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Center for Politics’ new app provides dramatic, living history of Kennedy assassination

The JFK Half Century App, produced by the University of Virginia Center for Politics, is now available for download on Android and Apple devices. The app features the complete Dallas police recordings from Nov. 22, 1963, which the Center acquired from the National Archives and is available to the public in one easily accessible place for the first time. What follows is the text of Center for Politics Director Larry J. Sabato’s introduction to the app, which you can listen to below. — The Editors Welcome to the JFK app. I am Larry Sabato, author of The Kennedy Half Century. My book traces the effect John F. Kennedy had over 10 Presidential administrations. This app allows you to listen to the audio recordings from the day of the assassination made by the Dallas Police Department and you can follow along with the written transcripts. As I demonstrate in the book, the Dictabelt is not the time tunnel to ultimate truth about the source of the Dealey Plaza shots as it was once heralded to be, but the recording is invaluable nonetheless. What we call the Dictabelt is actually a collection of belts that recorded all police communications on two channels

Larry J. Sabato

Not Their Cup of Tea: The Republican Establishment versus the Tea Party

With the 2013 government shutdown and debt ceiling crisis now behind us, one conclusion seems inescapable — this was a disaster for the Republican Party. While both major parties received negative reviews from the American public for their performance in the crisis, it was the GOP that took by far the bigger hit to its image and standing in national polls. In the midst of the crisis, the Gallup Poll found that the percentage of Americans rating the Republican Party unfavorably was the highest ever recorded for either party since they began asking the party favorability question in 1992. The shutdown and debt limit impasse were almost exclusively the work of the Tea Party and its allies inside and outside of Congress. External groups like Heritage Action and FreedomWorks along with right-wing media commentators like Rush Limbaugh played key roles as cheerleaders for these confrontations. And members of Congress affiliated with the Tea Party, most prominently first-term Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX), were the strongest supporters of the shutdown and debt ceiling conflicts and the most vocal opponents of the deal to end the crisis. In the aftermath of the crisis, there are signs of a growing divide within the GOP

Alan I. Abramowitz

NOTES ON THE STATE OF POLITICS

2012 vs. 2013 Virginia vote shares quite close In early October, the Crystal Ball discussed the election-to-election relationship of the percentage of the total statewide vote each Virginia locality casts. While the correlation between 2009 and 2012 vote shares was almost perfect (R ­= .996), there was noticeably large voter drop-off in a few cities and counties in the Old Dominion’s off-off year gubernatorial election. But what about the 2013 gubernatorial race versus the 2012 presidential race? This time around, based on figures available Tuesday, the correlation between the 2012 and 2013 results is R = .999, even closer to 1, which would indicate a perfect correlation. That statistic reveals that the relative influence of most Virginia localities’ vote totals — that is, the share of the statewide vote each provided — remained more static from 2012 to 2013 than from 2009 to 2012. Chart 1: Correlation analysis of locality vote share, 2012 and 2013 Note: Fairfax County (13.73% of the vote in 2012, 13.65% in 2013) has been visually excluded from the chart in order to better view the data. But its data were included in the actual calculations. If we dig into the results locality-by-locality, we can see

UVA Center for Politics

The surprisingly dramatic Terry & Ken Show

A year ago, almost everyone who followed Virginia politics thought that Attorney General Ken Cuccinelli (R) had the inside track to winning the governorship. After all, it was in the 1880s when Virginia last gave a party just four consecutive years in the Governor’s Mansion. And Cuccinelli held one of the two positions that have served as a stepping stone to the mansion traditionally. He was running against a controversial, professional fundraiser who was best known as a “Clinton intimate,” and who was last seen getting blown out in the Democratic gubernatorial primary in 2009. Terry McAuliffe (D) had never held public office anywhere and was not even closely associated with Virginia. Additionally, Virginia had a jinx, going back to 1977, of voting against the president’s party in its gubernatorial election, which is held the year after every presidential election. So it’s actually noteworthy that McAuliffe won by any margin. Ultimately, Cuccinelli was just too socially conservative for a moderate swing state that is trending away from its traditional roots. That said, the results contain bad news for both parties, if that’s possible. Democrats are celebrating victories in at least two of the three statewide positions and have had a

