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2014 Governor

Sabato's Crystal Ball

Midterm 2014: Where things stand now

Election Day 2014 is now almost exactly seven months away, which is both near and far. On the one hand, more than half of the states — 29 of 50 — have passed their filing deadlines for major party candidates (the deadline in a 30th, Tennessee, is today). The late entries of Rep. Cory Gardner (R, CO-4) and ex-Sen. Scott Brown (R-MA) into, respectively, the Colorado and New Hampshire Senate races are probably the last major candidate announcements we’re going to see this cycle, barring a late retirement or other big surprise. So the playing field is basically set. On the other hand, the specific players in the game are not set. Just two states — Illinois and Texas — have held their primaries. After the District of Columbia voted on Tuesday, there isn’t another primary until May 6. Candidate selection, particularly for Republicans in places like Georgia, Iowa and North Carolina, could be a decisive factor in the battle for the Senate. So with the caveat that plenty can change, we know enough about the political environment, fundamentals, candidates and other factors that will impact 2014 to offer a new Crystal Ball feature this week: Narrow ranges of what

Larry J. Sabato and Kyle Kondik

Ratings changes: Hawaii, Maryland and Michigan

In addition to our new Crystal Ball Outlook for the House, Senate and gubernatorial races, we have a few tweaks to make to our ratings this week. To get our ratings changes as they happen, follow the Crystal Ball team on Twitter — @LarrySabato, @kkondik and @geoffreyvs — and check our website’s Ratings Changes page. Table 1: Crystal Ball ratings changes HAWAII (SEN): On Monday, this race got a big “aloha” from President Obama when he endorsed appointed Sen. Brian Schatz (D) in the Democratic primary. Unlike in some other states, the president remains relatively popular in his birthplace, and polls have shown Schatz and his primary opponent, Rep. Colleen Hanabusa (D, HI-1), in a neck-and-neck battle. Obama backing a candidate in the state of his birth could be the rare endorsement that matters. The Democratic match-up will also be influenced by race and faction. Hanabusa was viewed as the late Sen. Daniel Inouye’s (D) preferred successor, but after Inouye’s death in December 2012, Gov. Neil Abercrombie (D) instead put Schatz, his lieutenant governor, in the seat. This decision has even complicated Abercrombie’s own gubernatorial reelection race as it upset some Asian-American Democrats, many of whom were close friends and

Kyle Kondik and Geoffrey Skelley

Putting Their Eggs in the Wrong Midterm Basket

Barring significant changes in group voting habits, many commentators have argued that “The Coalition of the Ascendant” is positioned to give Democrats a notable edge in elections in the near future. There may be some truth to that supposition: The country is clearly getting more diverse, and nonwhite voters tend to vote strongly Democratic. A key cog in this coalition has been young voters — often called Millennials — who are more diverse than their elders. Exit poll data in 2012 suggest that young people were vital in securing President Barack Obama’s second term in the White House. He garnered 60% of the 18-to-29 vote (after winning 66% of it in 2008), by far the highest percentage Obama won among any age group. Estimating from exit poll data, all else equal, it’s possible that Obama would have narrowly lost the popular vote (and perhaps the Electoral College vote, too) had he won the same percentage among 18-to-29 year olds as he did among 30-to-44 year olds (52%). Continued strong support for Democratic presidential candidates in the future among younger voters could spell trouble for the GOP as generational replacement occurs (yes, that’s a euphemism). However, one aspect of this trend

Geoffrey Skelley

The End of Amendments?

