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2012 Governor

Sabato's Crystal Ball

Post-election book will break down 2012

The University of Virginia Center for Politics is pleased to announce that its latest post-election book, Barack Obama and the New America: The 2012 Election and the Changing Face of Politics, is in final production, with a targeted release date of mid-January 2013. Center for Politics Director Larry J. Sabato has brought together top journalists and academics from across the political spectrum to examine every facet of the 2012 election, and what its outcome will mean for the nation moving forward. In frank, accessible prose, each author offers insight that goes beyond the headlines, and dives into the underlying forces and shifts that drove the election from its earliest developments to its dramatic conclusion. This book will feature contributions from: — Alan Abramowitz, Crystal Ball Senior Columnist — Diana Owen, Georgetown University — Jamelle Bouie, American Prospect — James Campbell, SUNY-Buffalo — Kyle Kondik and Geoff Skelley, UVA Center for Politics — Michael Toner, former FEC chairman — Nate Cohn, The New Republic — Rhodes Cook, Crystal Ball Senior Columnist — Robert Costa, National Review — Sean Trende, RealClearPolitics — Susan MacManus, University of South Florida The book will be published by Rowman and Littlefield. For more information and to

UVA Center for Politics

PROJECTION: OBAMA WILL LIKELY WIN SECOND TERM

With a slight, unexpected lift provided by Hurricane Sandy, Mother Nature’s October surprise, President Barack Obama appears poised to win his second term tomorrow. Our final Electoral College projection has the president winning the key swing states of Colorado, Iowa, Nevada, New Hampshire, Ohio and Wisconsin and topping Mitt Romney, with 290 electoral votes. This has been a roller-coaster campaign, though very tight ever since Romney dramatically outshone Obama in the first debate in Denver on Oct. 3. Yet for a challenger to defeat an incumbent, the fates must be with the challenger again and again. Who could have imagined that a Frankenstorm would act as a circuit-breaker on the Republican’s campaign, blowing Romney off center stage for three critical days in the campaign’s last week, while enabling Obama to dominate as presidential comforter-in-chief, assisted by his new bipartisan best friend, Gov. Chris Christie (R)? Adding to the president’s good fortune was a final jobs report that was basically helpful because it wasn’t disastrously bad — that is, the unemployment rate failed to jump back above the psychologically damaging level of 8%. Romney could have used that number to build a crescendo for change. Instead, the final potential obstacle to

Larry J. Sabato, Kyle Kondik, and Geoffrey Skelley

PRESIDENT TOO CLOSE TO CALL; DEMOCRATS HOLD SENATE EDGE PRIOR TO FINAL WEEKEND

Remarkably, after a year of intense campaigning, this election is not in the bag for either major-party candidate. It remains on the edge of the butter knife; the state polling averages tilt the Electoral College slightly to President Obama, and the RealClearPolitics national polling average moved into an exact tie late Wednesday afternoon. On top of it all, a fierce Super Storm intervened, acting as a circuit-breaker that stopped campaigning dead in its tracks for several days in the election’s last week. Have Obama’s presidential actions in the wake of the storm, so highly praised by Republican Gov. Chris Christie of New Jersey, had an effect? Will Friday’s unemployment report — whatever it may show — push the small percentage of remaining undecideds off the fence and toward one of the candidates? This election is going down to the wire, and we will issue our final Electoral College predictions, as we often do, on Monday, the day before the election. In our private conversations with Democratic and Republican leaders, we see two diametrically opposed visions of the electorate — almost parallel universes — and two visions of how the election will shake out. Unsurprisingly, the Democrats AND the Republicans are

Larry J. Sabato and Kyle Kondik

Gubernatorial and House ratings update

While other gubernatorial races may get closer as Election Day nears, right now the top gubernatorial tilts in the country are in two small but politically active states: New Hampshire and Montana. After winning their respective primaries on Sept. 11, ex-state Sen. Maggie Hassan (D) and lawyer Ovide Lamontagne (R), who narrowly lost the GOP Senate nomination to now-Sen. Kelly Ayotte in 2010, have found themselves engaged in a tight battle — polling seems to show the race within the margin of error. We wonder if Lamontagne might be a little too conservative even for New Hampshire, but this race — just like the Granite State’s presidential and U.S. House contests — is a toss-up. On the other side of the country in Montana, state Attorney General Steve Bullock (D) and ex-Rep. Rick Hill (R) are locked in another margin-of-error race. While Mitt Romney should win Montana fairly comfortably, this gubernatorial race is quite competitive, along with the contests for Sen. Jon Tester’s (D) Senate seat and, to a lesser extent, the open U.S. House seat. A recent Mason-Dixon poll showed Bullock up 44% to 43% over Hill — too close to call, obviously. Our sources in Montana tell us

