2028 President

While the state of the economy was likely an important factor in the 2024 presidential election and other recent contests, discontent over economic conditions doesn’t really explain the movement of white working class voters to the Republican Party in the longer-term. Rather, cultural issues were probably a larger driver of white working class voters, once the base of the Democratic Party decades ago, into the Republican column.

As his second term enters its second month, Donald Trump retains a positive approval rating in polling averages. However, his numbers in polling averages are weaker now than a few weeks ago, driven more by an increase in disapproval than a decline in approval. Compared to his 2024 performance with certain demographic groups based on the national exit poll, Trump is overperforming the most with some typically Democratic constituencies

Pennsylvania changed in the Trump era from being a somewhat Democratic-leaning state to a top presidential battleground, voting for the winning candidate in all 3 of Donald Trump’s elections. One indicator of the GOP’s growth in the state is changing voter registration patterns, as Republicans have drastically reduced the Democrats’ voter registration edge in the state in the Trump era.

Analyzing a half-century of change in the allocation of electoral votes across the states