This year marks the centennial anniversary of the first class of popularly-elected U.S. Senators, as mandated by adoption of the 17th Amendment. A hundred years later, several current or former Republican members of Congress, including Todd Akin (MO), Paul Broun (GA), Pete Hoekstra (MI) and Jeff Flake (AZ), have indicated their support for returning the selection of U.S. senators to state elites. Although the movement to repeal the 17th Amendment is likely to fizzle, the fact is plans to amend the Constitution are mostly a waste of time because, other than a widely popular and highly-unifying suggested change, it is probably almost impossible to ratify or even propose amendments in our highly-polarized nation and divided national government. Holding aside the 10 amendments of the Bill of Rights — and an 11th regulating congressional compensation that, proposed more than two centuries ago as one of 12 originally proposed amendments, was belatedly ratified in 1992 as the 27th Amendment — only 16 amendments that were not part of the constitutional bargain struck in 1787 have been proposed and ratified in the 226 years since the founders met in Philadelphia. That works out to one amendment about every 14 years. After setting aside

Thomas F. Schaller

It’s the Stupid Economy

U.Va. Center for Politics Director Larry J. Sabato is contributing a regular column to Politico Magazine. This week, he examines whether or not an improved economic picture could potentially help Democrats stave off trouble in November 2014. — The Editors Last week’s special election in Florida’s 13th congressional district, where GOP Rep. David Jolly upset Democrat Alex Sink, provided a sugar high to Republicans, but otherwise it didn’t tell us all that much we didn’t already know. There’s close to a consensus among nonpartisan election handicappers about the upcoming 2014 midterm elections: Democrats can’t win the House, and they might lose even more ground to the GOP. And Republicans are bound to pick up some Senate seats, perhaps the six they need to take control or even more; their Senate map is so good that the 10 seats that seem likeliest to change hands in the fall are all held by Democrats. This was all true before about 183,000 voters in Pinellas County, FL, had their say — 0.001% of the total number of votes cast in the 2012 election — and it remains true now. Beyond that, this is the sixth-year election in a two-term presidential administration. That usually

Larry J. Sabato

Governors 2014: Where politics really is local

The 1974 midterm elections represented a perfect storm for Democrats. Not only had President Richard Nixon resigned in disgrace just a few months before November, but Nixon’s successor — Gerald Ford — compounded Republican political problems by pardoning his old boss. The economy was also poor in 1974: Gross domestic product growth was a weak -3.5%, 1% and -3.9% in the year’s first three quarters. Put it together, and it’s no shock that Republicans got smoked: The GOP lost 48 net House seats, four Senate seats and five governorships. But amidst the Republican wreckage was a curious result: Ohio, known then and now as a reliable barometer of the nation’s political mood, went against the grain and chose a GOP governor over an incumbent Democrat. Ohio Gov. John Gilligan (D) probably would have been a presidential contender in 1976 if he had picked up an extra 11,500 votes against James A. Rhodes (R), a former two-term governor who, after defeating Gilligan, would go on to serve another two terms. Rhodes’ 16 years in office made him one of the longest-serving governors in U.S. history (he unsuccessfully tried for a fifth, non-consecutive term in 1986). What explains the upset? Factors that

Kyle Kondik

Will a Governor Win the White House in 2016?

U.Va. Center for Politics Director Larry J. Sabato is contributing a column every other week to Politico Magazine. This week, he examines the field of governors who are potential presidential candidates and how governors have fared in past runs for the White House. — The Editors If you live under a governor, you mainly care about his or her ability to govern. If you don’t, and you’re in the political community, you primarily want to know whether a governor is presidential timber. Our general preference for governors has emerged over time. In the republic’s first eight decades, the presidency was gained by candidates best known for being generals, vice presidents and secretaries of state. That last category, in particular, stands out as a surprisingly significant presidential feeder: Six of the first 15 presidents had previously served as secretary of state. The last was James Buchanan, whose disastrous tenure led up to the Civil War. No former secretary of state has been elected president since, which gives Hillary Clinton another historical barrier to break if she captures the White House. It wasn’t until 1876 that an incumbent governor became president — Rutherford B. Hayes of Ohio. Actually, a governor had to

