Skip links

Rating Change

Sabato's Crystal Ball

Six Days to Go

Dear Readers: Crystal Ball editors Kyle Kondik and J. Miles Coleman, along with our Center for Politics colleague Carah Ong Whaley, will be hosting a Twitter Spaces at noon eastern on Thursday to discuss the looming midterm elections. You can tune in here; if you cannot make it, we will also be releasing the discussion as an episode of our Politics is Everything podcast. The podcast is available on all major podcast platforms. If you have a question you would like us to answer during our discussion, feel free to email us at [email protected]. — The Editors KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — The race for the Senate continues to lack a clear favorite, but the majority remains within reach for Republicans despite a headache-plagued campaign year. — Republicans hope to cut into the Leans or Likely Democratic gubernatorial races as they seek to net seats despite the likely losses of Maryland and Massachusetts. — A handful of House rating changes serve as a small taste of our final update Monday, when we’ll offer our final picks for the midterm. Table 1: House rating changes Member/District Old Rating New Rating CO-8 Open (No inc.) Toss-up Leans Republican FL-23 Open (Deutch,

Kyle Kondik

The House: GOP Hits 218 in Ratings as Battle Rages Across Big Playing Field

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — We now rate 218 House seats — the magic number for winning a majority — as at least Leans Republican in our House ratings. — A large number of races remain close and competitive. The danger for Democrats is that these races end up breaking disproportionately to the Republicans. — 4 Toss-ups move to Leans Republican this week. — After these changes, 218 seats at least Lean Republican, while 195 at least Lean Democratic, and there are 22 Toss-ups. Splitting the Toss-ups evenly, 11-11, would give Republicans 229 seats, or a net gain of 16. — We suspect the Republicans will do better than just a split in the Toss-ups, so our updated forecast is a GOP gain in the high teens or low 20s. Table 1: Crystal Ball House rating changes Member/District Old Rating New Rating Mike Garcia (R, CA-27) Toss-up Leans Republican Yvette Herrell (R, NM-2) Toss-up Leans Republican NY-22 Open (Katko, R) Toss-up Leans Republican Joe Morelle (D, NY-25) Safe Democratic Likely Democratic OR-5 Open (Schrader, D) Toss-up Leans Republican Table 2: Crystal Ball House ratings The race for the House with 2 weeks to go Way back in January, and

Kyle Kondik

Notes on the State of Politics: Sept. 7, 2022

Dear Readers: This is the latest edition of Notes on the State of Politics, which features short updates on elections and politics. — The Editors Table 1: Crystal Ball House rating changes District Old Rating New Rating Mary Peltola (D, AK-AL) Safe Republican Toss-up MI-3 Open (Meijer, R) Toss-up Leans Democratic Kim Schrier (D, WA-8) Toss-up Leans Democratic Table 2: Crystal Ball Gubernatorial rating change Governor Old Rating New Rating MA Open (Baker, R) Likely Democratic Safe Democratic What’s going on in the House? With the football season getting underway and the political season producing some strange outcomes — a Democrat won a House race in Alaska, huh? — we are reminded of the famous clip of Green Bay Packers coach Vince Lombardi: “What the hell’s going on out here?” Rep.-elect Mary Peltola’s (D, AK-AL) victory in Alaska’s ranked-choice special House election, which was finalized last week after an Aug. 16 election, has contributed to a fog of war that has descended over the House battlefield. The basics are still bad for Democrats: President Joe Biden’s (D) approval rating, perhaps the best catch-all of the political environment, is still stuck in the low 40s, albeit after having improved from the

Kyle Kondik and J. Miles Coleman

House Rating Changes: More Movement Toward Republicans

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — We are making 10 House rating changes, 9 of which benefit Republicans. — Our overall best guess at the net change in the House — a GOP gain somewhere in the 20s — remains unchanged. — We don’t see a huge impact, so far, from the Supreme Court’s landmark abortion opinion. Table 1: Crystal Ball House rating changes Member/District Old Rating New Rating CO-7 Open (Perlmutter, D) Likely Democratic Leans Democratic CO-8 Open (No inc.) Toss-up Leans Republican Jahana Hayes (D, CT-5) Likely Democratic Leans Democratic Carlos Giménez (R, FL-28) Likely Republican Safe Republican FL-4 Open (No inc.) Likely Republican Safe Republican FL-7 Open (Murphy, D) Likely Republican Safe Republican Sanford Bishop (D, GA-2) Leans Democratic Likely Democratic Frank Mrvan (D, IN-1) Leans Democratic Toss-up NC-13 Open (No inc.) Toss-up Leans Republican Bryan Steil (R, WI-1) Likely Republican Safe Republican The race for the House It has been roughly a month since the U.S. Supreme Court’s Dobbs vs. Jackson Women’s Health Organization decision, which overruled past Supreme Court decisions recognizing a constitutional right to abortion. The decision has perhaps made some difference in the electoral environment, although likely only at the margins. House generic