Kyle Kondik

2012 Gubernatorial Update: Republicans Aim for Their High-Water Mark

A record-tying year could be in store for Republicans in 2012. No, we’re not talking about Mitt Romney — even if he wins, Romney will not equal Richard Nixon’s 60.7% popular vote share in 1972 or Ronald Reagan’s 525 electoral votes in 1984. Rather, Republicans can tie a record in another category: the number of state governorships the party has held at one time. During its history, the high-water mark for the GOP was 34 in 1921-22, a figure that they could conceivably match after 2012’s gubernatorial elections. Republicans currently hold 29 governor’s mansions across the country; in order to match their all-time total, Republicans need to win five of the eight governorships currently held by Democrats up for grabs this November. Of the 11 contests — the lion’s share of gubernatorial races are held in midterm years — three are already held by Republicans, and the Crystal Ball rates all three as likely or safe Republican. Of the eight posts held by Democrats, we now rate only three of the races as likely or safe Democratic. The other five could end up being pretty competitive, and if they break for the Republicans, the GOP could be in a dominant

Geoffrey Skelley

Notes on the State of Politics: Recapping Wisconsin

Walker’s Wisconsin win not necessarily a harbinger As soon as the recall of Gov. Scott Walker (R-WI) was finalized in mid-March, the Crystal Ball made Walker a favorite, giving the race a rating of leans Republican. We upgraded his chances roughly two weeks ago to likely Republican, and he ended up winning by a relatively comfortable seven-point margin. Walker led in all recent public polling, and we also sensed that a critical Democratic/Independent slice of the state’s electorate was sick of the constant turmoil caused by recall mania over the past year and a half. As exit polling indicated, many voters viewed recall as a remedy only to be used for official misconduct in office, not to be employed for simple disagreement with an elected official’s policy choices. These voters made the difference for Scott Walker, and they are not necessarily available to Mitt Romney. Wisconsin may or may not turn into a swing state this year — that’s yet to be determined — but the presidential contest will be run under different conditions with two candidates not named Walker and Tom Barrett (the latter having been, for a second time, a second-rate contender). There are five months to go

UVA Center for Politics

Wisconsin Recall: Process Aids Walker

Note: This article is cross-posted from Rhodes Cook’s political blog. At this point, the Wisconsin gubernatorial recall election June 5 appears to be Republican incumbent Scott Walker’s to lose. While the bête noire of liberal Democrats and organized labor for his efforts to curtail the collective bargaining rights of state public employees, Walker has virtually unanimous support within the Republican Party. He has a large financial advantage over his Democratic rival, Milwaukee Mayor Tom Barrett, who had to weather a primary May 8 against a labor-preferred opponent. And for good measure, Walker has already defeated Barrett once for the governorship – in 2010. Yet Walker’s biggest asset may be Wisconsin’s recall process itself. When California voters removed Democratic Gov. Gray Davis from office in October 2003, his future was totally tied to an up and down vote on Davis personally. There was not the diversion of an alternative candidate, with his or her own foibles. California voters were simply asked whether they wanted to recall the incumbent, Yes or No, making Davis’ personality and record the total focus of the recall. In this straightforward vote, the incumbent was removed by the decisive margin of 55% to 45%, with a statewide

Rhodes Cook

2012 GUBERNATORIAL UPDATE: In Wisconsin, Walker hears footsteps

The four gubernatorial contests of 2011 have now passed, and despite some late drama — in the form of a closer-than-expected finish in the West Virginia special election — they all went as expected: Republicans retained seats in Mississippi and Louisiana, and Democrats kept control in West Virginia and Kentucky. That leaves 11 races to be decided next November, in a decidedly light gubernatorial year — which makes life easier for the voters in most states, who will only have to make one executive decision (president) as opposed to two. Of those 11 races, though, none would perhaps be more interesting than if Democrats get their way in Wisconsin and add a 12th race: A recall of their nemesis, Republican Gov. Scott Walker. Walker, elected in the Republican wave of 2010, and his Republican allies in the Wisconsin legislature wasted no time earlier this year in exercising their new-found rights by restricting the rights of public sector unions, to the consternation of waves of protesters at the state capitol in Madison. Democrats and labor fought back by initiating recall elections against six Republican state senators; they defeated two of them, which was one short of the three they needed to

