2023 Governor

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — The key races we’re watching next week are gubernatorial races in Kentucky and Mississippi, the state legislative contests in Virginia, an abortion-related ballot issue in Ohio, and a state Supreme Court race in Pennsylvania. — We continue to favor incumbent Govs. Andy Beshear (D-KY) and Tate Reeves (R-MS) in next week’s gubernatorial elections, even as upsets are possible in either. — If the abortion rights vote in Ohio is close, some key Obama-to-Trump counties may tell the tale of the election, while partisan loyalties in Pennsylvania may be a bit weaker in the court race than in a federal race. The red state governor races After Louisiana’s contest was settled after a single round of balloting in last month’s jungle primary, the only two gubernatorial races on tap for next week are in a pair of red states: Kentucky and Mississippi. Since we first looked at Kentucky, we’ve rated it as Leans Democratic, while Mississippi has been at Likely Republican for most of that time. Part of our thinking is that we see Gov. Tate Reeves (R-MS) as favored in large part because of the partisan lean of his state, while we see Gov. Andy Beshear (D-KY) favored

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — On Saturday, Louisiana voters will go to the polls to begin selecting a replacement for term-limited Gov. John Bel Edwards (D-LA). — In the all-party primary, state Attorney General Jeff Landry (R) has been the frontrunner for much of the campaign and will likely advance to a runoff. — The state Democratic establishment has thrown its weight behind former state Transportation Secretary Shawn Wilson, who will probably join Landry in a runoff. — Despite Edwards’s success in recent gubernatorial elections, many of the dynamics that favored him in 2015 and 2019 are now absent. The Crystal Ball rates the race as Likely Republican. Previewing Louisiana’s Saturday primary In the 2022 midterm elections, one area where Democrats most obviously beat historical expectations were the gubernatorial contests. Despite defending several marginal states, Democrats came out with a net gain of governorships. While it was impressive that Democrats held up well in states that are typically competitive — such examples include Arizona, Michigan, and Wisconsin — their overall net gain was due to flipping a pair of solidly blue northeastern states: Maryland and Massachusetts. In the former, Gov. Larry Hogan (R-MD) was term-limited while, in the latter, Gov. Charlie

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — Despite an increasing correlation between presidential and down-ballot results, there are still nine governors who govern states that their party did not win for president. That means there is a higher percentage of crossover governors than crossover members of the Senate and House. — Still, the number of crossover governors was higher in the recent past. — While there are lots of moving pieces, including what happens in the 2024 presidential election, we could see even more of a decline in the number of crossover governors in this cycle’s gubernatorial elections. Assessing the crossover governorships New Hampshire Gov. Chris Sununu’s (R) announcement last week that he will not seek a fifth two-year term as the Granite State’s governor gives Democrats a key takeover target next year. But his departure might also help reduce the dwindling number of “crossover” state governors. We often note the number of House and Senate seats where the winner of the district or state is of a different party than the party that won the district or state for president in the most recent election. There is a greater share of crossover governors than crossover House and Senate members, but the

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — North Carolina’s open-seat race is clearly the marquee contest of 2024’s gubernatorial races. It starts as a Toss-up. — The other contests start with clear favorites despite several open seats. — If popular Republican incumbents run for another term, the GOP should be in great shape to hold New Hampshire and Vermont. But they would be great Democratic opportunities as open seats. — Mississippi moves to Likely Republican following the entry of a credible Democratic candidate after our initial 2023 rating release last week. Table 1: Crystal Ball gubernatorial rating change Governor Old Rating New Rating Tate Reeves (R-MS) Safe Republican Likely Republican Map 1: Crystal Ball 2023/2024 gubernatorial ratings The 2024 gubernatorial races Following up on our initial 2023 gubernatorial ratings post from last week, we’ll look a bit further down the road with a survey of 2024’s races. Our home state, Virginia, will be at the center of the action — sort of. This year, the key contest will be our neighbor to the west, Kentucky. In 2024, our southern neighbor, North Carolina, will likely be the most hotly contested gubernatorial contest. The 2022 cycle proved to be a banner year for

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — While it’s easy to begin looking towards the 2024 election cycle, 3 states will have gubernatorial contests this year. — In Kentucky, Democratic Gov. Andy Beshear remains personally popular, but he will be running in a red state with a large GOP bench. — Louisiana and Mississippi should be easier contests for Republicans. Term-limited Gov. John Bel Edwards (D-LA) will be hard for Democrats to replace, while Mississippi, where Democrats have not won a gubernatorial contest this century, will also be an uphill fight for them. — The initial ratings for these 3 races are Leans Democratic for Kentucky, Safe Republican for Mississippi, and Likely Republican for Louisiana. Rating the 2023 gubernatorial races With the 2022 midterms finally in the books, it’s time to start looking to the 2024 presidential race. Just kidding. While we will have no shortage of 2024 content on tap, 2023 will see many of its own elections. In our own backyard, this November’s legislative races in Virginia, where each party narrowly controls a chamber of the legislature, will have implications for the commonwealth. Democrats may be feeling more confident after Tuesday night, as they flipped a marginal state Senate seat in the