Kyle Kondik

Notes on the State of Politics: Jan. 26, 2022

Dear Readers: On Thursday, Jan. 27 from 2-3 p.m., the University of Virginia Center for Politics and the UVA Office of Global Affairs will host a virtual Ambassador Series event with His Excellency Juan Carlos Pinzón, Ambassador of Colombia to the United States. You can watch here. This is the latest edition of Notes on the State of Politics, which features short updates on elections and politics. — The Editors Table 1: Crystal Ball House ratings for states that have completed redistricting Table 2: Crystal Ball House rating changes Member/District Old Rating New Rating Henry Cuellar (D, TX-28) Likely Democratic Leans Democratic Vicente Gonzalez (D, TX-34) Safe Democratic Likely Democratic Table 3: Crystal Ball gubernatorial rating changes Governor Old Rating New Rating Kim Reynolds (R-IA) Likely Republican Safe Republican South Texas looking more tenuous for Democrats Overall, the basic contours of the 2020 presidential election mostly lined up with the fault lines of 2016 — in the Center for Politics’ post-2020 book, A Return to Normalcy, Crystal Ball Senior Columnist Alan Abramowitz observed that if one simply added 3 points to Hillary Clinton’s margin in each state, it would be a fair predictor of Joe Biden’s showing. While this method held up for

Kyle Kondik and J. Miles Coleman

The Electoral College: Expanding the Map

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — We don’t really think President Trump can win New Mexico, where he campaigned earlier this week. But he’s wise to try to expand the map. — While presidents who lose reelection historically don’t win states they didn’t carry in their earlier victories, presidents who win reelection typically do end up winning one or more states they lost previously, although there is one significant recent exception. — However, the president seems to be at least a small underdog in every Hillary Clinton-won state. We’re moving New Hampshire from Toss-up to Leans Democratic in our Electoral College ratings. Table 1: Crystal Ball Electoral College rating change State Old Rating New Rating New Hampshire Toss-up Leans Democratic Trump tries to expand the map President Trump was in New Mexico earlier this week in service of what seemed to many like a quixotic mission: Flipping the Land of Enchantment from blue to red in 2020. New Mexico voted for Hillary Clinton by about eight points in 2016; the state voted for Barack Obama by about 10 points four years earlier, a slight shift to the right that mirrored Obama’s four-point national popular vote victory falling to a two-point

Kyle Kondik

Notes on the State of Politics

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — The polling effects from the first debate largely wore off by the time the second round started. — In 2016, President Trump won some voters who otherwise did not like him, but there are some signs he isn’t benefiting from such a dynamic at the moment. — The NC-9 special House election moves from Toss-up to Leans Republican. — Mississippi’s GOP gubernatorial primary may be headed to a runoff. Debate effects may not endure According to the RealClearPolitics average, here was the national polling average for the Democratic presidential nomination battle on June 26, the day of the first debate (we’re only listing candidates who were at 2% or higher in the average, rounded to the nearest whole percentage point): Joe Biden 32%, Bernie Sanders 17%, Elizabeth Warren 13%, Kamala Harris 7%, Pete Buttigieg 7%, Beto O’Rourke 3%, and Cory Booker 2% (no one else had 2% support or more). On Tuesday morning, the day of the start of the second round of debates, the average was: Biden 32%, Sanders 16%, Warren 14%, Harris 11%, Buttigieg 6%, O’Rourke 3%, Andrew Yang 2%, and Booker 2%. In between then and now, Biden did in fact

