bloomberg poll found Cain leading in

UVA Center for Politics

NOTES ON THE STATE OF POLITICS

Ex-Gov. Lingle is underdog in Hawaii Senate race Strange doings are afoot in deep blue Hawaii, where the new Democratic governor, ex-Rep. Neil Abercrombie, is the most unpopular governor in the nation according to one pollster, and the old governor, Republican Linda Lingle, is now mounting a credible bid for the state’s open Senate seat. Democratic firm Public Policy Polling gave Abercrombie, who saw four top staffers resign earlier this month, the dubious distinction after its polling showed his approval at a dismal 30% approval/56% disapproval. That puts him below some of PPP’s other poor performers, such as Govs. Rick Scott (R-FL) and John Kasich (R-OH). Meanwhile, PPP also found that Lingle, reelected handily in heavily Democratic 2006, was only down six points to the front-runner for the Democratic nomination, Rep. Mazie Hirono. Lingle was leading the other contender for the nomination, ex-Rep. Ed Case. Case — whose congressional bid last year against now-Rep. Colleen Hanabusa split the Democratic vote, allowing Republican Charles Djou to briefly hold Hawaii’s First Congressional District after a special election — is deeply disliked by the Aloha State’s Democratic establishment, so Hirono is the preferred candidate. Lingle, who doesn’t shy away from being called a

UVA Center for Politics

NOTES ON THE STATE OF POLITICS

Fight night in Nevada Tuesday night’s Western Republican debate in Las Vegas was probably the most entertaining of the season, mostly because the top contenders — Mitt Romney, Rick Perry and Herman Cain — all took some major hits. Romney, who has been the clear winner of most of these debates, probably still won this one, although he flashed his temper in a heated exchange with Perry and made a rare gaffe: In explaining away an attack made on him by Perry that he had hired illegal immigrants to tend to his yard, he said, “So we went to the company and we said, look, you can’t have any illegals working on our property. I’m running for office, for Pete’s sake, I can’t have illegals.” Right he is, although such an admission certainly does little to mask one of Romney’s critics’ best arguments, which is that he’s an overly image-cautious candidate who does things not out of conviction, but rather to make sure he looks the part of a conservative Republican. Perry woke from his slumber, but he needs more than marginal performances at this point. While we believe Cain’s bubble will burst, Wednesday morning brought fresh news of his

UVA Center for Politics

IS THE SENATE THE REPUBLICANS’ TO LOSE?

The recent decision by ex-Sen. Russ Feingold (D-WI) not to seek the seat of his retiring colleague, Democratic Sen. Herb Kohl, was a big moment for Republicans because it gave them yet another clean shot at a Democratic-held Senate seat. Feingold, still popular despite his reelection loss last year, would have been a favored quasi-incumbent had he run. Instead, his decision is just another piece of miserable news for Democrats in this cycle’s race for the Senate. Remember, there are 23 Democratic-held Senate seats up for grabs this year, versus only 10 Republican-held seats. Realistically, only two of those 10 Republicans seats will be competitive next year: Nevada, a purple state where appointed Republican Sen. Dean Heller faces a tough challenge from Democratic Rep. Shelley Berkley; and Massachusetts, a deep Blue state where Republican Sen. Scott Brown will try to hold on against an as-yet unknown Democratic challenger. Both Republicans are vulnerable, but favored. Meanwhile, Republicans have plenty of chances to gain the four seats they need to guarantee them control of the Senate next year. We break down their pickup chances in Chart 1. Chart 1: Democratic-held Senate seats, ranked by likelihood of Republican takeover Put another way, of

Larry J. Sabato and Kyle Kondik

“Safe” to Vote No: Analyzing the Debt Ceiling Vote

What a week it has been! As the political world recovers from its deep exhaustion and wonders about the fallout from the debt ceiling deal, it’s worth taking a step back. First, let’s all remember that 15 months from now, when Americans go to the polls to vote for president and Congress, this summer storm—intense squall though it was—will have been superseded by other tempests. In November 2012, voters will probably be focused on the moribund economy, not the debt. Almost lost in the shuffle of the last week’s real or manufactured crisis was the sobering news that the United States’ gross domestic product grew only at a paltry 1.3% clip in the second quarter. The first quarter was downgraded to a truly miserable 0.4% growth rate. President Obama needs that number to be close to 3%, if not higher, to achieve a comfortable reelection.  If the economy doesn’t pick up soon, Obama’s once-bright prospects for reelection could be history, along with his White House tenure—assuming, of course, Republicans nominate a mainstream candidate that can appeal to swing voters and appears to be a credible possible occupant of the Oval Office. Sen. Bernie Sanders of Vermont, the independent-Democratic liberal, has

Larry J. Sabato, Isaac Wood and Kyle Kondik

Fundraising: Much Ado Over Not All That Much

Former Louisiana Gov. Buddy Roemer is expected to officially launch his presidential campaign today. His announcement again tests the famous philosophical question: If a tree falls in a forest and no one is around to hear it, does it make a sound? Roemer, who the Crystal Ball has ranked dead last among 12 potential presidential contenders, won’t win the Republican nomination for many reasons, but let’s just cherry-pick one: He only raised $41,000 in the last quarter, which wouldn’t be much for a House race, let alone the top job in the country. Roemer has campaigned on not accepting “PAC money” and he has limited individual contributions to $100. Obviously, someone who is as unknown as Roemer needs at least some money if he’s going to make noise in the polls. But even if he had millions upon millions to spend, could he actually win? Of course not. It doesn’t take a political science doctorate to discern that Roemer, who finished third in his gubernatorial reelection bid behind former Ku Klux Klan leader David Duke and then-future convict Edwin Edwards in 1991, is not an impressive candidate. Fundraising alone doesn’t make bad candidates good, nor does it automatically neutralize the

Kyle Kondik