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2014 House

Sabato's Crystal Ball

Are Voters Drifting Away?

For the first decade after Sept. 11, national elections showed a steady rise in voter turnout. The number of ballots cast in presidential elections jumped from 105 million in 2000 to a record 131 million in 2008, an increase of 25% in just eight years. Similarly, the midterm congressional turnout swelled from 66 million in 1998 to an all-time high of 86.5 million in 2010, a 31% increase over a dozen years. The number of ballots cast from election to election should be increasing at least a bit as the size of the voting-eligible population constantly grows. But in the last two national elections, 2012 and 2014, the upward turnout trend has been broken. The total votes cast in the 2012 presidential election were down by more than 2 million from four years earlier, while the midterm vote last fall for the House of Representatives (the only office contested in all 50 states in a midterm election) dropped by more than 8.5 million votes from 2010. It marked the first time since 1996-98 that the turnout declined in back-to-back national elections. What has happened? Surveys point to an increasingly busy and mobile society, where voting is not a high priority

Rhodes Cook

Now Available: The Surge, the Center for Politics’ New Book Analyzing the 2014 and 2016 Elections

The Surge, the University of Virginia Center for Politics’ postmortem of the 2014 midterms and preview of the 2016 presidential election, is now available. Edited by Center for Politics Director Larry J. Sabato and Sabato’s Crystal Ball editors Kyle Kondik and Geoffrey Skelley and published by Rowman and Littlefield, The Surge: 2014’s Big GOP Win and What It Means for the Next Presidential Election brings together some of the nation’s top political journalists and analysts to explain why and how the Republicans took the Senate and where American politics stands as the country’s polarized political parties gear up for 2016. The Surge can be purchased via Rowman and Littlefield, Amazon, Barnes & Noble, and other major booksellers. The contributors and their chapters are: Larry J. Sabato provides an overview of the 2014 election, including a look at historical election patterns and demographic voting trends. Long-time political expert and Crystal Ball Senior Columnist Rhodes Cook explores the 2014 primary season and how those nominating contests influenced the November results. Politico’s James Hohmann and the Crystal Ball’s Kyle Kondik and Geoffrey Skelley provide in-depth analysis of, respectively, the Senate, House, and gubernatorial races. Former Federal Election Commission chairman Michael Toner and former

UVA Center for Politics

What a Drag

U.Va. Center for Politics Director Larry J. Sabato is contributing a regular column to Politico Magazine. This week, he examines the presidential party’s penalty for holding the White House: losing ground everywhere else. This article originally appeared in Politico Magazine on Dec. 1, 2014. Think of the billions the parties must raise to elect a president in 2016. Consider the millions of paid and volunteer man-hours that will be devoted to this enterprise. The White House is the center of the partisan political universe, and Democrats and Republicans alike measure success or failure by their ability to win and hold the presidency. Instead, maybe they ought to hope they lose. The surest price the winning party will pay is defeat of hundreds of their most promising candidates and officeholders for Senate, House, governorships, and state legislative posts. Every eight-year presidency has emptied the benches for the triumphant party, and recently it has gotten even worse. (By the way, the two recent one-term presidents, Jimmy Carter and George H.W. Bush, also cost their parties many lower-level offices, but in both cases this didn’t happen until they were defeated for reelection.) Since World War II there have been eight two-term presidencies: Dwight

Larry J. Sabato

University of Virginia Center for Politics to Host 16th Annual American Democracy Conference

Today, Nov. 20, the University of Virginia Center for Politics will host the 16th annual American Democracy Conference. The conference, which will be held at Alumni Hall on the Grounds of the University of Virginia, will feature panels of leading journalists and political experts focused on the results of the recent midterm elections and the upcoming presidential race. The event, which will begin at 10:30 a.m., is free and open to the public with advance registration, and the press is invited to attend. For more information or to register, please visit The conference will be livestreamed online at the following link: The panels are: 10:30 a.m. to noon: Panel I: The 2014 midterm Moderator: Larry J. Sabato, director of the U.Va. Center for Politics Panelists: Alan Abramowitz, Sabato’s Crystal Ball senior columnist and Emory University professor Fred Barnes, executive editor of The Weekly Standard Chris LaCivita, Republican political consultant who worked on Sen. Pat Roberts’ (R-KS) successful reelection bid Ali Lapp, executive director of House Majority PAC, a Democratic Super PAC Sean Trende, RealClearPolitics senior election analyst and Sabato’s Crystal Ball senior columnist 12:45 p.m. to 2:15 p.m.: Panel II: What to expect in 2016 Moderator: Geoffrey Skelley,

