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KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — Seven in 10 Republicans still believe Joe Biden’s election was illegitimate. — While almost all Democrats support law enforcement efforts to track down and prosecute those who attacked the Capitol on Jan. 6, only 28% of Republicans support those efforts. — Republicans say they would punish GOP candidates who voted to impeach Donald Trump or establish a commission to investigate the events of January 6 and be more likely to vote for Republicans who questioned the legitimacy of Biden's victory. — Fifty-five percent of Republicans list Donald Trump as their first choice for the 2024 Republican nomination, and 3 out of 4 have him in their top 3. New polling on Jan. 6 As the world watched a mob of Trump supporters violently breach the United States Capitol Building, interrupting the counting of Electoral College votes, Donald Trump’s staunchest allies privately conveyed their horror and concern to White House Chief of Staff Mark Meadows. “He's got to condemn this sh*t ASAP,” wrote Donald Trump, Jr. “Mark, the president needs to tell people in the Capitol to go home,” wrote Fox News host Laura Ingraham. “This is hurting all of us. He is destroying his

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — Voters in several states will be deciding significant statewide ballot issues next week. — The most notable issues deal with topics such as gaming, energy, taxes, and more. But the one with the most national import is in New York, where voters could give majority Democrats more power in redistricting. The top statewide ballot issues In this off-year election season, only two states have gubernatorial elections: New Jersey and Virginia. But a slightly wider array of states are giving voters an opportunity to vote on ballot measures. The total number of ballot measures going to the voters this year is far smaller than it was a year ago, during a presidential election year. Still, five states — Colorado, Maine, New Jersey, New York, and Texas — have notable measures on the ballot this fall, covering issues that range from taxation and gambling to the environment and voting access. (This rundown does not include municipal ballot measures.) The following rundown includes thumbnail analyses of 14 ballot measures from these states that could have a noteworthy impact if passed on Election Night. Colorado Colorado has two measures on the ballot, which have garnered only modest advertising

Dear Readers: While we usually focus on election-related topics, the University of Virginia Center for Politics and our director, Larry J. Sabato, have long taken an interest in the life and legacy of John F. Kennedy. Sabato and the Center produced the Kennedy Half-Century project in 2013, including Sabato’s best-selling book The Kennedy Half-Century: The Presidency, Assassination, and Lasting Legacy of John F. Kennedy and other resources. Sabato and other members of the Center for Politics team, as well as student interns, have been combing through documents related to Kennedy’s assassination, and we — like so many others — are eager to see the final JFK documents released. The piece below, by Center for Politics researchers Garland Branch and Eliot Sperling along with intern Natalie Gonzalez, sums up what we know about the government’s remaining unreleased JFK documents and ponders whether they will finally be released this fall. — The Editors KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — The JFK Act passed in 1992 required that all government agencies send any records concerning the JFK assassination to the National Archives and Records Administration (NARA), where they would be held for 25 years before released to the public on Oct. 26, 2017.

The University of Virginia Center for Politics is excited to name four resident scholars for the 2021-2022 academic year. They are acclaimed journalist Jamelle Bouie; former Department of Homeland Security Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency Director Chris Krebs; former Virginia Del. David Ramadan; and political communications veteran and commentator Tara Setmayer. They will be working with the Center’s staff and students this academic year towards its goals of promoting the democratic process and creating an informed citizenry. As resident scholars, they will participate as guest speakers for Center for Politics classes, participate as panelists for Center events, and work with Center staff to develop additional public programs throughout the academic year. Images of the Center for Politics’ resident scholars, starting in upper-left and moving clockwise: Tara Setmayer, Jamelle Bouie, Christopher Krebs, and David Ramadan. Jamelle Bouie is an opinion columnist for the New York Times and political analyst for CBS News. He previously served as chief political correspondent for Slate magazine. His insights on the impact of race in politics have been instrumental in driving national discourse. In 2013, Bouie contributed to the Center’s book Barack Obama and the New America: The 2012 Election and the Changing Face of Politics.