Larry J. Sabato, Kyle Kondik, and Geoffrey Skelley

Five days to go in Virginia

Late last Thursday afternoon — after the publication of last week’s Crystal Ball — we revised our ratings of the three statewide races in Virginia. Terry McAuliffe (D) is now a solid favorite to win the governorship over Ken Cuccinelli (R), and we now rate that race as Likely Democratic. Meanwhile, Ralph Northam (D) is an even bigger favorite (Safe Democratic) to win the lieutenant governor’s race, and in what should be the closest of the three contests, we’re giving a slight edge to Mark Herring (D) over Mark Obenshain (R) in the attorney general’s race (Leans Democratic). The contest is tight enough that there’s some chance we could flip the prediction in the AG’s race before Tuesday, but as of now it appears that McAuliffe’s coattails could be just enough to carry Herring over the finish line. If you missed our full update on Virginia, you can read more about our rationale for these ratings changes here. As the hours tick down to Tuesday, Nov. 5, we also wanted to give a final snapshot of the race for the Virginia House of Delegates. Democrats seem poised to add seats, but how many is a hotly debated question. — The

Geoffrey Skelley

RATINGS CHANGE: A DEMOCRATIC TIDE IN VIRGINIA

Some history is being made in Virginia. The statehouse battle was supposed to be close. But as we look at Virginia’s gubernatorial contest in the stretch, just about everything is moving in a Democratic direction. The final debate Thursday night changed little, in our view — especially because it wasn’t even broadcast statewide. You might recall that the Crystal Ball was the first ratings agency to tilt the race to ex-Democratic National Committee Chairman Terry McAuliffe (D), and we did so at the end of August. Today we move the race from Leans Democratic to Likely Democratic. The list of McAuliffe advantages is as long as the list of problems for state Attorney General Ken Cuccinelli (R). On the fundraising front, McAuliffe has cemented his advantage: As of Sept. 30, McAuliffe had outraised Cuccinelli $26 million to $17 million. The structure of the contest favors McAuliffe, too. Libertarian candidate Robert Sarvis, though unknown, is benefitting from a general unhappiness with the quality of both major-party candidates, as well as the overwhelmingly negative tone of the campaign. The latest RealClearPolitics aggregate has Sarvis’ polling average right at 10%. Most polling shows Sarvis is, net, costing Cuccinelli about 2%-3%, because the Libertarian disproportionately takes votes from

Larry J. Sabato and Geoffrey Skelley

Excerpt: The Kennedy Half Century

Earlier this week, University of Virginia Center for Politics Director Larry J. Sabato unveiled new information about the assassination of President John F. Kennedy as part of the release of his new book, The Kennedy Half Century. His findings, concerning a recording of the day’s events that some believe is proof of a conspiracy to assassinate the president, are detailed in this exclusive excerpt below. If you missed the announcement, you can watch it here. You can also check out two videos from the press conference, one showing JFK’s vulnerability to an assassination attempt and another highlighting police transmissions from that fateful day. For more information on the book and the Center’s Kennedy Legacy Project, visit www.TheKennedyHalfCentury.org. — The Editors Hundreds of books and studies have been written about the Kennedy assassination. Alert readers have noticed that their authors often use the words “alleged,” “claimed,” and “supposedly” — just as I have done in this book. The debate over the Kennedy assassination is one of the longest-running sagas in American history, involving hundreds of subplots. Facts and quasifacts have dribbled out over five decades. Quite a few of these “facts” are unverifiable or only partially verifiable — which does not necessarily

Larry J. Sabato

WATCH LIVE TUESDAY: SABATO TO UNVEIL NEW FINDING ON JFK ASSASSINATION

University of Virginia Center for Politics Director Larry J. Sabato will reveal a major new finding regarding the assassination of President John F. Kennedy at 10 a.m. on Tuesday, Oct. 15, and Crystal Ball readers will be able to watch it LIVE online here. For iPhone and iPad users, the press conference will be available at this link. The finding calls into question one of the conclusions of a major government report on the JFK assassination. This is not a new theory; rather, Sabato will describe scientific findings about a key piece of evidence that undergirds a government study. Additionally, Sabato will further discuss the JFK assassination, as well as reveal new information about President Kennedy’s enduring impact on his nine successors in the White House. He will also discuss a major new public opinion survey on the American people’s opinions on JFK and the Kennedy legacy. The live webcast will kick off the Center for Politics’ Kennedy Legacy Project, which includes: Sabato’s new book; a website; a forthcoming international PBS documentary produced by the Emmy-winning Center for Politics and Community Idea Stations team; a free online course on JFK, beginning Oct. 21 and available through Coursera and iTunes U;