Larry J. Sabato

The Six Most Overrated Races of 2014

As previously announced, U.Va. Center for Politics Director Larry J. Sabato will be contributing a column every other week to Politico Magazine. With Crystal Ball Managing Editor Kyle Kondik, this week’s column highlights six races getting a lot of media limelight right now that probably shouldn’t by November, particularly the Kentucky Senate and Texas gubernatorial contests. — The Editors With the midterm election three-quarters of a year away, the political press is understandably focusing on the races with the biggest personalities and most dramatic storylines. But just because a race makes for great copy in February doesn’t mean it’s going to be all that compelling in November. Take, for instance, this observation from ABC News: “No doubt about it: The Kentucky Senate race will be the most watched 2014 contest of them all, and the stakes could not be higher.” Almost everyone appears to agree, to judge by the coverage so far. There’s been a sizable amount of ink spilled on the Kentucky contest because of its seemingly titanic implications: Could Mitch McConnell, in a year when he might otherwise become majority leader, actually be toppled in the Republican primary by an upstart Tea Party type, Matt Bevin? Or lose

Larry J. Sabato and Kyle Kondik

A “special” favorite emerges

The matchup is now set in the closely-watched special election for a Tampa-area congressional district: David Jolly, a former lobbyist and aide to the late Rep. Bill Young (R, FL-13), comfortably won the GOP primary on Tuesday over two others. He will face Alex Sink (D), the state’s former chief financial officer and 2010 Democratic nominee for governor. Now that the primary is over, we’re changing the rating in the FL-13 special election from Toss-up to Leans Democratic. Unless national factors become so unfavorable for Democrats that they lift Jolly, we think this race is Sink’s to lose. The special election is March 11. Sink is by far the better-known candidate, owing to her previous time in office and narrow gubernatorial loss, and she has raised much more money than Jolly — according to the most recent campaign finance reports, Sink had more than $1 million cash on hand compared to Jolly’s $140,000, which presumably was used at least in part to win the primary. Democrats also preferred to face Jolly in this race because of his past work as a lobbyist. Part of our ratings change here is based on the incentives for this special: Democrats really need to

Kyle Kondik

Republicans Really Could Win It All This Year

We are pleased to announce that U.Va. Center for Politics Director Larry J. Sabato will be contributing a column every other week to Politico Magazine, which we will be linking to in the Crystal Ball. His inaugural column analyzes what factors will matter in the 2014 midterm and where the race for the House and Senate stands right now. — The Editors Another midterm election beckons, and over the next 10 months we’ll see headlines about a thousand supposedly critical developments — the “game changers” and the “tipping points.” But we all know there aren’t a thousand powerful drivers of the vote. I’d argue that three factors are paramount: the president, the economy and the election playing field. And, at least preliminarily, those three factors seem to be pointing toward Republican gains in both houses in the 2014 midterms. Why? To read the rest of the column, please click here.

Larry J. Sabato

14 FOR ‘14: SOME BOLD PREDICTIONS FOR THE NEW YEAR

As we wrap up our publishing schedule for 2013, we looked into the Crystal Ball to offer some predictions for next year. While the picture is still a little hazy for the 2014 midterms, we’ve got some other prognostications related to the political year to come and some hints about what you should expect. 1. At least one additional U.S. senator will announce his or her retirement in 2014. We’re giving ourselves some wide latitude here, because it’s possible the retirement will come after the 2014 midterms. But we suspect at some point next year another senator will decide to quit; the question is, will it be an incumbent who determines he or she cannot win in 2014 — similar to ex-Sen. Ben Nelson (D-NE), who retired in late 2011 after realizing his perilous political position — or will it be someone who retires for another reason — like ex-Sen. Olympia Snowe (R-ME), who left the game in early 2012 because of frustration despite having an easy road to another term. While it’s not technically a retirement, another important development shook the Senate Wednesday evening: Sen. Max Baucus (D-MT) is reportedly going to be nominated as ambassador to China. Baucus