The University of Virginia Center for Politics in partnership with the Miller Center, Weldon Cooper Center/Sorensen Institute, Democracy Initiative, and the Frank Batten School of Leadership and Public Policy have selected 50 students for the second annual 22nd Century Scholars scholarship program set to launch July 1 and continue through Aug. 6. The 22nd Century Scholars (open to rising second, third, and fourth-year students at UVA and UVA Wise) were selected by application and will participate in a multi-faceted summer internship with the participating partners. The program is designed to be an immersive learning opportunity where students gain public-sector work experience; participate in public event planning; generate political and historical research; assist with television documentary production; and receive personalized career counseling through the UVA Career Center. In addition, and new to the program this year, all Scholars will participate in the Center for Politics’ Global Perspectives on Democracy program and engage in real time, real world international diplomacy by serving as “host peers” for a U.S. Department of State-sponsored delegation of students in Iraq during the final two weeks of the program. Each Scholar will receive a $2,000 stipend as part of the program, and will work individually and collectively

Dear Readers: We’re pleased to once again welcome Chaz Nuttycombe for an analysis of state legislative races across the country. While we do not issue our own ratings in these races, Chaz follows them very closely. For more information on some of this cycle’s other state-level races, check out Senior Columnist Louis Jacobson’s recent Crystal Ball pieces on state Supreme Court contests and state ballot issues. — The Editors KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — Democrats have gained massive ground in their battle for state legislatures since an overview in early May. — There will likely be a Democratic net gain in state legislative chambers, breaking a few Republican trifectas and creating a new Democratic trifecta. — The continuing electoral realignment between rural and suburban areas is present in state legislative races, as most Democratic flips are in the suburbs and most Republican flips are in rural areas. The battle for the statehouses Nearly half a year ago, the condition of the state legislatures didn’t look too bad for Republicans: They were at least slight favorites in most of their competitive chambers, they were favored to have a national net gain in single-member districts in state Houses and Assemblies, and

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — Quietly, 2020 is proving to be a major year for ballot measures, with 120 on statewide ballots. In this article, we’ll look at 70 with the potential to have a significant policy impact. — Some of the most numerous this year are related to elections and voting. They include changes to how primaries are run, as well as ranked-choice voting and redistricting. — In addition to topics often seen on ballots such as taxes, education, and health, this year’s measures include some on hot-button issues, including guns, affirmative action, and labor policy. 2020: A banner year for ballot measures Voters may be exhausted from following the marquee races of the 2020 election, but there’s actually quite a lot going on further down the ballot, with initiatives and referenda. According to the indispensable database at Ballotpedia, voters in 32 states will decide 120 statewide ballot measures on Nov. 3. In this article, we’ve collected some 70 of the most notable and provided brief explanations of each. One of the most popular topics for ballot measures this year (and likely the ones most interesting to the Crystal Ball’s readership) are related to elections and governance. They

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — State supreme court elections are often overlooked, stuck at the end of long ballots and receiving little media coverage. But they can play decisive roles on policies. — Below are rundowns of 10 states that have at least one contested supreme court election this year. The stakes are high in several of these states, as new district lines loom after the 2020 census is compiled. — Among the biggest supreme court races are ones in Michigan and Ohio, where Democrats might be able to topple GOP majorities on the courts. Meanwhile, Republicans are eyeing one election in Illinois as a way to ease the Democratic grip on that state’s high court, while Democrats in Texas are hoping to leverage their gains in the state to break the Republicans’ unanimous hold on the state’s top courts. The race for state supreme courts Even compared to other down-ballot races, state supreme court elections leave many voters nonplussed. Judges are often restricted in what they can discuss in public given concerns about prejudging cases, and many judicial candidates are listed without a partisan affiliation, even if they are receiving formal backing from a party. “Numerous studies have shown

