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Notes on the State of Politics: February 22, 2023

Dear Readers: Tonight’s event with Bill Kristol and David Ramadan has been postponed, although we are hoping to reschedule it for some time in the spring. — The Editors KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — In Virginia, Democrats have held the Richmond-area 4th District with state Sen. Jennifer McClellan. Her nearly 50-point win represented a notable overperformance. — The most important judicial race of this year will be in the closely-divided state of Wisconsin, where control of the state Supreme Court is on the line. — In last night’s judicial primary, Democratic-aligned candidates took 54% of the two-way vote in Wisconsin. This could bode well for liberal judge Janet Protasiewicz, who will face conservative Daniel Kelly in April, although there have been surprises in past state Supreme Court elections. Last night’s Virginia and Wisconsin results Last night, in what was probably the most widely followed election night so far this year, Democrats overperformed in several special elections across the country. With the 2022 general election out of the way, last night almost seemed like a return to form: After the Supreme Court’s Dobbs decision in summer 2022, Democrats routinely overperformed President Joe Biden’s margins in a string of congressional elections

J. Miles Coleman

Notes on the State of Politics: Sept. 28, 2022

Dear Readers: This is the latest edition of Notes on the State of Politics, which features short updates on elections and politics. — The Editors Table 1: Crystal Ball gubernatorial rating changes Governor Old Rating New Rating Gretchen Whitmer (D-MI) Leans Democratic Likely Democratic PA Open (Wolf, D) Leans Democratic Likely Democratic Michigan and Pennsylvania to Likely Democratic With just under 6 weeks to go until Election Day 2022, Democrats’ prospects of holding 2 Great Lakes region governorships are improving. We are moving the contests in Michigan and Pennsylvania from Leans Democratic to Likely Democratic — both races feature proven Democratic candidates running against controversial and underfunded Republicans. We’ll start in Pennsylvania, where the gap in candidate quality between the major-party nominees is one of the biggest of any statewide contest this cycle. With Gov. Tom Wolf (D-PA) term-limited, Democrats fielded, perhaps, their strongest possible nominee in state Attorney General Josh Shapiro. In 2016, Shapiro got enough crossover support from Donald Trump’s voters to hold the state’s open Attorney General contest for Democrats. In 2020, as Republicans flipped the state Auditor and Treasurer offices, Shapiro outperformed Joe Biden by a few points (Pennsylvania elects most of its statewide row officers in presidential years). In

J. Miles Coleman

Notes on the State of the Primaries: Sept. 21, 2022

Dear Readers: Please join us, virtually, for a couple of special Center for Politics events this week. Today (Wednesday, Sept. 21) from 4 p.m. to 5:30 p.m., former U.S. Sen. Russ Feingold (D-WI) and Peter Prindiville, a non-resident fellow at the Stanford Constitutional Law Center, will discuss their new book, The Constitution in Jeopardy: An Unprecedented Effort to Rewrite Our Fundamental Law and What We Can Do About It. The discussion will be streamed here. On Friday, Sept. 23 from noon to 1:30 p.m., the Center for Politics will honor the service of U.S. Capitol Police Officers and D.C. Metropolitan Police Officers who defended the U.S. Capitol on Jan. 6, 2021 with the presentation of the Center’s first annual “Defender of Democracy” awards. This year’s inaugural award recipients will be Private First Class Harry A. Dunn, Officer Caroline Edwards, Officer Michael Fanone, Sergeant Aquilino Gonell, Officer Eugene Goodman, Officer Daniel Hodges, Officer Howard Liebengood (posthumously), Officer Jeffrey Smith (posthumously), and Private First Class Brian Sicknick (posthumously). Following the ceremony, the officers and widows of the fallen officers will participate in a special panel discussion about the events of Jan. 6, 2021. The ceremony and discussion will be streamed here. With the 2022

J. Miles Coleman

Notes on the State of the Primaries: Sept. 14, 2022

Dear Readers: In the latest edition of our new “Politics is Everything” podcast, Crystal Ball Managing Editor Kyle Kondik talked to Henry Olsen, a senior fellow at the Ethics and Public Policy Center and a Washington Post columnist, about the mixed signals in this year’s election and some of the advantages Republicans retain despite some recent setbacks. “Politics is Everything” is available on all major podcast platforms. This is the latest edition of Notes on the State of Politics, which features short updates on elections and politics. Tuesday night was the last regular primary night of the year, and we have updates on races in both New Hampshire and Rhode Island. — The Editors Table 1: Crystal Ball House rating change Member/District Old Rating New Rating Chris Pappas (D, NH-1) Toss-up Leans Democratic New England contests close out the 2022 primary season In recapping the final primary night of 2022, we’ll start with the state that also may host the final primary of 2023 (which could — gasp — be a presidential primary): New Hampshire. Granite State Republicans appear to have made life a little easier for first-term Democratic Sen. Maggie Hassan. Don Bolduc, a conservative retired general who cast himself as a pro-Donald Trump outsider

