2012 President

Note: This article is cross-posted from Rhodes Cook’s political blog. Unlike some of his Republican rivals, Mitt Romney has spent little time this year comparing himself to Ronald Reagan. But when it comes to their pursuit of the Republican presidential nomination, similarities abound. Both lost their first full-throated bid for their party’s nomination – Reagan in 1976, Romney in 2008 (albeit Reagan also lost an earlier 11th-hour try in 1968 whose formal candidacy was measured in days rather than months). Both Republicans were able to follow their losing efforts with more successful campaigns – Reagan in 1980, Romney this year. Both were punctuated by decisive early-season primary victories in New Hampshire, Florida and Illinois. And in Illinois, their victory margins were virtually identical. Reagan polled 48% of the Republican primary vote in 1980 to defeat home state Rep. John Anderson by a margin of nearly 12 percentage points. Romney drew 47% of the vote this year to triumph over Rick Santorum also by almost a dozen points. Of Illinois’ three basic elements – Cook County (Chicago and its immediate environs), the suburban “collar counties” that ring Chicago on three sides, and the vast, largely rural “downstate” – Reagan and Romney

Mitt Romney’s big win in the Illinois primary is not a game-changer, mainly because the likely outcome of the game — the race for the Republican presidential nomination — is the same today as it was Tuesday morning: Romney is the highly probable nominee. Romney can’t ignore the remaining contests, and he has to perform as expected or better. Yet what truly matters now is how Romney finishes out a tough season and prepares to push the re-set button at his convention. Will he limp or soar into Tampa? Republicans are tired of watching an unscathed Obama while GOP fratricide grabs the headlines, but that part of the process may be coming to a close. In the short term, Romney, the beneficiary of so many lucky breaks throughout this cycle, gets another little bonus on Saturday: While he is almost assuredly headed for a loss in the next primary on the schedule — Deep South Louisiana — the contest is being held on Saturday, when probably few will be paying attention. Another bonus: because of Louisiana’s complicated rules, only 20 delegates will be awarded Saturday anyway; so long as Romney gets over 25% — not a sure thing — Santorum

Note: This article is cross-posted from Rhodes Cook’s political blog. One of Mitt Romney’s basic arguments these days is that he is well ahead of his Republican presidential rivals in both the number of delegates and popular votes won. That is true. But if he goes on to win his party’s nomination, it is likely to be with the lowest share of the nationwide GOP primary vote since the era of the primary-dominated nominating process began in the 1970s. Since then, only one Republican has been nominated that received less than a majority of his party’s overall primary ballots. That was John McCain in 2008, who drew 47%. Thus far in 2012, Romney has collected 38% of the 8.8 million primary votes cast (and 33% of the much smaller universe of 435,000 or so caucus votes). Certainly, delegates are the coin of the realm when it comes to presidential nominating politics. But a strong primary vote can demonstrate the basic vote-getting appeal of the front-runner as well as his ability to rally the broad elements of his party in fairly short order. That, so far, Romney has not done. In actual primary votes, he has 3.4 million – 1.1 million

Three of the four candidates for the Republican presidential nomination — Rick Santorum, Newt Gingrich and Ron Paul — might soon agree with T.S. Eliot: for them, April may indeed be “the cruelest month.” That’s because their front-running rival, Mitt Romney, appears poised to further pad his lead in delegates in upcoming Republican nomination contests, starting with Illinois next Tuesday and through a northeastern primary day on April 24. From now until the end of April, we expect Romney to win not only the majority of nominating contests, but also the majority of delegates awarded in these contests. It’s fair to ask how Romney’s position can be so strong after finishing third in the two major primaries held on Tuesday, Alabama and Mississippi. The most important thing anyone can do on any primary night is to remember the calendar — not the primary schedule but the general election date. The two Deep South primaries appear critical, yet they will be long forgotten by Labor Day, much less Nov. 6. Barring a massive, difficult to fathom shift in this contest, Mitt Romney has a better than 80% chance to be the GOP nominee. No amount of wild tapping on CNN’s magic

Mitt Romney won the majority of states on Super Tuesday, but he was unable to knock out his rivals. This race may go all the way to June, and in the latest installment of our Crystal Ball video series, we point out the six days worth watching between now and the end of the Republican nomination season on June 26. Plus, we answer viewer questions on primary/caucus polling, Virginia’s not-so Super Tuesday and other topics.

