Notes on state of pol

Dear Readers: This is the latest edition of Notes on the State of Politics, which features short updates on elections and politics. — The Editors Redistricting: Four western states pass maps Since the Crystal Ball’s redistricting update last week, a few more states have enacted or advanced maps — a testament to how quickly the process can move. In the past week, much of the action has been out west, with 4 states finalizing maps. Idaho: We’ll start in Idaho, a Republican-dominated state that employs an independent redistricting commission. Though the commission floated a draft map that paired the Mormon-heavy southeast with the more Libertarian panhandle, the commission opted to make only small changes to account for population changes. Boise’s Ada County will continue to be split between two Safe Republican seats. We’ll likely need to wait until the fast-growing state adds a third district before there’s any real redistricting drama, although that could come as soon as the next census. Montana: Another red state with an independent commission, Montana regained a second district — before it became an At-Large state, in 1992, it was split between an eastern and western district. Three decades later, the commission recreated that divide.

Dear Readers: Later this week, the UVA Center for Politics is hosting several events that we’d encourage anyone interested in politics or history to attend. All three of the following events are free and open to the public. Tomorrow (Thursday, Sept. 30), Center for Politics Director Larry J. Sabato will give a political update to UVA Clubs, where he’ll discuss the upcoming 2022 midterms and look ahead to the 2024 campaign. This virtual event will begin at 1 p.m. and registration is at this link. Later tomorrow (also Thursday, Sept. 30), the Center will host a screening of The Legacy of Black Wall Street, a film documenting the rise and fall of Black Wall Street in Tulsa, OK. The event will begin at 6 p.m. and will last until 9 p.m. at the Ting Pavilion, 700 E. Main St. in Charlottesville. Masks are required for attendees. More information can be found here. And on 6:30 p.m. on Friday, Oct. 1, the Center will hold a screening of its new documentary Five Years North, a film documenting the story of Luis, an undocumented Guatemalan boy in New York City who struggles to work, study, and evade Judy — the Cuban-American ICE officer patrolling his neighborhood. The film aims

Dear Readers: This is the latest edition of the Crystal Ball’s “Notes on the State of Politics,” which features short updates on elections and politics. — The Editors OH-11 and OH-15: Wins for Clinton and Trump? In two special elections last night, Ohio voters in two congressional districts went to the polls to cast ballots in primaries. Though there were four primaries overall, the results in the the two most watched contests were, to some degree or another, unexpected. In the Cleveland area’s OH-11, County Councilwoman Shontel Brown upset former state Sen. Nina Turner in the Democratic primary. Turner, who had superior name recognition, built a fundraising advantage and was seen as a clear, but not prohibitive, favorite for much of the campaign. Though Turner represented part of the area in the legislature from 2008 to 2014, she was most known for her work on Sen. Bernie Sanders’ (I-VT) presidential campaigns. Brown, who was initially elected to the Cuyahoga Council in 2014, positioned herself as a mainstream Democrat. As the campaign wound down, Democratic heavy hitters flocked to the district, as the race, rightly or wrongly, was cast a re-litigation of their party’s 2016 presidential primary. In the closing week, Sanders stumped for Turner

  Dear Readers: This is the latest edition of the Crystal Ball’s “Notes on the State of Politics,” which features short updates on elections and politics. — The Editors AAPOR report sheds light on “shy Trump” phenomenon A new report from the American Association for Public Opinion Research confirmed that 2020’s pre-election polls performed even worse than they did in 2016, with both national and state-level polls understating Republican support. Five years ago, final national pre-election polling generally showed Hillary Clinton leading a close national race (she did in fact win the popular vote), but many of the state-level polls, particularly in the Midwest, understated Donald Trump’s level of support. This time, many national and state-level polls were off. The AAPOR report, which came out Monday, also suggested that some of the proposed solutions to 2016’s polling problems, such as ensuring that a poll was weighted by education level, did not really fix the problems. Natalie Jackson of the Public Religion Research Institute noted some of these expected findings in the Crystal Ball earlier this month, and the formal report itself confirms Natalie’s suggestion that there would be no easy fixes for 2020’s polling problems. After the 2016 election, many

Dear Readers: This is the latest edition of the Crystal Ball’s “Notes on the State of Politics,” which features short updates on elections and politics. — The Editors New York City posts initial returns, but full results are likely weeks away Brooklyn Borough President Eric Adams grabbed a nearly 9.5-point lead over his closest rival, progressive lawyer Maya Wiley, in the New York City Democratic mayoral primary last night. With about 800,000 votes tabulated so far, Adams has almost 32% to Wiley’s 22%, with former city Sanitation Commissioner Kathryn Garcia in third, at just under 20%. Former presidential candidate Andrew Yang, who led early polls of the race but faded down the stretch, lagged far behind in fourth, with nearly 12%. Everyone else was in single digits. Based on a report by the Board of Elections of the City of New York from yesterday afternoon, there are at least 87,000 uncounted Democratic absentee ballots, and those won’t begin to be tabulated until next week. There is also the matter of the city’s new ranked-choice voting system. While one of course would rather be Adams, given his strong early lead, it’s possible that Wiley (or even Garcia) could catch him as

Dear Readers: This is the latest edition of the Crystal Ball’s “Notes on the State of Politics,” which features short updates on elections and politics. — The Editors TX-6: Democrats locked out of runoff In the Dallas area this weekend, a somewhat unexpected — but not entirely surprising — result will induce a Crystal Ball ratings change. On Saturday, Texans in the state’s 6th District went to the polls to decide who should replace the late Rep. Ron Wright (R, TX-6). Sadly, Wright died of COVID-19 in February. On paper, TX-6 had potential to be a competitive district — Trump carried it 51%-48% last year, which was considerably closer than his 12-point margin there in 2016. About 70% of the district’s votes typically come from a blue-trending portion of Fort Worth’s Tarrant County, while the rest is from two much redder counties to the south. In Texas, though, special elections are held under Louisiana-style jungle primary rules: all candidates, regardless of party, appear on the same ballot and a runoff is triggered if no one clears 50% — this turned out to be key. In a field that featured nearly two-dozen contenders, Democrats didn’t consolidate behind a single candidate, while Susan

Dear Readers: At 3:30 p.m. eastern today, University of Virginia Center for Politics Director Larry J. Sabato will interview USA Today Washington Bureau Chief Susan Page about her new book, Madam Speaker: Nancy Pelosi and the Lessons of Power. To tune in, click here. If you can’t watch live, we’ll be posting their conversation to our YouTube channel, UVACFP. This is the latest edition of the Crystal Ball’s “Note on the State of Politics,” which features short updates on elections and politics. Earlier this week, we published a special Crystal Ball issue on the new U.S. House reapportionment numbers, so we won’t publish again until next week. — The Editors Virginia Governor: McAuliffe remains ahead in Democratic race as Republicans brace for unpredictable convention The challengers to former Gov. Terry McAuliffe (D-VA) in the Old Dominion’s June 8 Democratic gubernatorial primary are running out of lifelines. McAuliffe already holds a sizable lead in polls: both the Democratic firm Public Policy Polling and the nonpartisan Wason Center at Christopher Newport University have found his support over 40%, with none of his four opponents cracking double digits. With no runoff, McAuliffe benefits not only from his name ID and money advantages, but