Notes on the State of Virginia’s Primary
In Virginia's primaries, Cao and Vindman cruise to victory in their contests, while retiring Rep. Jennifer Wexton (D) gets her…
Notes on the State of Politics: June 12, 2024
Republicans win a special election in OH-6 by an underwhelming margin; elsewhere, Maine, Nevada, North Dakota, and South Carolina held…
Notes on the State of Politics: June 5, 2024
In last night's primaries, Rep. Andy Kim (D, NJ-3) easily won the Democratic primary for Senate in his state; we…
Districts of Change, Part Three: When Each District Was Most Democratic (and Most Republican)
Using data from Dave Redistricting App, we are tracking how every district leaned, compared to the nation as a whole,…
Districts of Change, Part Two: Looking Beyond the Straight-Party Districts
The vast majority of congressional districts have voted "straight-party" in presidential elections since 2008. There are 56 districs that have…
Districts of Change, Part One: How All 435 Congressional Districts Voted from 2008-2020
Thanks to Dave's Redistricting App, a tool which we use often at the Crystal Ball, we are able to easily…
Where Biden’s Primary Showing Was (And Wasn’t) Especially Strong
President Biden's has easily won most contests in the 2024 Democratic primary so far. But in many states, his relative…
Where Trump’s Primary Showing Was (And Wasn’t) Especially Strong
Though Donald Trump handily won most states that have voted in the 2024 Republican primary season so far, his stregth…
Making Sense of Arizona’s New Electoral Landscape
Yesterday in Arizona, the state Supreme Court gave the green light to a strict, 1860s-era law that bans abortion in…
A Lieberman 2006 Repeat in 2024?
Last week, former Connecticut Sen. Joe Lieberman, a sitting Democratic senator who won reelection in 2006 as an independent following…
The Postwar History of Senate/Presidential Ticket-Splitting, Part Two
This week, we’ll continue our look at the history of postwar split-ticket outcomes between presidential and Senate races. Last week,…
The Postwar History of Senate/Presidential Ticket-Splitting, Part One
In order to hold their Senate majority, Democrats are almost certainly going to have to win at least two and…
Notes on the State of the Senate
Last week, on what could have been a slow Friday in the political world, the nation’s attention turned to Maryland.…
The Fields Above the Graves: Louisiana 2024 Redistricting
After less than a month in office, Louisiana Gov. Jeff Landry, a conservative Republican, somewhat ironically, enacted something that his…
Boebert’s District Flip
KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — Lightning rod U.S. Rep. Lauren Boebert (R, CO-3) announced over the holidays that she