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2020 Governor

Sabato's Crystal Ball

Shades of Alabama in Louisiana’s Gubernatorial Runoff

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — In his narrow reelection win on Saturday, Gov. John Bel Edwards (D-LA) replicated some of the voting patterns displayed in Sen. Doug Jones’ (D-AL) special election victory two years ago. — Both Edwards and Jones won statewide races despite each carrying only a single congressional district apiece. How John Bel Edwards won a second term For political junkies, the main event of last weekend’s Bayou State festivities was the closely fought gubernatorial runoff, where Gov. John Bel Edwards (D) held on against wealthy businessman Eddie Rispone (R). The president invested substantial political capital in this race, notably holding three campaign rallies in the state since October. Coming on the heels of a rebuff in Kentucky’s gubernatorial contest earlier this month, where he rallied for the now-ousted Gov. Matt Bevin (R), the pair of races, taken together, show the limitations of the president’s endorsement. Still, while these gubernatorial contests are certainly setbacks for the president in the short-term, the Crystal Ball keeps both Kentucky and Louisiana safely in the red column for him in 2020. The contours of Edwards’ triumph line up strikingly well with Sen. Doug Jones’ (D) upset win in the 2017 Alabama

J. Miles Coleman

In Close Runoff, Democrats Try to Finish Strong in Louisiana

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — In advance of Saturday’s runoff gubernatorial election in Louisiana, the data point to Gov. John Bel Edwards (D-LA) as a small favorite. — We’re moving our rating there from Toss-up to Leans Democratic, but even if Edwards holds on, it may not be by much. — In the aftermath of Virginia’s election, we found some further signs of nationalization in the results. Table 1: Crystal Ball gubernatorial ratings change Governor Old Rating New Rating John Bel Edwards (D-LA) Toss-up Leans Democratic One last look at the Bayou battle Star New Orleans Saints quarterback Drew Brees often implores his team to “finish strong.” As Gov. John Bel Edwards (D-LA) faces his runoff with businessman Eddie Rispone (R) on Saturday, there are some signs that Louisiana’s Democratic electorate is doing just that. But it’s still an open question as to whether that will be enough for Edwards. In last month’s jungle primary, national Democrats hoped Edwards could clear 50% to win outright. Instead, the governor polled at 46.6%. That was better than the 42% that former Sen. Mary Landrieu (D-LA) took in her 2014 Senate primary — she would lose the runoff 56%-44% to now-Sen. Bill

J. Miles Coleman

Election 2019: Another Win for Democrats in Virginia Pushes State Further off the Competitive Map

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — Virginia moves from Leans Democratic to Likely Democratic in our Electoral College ratings in the wake of a fourth straight November that has broken in the Democrats’ favor. — Gov. Matt Bevin’s (R) apparent loss in Kentucky is more of a personal repudiation of him than a broader loss for Republicans. — Mississippi remains elusive for Democrats, and other results nationally represented a mixed bag for the parties. Table 1: Crystal Ball Electoral College ratings change State Old Rating New Rating Virginia Leans Democratic Likely Democratic Virginia: The New Democratic Dominion In 2016, Hillary Clinton won Virginia by five points while winning the national popular vote by two (and losing the Electoral College). This was the most Democratic the state had voted for president, relative to the nation, since FDR was in the White House. The following year, Democrats held all three statewide offices by surprisingly large margins, and made an eye-popping gain of 15 net seats in the state House of Delegates, coming within a drawing in a tied race from forging a 50-50 tie in the body. Last year, Democrats netted three U.S. House seats and Sen. Tim Kaine (D) was reelected

