THE MYTH OF A TOSS-UP ELECTION Tags 2008 President July 24, 2008 “Too close to call.” “Within the margin of error.” “A statistical dead heat.” If you’ve been following news coverage of
A NEW ELECTORATE IN THE MAKING? Tags 2008 President July 17, 2008 Speculation abounds these days about whether this fall’s presidential election will produce a dramatically different electoral map than the virtually
DOES OBAMA HAVE A PROBLEM WITH WHITE VOTERS? Tags 2008 President July 17, 2008 “Poll Finds Obama’s Run Isn’t Closing Divide on Race,” reads the headline on the front page of the July 16th
TIME TO CHANGE THE UNIT RULE Tags 2008 President July 10, 2008 Want to fix an election? No, I’m not proposing any Election Day shenanigans, but rather some preventive maintenance for a
THE MAP Tags 2008 President July 10, 2008 Nobody now knows the exact contours of the November 4th Electoral College map. Nobody will know them until after the
Is Time on John McCain’s Side? Tags 2008 President July 10, 2008 In a recent Crystal Ball article, Michael Baudinet of the University of Virginia Center for Politics argued that despite a
Time Is On My Side: The Nomination Gap Tags 2008 President June 26, 2008 Much has been made in the past of presidential candidates’ campaign theme songs, but there would be no more appropriate
SENATE SENSIBILITIES – The Update Tags 2008 Senate June 19, 2008 Lots of exciting changes have occurred in the nation’s Senate races since we last reviewed them in December 2007. Yet
THE ELECTORAL BAROMETER VS. THE POLLS Tags 2008 President June 19, 2008 A question that keeps arising in connection with this year’s presidential race is why, given the extremely favorable political environment
CONGRESSIONAL COMBAT, CONTINUED Tags 2008 House June 12, 2008 Last December, when we first sketched out the upcoming House elections, we suggested that Democrats were likely to have a
PRIMARY CONCERNS: Tags 2008 President June 12, 2008 For the first time in 40 years, the Democrats and Republicans are each on the verge of nominating a candidate
HOW OBAMA DID IT Tags 2008 President June 5, 2008 Justin M. Sizemore, the latest guest contributor to the Crystal Ball, is a University of Virginia alumnus and attorney who
THE “CONTROVERSIAL” CAUCUSES: Tags 2008 President May 29, 2008 Maybe one of the most intriguing – and nefarious – aspects of this long-running Democratic presidential campaign is that the
CAN MCCAIN OVERCOME THE TRIPLE WHAMMY? Tags 2008 President May 29, 2008 With the long and contentious Democratic nomination race finally winding down, the attention of the media and the public is
OBAMA’S NEXT CHALLENGE: Tags 2008 President May 15, 2008 As Barack Obama prepares to move from the primary to the general election phase of the 2008 presidential election, he