UVA Center for Politics

14 from ’14: Quick Takes on the Midterm

After going over the results from last week, we had a number of bite-sized observations to offer — 14, to be exact: 1. The polls really were worse than usual This cycle featured the largest average miss by the two major poll aggregators, RealClearPolitics and HuffPost Pollster, in recent competitive Senate races. This isn’t a slight toward them — after all, they simply use the data that’s available, and it seems the data may be getting worse. While the median miss has been somewhat up and down, the average has increased relatively consistently cycle-to-cycle. Why? Prior to this cycle, neither average had missed a race by double-digits, but this time at least one average missed the Arkansas, Kansas, and Virginia races by at least 10 points. Below you’ll find the median and average miss per election cycle from 2006-2014 for both major poll averages. Table 1: Median and average miss per election cycle for RealClearPolitics and HuffPost Pollster poll averages, 2006-2014 Chart 1: Median and average miss per election cycle for RealClearPolitics and HuffPost Pollster poll averages, 2006-2014 Notes: 2014 Senate data based on margins as of Wednesday, excludes yet-to-be-determined Louisiana contest. Races included in the analysis are all contests

Kyle Kondik and Geoffrey Skelley

Comparing Wave and Calm Elections

Is there something magical and mystical about the number five in elections? After the tsunami of 1994, there were five straight elections that were “calm elections” (1996-2004) and then five straight elections that could be considered wave elections. (A valid argument can be made that despite the size of the Obama win, Democratic gains in the House and Senate in 2012 were so underwhelming that the “wave” designation was overstated.) Well, the answer is no. There is nothing magical about two very different sets of five elections, but the differences in both sets underscore how much volatility there is in American politics today. Let’s look at the House first. Table 1 below shows calm, clear sailing for incumbents in most of the 1996-2004 elections, while it shows a whiplash of waves from 2006-2014: Table 1: House election results, 1996-2014 Several points jump out: From 1996 to 2004, 31 Republican incumbents and 14 Democratic incumbents lost for a total of 45 incumbent losers. Of those 31 Republicans, 18 lost in the 1996 correction after the 1994 tsunami when a number of Republicans won seats they had no business holding. Comparatively, from 2006-2014, 59 Republican and at least 73 Democratic incumbents lost

Glen Bolger

Yup, It Was a Wave

A version of this article originally appeared in Politico Magazine Wednesday evening. It might not have been 1994 or 2010, but 2014 was a wave all its own: A late-breaking surge that lifted Republicans to some surprisingly strong performances across the country. Notably, though, the argument for this election being a “wave” has more to do with the House and gubernatorial races, as opposed to the main event, the Republican Senate takeover. The GOP is likely to bump up its House majority to its highest total since the one it held after the 1928 election, netting at least a dozen additional House seats. The Republicans won some Democratic-leaning territory in places like Illinois and New York that might be difficult to hold in future elections, but they also won a few “white whale” conservative districts in places like Georgia, Utah, and West Virginia that they should have little trouble keeping for the foreseeable future. The Democrats’ road to a future House majority is steep, because their last redoubts in the Deep South and Appalachia are now gone, and they failed to make inroads in the suburban and exurban seats that are now so crucial to them to build a House

Larry J. Sabato, Kyle Kondik, and Geoffrey Skelley

Crystal Ball 2014: So how’d we do?