Kyle Kondik

Final picks for 2018

  KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — Sorry, friends, but you are going to have to actually read this one. — Our full list of ratings changes is available here. Our best guesses for Tuesday The 2018 midterm has long been a study in contradictory signs. There is, for Republicans, the benefit of running at a time of relative peace and prosperity. Unpopular wars and economic recessions have spelled doom for the president’s party in many past midterm elections. But then there is also the weak approval rating of President Trump, who thanks to his deliberately polarizing style has kept the GOP base in line but strongly alienated Democrats and, perhaps more importantly, independent, swing voters. Democrats have held a steady lead in the high single digits on the national House generic ballot polling, a lead suggestive of a potential House flip but not one large enough to indicate that such a flip is an absolute lock. There is the shifting political landscape that emerged nationally in 2016, with some traditionally Democratic blue collar small cities and rural areas across the North moving toward Trump and the Republicans, and some traditionally Republican suburbs dominated by voters with high formal educational

Larry J. Sabato and Kyle Kondik

The Drive for 25: An updated seat-by-seat analysis of the House

  KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — A race-by-race analysis of Democratic House targets shows the party is close to winning the majority, but they do not have it put away, in our judgment, with Election Day less than three weeks away. — Barring a big, positive late change in the political environment in favor of Republicans, the bare minimum for Democratic House gains is in the mid-to-high teens. The needed 23-seat net gain is not that far beyond that and there are many different paths Democrats can take to achieve it. So the GOP is still at a disadvantage overall. — There are 11 ratings changes this week, seven in favor of Democrats and four in favor of Republicans. — Note: With the election so close, and with the Crystal Ball planning to eventually offer a projection in every general election House, Senate, and gubernatorial race (as per our tradition), we are working to reduce the number of Toss-ups in our ratings, not add to them. — We are not making any changes to the Senate and gubernatorial ratings this week, but we are including our current assessment of the state of play in Maps 1 and 2 before

Kyle Kondik

Midterm Update: North Dakota goes to Leans Republican, giving the Republicans a clearer edge in the Senate

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — The North Dakota Senate race moves from Toss-up to Leans Republican, reinforcing what we’ve long described as a GOP edge in the race for the Senate. — The Democrats do have a path to the majority, but that path almost certainly involves winning at least one race we currently rate as Leans Republican: the aforementioned North Dakota contest, or Tennessee or Texas. — Meanwhile, in the gubernatorial races, two red states (Alaska and South Dakota) are moving in different directions in our ratings. — The dean of the House, Rep. Don Young (R, AK-AL), might have a hard race. Table 1: Crystal Ball Senate rating change Senator Old Rating New Rating Heidi Heitkamp (D-ND) Toss-up Leans Republican Table 2: Crystal Ball gubernatorial ratings changes Governor Old Rating New Rating Bill Walker (I-AK) Leans Republican Likely Republican SD Open (Daugaard, R) Likely Republican Leans Republican Because we know readers want to see the up-to-the-minute state of play, we’re going to be publishing our Senate and gubernatorial maps, along with our House ratings tables, at the top of the Crystal Ball each week from here to the election. One can also always find our ratings at

Kyle Kondik

Ratings Changes: House, Senate, and Governor

  Editor’s Note: Before we begin this week, we just wanted to acknowledge our friend Geoffrey Skelley, our long-time Crystal Ball associate editor. Geoff started a new position this week with FiveThirtyEight. For nearly seven years, Geoffrey was an exceptionally valuable member of our team, and we will miss him tremendously. However, we are also happy for him as he continues his career at an outlet whose work we deeply respect. We will have more to say in the coming weeks about how we plan to replace Geoff but, in the meantime, we wanted to thank him for his great work for us and to wish him success in his new position. — Larry J. Sabato, Kyle Kondik, and the rest of the University of Virginia Center for Politics team.   KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — There are lots of questions, and not many answers, about whether the Brett Kavanaugh confirmation saga might impact November. — We have 11 House ratings changes, all in favor of Democrats. — Five gubernatorial ratings changes go in different directions but are generally better for Democrats. — Only one change in the Senate as the battle for that chamber remains in something of

