2024 Senate Archives - Sabato's Crystal Ball

The End of the Line for Red State Senate Democrats

December 5, 2024

As part of capturing the Senate this year, Republicans at long last knocked out the final remaining Democratic senators from a group of 20 states that have consistently voted Republican for president since at least the 2000 election.

The 2024 Senate Undervote: Not High By Historical Standards

November 21, 2024

The size of this year's "undervote" in Senate races was very similar to what we have seen in other recent presidential cycles

The State-Level Differences Between the Presidential and Senate Races

November 14, 2024

In 2024, Senate Democrats held at least 4 seats in states that Trump won at the presidential level, marking somewhat of a return of ticket-splitting. Republican candidates also did notably better than Trump in some states.

Our Final 2024 Ratings

November 4, 2024

Our final race ratings for the 2024 presidential, Senate, House, and gubernatorial races

Notes on the State of the Election: Close States, House and Senate polls, and More

November 1, 2024

A history of close states in recent presidential races, plus a look at House and Senate polling and trends

Rating Changes: Pushing House Toss-ups, Nebraska Senate to Leans Republican

October 24, 2024

We are pushing a few House Toss-ups out of that category this week, leaving revised ratings that show 212 House seats at least leaning Republican, 209 at least leaning Democratic, and 14 Toss-ups. The Nebraska Senate race also moves to Leans Republican.

The Senate: Republicans Measure Majority in Midwest as Democrats Seek Targets

October 18, 2024

Republicans remain on track to win at least 51 Senate seats in November, which would allow them to take control of the chamber. How big of a majority they can win is likeliest to be determined in the Midwest.

Rating Changes: Nebraska and North Carolina

September 25, 2024

The single electoral vote in NE-2 moves to Likely Democratic, and the state's Senate race moves to Likely Republican. We also explain our recent rating change in the NC gubernatorial race.

Montana Senate Race Moves from Toss-up to Leans Republican

September 6, 2024

The Montana Senate race moves from Toss-up to Leans Republican. This moves means that a majority of Senate seats, 51, now are rated Safe, Likely, or Leaning Republican in our ratings.

The Race for the Senate: Democrats Still in the Game, but Republicans Have the Upper Hand

September 5, 2024

We continue to expect Republicans to flip the Senate this year, given the huge level of Democratic exposure.

Incumbent Senators Do Not Need to Poll at 50% to Win

August 15, 2024

Incumbent senators who polled below 50% in the summertime–or even right before the election–are not doomed to defeat.

President vs. Senate: What to Watch in the Polls, and What History Suggests

June 6, 2024

Swing state polls have shown Democrats doing better in Senate races than Joe Biden is doing in the presidential race. We look at the declining (but not quite dead) recent history of Senate ticket-splitting and how we're approaching this dynamic.

Notes on the State of Politics: May 15, 2024

May 15, 2024

In Maryland, Prince George's County Executive Angela Alsobrooks (D) comfortably defeated Rep. David Trone (D, MD-6). Gov. Jim Justice (R-WV) appears on an easy path to the Senate, though there was a hotly-contested Republican primary to replace him. Gov. Phil Scott (R-VT) announced he'd run for a fifth term, and starts out a heavy favorite in his blue state.

Notes on the State of Politics: April 24, 2024

April 24, 2024

A rating change in Pennsylvania's House races, and some uncertain signals from the finalized California House top-two primary results

Rating Changes: Arizona Senate and AZ-6

April 17, 2024

We’re making a couple of rating changes today, both in Arizona. The state’s open-seat Senate race goes from Toss-up to Leans Democratic, and Rep. Juan Ciscomani (R, AZ-6) moves from Leans Republican to Toss-up.

2024 Senate