Over the last half century of presidential primaries, there has been an almost inviolable rule of thumb: The candidate that wraps up his party’s nomination first goes on to win the general election. There is a certain logic to that. Candidates that can eliminate their primary rivals most quickly have more time to unify their party and prepare for the fall campaign. And in the process, they usually show themselves to be potent vote-getters with broad appeal, particularly to the various elements within their own party. That is basically how it has worked from 1964 until now, with the conspicuous exception of 2008. Then, the negative effect of a lengthy primary campaign was thrown into question. Democrat Barack Obama took three months longer to nail down his party’s nomination than Republican John McCain. Yet Obama won the race handily in November. The long Democratic battle with Hillary Clinton is credited with providing Obama with a host of assets. It forced him to improve his performance as a candidate and to organize not just the early states but the entire country. And the high energy Obama-Clinton struggle enabled the Democrats to dominate the national debate at a time the 2008 campaign

For Buckeye State political watchers on Super Tuesday, there was a general election feel on a Republican primary election night. The candidate winning in most of the Democratic counties — in this case, Mitt Romney — got off to an early lead. Then the rural Republican counties came in, switching the vote back to the candidate winning most of those counties — in this case, Rick Santorum. Finally, the big urban counties — Franklin (Columbus), Hamilton (Cincinnati) and especially Cuyahoga (Cleveland) — reported their results, which in this case were enough to put the candidate that those counties preferred, Mitt Romney, over the top. We knew before Super Tuesday started that Mitt Romney was going to win the majority of delegates in Ohio; Rick Santorum guaranteed that when he failed to file for 18 delegates. So even though from a delegate standpoint the popular vote winner of the Buckeye State was not that important, psychologically the victor was crucial. And Romney, though barely, got the psychological boost from a statewide win in the most important Super Tuesday state. This proves anew that a few votes in American politics can make all the difference (just ask George W. Bush about 537

Note: This article is cross-posted from Rhodes Cook’s political blog. In Republican voting so far this year, it has been evident that Mitt Romney can draw votes in metropolitan areas with their large numbers of well-off, well educated voters. But the Republican front-runner has struggled mightily in many states to win votes in rural areas and small towns, Main Street America if you will. The dynamic was first apparent with Romney’s virtual tie with Rick Santorum in Iowa. Santorum swept nearly two-thirds of the 99 counties, but Romney carried the five leading counties (in terms of the size of the Republican caucus vote). There was a similar split this past week in Michigan, as Santorum carried nearly two-thirds of the state’s 83 counties. But Romney won big in the vote-rich Detroit area. He swept Wayne County (which includes the city of Detroit) and its two major suburban counties (Macomb and Oakland) by a combined margin of nearly 50,000 votes in a primary that Romney won statewide by barely 30,000. In between the Republican balloting in Iowa and Michigan, Romney carried the two leading counties in New Hampshire, Hillsborough (Manchester) and Rockingham (Portsmouth). He won the two leading counties in Nevada,

What’s the outlook for Super Tuesday? A mixed bag of possibilities for GOP presidential candidates Mitt Romney, Rick Santorum, Newt Gingrich, and Ron Paul. Will Romney make a play in the South? Can Paul win a caucus? And what will happen in Ohio, the most crucial contest on March 6? Get our take — and answers to your questions — in the latest Crystal Ball video. John Bull — the British equivalent of Uncle Sam — was prominently featured on British armed forces recruiting posters during World War I, pointing a finger and asking, “Who’s absent? — Is it you?” In the case of the Virginia primary, he who is absent is Rick Santorum. And it’s going to cost him, big time, on Super Tuesday. Because only Mitt Romney and Ron Paul are on the Virginia ballot, Romney — who we expect to sweep the Old Dominion — starts off with a big lead on Super Tuesday courtesy of Virginia. That built-in advantage will make it exceedingly difficult for Santorum to finish the day with more delegates than Romney. In fact, we expect Romney to win more delegates on Super Tuesday than Rick Santorum, probably many more. Being that this

Phew! The sound you hear is the loud sigh of relief from the Romney campaign. A great deal was on the line for Mitt Romney in the oddest of places — the state of his birth, the state where his dad served as governor, the state he won against John McCain four years ago. A few months ago, no one could have imagined Mitt Romney being hard-pressed in Michigan, and yet it happened. Rick Santorum may have lost by a few points, but he scored a moral victory by making Romney work for the Wolverine State. This was a real contest that Santorum might have won had Romney not put the pedal to the metal. After all, based on pre-primary surveys and exit polling, Santorum won the actual Election Day vote, suggesting both that Romney’s superior organization delivered for him again in absentee balloting but also that among the party faithful who simply showed up on Election Day, Romney continues to have considerable problems. By most estimates, Romney outspent Santorum by about three to two, counting the SuperPAC expenditures, and he called upon all of the establishment resources available to him in and around Michigan, from Gov. Rick Snyder on