On Monday, we offered our final calls in all 507 of the Senate, House, and gubernatorial races. As of this writing, 490 of those races have been called for one party or the other, and we got 476 correct (97%). We did best in the category everyone was watching most closely, the battle for the Senate, successfully calling 32 of the 33 called races. Of the three races remaining, it appears that our Leans Republican rating of Alaska will eventually be correct, and we also see Sen. Mary Landrieu (D-LA) as a decided underdog going into her Dec. 6 runoff with Rep. Bill Cassidy (R). In one of the shockers of the evening, Sen. Mark Warner (D-VA) and former Republican National Committee Chairman Ed Gillespie (R) remain locked in a tight battle, though Warner’s small lead will probably hold up. Still, we tip our cap to Gillespie for running a strong race: This contest was a lot closer than we and a large bipartisan majority of other analysts expected. Still, when it’s all said and done, it looks like the new Senate is going to be 54-46 Republican, almost exactly as we called it (53-47 Republican). Our gutsiest Senate call

Larry J. Sabato, Kyle Kondik, and Geoffrey Skelley

2014 State Legislative Election Wrap

After a day of double checking partisan composition numbers in the more than 6,000 legislative races this year, the extent of Republican success in this year’s legislative and governor’s elections is mostly clear. Suffice it to say, it was a banner election for the GOP. Republicans ran the proverbial table, taking the majority in 11 legislative chambers previously held by Democrats. Those chambers were: Colorado Senate (conceivable that Dems could still hold on after recounts), Maine Senate, Minnesota House, Nevada Assembly, Nevada Senate, New Hampshire House, New York Senate, New Mexico House, Washington Senate, and the West Virginia House and Senate. Republicans are now in charge of 68 of the 98 partisan legislative chambers and control 30 state legislatures. It is the most legislatures they have held in over 150 years, matching the previous high point after the 1920 election. For governors, Republicans netted three after switching seats in Arkansas, Illinois, Maryland and Massachusetts (although they might lose Alaska if Bill Walker, an independent, holds on to defeat Republican Gov. Sean Parnell). Democrat Tom Wolf won a GOP governorship in Pennsylvania. Factoring in all of those changes, here are the bottom line numbers (the Nebraska unicameral legislature is nonpartisan): Legislatures:

Tim Storey

The Crystal Ball’s Final 2014 Picks

If you’re in Charlottesville tonight, please join the Crystal Ball team — Larry J. Sabato, Kyle Kondik, and Geoffrey Skelley — for a free presentation on the 2014 midterms at 7 p.m. in Wilson Hall, Room 402 on the Grounds of the University of Virginia. Visit the U.Va. Center for Politics website for more information and to register to attend. Table 1: 2014 Crystal Ball projected totals As is our longstanding tradition, we at the Crystal Ball attempt to call every election for House, Senate, governor, and in presidential years, the Electoral College. After studying these campaigns for months or years, we believe we owe you our best judgment about the outcomes. While we’re proud of our overall record over the years, we always miss a few calls, sometimes more than a few. Toss-ups are vexing, and the massive amounts of intelligence from polls, analysts, campaign managers, and party officials can be exceptionally contradictory. Not many of our sources have ever attempted to mislead us; they sincerely believe this candidate or that one will win — and smart people on the other side of the aisle are equally convinced their nominees will triumph. The day after any election (or runoff

Larry J. Sabato, Kyle Kondik, and Geoffrey Skelley

State Legislative Elections Provide Down-Ballot Drama

While the nation’s attention is fixated on the congressional and gubernatorial races, it’s important to remember that the vast majority of states this year will also decide their state legislative contests. Walking us through the state legislative picture once again this cycle is Tim Storey, one of the country’s top experts on state-level politics. Storey is an elections analyst with the National Conference of State Legislatures, where he has been researching legislative elections and redistricting for more than 20 years. The finish line is in sight. Only hours remain before states tally 2014 general election ballots. Democrats, by all rights, should be gasping for air and eager to put the midterms in the rearview mirror and turn toward 2016. However, the matter of which party will emerge with a decisive win on Tuesday is still murky. Democrats will almost certainly not defy historic trends and gain seats in legislatures, but Democratic losses might be relatively modest and tempered by gaining key governor’s mansions. On the other hand, this election could leave Republicans in their strongest position in state legislatures in American history. The midterm elections are almost never friendly to the party holding the White House when it comes to