Kyle Kondik and J. Miles Coleman

Outside of D.C., Governors Remain Popular in the States

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — Even as public approval of President Trump and Congress remain in the basement, 50-state opinion polling shows that Americans as a whole are pretty enamored of their governors. — In fact, 47 of the nation’s 50 governors are outperforming Trump in their states, and this group includes governors from all regions and partisan affiliations, and in states of every political leaning. — The governors, Democratic and Republican alike, seem to have pulled off this trick by eschewing the divisive rhetoric of Donald Trump and taking a pragmatic approach to governing. Why are the governors so popular? If you just look at polls measuring approval for the president and Congress, you’d assume that Americans are in a profound funk. According to the FiveThirtyEight.com polling average, President Donald Trump has been mired at roughly 40% approval and 54% disapproval for about two years. Approval of Congress only recently rose above 20% following seven years when it was mostly even lower, according to the RealClearPolitics.com average. But when you turn away to the states, this portrait becomes significantly less bleak. Net approval rates for governors are shockingly good, given our era’s widespread political grumbling. Consider the most

Louis Jacobson

Election 2019 Mega-Preview: Political Conformity Seeks Further Confirmation

Dear Readers: As Virginians go to the polls next week, we wanted to recognize the late Gov. Gerald Baliles (D-VA), who passed away earlier this week. Baliles served as Virginia governor from 1986-1990 and, more recently, as director of the University of Virginia’s Miller Center. For more on his life and legacy, see our Center for Politics documentary on Baliles and this remembrance from UVA Today. — The Editors KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — Nationalized politics points to a Democratic edge in next week’s Virginia state legislative elections, and a Republican advantage in the Kentucky and Mississippi gubernatorial races. — Yet, there remains uncertainty in all of those key contests as local factors test the durability of larger partisan trends. — Unrelated to next week’s action, we have two House rating changes to announce, both benefiting Republicans. The pending CA-25 special election moves from Likely Democratic to Leans Democratic following Rep. Katie Hill’s (D) decision to resign, and Rep. Conor Lamb (D, PA-17) moves from Safe Democratic to Likely Democratic. — However, what appears to be a pending court-ordered congressional remap in North Carolina should benefit Democrats. Table 1: Crystal Ball House ratings changes Member/District Old Rating New Rating

Kyle Kondik and J. Miles Coleman

Louisiana Governor: Nationalized Trends Emerge as Runoff Looms

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — As a result of Saturday’s jungle primary, the Crystal Ball has changed its rating for the Louisiana gubernatorial race to Toss-up from Leans Democratic. — In a runoff against businessman Eddie Rispone (R), Gov. John Bel Edwards (D-LA) must turn out more black voters while retaining his crossover appeal with whites. — Saturday’s primary offers the best evidence yet that political realignment is becoming a reality in Bayou State politics. Table 1: Crystal Ball gubernatorial ratings change Governor Old Rating New Rating John Bel Edwards (D-LA) Leans Democratic Toss-up The nationalization of Louisiana From its use of Napoleonic Code to its carnival celebrations, Louisiana is unique among the states. Still, this weekend’s electoral festivities proved that even the Bayou State is conforming to national trends. Despite a healthy approval rating, Gov. John Bel Edwards (D-LA) was forced into a runoff. Edwards polled at 46.6% and will join businessman Eddie Rispone (R) in a Nov. 16 runoff. As shown in Map 1, Rispone took 27%, edging out Rep. Ralph Abraham (R, LA-5). Map 1: 2019 Louisiana primary by precinct The widening urban/rural chasm that has dominated national politics since 2016 was evident. Formerly Republican strongholds

J. Miles Coleman

Louisiana 2019: Welcome to the Jungle (Primary)