J. Miles Coleman

Notes on the State of Politics: Sept. 7, 2022

Dear Readers: This is the latest edition of Notes on the State of Politics, which features short updates on elections and politics. — The Editors Table 1: Crystal Ball House rating changes District Old Rating New Rating Mary Peltola (D, AK-AL) Safe Republican Toss-up MI-3 Open (Meijer, R) Toss-up Leans Democratic Kim Schrier (D, WA-8) Toss-up Leans Democratic Table 2: Crystal Ball Gubernatorial rating change Governor Old Rating New Rating MA Open (Baker, R) Likely Democratic Safe Democratic What’s going on in the House? With the football season getting underway and the political season producing some strange outcomes — a Democrat won a House race in Alaska, huh? — we are reminded of the famous clip of Green Bay Packers coach Vince Lombardi: “What the hell’s going on out here?” Rep.-elect Mary Peltola’s (D, AK-AL) victory in Alaska’s ranked-choice special House election, which was finalized last week after an Aug. 16 election, has contributed to a fog of war that has descended over the House battlefield. The basics are still bad for Democrats: President Joe Biden’s (D) approval rating, perhaps the best catch-all of the political environment, is still stuck in the low 40s, albeit after having improved from the

Kyle Kondik and J. Miles Coleman

Notes on the State of Politics: August 24, 2022

  Dear Readers: This is the latest edition of Notes on the State of Politics, which features short updates on elections and politics. We are making a few rating changes today, including in a pair of upstate New York House races after Democrats scored an impressive victory in a closely-watched swing district special election, NY-19. — The Editors Table 1: Crystal Ball House rating changes Member Old Rating New Rating Pat Ryan (D, NY-18) Toss-up Leans Democratic NY-19 Open (No inc.) Leans Republican Toss-up Table 2: Crystal Ball Senate rating change Senator Old Rating New Rating OH Open (Portman, R) Likely Republican Leans Republican Rating changes in New York following specials Democrats turned in another pair of congressional special election overperformances last night, giving them an at least somewhat surprising victory in the closely-watched NY-19 special and a decent showing in the much sleepier NY-23 special, which Republicans held by a smaller margin than the GOP presidential showing in the district in 2020. In NY-19, a classic swing district that Joe Biden won by about 1.5 points in 2020, Ulster County Executive Pat Ryan (D) beat Dutchess County Executive Marc Molinaro (R) by a small margin. Some sites were reporting 51%-49%

Kyle Kondik

Notes on the State of the Primaries: August 17, 2022

Dear Readers: This is the latest edition of Notes on the State of Politics, which features short updates on elections and politics. Today we are taking a look at the results in 3 western states — Alaska and Wyoming voted last night, while Washington state recently finalized the results from its August 2 blanket primary. — The Editors Table 1: Crystal Ball Senate rating change Senator Old Rating New Rating Patty Murray (D-WA) Likely Democratic Safe Democratic Wyoming Wyoming, with its small population and deep red hue, usually sees little attention but hosted a nationally watched primary last night — even if the results went as predicted. Just 2 years ago, Rep. Liz Cheney (R, WY-AL) was one of the top Republicans in the House GOP conference, but she ramped up her criticism of now-former President Trump in the wake of the Jan. 6 insurrection. Since then, as vice chair of the select committee investigating the insurrection, Cheney has continued to make the case against the former president to a national audience. While her commitment to principle may be admirable, this was clearly not a message that the Wyoming Republican electorate wanted to hear. Though she was, for a time, allied with