Kyle Kondik

The House Tilts Toward the Democrats

Editor’s Note: This is a special Tuesday edition of the Crystal Ball. We’ll be back to our regular Thursday schedule next week. KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — Democrats are now a little better than 50-50 to win the House. This is the first time this cycle we’ve gone beyond 50-50 odds on a House turnover. — We’re making 17 House ratings changes this week, all in favor of the Democrats. — One of those comes in OH-12, where the last nationally-watched special House election is taking place in a couple of weeks. Table 1: Crystal Ball House ratings changes Member/District Old Rating New Rating French Hill (R, AR-2) Likely Republican Leans Republican Vern Buchanan (R, FL-16) Likely Republican Leans Republican Charlie Crist (D, FL-13) Likely Democratic Safe Democratic Steve King (R, IA-4) Safe Republican Likely Republican David Young (R, IA-3) Leans Republican Toss-up Peter Roskam (R, IL-6) Leans Republican Toss-up Trey Hollingsworth (R, IN-9) Safe Republican Likely Republican Jackie Walorski (R, IN-2) Safe Republican Likely Republican Andy Barr (R, KY-6) Leans Republican Toss-up Mike Bishop (R, MI-8) Leans Republican Toss-up NM-2 Open (Pearce, R) Likely Republican Leans Republican Steve Chabot (R, OH-1) Leans Republican Toss-up OH-12 Special (Tiberi, R)

Kyle Kondik

A half-dozen House ratings changes in favor of Democrats

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — Rep. Joe Crowley’s (D, NY-14) primary loss represents a changing of the guard in a diverse district. It does not necessarily suggest we should expect a flood of additional Democratic primary losers. As it stands, only three incumbent House members have lost renomination so far this cycle (Crowley, plus two Republicans). — Tuesday’s primary night was otherwise uneventful, and the president had a good night. — We have half a dozen House ratings changes, all in favor of Democrats. More below. Table 1: Crystal Ball House ratings changes Member/District Old Rating New Rating Mimi Walters (R, CA-45) Leans Republican Toss-up Tom MacArthur (R, NJ-3) Likely Republican Leans Republican NJ-2 Open (LoBiondo, R) Leans Democratic Likely Democratic Dave Brat (R, VA-7) Leans Republican Toss-up Barbara Comstock (R, VA-10) Toss-up Leans Democratic Scott Taylor (R, VA-2) Leans Republican Toss-up A changing of the guard in New York City Going into Tuesday night, no Democratic House member had been denied renomination in a primary, and all but one won their primaries on Tuesday. Yet the one exception was the fourth-ranking member of the Democratic caucus: Rep. Joe Crowley (D, NY-14), who was toppled by liberal activist Alexandria

Kyle Kondik

THE COMEY EFFECT

The purest version of the “October surprise” is a political bombshell that no one sees coming. In the closing days of the craziest campaign in modern history, we have just been witnesses to an October surprise so pure it would qualify for an Ivory Soap commercial (“99 and 44/100 percent pure”). When FBI Director James Comey sent a letter to certain members of Congress about a new development in the long-running Hillary Clinton email mess, the resulting earthquake could be picked up by a seismograph. There are very legitimate questions about whether Director Comey was right or wrong to do what he did. It’s indisputable that Comey broke normal FBI practice in order to comment publicly on an incomplete, ongoing investigation. Moreover, Comey violated longstanding FBI standards that prohibit announcements within 60 days of an election that would influence the public’s choice. Just 11 days before Nov. 8, Comey took an unprecedented step that could affect the outcome of an election for president and Congress. The vagueness and ambiguity of his letter to some senior members of Congress guaranteed a leak to the press within five nanoseconds, and invited the rankest speculation from Clinton’s opponents. To the extent that Clinton

Larry J. Sabato, Kyle Kondik, and Geoffrey Skelley

THE TRUMP SURGE

And then, everything changed. Well, not everything, but enough to generate the first major revision in our electoral map, and all of it is in Donald Trump’s direction for now. Let us make our view perfectly clear: We still believe that Hillary Clinton is more likely than Trump to win the election, and she still has the advantage in the Electoral College. Yet it is equally apparent that she has stumbled badly in recent weeks, fueling Trump’s polling advance. And the Republican nominee has more pathways to 270 electoral votes than he did before. Clinton disappeared for long stretches before Labor Day to do fundraising and failed to define any overriding positive message about what a Hillary Clinton presidency would mean. Then came the “basket of deplorables” gaffe (which some believe might actually help Clinton with her party base) and the lie by omission about her pneumonia, a serious condition that deserves scrutiny. Instead of transparency, there was a bold gambit by Clinton to avoid any health disclosure that might give credence to longtime, far-right theories that she was at death’s door. This ill-advised error reinforced the public’s view that Clinton is secretive and untruthful. At the same time, two

Larry J. Sabato, Kyle Kondik, and Geoffrey Skelley