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — Gov. John Bel Edwards (D-LA) defied the partisan lean of his state in 2015, but he will have to navigate an increasingly partisan electorate to win again. He’ll need Republican support, but he also must energize black voters. — Louisiana’s unique jungle primary has shaped the contours of state elections for nearly 50 years and will be a key feature of the 2019 election. — Regionalism has always been salient in Louisiana politics, and it should be a decisive factor in which Republican candidate makes a potential runoff with Edwards: Rep. Ralph Abraham (R, LA-5) or businessman Eddie Rispone (R). Previewing Saturday’s Bayou battle On the first day of class, students at Louisiana State University walked into Prof. Wayne Parent’s Louisiana Government course to kick off the spring 2014 semester. As the lecture progressed, Parent, a longtime authority on state elections, summed up his observations: “One thing I hope you’ll learn from this class is that Louisiana politics is volatile.” Sure enough, that November, the state would topple its senior senator, then go on to elevate a lowly state legislator to the governor’s mansion the next year. When the lecture turned to that 2015

J. Miles Coleman

Notes on the State of Politics

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — The polling effects from the first debate largely wore off by the time the second round started. — In 2016, President Trump won some voters who otherwise did not like him, but there are some signs he isn’t benefiting from such a dynamic at the moment. — The NC-9 special House election moves from Toss-up to Leans Republican. — Mississippi’s GOP gubernatorial primary may be headed to a runoff. Debate effects may not endure According to the RealClearPolitics average, here was the national polling average for the Democratic presidential nomination battle on June 26, the day of the first debate (we’re only listing candidates who were at 2% or higher in the average, rounded to the nearest whole percentage point): Joe Biden 32%, Bernie Sanders 17%, Elizabeth Warren 13%, Kamala Harris 7%, Pete Buttigieg 7%, Beto O’Rourke 3%, and Cory Booker 2% (no one else had 2% support or more). On Tuesday morning, the day of the start of the second round of debates, the average was: Biden 32%, Sanders 16%, Warren 14%, Harris 11%, Buttigieg 6%, O’Rourke 3%, Andrew Yang 2%, and Booker 2%. In between then and now, Biden did in fact

Kyle Kondik

Yes, Virginia, This is Chaos

Editor’s Note: This is a special edition of the Crystal Ball. Given the fast-moving developments in our home state over the last several days, we hope it’s not obsolete by the time you read it! We’ll be back with our regularly-scheduled issue next week on Thursday. Saying that anything in the annals of American political history is “unique” or “unprecedented” is dangerous, for the simple fact that the past is filled with so many oddities from which we can draw parallels. That said, we’re struggling to come up with something equivalent to what we’ve seen in Virginia over the past week. Let’s retrace the steps. This story that has rocked the Democratic administration in Richmond does not really begin with the report from conservative news site Big League Politics that Gov. Ralph Northam’s (D-VA) medical school yearbook page contained a picture of two people, one dressed in blackface and the other in a Ku Klux Klan outfit. No, it really started with a speech by state Delegate Kathy Tran (D) in which she was advocating a bill dealing with late-term abortions that many Republicans argued was instead a defense of infanticide. Northam, on Wednesday, entered the fray on the bill,

Larry J. Sabato and Kyle Kondik

Governors 2019-2020: Democrats try to hold the line in red-state battles

Editor’s Note: Last Thursday morning, the University of Virginia Center for Politics held its 20th annual American Democracy Conference in Washington, D.C. To watch a replay of the conference, visit our website. KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — Following the 2018 election, Republicans now control 27 governorships to the Democrats’ 23, but a majority of the American public will live in states governed by Democrats starting next year. — The 14 governorships at stake over the next two years feature some intriguing contests that will be held on mostly GOP-leaning turf. — The most endangered governorship for either side is the open seat in Montana, which Democrats are defending. Initial ratings for 2019-2020 gubernatorial races When newly-elected Gov. Jim Justice of West Virginia switched parties from Democratic to Republican in 2017, the Democratic Party held just 15 of the 50 state governorships. But after picking up New Jersey in 2017, Democrats netted seven more governorships in 2018: Illinois, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Nevada, New Mexico, and Wisconsin. So Democrats now hold 23 governorships, while the GOP holds 27; a majority of the population of the 50 states (about 53%) will live in states with Democratic governors, although that would be a

Kyle Kondik