J. Miles Coleman

Notes on the State of the Primaries: August 10, 2022

Dear Readers: This is the latest edition of Notes on the State of Politics, which features short updates on elections and politics. Before we begin this week, we wanted to wish our dear friend, Crystal Ball Senior Columnist Alan Abramowitz, a speedy recovery from a medical procedure he had last week. Given the amount of incisive emails Alan has been sending us about the upcoming election, we suspect you will be seeing his work again in the Crystal Ball before too long. Today we are taking a look at the results in Tuesday night’s primaries in Connecticut, Minnesota, Vermont, and Wisconsin. — The Editors Table 1: Crystal Ball House rating change Member/District Old Rating New Rating Brad Finstad (R, MN-1) Safe Republican Likely Republican Wisconsin Wisconsin is a state that features competitive races for both Senate and governor, though only the latter contest saw a notable primary. For the past few months, the Democratic primary for Senate seemed like a fluid contest, but in the weeks leading up to the election, 3 of Lt. Gov. Mandela Barnes’ opponents dropped out of the race and endorsed him — with that, Barnes took the Democratic nomination with close to 80% of the vote.

Kyle Kondik and J. Miles Coleman

Notes on the State of Politics: July 27, 2022

Dear Readers: This is the latest edition of Notes on the State of Politics, which features short updates on elections and politics. Below, we’re taking a quick look back at last week’s Maryland primary and then a look ahead at next Tuesday’s packed primary calendar, one of the biggest of the year. — The Editors Maryland Democrats nominate a fresh face The open-seat primary for governor of Maryland, which was also the sole statewide primary that took place in July, featured competition on both the Democratic and Republican sides. Gov. Larry Hogan (R) routinely ranks as one of the nation’s most popular governors but cannot seek a third term. In one of their clearest-cut pickup opportunities, Democrats nominated a political outsider — something that has seemed more common in recent Republican primaries. With over 90% of the ballots counted (the mail in votes couldn’t be opened until later last week), author and entrepreneur Wes Moore has claimed a 33% plurality. Moore’s main opposition came from Obama-era Secretary of Labor and former Democratic National Committee Chairman Tom Perez and longtime state Comptroller Peter Franchot. Perez took 47% in Montgomery County, Franchot ran well in the Eastern Shore and in western Maryland, but Moore’s

J. Miles Coleman

Notes on the State of Politics: July 13, 2022

Dear Readers: This is the latest edition of Notes on the State of Politics, which features short updates on elections and politics. We have a couple of rating changes to announce this week, both in California — those are shown in Table 1. We’ll explain those changes later in the issue, but first we wanted to take a look at President Biden’s approval rating, which has reached new lows in recent weeks and which has been declining, steadily, over the course of much of his presidency. — The Editors Table 1: Crystal Ball House rating changes Member Old Rating New Rating Josh Harder (D, CA-9) Likely Democratic Leans Democratic CA-13 Open (No. inc.) Leans Democratic Toss-up Biden’s (steadily) sinking approval rating With just under 4 months left until the midterm elections, the New York Times kicked off the week with a survey from Siena College showing President Biden in a perilous position. While only 33% of registered voters approved of his job performance, it is notable that the president’s approval rating with Democratic partisans is “only” at 70% — for context, according to Gallup’s tracking polls, throughout 2010 and 2014, 80% of Democrats, on average, gave President Obama positive marks. It is

Kyle Kondik and J. Miles Coleman

Notes on the State of the Primaries: June 29, 2022

Dear Readers: Last night saw primaries and runoffs in several states across the country, as well as a special election in Nebraska. This was the last big primary night of a busy June. Looking ahead, July will not feature much primary action, although there will be some key contests in early August. This is the latest edition of Notes on the State of Politics, which features short updates on elections and politics. We’ll be back next week, following Independence Day. — The Editors Table 1: Crystal Ball gubernatorial rating change Governor Old Rating New Rating JB Pritzker (D-IL) Likely Democratic Safe Democratic Table 2: Crystal Ball House rating change Member/District Old Rating New Rating RI-2 Open (Langevin, D) Likely Democratic Leans Democratic RI-2 to Leans Democratic Before we get to our takeaways from yesterday’s primaries, a quick pit stop in the Ocean State is in order. We wrote extensively on Monday about the Supreme Court’s Dobbs ruling ending a constitutional right to abortion. Perhaps the ruling will have a significant bearing on the midterm, or perhaps not — we need to wait for more data. In the meantime, though, we have to continue evaluating the races based on what we know

