2020 President

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — The author’s “time for change” presidential forecasting model has a successful track record of projecting presidential elections. In 2016, it showed Donald Trump as a favorite to win the national popular vote. Though Trump ultimately lost the popular vote while winning the Electoral College, the model presented an early indication that Trump was more than capable of winning the 2016 election. — A new model uses post-World War II presidential elections featuring incumbents to try to project Trump’s chances in 2020 based on his approval rating and the state of the economy. — Based on Trump’s current average approval rating in national polls and modest economic growth, the model suggests an extremely close 2020 result in the Electoral College. — The model’s final projection will come out next summer. Forecasting Trump’s Electoral College showing There are still 10 months to go until the first ballots will be cast in the 2020 presidential caucuses and primaries. The identity of the Democratic nominee, in all likelihood, will not be known for more than a year. Nevertheless, it is not too early to begin speculating about Donald Trump’s chances of winning a second term in the White

  Editor’s Note: This is a special edition of the Crystal Ball. We’ll be back to our usual Thursday publication next week. — The Editors   KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — Following the conclusion of the Mueller probe, President Trump being forced from office or the ballot because of legal troubles is even less likely than before. — Trump remains an overwhelming favorite for renomination by Republicans as their presidential nominee. — The fate of the Trump administration is in the hands of the voters in November 2020. Mueller and Trump: The political calculus There is still so much we do not know about Robert Mueller’s investigation into Russian interference into the 2016 election. For one thing, none of us — including commentators — have actually seen the report; all we have is a summary from Attorney General William Barr, an appointee of President Trump who quite likely has an interest in presenting the Mueller report’s findings in the best possible light. Given that there has been a bipartisan consensus about releasing the report — the president himself called for it less than a week ago — we hope the full report, or as much of it as legally

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — Despite persistently close presidential elections this century, many states have been becoming dramatically more Democratic or Republican compared to the nation over the course of the last decade and a half. — Generally speaking, the Sun Belt and West are trending Democratic. The Midwest and North more broadly, along with Greater Appalachia, are trending Republican. — Map 1 at the end of this article shows the trends, and the charts throughout show the trend of every state in its presidential lean relative to the nation from 2000 to 2016. What does it mean for a state to “trend,” and what are the trends? It has become common to describe our home state of Virginia as a state that is “trending Democratic.” That’s an observation we agree with — we used that exact term a few weeks ago in our initial Electoral College ratings. But what are we really saying when we use a term like that? What follows is an explanation, and an exploration, of the recent presidential voting trends in Virginia and the other 49 states. A quick look at recent Electoral College history would seem to confirm the Democratic trend in Virginia.

  Editor’s Note: The Crystal Ball will be away for the University of Virginia’s spring break next week. We’ll return on Thursday, March 21. We’re pleased this week to welcome back to the Crystal Ball Joel Goldstein, perhaps the nation’s leading expert on the vice presidency. Joel challenges the notion that the vice presidency is not a true stepping stone to the presidency and asserts that Joe Biden’s vice presidential experience is much more important to his 2020 chances than his previous presidential bids. — The Editors   KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — The vice presidency, contrary to the belief of some, is actually a good springboard to the presidency. — Former Vice President Joe Biden’s proven experience in the second slot is a lot more important in assessing his presidential odds than his two previous failed bids for the Democratic presidential nomination. Biden and the presidential benefits of being vice president Some pundits have emphasized Vice President Joe Biden’s lack of success in prior presidential races in assessing his strength as a presidential candidate this cycle. In arguing that Biden should not throw his hat into the ring, Julian Zelizer, the prominent Princeton University history professor, recently argued

  KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — Our initial Electoral College ratings reflect a 2020 presidential election that starts as a Toss-up. — We start with 248 electoral votes at least leaning Republican, 244 at least leaning Democratic, and 46 votes in the Toss-up category. — The omissions from the initial Toss-up category that readers may find most surprising are Florida and Michigan. — Much of the electoral map is easy to allocate far in advance: About 70% of the total electoral votes come from states and districts that have voted for the same party in at least the last five presidential elections. The 2020 battlefield With an approval rating in the low-to-mid 40s — and, perhaps more importantly, a disapproval rating consistently over 50% — it would be easy to say that President Trump is an underdog for reelection. The president won only narrowly in 2016 and did so while losing the national popular vote, making his national coalition precarious. He has done little to appeal to people who did not vote for him, and a Democrat who can consolidate the votes of Trump disapprovers should be able to oust him unless the president can improve his approval numbers

A new University of Virginia Center for Politics/Ipsos poll of Virginia adults shows Gov. Ralph Northam (D) with weak approval numbers, but Virginians surveyed are not demanding his resignation and do not favor the state legislature removing him through impeachment. Meanwhile, a plurality of respondents say Lt. Gov. Justin Fairfax (D) should resign, but another quarter say he should not and a third are not sure what he should do, and the public is ambivalent on impeachment. Attorney General Mark Herring (D) seems the best-positioned of all three to remain in office, with less than one in five respondents believing he should resign or be impeached. The state’s three elected statewide Democratic executive officials have all been embroiled in different scandals. A few weeks ago, Northam’s 1984 medical school yearbook surfaced and showed a picture of two people on the governor’s page, one wearing blackface and another wearing a Ku Klux Klan costume. Northam initially apologized for the picture but then denied that he was in it, in the process admitting to wearing blackface the same year as part of a Michael Jackson costume. A few days later, Herring admitted to wearing blackface as part of a costume to imitate