As John U. Bacon points out in his new book about University of Michigan football, Three and Out, the Wolverines’ fight song, “The Victors,” is unique among college fight songs in that, instead of exhorting the squad on to victory, it instead celebrates a victory already won. At the risk of being similarly presumptuous, and barring a Hail Mary by one of his opponents, the Crystal Ball believes that Mitt Romney will win Michigan next Tuesday, along with the other contest being held that day in Arizona. Why? It appears that Romney’s superior organization and campaign advertising juggernaut is moving the numbers in his direction in both states. After trailing Santorum in Michigan for much of the past two weeks, new polls indicate that the state is now moving back into Romney’s corner. As of Friday afternoon, he had grabbed a narrow edge in the RealClearPolitics Michigan primary polling average. Santorum’s defensive debate performance on Wednesday did not help his cause. The delegate battle, however, is a different story. Even though we expect Romney to win the popular vote in Michigan, it’s quite possible that Santorum will net more of the state’s 30 delegates (the state’s delegate count was cut

What a long, strange trip it’s been — and it is only February. Real votes make clear what polls cannot fully pick up. The Republican election season has been shaped by two forces, other than the obvious one to oust President Obama. First, the strongest potential candidates did not enter the fray, and the remaining contenders do not satisfy most GOP voters. At every polling opportunity, Republicans have expressed their desire for a wider choice. Put another way, Republicans would love to combine the economic acumen of Mitt Romney, the social conservatism of Rick Santorum, the debating skills of Newt Gingrich and the enthusiasm of young voters for Ron Paul into one candidate. That feat must await several generations of advances in genetic engineering. The second force that has defined the GOP contest cannot be denied. A sizable section of the party base, arguably a majority, does not connect with or trust the establishment pick for the nomination, Mitt Romney. The old “dog food” anecdote is overused, but never has it applied more precisely. Romney’s can of dog food has the handsomest label, the best placement in the store by the grocers, the most astute TV advertising, but the only

Had evangelical Christians had their way in 2006’s Pennsylvania Senate election, then-Sen. Rick Santorum (R) would have been reelected in a landslide: among the quarter of the electorate that identified themselves as such, Santorum won 59% to 41%. The trouble for Santorum was that, of the non-evangelical three-fourths of the electorate, Santorum lost to his opponent, Democrat Bob Casey, by two to one. Santorum was defeated in that race by about 17 points — one of the worst drubbings in modern history for an incumbent senator (see chart at this link). If anything, looking at a year when Santorum did poorly makes it easy to identify his strength, which is with religious conservatives who are concerned about social issues. Of nine contests in this year’s Republican primary so far, only the first five — Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina, Florida and Nevada — have exit polling. In all of those states Santorum did better among self-described “very conservative” and “evangelical/born-again Christians” than he did overall. (And, you’ll recall, he won just Iowa, very narrowly.) Additionally, Santorum scored well with voters who were most interested in conservative social issues. For instance, in South Carolina, where Santorum placed third with 17% of

Correction: This article originally omitted James K. Polk, who won the presidency in 1844 despite losing his home state of Tennessee by 0.1 percentage points to Henry Clay. If Mitt Romney wins the nomination, he may face an uphill battle in winning the presidency because of an obscure historical oddity: Presidents who lose their home state rarely win the presidency. Considering that Barack Obama won Massachusetts by nearly 26% over John McCain in 2008, it seems almost certain that the incumbent will win the Bay State, where Romney was governor, again in 2012. There have been only two presidents who have lost their home state and gone on to win the presidency: the first was Democrat James K. Polk, who narrowly lost Tennessee to Kentucky’s Henry Clay, a Whig, in 1844. The other was Democrat Woodrow Wilson, who failed to win New Jersey in his 1916 reelection bid against Republican Charles Evan Hughes (Wilson won New Jersey in 1912). Wilson and Polk aside, a presidential nominee’s failure to win his home state has always proven fatal, sometimes agonizingly so: in 2000, for instance, Florida wouldn’t have made a bit of difference in the outcome if Democrat Al Gore had carried

Twitter is a perfect medium for the age of short attention spans. With a limit of 140 characters per tweet, one can’t say anything especially nuanced — though it is true that short phrases like “I love you” and “We declare war” have great power. Despite its limitations, every now and then a tweet can cause a stir. I recently had that experience, thanks to Newt Gingrich. It was debate number 19, a few days before the Jan. 31 Florida primary. In responding to an attack from Gingrich, Mitt Romney launched into an explanation of his controversial vote for liberal Paul Tsongas in the 1992 Massachusetts Democratic presidential primary. Said Mitt: “I’ve never voted for a Democrat when there was a Republican on the ballot… I have always voted for a Republican any time there was a Republican on the ballot.” If there’s one thing I know, it is elections, and I immediately recognized that Romney had uttered a falsehood. My colleague Kyle Kondik of the U.Va. Center for Politics confirmed my memory in our handy CQ Press Guide to U.S. Elections, and I quickly tweeted the following: “I don’t believe Mitt told truth about 1992. He voted Tsongas in