Kyle Kondik and J. Miles Coleman

Notes on the State of Politics: June 22, 2022

Dear Readers: This is the latest edition of Notes on the State of Politics, which features short updates on elections and politics. Barring an unexpected development, this is going to be the only issue of the Crystal Ball this week. We’ll be back next week with a reaction to next Tuesday’s primaries. — The Editors Table 1: Crystal Ball House rating changes Member/District Old Rating New Rating AK-AL Special (No inc.) Likely Republican Safe Republican Michelle Steel (R, CA-45) Toss-up Leans Republican Jennifer Wexton (D, VA-10) Safe Democratic Likely Democratic About last night’s primaries Tuesday night featured a smattering of races in 4 southern states: Virginia, Alabama, Arkansas, and Georgia. Matchups were set for a pair of high-profile House races in our home state. State Sen. Jen Kiggans (R) will face Rep. Elaine Luria (D, VA-2) in a Hampton Roads-based seat, while Prince William County Supervisor Yesli Vega (R) won a competitive primary for the right to challenge Rep. Abigail Spanberger (D, VA-7). The Crystal Ball rates the former a Toss-up and the latter Leans Democratic. Democrats were hoping that a far-right Republican, Jarome Bell, would beat Kiggans, and some even tried to help make that happen. But Kiggans, a

Kyle Kondik

Notes on the State of the Primaries: June 8, 2022

Dear Readers: Join us tonight at 6 p.m eastern for a free, virtual panel featuring top analysts and experts previewing the beginning of the House’s Jan. 6 Select Committee’s public hearings. The virtual event will be streaming at https://livestream.com/tavco/jan6committeehearings. UVA Center for Politics Director Larry J. Sabato will host the panel, which will be moderated by former United States Director of the Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency and current Center for Politics scholar Chris Krebs. He will be joined by top analysts and journalists: — Olivia Beavers, congressional reporter for POLITICO focusing on House Republicans and GOP leadership. She is a former Center for Politics intern; — Paul Begala, Center for Politics scholar and Democratic strategist who serves as a political contributor for CNN; — Josh Dawsey, political enterprise and investigations reporter for the Washington Post; — Tara Setmayer, Center for Politics scholar, contributor to ABC News, and former GOP Communications Director on Capitol Hill. Panelists will discuss the state of the Jan. 6 committee’s investigation and discuss what to expect in advance of the committee’s first public hearing on Thursday evening. If you can’t tune in live, the panel recording will be available at both the above link and

J. Miles Coleman

Notes on the State of Politics: May 18, 2022

Dear Readers: This is the latest edition of Notes on the State of Politics, which features short updates on elections and politics. — The Editors KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — The race for the Pennsylvania Republican Senate nomination remains uncalled, and it will remain a Toss-up in our ratings regardless of whether businessman David McCormick or television doctor Mehmet Oz eventually wins the right to face Lt. Gov. John Fetterman (D) in an open-seat race. — Republicans are concerned about their chances in the open Pennsylvania gubernatorial race after far-right state Sen. Doug Mastriano (R) won the party’s nomination. We’re moving that race from Toss-up to Leans Democratic. — The most notable development from the other primaries Tuesday was embattled Rep. Madison Cawthorn (R, NC-11) losing his bid for renomination. — Blue Dog Rep. Kurt Schrader (D, OR-5) is currently trailing in his primary against a progressive challenger. Regardless of whether he ends up winning, we’re moving that race from Likely Democratic to Leans Democratic. Table 1: Crystal Ball gubernatorial rating change Governor Old Rating New Rating PA Open (Wolf, D) Toss-up Leans Democratic Table 2: Crystal Ball House rating change Member/District Old Rating New Rating Kurt Schrader (D,

J. Miles Coleman

Notes on the State of Politics: May 11, 2022

Dear Readers: This is the latest edition of Notes on the State of Politics, which features short updates on elections and politics. — The Editors New York: No map, but 2 special elections The last few months have not been especially kind to Gov. Kathy Hochul (D-NY). Shortly after she was elevated to replace her predecessor, now-former Gov. Andrew Cuomo (D), last year, she appointed then-state Sen. Brian Benjamin to her old post as lieutenant governor. The pairing seemed like it could be formidable: Hochul is from Buffalo and seems firmly within the mainstream of her party, while Benjamin, who was set to be her running mate, is a Black progressive from New York City. As it turned out, though, Benjamin entered the lieutenant governor’s office with some ethical baggage. Last month, he resigned after a 5-count indictment alleging that he essentially traded public money for campaign contributions. Another recent setback for Hochul was that, on April 27, the Democratic gerrymander of the state’s congressional map — which she signed off on — was thrown out by the New York Court of Appeals (the state’s highest court). The now-void plan insulated the state’s more vulnerable Democratic members and imperiled several Republican-held seats, with the

J. Miles Coleman