Larry J. Sabato, Kyle Kondik, and Geoffrey Skelley

NOTES ON THE STATE OF POLITICS

Ex-Gov. Lingle is underdog in Hawaii Senate race Strange doings are afoot in deep blue Hawaii, where the new Democratic governor, ex-Rep. Neil Abercrombie, is the most unpopular governor in the nation according to one pollster, and the old governor, Republican Linda Lingle, is now mounting a credible bid for the state’s open Senate seat. Democratic firm Public Policy Polling gave Abercrombie, who saw four top staffers resign earlier this month, the dubious distinction after its polling showed his approval at a dismal 30% approval/56% disapproval. That puts him below some of PPP’s other poor performers, such as Govs. Rick Scott (R-FL) and John Kasich (R-OH). Meanwhile, PPP also found that Lingle, reelected handily in heavily Democratic 2006, was only down six points to the front-runner for the Democratic nomination, Rep. Mazie Hirono. Lingle was leading the other contender for the nomination, ex-Rep. Ed Case. Case — whose congressional bid last year against now-Rep. Colleen Hanabusa split the Democratic vote, allowing Republican Charles Djou to briefly hold Hawaii’s First Congressional District after a special election — is deeply disliked by the Aloha State’s Democratic establishment, so Hirono is the preferred candidate. Lingle, who doesn’t shy away from being called a

UVA Center for Politics

Updating the Governors Races

Although the calendar for gubernatorial elections in the 2011-2012 cycle is relatively light since most of the action in statehouse races occurred last year, several notable contests are developing for this November and next. States such as Indiana, Missouri and North Carolina, which happen to have been the three closest states in the 2008 presidential election, could see competitive races for governor in 2012, and two off-year elections — in West Virginia and Kentucky — will test Democrats’ strength in deeply Red states. Analysis of each race begins after Chart 1: Chart 1: 2011-2012 Governor ratings State Incumbent Possible Primary Challengers Major Party Opposition Party Rating DE Jack Markell (Running) Safe D IN Mitch Daniels(Term-limited) – Rep. Mike Pence– Businessman Jim Wallace – Ex-IN House Speaker John Gregg– Businessman Thomas Lenfert Likely R KY Steve Beshear (Running) – KY Senate Pres. David Williams Likely D LA Bobby Jindal (Running) – State Sen. Rob Marionneaux?– Teacher Tara Hollis Solid R MO Jay Nixon (Running) – LG Peter Kinder Likely D MS Haley Barbour (Term-limited) – LG Phil Bryant– Businessman Dave Dennis– County Supervisor Hudson Holliday– Tea Party activist James Broadwater– Businessman Ron Williams – Hattiesburg Mayor Johnny DuPree– Attorney Bill Luckett–

Larry J. Sabato and Kyle Kondik

The Early Line—Second Take: 15 Governorships of 2011-12

After a record-setting number of 37 governorships on the 2010 ballot, it is something of a letdown to see a mere 15 statehouses up for grabs in the off-year election of 2011 (just 4) and the 2012 general election (11 more). Statehouse contests are intrinsically interesting, and voters take them seriously. People know they can survive almost any talkfest in the 100-member U.S. Senate, but their one-and-only state chief executive makes a great deal of daily difference to their lives. Fortunately, about half the roster of gubernatorial match-ups promise to be competitive and well worth a look. There are 9 Democratic seats up to 5 Republican seats. Three incumbents are term-limited (Mitch Daniels, R-IN, Haley Barbour, R-MS, and Brian Schweitzer, D-MT), and at least one more governor is expected to retire, Chris Gregoire (D-WA). At least at the starting gate, two Democratic incumbents are considered highly vulnerable, Govs. Beverly Perdue of North Carolina and Earl Ray Tomblin of West Virginia. By the way, West Virginia has two elections—a special one-year-term election in October 2011, due to the resignation of Gov. Joe Manchin to take a Senate seat, then the regular four-year-term election in November 2012. It is too soon to

Larry J. Sabato

THE EARLY LINE: 14 GOVERNORSHIPS OF 2011-12

After a record-setting number of 37 governorships on the 2010 ballot, it is something of a letdown to see a mere 14 statehouses up for grabs in the off-year election of 2011 (just 3) and the 2012 general election (11 more). Statehouse contests are intrinsically interesting, and voters take them seriously. People know they can survive almost any talkfest in the 100-member U.S. Senate, but their one-and-only state chief executive makes a great deal of daily difference to their lives. Fortunately, about half the roster of gubernatorial match-ups promise to be competitive and well worth a look. There are 9 Democratic seats up to 5 Republican seats. Three incumbents are term-limited (Mitch Daniels, R-IN, Haley Barbour, R-MS, and Brian Schweitzer, D-MT), and at least one more governor is expected to retire, Chris Gregoire (D-WA). At least at the starting gate, two Democratic incumbents are considered highly vulnerable, Govs. Beverly Perdue of North Carolina and Earl Ray Tomblin of West Virginia. It is too soon to say precisely, but the Crystal Ball’s early line suggests the Republicans may pad their current 29-to-20 statehouse edge over the Democrats by one to three. (Independent Gov. Linc Chafee holds the Rhode Island governorship.) Here

Larry J. Sabato