The Center for Politics stands for good politics, but politics has broken down — it isn’t working, and hundreds of thousands of government workers and their families, as well as government contractors and their families, are suffering. The shutdown is the longest in United States history and shows no sign of ending. Through no fault of their own, many people around the country now find themselves and their families in need of help.  We invite you to consider a donation to any of the following: Feeding America Feeding America is working with a network of food banks to support affected families. On their website, you can pledge money or enter your zip code to find nearby food banks that could use your support. To give, go to: https://www.feedingamerica.org/ Capital Area Food Bank Capital Area Food Bank, is a large anti-hunger charity in the DC area, that typically provides about three million meals in January alone. To give, go to: https://www.capitalareafoodbank.org #ChefsForFeds #ChefsForFeds organizes food trucks, chefs, nonprofits and businesses to provide meals for those impacted by the shutdown. It is run by World Central Kitchen, a national nonprofit organization that strives to eliminate hunger and poverty. To give, go to: https://www.worldcentralkitchen.org/join-chefsforfeds OR Google #ChefsForFeds Greater

The University of Virginia Center for Politics is hosting its 20th annual American Democracy Conference this morning in Charlottesville. A conference livestream is available at: https://livestream.com/tavco/ADC2019 The schedule is as follows: 9 a.m. — Keynote address by former Gov. Terry McAuliffe (D-VA) 10 a.m. — Panel discussion on Donald Trump at the midterm of his presidency Moderator: Christine Mahoney, Professor of Public Policy and Politics at UVA’s Frank Batten School of Leadership and Public Policy Panelists: Paul Begala, Democratic strategist and CNN political analyst Jamelle Bouie, New York Times opinion columnist and CBS News analyst Kate Obenshain, former Republican Party of Virginia chairwoman and Fox News and CNBC analyst David Ramadan, former Republican member of the Virginia House of Delegates 11:30 a.m. — Lunch provided by Center for Politics Noon — Keynote address by Karl Rove, former deputy chief of staff to President George W. Bush This is the second part of the Center’s 20th anniversary edition of the annual American Democracy Conference. The first part was held last November in Washington D.C. and featured remarks from Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX), House Intelligence Committee Chairman Adam Schiff (D, CA-28), and expert panels reacting to the midterm and looking ahead to

Next Thursday, Jan. 24, the University of Virginia Center for Politics will host its 20th annual American Democracy Conference in Charlottesville. The event will be held at Alumni Hall, 211 Emmet St. South, on the Grounds of the University of Virginia. It is free and open to the public with advanced registration, and members of the media are welcome to attend as well. We also will be livestreaming the conference at: https://livestream.com/tavco/ADC2019 The schedule is as follows: 8:30 a.m. — Doors open 9 a.m. — Keynote address by former Gov. Terry McAuliffe (D-VA) 10 a.m. — Panel discussion on Donald Trump at the midterm of his presidency Moderator: Christine Mahoney, Professor of Public Policy and Politics at UVA’s Frank Batten School of Leadership and Public Policy Panelists: Paul Begala, Democratic strategist and CNN political analyst Jamelle Bouie, New York Times opinion columnist and CBS News analyst Kate Obenshain, former Republican Party of Virginia chairwoman and Fox News and CNBC analyst David Ramadan, former Republican member of the Virginia House of Delegates 11:30 a.m. — Lunch provided by Center for Politics Noon — Keynote address by Karl Rove, former deputy chief of staff to President George W. Bush This is the

A new Reuters/Ipsos poll conducted in conjunction with the University of Virginia Center for Politics finds that a majority of Americans surveyed believe that race relations in the United States have gotten at least somewhat worse since President Donald Trump’s election. The poll also explores American racial attitudes at the one-year anniversary of a neo-Nazi march in Charlottesville last August. Americans offered more mixed opinions on race relations looking back on President Barack Obama’s presidency, with roughly equal numbers saying race relations got better or got worse during his presidency. Tables 1 and 2 shows how respondents felt about race relations during both the Trump and Obama presidencies. Americans believe by 57% to 15% that race relations have become worse since President Trump’s election. By contrast, respondents were evenly divided about Barack Obama’s time in the White House, with 38% believing race relations improved and 37% saying they worsened. Table 1: “Since President Trump’s election, do you believe that race relations in America are better or worse?” Table 2: “During President Obama’s presidency, do you believe that race relations in America became better or worse?” The poll was conducted in advance of the first anniversary of a neo-Nazi and white

Whatever price elected Republicans eventually pay for standing by President Donald J. Trump — and every party eventually pays at least some price for holding the White House — one could argue that Republicans have already gotten enough from Trump to justify backing him. In his always-interesting quarterly report, GOP lobbyist Bruce Mehlman has compiled some of the ways Trump has kept the Republican coalition together. The biggest prizes for the right may be Supreme Court Justice Neil Gorsuch and potential Supreme Court Justice-To-Be Brett Kavanaugh. Assuming Kavanaugh’s confirmation, he and Gorsuch could be on the court for decades thanks to lifetime appointments. Anguish from the left over these appointments may lead to further escalations of the judicial wars in coming years, such as a future Senate majority mimicking and extending Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell’s (R-KY) successful 2016 gambit to not even hold a hearing on a nominee from a president of the other party, or a future president and Congress attempting to alter the size of the court for partisan gain. Whatever happens, this much is clear: Lifetime federal court appointments are among the most valuable of partisan political spoils, and they are only increasing in value. But