Larry J. Sabato and Kyle Kondik

Center for Politics to host 15th annual American Democracy Conference

On Friday, Dec. 6, the University of Virginia Center for Politics will host the 15th annual American Democracy Conference. The conference, which will be held at Alumni Hall on the Grounds of the University of Virginia, will feature panels of leading journalists and political experts focused on the 2013 Virginia election outcome, the upcoming 2014 federal midterm elections and the future of the American electorate. The event, which will begin at 9 a.m., is free and open to the public with advance registration, and the press is invited to attend. For more information or to register, please visit http://www.centerforpolitics.org/adc.html. View a livestream of the conference below: The panels are: Panel I: Post-Gubernatorial Discussion 9:30 a.m. – 10:45 a.m.: Moderator: Jeff Schapiro, Richmond Times-Dispatch political reporter and columnist Panelists: Kellyanne Conway, Republican strategist and pollster Thomas Guterbock, U.Va. Center for Survey Research director James Hohmann, Politico national political reporter Ellen Qualls, senior adviser to Terry McAuliffe’s (D) gubernatorial campaign Geoffrey Skelley, Sabato’s Crystal Ball associate editor Panel II: 2014 Midterms 11:00 a.m. – 12:15 p.m. Moderator: Larry J. Sabato, U.Va. Center for Politics director Panelists: Fred Barnes, The Weekly Standard executive editor Christina Bellantoni, PBS NewsHour political editor Carl Cannon, RealClearPolitics

UVA Center for Politics

THE 2014 SENATE FIELD DOESN’T HAVE TO BE SET YET

The last month has been, on the surface, great for the Republican Party’s electoral fortunes in 2014. President Obama’s signature achievement, the Affordable Care Act, has been a mess, and it remains persistently unpopular in polling. Obama’s approval rating has been on a steady decline for months, and the recent events have driven it increasingly downward. During the government shutdown, the Democratic lead in the House generic ballot — a simple poll measuring whether voters would support the Democratic or Republican candidate in their local House race — spiked to the high single digits in polling averages. Now Republicans hold a small lead in this key metric. Conditions such as these on Election Day 2014 would suggest at least a small Republican addition to their House majority and quite possibly a Senate takeover. This is the macro view of the 2014 election, which matters a lot; in the event of a wave, smaller-bore factors — like the candidates running and the campaigns themselves — can be overwhelmed. But the candidates and campaigns remain important: Just look at the Todd Akins and Richard Mourdocks of the world. On the candidate front, the Republicans still have a lot of work to do,

Kyle Kondik

THE THREATENING THIRTIES

For the first time in his presidency, Barack Obama finds his aggregate approval rating hovering right at 40%. In some polls, he has already fallen below it: According to Gallup, the president’s approval dropped to 39% three times in November. Currently, RealClearPolitics’ aggregation of approval polls finds the president’s approval right at 40.1% while HuffPost Pollster shows 41.5%. Both show a consistent downward trend over the last few months. While Gallup’s three-day tracking had the president’s approval at 41% on Wednesday, it has been lower. In August 2011, Obama’s approval rating in Gallup dropped to 38%, remaining around 40% until late October. This previous encounter with the “dirty thirties” buoyed Republican hopes that Obama could be beaten in the 2012 presidential election. But as events proved (for the umpteenth time), a year in politics is a long time. Looking back at Gallup’s approval polls since World War II, Obama’s predecessors have a varied history in their tangles with sub-40% approval ratings, with some recovering, some stagnating and others falling further into the disapproval abyss. And as the 2014 midterm elections approach, it is worth noting that only two presidents in the Gallup era have had approval ratings below 40% at

Geoffrey Skelley

Kennedy & Me

John F. Kennedy speaks at Granby High School in Norfolk, VA, on Nov. 4, 1960. Credit: Associated Press. Choosing the topic of this article was easy for me, because it’s a personal story. No, it’s not your usual “Kennedy and me” tale. I never even shook hands with John F. Kennedy. But his presidential saga, tragic assassination and evolutionary image coincided with my coming of age, influenced the career path I chose and defined the political world I analyze for a living. Kennedy is bound up with the memories of my youth. When I think of Kennedy, I think of my devout Roman Catholic parents. My father was exactly JFK’s age and a fellow World War II veteran, while my mother was only a few years older than Jackie, with Caroline and John-John the image of my younger family members. I visualize my Catholic school, the priests and the nuns, my lay teachers and classmates, and a time distant and yet near. As a person piles up the years, writing about the past has an irresistible allure as powerful sentiment and a yearning for what once was become a part of many evenings. Born in 1952 and raised in the

Larry J. Sabato