Notes on state of pol

Dear Readers: This is the latest edition of Notes on the State of Politics, which features short updates on elections and politics. Today we are taking a look at the results in 3 western states — Alaska and Wyoming voted last night, while Washington state recently finalized the results from its August 2 blanket primary. — The Editors Table 1: Crystal Ball Senate rating change Senator Old Rating New Rating Patty Murray (D-WA) Likely Democratic Safe Democratic Wyoming Wyoming, with its small population and deep red hue, usually sees little attention but hosted a nationally watched primary last night — even if the results went as predicted. Just 2 years ago, Rep. Liz Cheney (R, WY-AL) was one of the top Republicans in the House GOP conference, but she ramped up her criticism of now-former President Trump in the wake of the Jan. 6 insurrection. Since then, as vice chair of the select committee investigating the insurrection, Cheney has continued to make the case against the former president to a national audience. While her commitment to principle may be admirable, this was clearly not a message that the Wyoming Republican electorate wanted to hear. Though she was, for a time, allied with

Dear Readers: This is the latest edition of Notes on the State of Politics, which features short updates on elections and politics. Before we begin this week, we wanted to wish our dear friend, Crystal Ball Senior Columnist Alan Abramowitz, a speedy recovery from a medical procedure he had last week. Given the amount of incisive emails Alan has been sending us about the upcoming election, we suspect you will be seeing his work again in the Crystal Ball before too long. Today we are taking a look at the results in Tuesday night’s primaries in Connecticut, Minnesota, Vermont, and Wisconsin. — The Editors Table 1: Crystal Ball House rating change Member/District Old Rating New Rating Brad Finstad (R, MN-1) Safe Republican Likely Republican Wisconsin Wisconsin is a state that features competitive races for both Senate and governor, though only the latter contest saw a notable primary. For the past few months, the Democratic primary for Senate seemed like a fluid contest, but in the weeks leading up to the election, 3 of Lt. Gov. Mandela Barnes’ opponents dropped out of the race and endorsed him — with that, Barnes took the Democratic nomination with close to 80% of the vote.

Dear Readers: This is the latest edition of Notes on the State of Politics, which features short updates on elections and politics. Below, we’re taking a quick look back at last week’s Maryland primary and then a look ahead at next Tuesday’s packed primary calendar, one of the biggest of the year. — The Editors Maryland Democrats nominate a fresh face The open-seat primary for governor of Maryland, which was also the sole statewide primary that took place in July, featured competition on both the Democratic and Republican sides. Gov. Larry Hogan (R) routinely ranks as one of the nation’s most popular governors but cannot seek a third term. In one of their clearest-cut pickup opportunities, Democrats nominated a political outsider — something that has seemed more common in recent Republican primaries. With over 90% of the ballots counted (the mail in votes couldn’t be opened until later last week), author and entrepreneur Wes Moore has claimed a 33% plurality. Moore’s main opposition came from Obama-era Secretary of Labor and former Democratic National Committee Chairman Tom Perez and longtime state Comptroller Peter Franchot. Perez took 47% in Montgomery County, Franchot ran well in the Eastern Shore and in western Maryland, but Moore’s

Dear Readers: This is the latest edition of Notes on the State of Politics, which features short updates on elections and politics. We have a couple of rating changes to announce this week, both in California — those are shown in Table 1. We’ll explain those changes later in the issue, but first we wanted to take a look at President Biden’s approval rating, which has reached new lows in recent weeks and which has been declining, steadily, over the course of much of his presidency. — The Editors Table 1: Crystal Ball House rating changes Member Old Rating New Rating Josh Harder (D, CA-9) Likely Democratic Leans Democratic CA-13 Open (No. inc.) Leans Democratic Toss-up Biden’s (steadily) sinking approval rating With just under 4 months left until the midterm elections, the New York Times kicked off the week with a survey from Siena College showing President Biden in a perilous position. While only 33% of registered voters approved of his job performance, it is notable that the president’s approval rating with Democratic partisans is “only” at 70% — for context, according to Gallup’s tracking polls, throughout 2010 and 2014, 80% of Democrats, on average, gave President Obama positive marks. It is

Dear Readers: Join us tonight at 6 p.m eastern for a free, virtual panel featuring top analysts and experts previewing the beginning of the House’s Jan. 6 Select Committee’s public hearings. The virtual event will be streaming at https://livestream.com/tavco/jan6committeehearings. UVA Center for Politics Director Larry J. Sabato will host the panel, which will be moderated by former United States Director of the Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency and current Center for Politics scholar Chris Krebs. He will be joined by top analysts and journalists: — Olivia Beavers, congressional reporter for POLITICO focusing on House Republicans and GOP leadership. She is a former Center for Politics intern; — Paul Begala, Center for Politics scholar and Democratic strategist who serves as a political contributor for CNN; — Josh Dawsey, political enterprise and investigations reporter for the Washington Post; — Tara Setmayer, Center for Politics scholar, contributor to ABC News, and former GOP Communications Director on Capitol Hill. Panelists will discuss the state of the Jan. 6 committee’s investigation and discuss what to expect in advance of the committee’s first public hearing on Thursday evening. If you can’t tune in live, the panel recording will be available at both the above link and

Dear Readers: This is the latest edition of Notes on the State of Politics, which features short updates on elections and politics. — The Editors KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — The race for the Pennsylvania Republican Senate nomination remains uncalled, and it will remain a Toss-up in our ratings regardless of whether businessman David McCormick or television doctor Mehmet Oz eventually wins the right to face Lt. Gov. John Fetterman (D) in an open-seat race. — Republicans are concerned about their chances in the open Pennsylvania gubernatorial race after far-right state Sen. Doug Mastriano (R) won the party’s nomination. We’re moving that race from Toss-up to Leans Democratic. — The most notable development from the other primaries Tuesday was embattled Rep. Madison Cawthorn (R, NC-11) losing his bid for renomination. — Blue Dog Rep. Kurt Schrader (D, OR-5) is currently trailing in his primary against a progressive challenger. Regardless of whether he ends up winning, we’re moving that race from Likely Democratic to Leans Democratic. Table 1: Crystal Ball gubernatorial rating change Governor Old Rating New Rating PA Open (Wolf, D) Toss-up Leans Democratic Table 2: Crystal Ball House rating change Member/District Old Rating New Rating Kurt Schrader (D,

Dear Readers: This is the latest edition of Notes on the State of Politics, which features short updates on elections and politics. — The Editors The end of era in Alaska Late last Friday, some unfortunate political news broke: while he was on a flight back home, the Dean of the House, Rep. Don Young (R, AK-AL) passed away. Earlier this month, the octogenarian Young marked 49 years in the House — this made him its longest-serving Republican member ever, and the 6th-longest serving member overall in the chamber’s history. Though Young would have turned 89 this summer, he kept a brisk schedule and was an active legislator. Shortly after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, he introduced legislation aimed at seizing the assets of Russian oligarchs. Even as Young made a habit of criticizing environmentalists, by the time of his death, he was one of the more moderate Republicans in the conference: he voted for President Biden’s infrastructure package and was a strong proponent of looser marijuana laws. While the Last Frontier could see a chaotic election season this year, one certainty seems to be that whoever is ultimately elected will have a hard time replacing the colorful Young. As it has been almost 50 years