Congressional Forecasts for 2018: Structure-X Models Tags 2018 House2018 Senate September 13, 2018 We build here on our “Structure-X model,” successfully applied in 2014. We first generate a 2018 forecast from our classic
Senate 2018: At Least for Now, the Elephant Endures Tags 2018 Senate September 6, 2018 KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — In what is a somewhat unusual development, the incumbent party is not a clear
Notes on the State of Politics Tags 2018 Governor2018 House2018 SenateNotes on state of pol September 6, 2018 Governors: The Last Frontier’s three-cornered fight favors the Republicans On Tuesday, an important deadline came and went in Alaska’s gubernatorial
A Labor Day Status Report Tags 2018 Governor2018 House2018 Senate August 30, 2018 We’ve been starting Crystal Ball pieces with a few “key points” summing up the article. As we head into Labor
Forecasting the 2018 Midterm Election using National Polls and District Information Tags 2018 House August 30, 2018 Editor’s Note: In advance of the 2016 election, the Crystal Ball featured several political science forecasts of the presidential race.
Center for Politics, Ipsos Public Affairs release new midterm election forecasting tools Tags 2018 Governor2018 House2018 Senate August 28, 2018 (WASHINGTON, DC) — The University of Virginia Center for Politics and Ipsos today launched the UVA Center for Politics-Ipsos Political
House Update: 12 Ratings Changes Tags 2018 House August 23, 2018 KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — Tuesday’s episode of real-life Law and Order involving two figures close to the president,
Exploring the Incumbency Advantage Tags 2018 House August 23, 2018 KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — The incumbency advantage in U.S. House races, at least during this decade, has been
The Governors: Ratings Changes Abound Tags 2018 Governor August 16, 2018 KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — We have six gubernatorial ratings changes this week, as shown in Table 1 and
Center for Politics, Ipsos Public Affairs partner to release new midterm election forecasting tools Tags Uncategorized August 16, 2018 The University of Virginia Center for Politics and Ipsos invite members of the media to the launch of their new
New Poll: Majority of Americans Believe Race Relations Have Worsened under President Trump Tags 2020 President August 9, 2018 A new Reuters/Ipsos poll conducted in conjunction with the University of Virginia Center for Politics finds that a majority of
A Failure to Launch? Kansas’ Republican Gubernatorial Contest and the History of Incumbent Governor Primary Performance Tags 2018 Governor August 9, 2018 KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — As of Wednesday afternoon, Gov. Jeff Colyer (R-KS) trailed Kansas Secretary of State Kris
The House: Ratings Changes in the Aftermath of Another Nail-Biter Special Election Tags 2018 House August 9, 2018 KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — A likely GOP win in a suburban Columbus House seat still represents a significant
Senate Observations: Placing 2018 in the Context of Upper Chamber Elections Since 1913 Tags 2018 Senate August 2, 2018 KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — From 1914 to 2016, presidential cycles featured a higher rate of straight-ticket outcomes than
The House Tilts Toward the Democrats Tags 2018 HouseRating Change July 24, 2018 Editor’s Note: This is a special Tuesday edition of the Crystal Ball. We’ll be back to our regular Thursday schedule