Tim Storey

House 2014: Calling the Toss-ups, Take 1

Republicans and Democrats on both sides of the House campaign are fretting. The elephants worry that they have not clearly put away any single Democratic House incumbent — which is true — and that they are going to underperform, not just by a seat or two, the goal of winning 245 seats set by National Republican Congressional Committee Chairman Greg Walden (R, OR-2). A 245-seat House Republican majority would require the party to net 11 seats. Meanwhile, the donkeys are alarmed at a gradually expanding map of vulnerable seats that require outside help — this is also true — and a deteriorating national environment that could see a larger-than-expected number of seats slip away. That means losses in the double digits and potentially the biggest House Republican majority since before the Great Depression (247 Republican seats, or a GOP gain of 13). To be fair, there’s probably some expectations-setting going on by operatives on both sides: Given all the legitimate uncertainty, there’s a natural inclination to downplay one’s chances in order to more credibly claim that expectations have been beaten on Election Day. Here’s what we know, or think we know: Democrats will not net seats this year. If they

Kyle Kondik

Strange Cross-Currents in the Race for the House

There are two vastly different lead paragraphs I could have used to open this story about the state of the race for the U.S. House. Instead of picking one, I’ll just include them both, and then try to explain the odd cross-currents we’re seeing in House races across the country. Lead No. 1: With 12 days to go, House Republicans are beginning to expand their list of targets. They and their allies are plopping down money in Democratic-held blue districts in places like Hawaii, Iowa, and Nevada, all in an effort to push GOP gains into the double-digits. The Republican tide is so high that an indicted congressman in a swing district is in decent shape to win reelection. Lead No. 2: For a party in line to expand their House majority this November, Republicans are sure having to shore up some deep red territory: Outside conservative groups are now spending big to hold Republican districts won comfortably by Mitt Romney in states like Arkansas, Nebraska, and West Virginia, and the GOP has had a hard time clearly putting away seats they’ve been targeting all cycle. So what’s going on? Here’s where we see the House at this point: Republicans

Kyle Kondik

2014: A Tale of Two Elections

As we approach the home stretch, 2014 has turned into a tale of two elections. On the one hand, this is a classic sixth-year itch election where the incumbent president’s party is going to suffer losses in both houses of Congress. We’re just arguing about exactly how many. Overall, it is indisputable that Republicans will have more critical victories to celebrate than Democrats when all the ballots are counted, and they have a strong and increasing chance to control the next Senate. On the other hand, there are unusual and even a few bizarre features on the landscape. Some Democratic incumbent senators have been hanging tough in heavily Republican territory; months ago, many observers thought they’d be quickly swept out to sea in a red tide. The GOP is having a difficult time making inroads in competitive “purple” states and districts, and very little progress at all has been seen in Democratic blue areas. Contests where Republicans should have been dominant (Alaska, Georgia, Kansas, and South Dakota) have teeter-tottered back and forth, necessitating more competitive rating changes and, in some cases, even becoming Toss-ups — or worse. The “hot” trend, though it may fizzle in the end, is the emergence

Larry J. Sabato and Kyle Kondik

The Kennedy Half Century Now Available in Paperback

Available now: The Kennedy Half Century in paperback, featuring new interviews, scientific studies, and empirical data. Among the new material contained in the paperback edition: A well-placed CIA employee reveals what really happened inside agency headquarters on Nov. 22, 1963. New analysis that further demonstrates the unreliability of the police Dictabelt audio evidence from Nov. 22, 1963, which the House Select Committee on Assassinations used as proof that two shooters were present in Dealey Plaza. Interesting new anecdotes and information about Nov. 22, 1963, from a diverse group of individuals. To purchase, visit one of the following sellers: Amazon Barnes & Noble IndieBound Free online JFK course updated with new lessons In conjunction with the new paperback edition of The Kennedy Half Century, the book’s popular massive open online course (MOOC) is returning with five additional lessons based on the new material. The MOOC will be available on demand from both Coursera and iTunes U. The JFK Half Century App, produced by the University of Virginia Center for Politics, can also be downloaded for Android and Apple devices. The app features the complete Dallas police recordings from Nov. 22, 1963, which the Center acquired from the National Archives and is

UVA Center for Politics