The University of Virginia Center for Politics in partnership with UVA’s Miller Center, Weldon Cooper Center/Sorensen Institute, and Frank Batten School of Leadership and Public Policy have selected 56 students for the newly-created 22nd Century Scholars scholarship program set to launch next week. The Center for Politics has also announced plans for a $3 million endowment, with lead gifts from Eaddo and Peter Kiernan and Teresa Bryce Bazemore and Lenny Bazemore, to create a continuing endowment for this and other internship programs and to serve as a funding source to assist additional students in the future. The talented UVA undergraduate students (rising second, third, and fourth-years) were selected from a pool of 300 student applicants (most from UVA but some from as far as Harvard University) who lost related summer jobs and internships as a result of the pandemic across a wide spectrum of the public sector including: Capitol Hill (with both Democratic and Republican members); within the Executive Branch (the Department of State, Department of Justice, and USAID); the National Institutes of Health; statehouses; local government; as well as domestic and international non-profits and NGOs. The first 56 UVA students to pioneer the 22nd Century Scholars program are: Ellie

The University of Virginia Center for Politics’ latest documentary, CHARLOTTESVILLE, has received the Emmy Award for best Cultural/Topical Documentary from the National Academy of Television Arts and Sciences. The award was announced Saturday, June 22, 2019 at the 61st Capital Emmy Awards in Bethesda, MD. This is the fourth Emmy Award won by the Center for Politics and Community Idea Stations, which regularly partner to produce documentary films for public television on American politics and history. Directed by Paul Tait Roberts and produced by Center for Politics Director and UVA Professor Larry J. Sabato with Center for Politics Director of Programs Glenn Crossman, CHARLOTTESVILLE is the Center’s first two-hour documentary. It traces the tragedies of Aug. 11-12, 2017 in Charlottesville, Virginia, all while asking “How could this happen in modern America?” Firsthand accounts by victims and witnesses who woke to find riots in their backyards and murder in their streets present a compelling account of the city and people of Charlottesville in the wake of shocking racial strife, religious bigotry, government blunders, and political equivocation. “This isn’t just a film about a terrible event in one small college town,” said Larry Sabato. “What happened in Charlottesville in August 2017 is

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — The crisis in Richmond involving the state’s top elected Democrats continues, and the ultimate resolution remains unclear. — Democrats will be trying to win the state House and Senate this November. The election will provide a good test of what really matters: local or national factors. — Virginia is the only state where the party that did not win the state in the 2016 presidential election nonetheless controls both chambers of the state legislature. — A Democratic state legislative takeover might produce the most liberal state government in the modern history of the South, while also setting Virginia apart from the rest of the region. For Virginia Democrats, the agony of the moment mixes with the promise of the future The still-unfolding political crisis in Virginia threatens to derail what could be a breakthrough moment in the South this November for modern Democrats, although it also provides a test of nationalization versus localization that could still break in the Democrats’ favor.   We released a special edition of the Crystal Ball last Tuesday afternoon (Feb. 5) dealing with the crisis in Virginia. Since then, there have been several new developments. Last Wednesday, state Attorney

Today from 9 a.m. to 1 p.m., the University of Virginia Center for Politics hosts the 20th annual American Democracy Conference in Washington D.C. The conference will feature Rep. Adam Schiff (D, CA-28), the likely next chairman of the House Intelligence Committee, and Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX), who just won a second term in a nationally-watched contest, as well as leading journalists and political experts discussing the 2018 midterm election and the upcoming presidential campaign. View the livestream here: The conference schedule is: 9 a.m. Rep. Adam Schiff (D, CA-28), interviewed by Center for Politics Director Larry J. Sabato 9:30 a.m.   The Midterms: What did they mean? Where are we headed? Moderator: Nia-Malika Henderson, CNN senior political reporter Panelists: Glen Bolger, Republican pollster, Public Opinion Strategies Maria Cardona, Democratic strategist, Dewey Square Group Kyle Kondik, managing editor, Sabato’s Crystal Ball Symone Sanders, former national press secretary for Sen. Bernie Sanders’ (I-VT) 2016 presidential campaign 11:15 a.m. Keynote Speaker: Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX) 11:45 a.m. Panel: The Political Road Ahead Moderator: Robert Costa, national political reporter for the Washington Post and moderator of Washington Week on PBS Panelists: Donna Brazile, former chairwoman of the Democratic National Committee Juleanna Glover, former