UVA Center for Politics

Measuring Virginia Vote Share

In 2009, now-Gov. Bob McDonnell (R) won the Virginia gubernatorial election in a 17-percentage point rout. Three years later, President Barack Obama (D) won Virginia by almost four percentage points en route to reelection. The obvious story centered around differences in turnout: In 2009, just 40.4% of registered voters turned out to vote, and that year’s exit poll found that 78% of voters were white. Just 16% were African American, and Latino and Asian-American voters made up just 5% of the vote. As for party ID, the electorate was 37% Republican and 33% Democratic. In 2012, 71.8% of registered voters showed up at the polls, and the exit poll showed that 70% of voters were white, 20% were African American, 5% were Latino and 3% were Asian American. The electorate was 39% Democratic versus just 32% Republican. Clearly, the make-ups of the 2009 and 2012 electorates were very different. Yet above the demographics, most Virginia localities* actually contributed nearly the same share of the vote in both the 2009 and 2012 elections. For example, take Virginia Beach, the state’s biggest city. In 2009, its voters made up 5.06% of the statewide total; in 2012, they made up 5.10%. That’s almost

Geoffrey Skelley

How 2014’s Gubernatorial Races Affect the Next House Map

Control of the U.S. House of Representatives may not be at stake in 2014, if our recent analysis is correct, but control of the House in 2022 could be. What’s that you say? It’s simple electoral math. Many of the governors being elected or reelected in 2014 may still be in office after the next census is released in 2021. And they’ll have a fair amount of influence, often via their veto power or party leadership, on the House redistricting that takes place prior to the 2022 elections. As we discovered anew in 2010 and 2011, the decennial redistricting can greatly influence control of the House for the better part of a decade (maybe the whole decade). So it really matters for the House who wins the statehouses. Keep in mind that, of the last five elected governors in all 50 states, close to half — 114 — have served at least two full terms, and of those, 32 have served even longer (numbers that will eventually include some current incumbents). First-term governors elected in 2014 have a good chance to still be in office in 2021; some elected in 2010 could possibly still be around due to a lack

Larry J. Sabato, Kyle Kondik, and Geoffrey Skelley

OMEN OR NOT?

We can all guess the final result in New Jersey this November, and at this point most observers are less certain about Virginia’s, although we currently rate Terry McAuliffe (D) as a small favorite over Ken Cuccinelli (R) (if you missed our special Crystal Ball on Virginia from last Friday, you can read it here). But the truly sure thing about the two gubernatorial contests set for this November is the avalanche of flat predictions made about the national 2014 midterms that will flow from these two elections. On its face, such an exercise appears foolish. Gov. Chris Christie’s (R) very likely reelection will tell us more about Christie’s potential presidential candidacy than the drift of 2014. Perhaps if the GOP nominated more relative moderates like Christie, the party could become competitive again in the Northeast and on the West Coast, but that’s obvious even without considering Christie. And New Jersey is strongly Democratic territory when Christie is taken out of the equation; the Christie era isn’t going to change that — just look at the state’s October special election for U.S. Senate, where Newark Mayor Cory Booker (D) is an overwhelming favorite. Virginia, on the other hand, is newly

Larry J. Sabato, Kyle Kondik, and Geoffrey Skelley

NOTES ON THE STATE OF POLITICS

Sarvis just the latest Virginia long shot This November, there will be only one statewide candidate out of seven in Virginia who doesn’t have “Republican” or “Democrat” next to his name. That individual is Robert Sarvis, who is running as a Libertarian for governor. (The other contests, for lieutenant governor and attorney general, feature only major-party candidates.) However, history suggests that his chances of winning are slim: Since the beginning of the 20th century, every Virginia gubernatorial winner has been a member of one of the two major parties. In fact, since 1925 only one non-major party nominee has come close to winning in the Old Dominion, and that was in 1973, when Democrat-turned-Independent Henry Howell lost by less than 1.5 percentage points to Democrat-turned-Republican Mills Godwin. But that election featured special circumstances: There was no Democrat on the ticket, just Howell, a liberal who had narrowly lost in the party’s fractious 1969 gubernatorial primary, only to then win a special election for the lieutenant governorship as an Independent in 1971. While Howell was backed by many Democrats, he eschewed the Democratic banner in 1973, possibly to help avoid connections to George McGovern’s crushing presidential loss only a year before.

Geoffrey Skelley

VIRGINIA GOVERNOR: A FAVORITE EMERGES

As the calendar turns to September, the nation’s marquee race in 2013 is coming into focus: Terry McAuliffe (D) now has an edge over Ken Cuccinelli (R) in the Virginia gubernatorial race, and we’re changing our rating in the contest from toss-up to LEANS DEMOCRATIC. The decision is based on several factors, all of which seem to suggest that the former Democratic National Committee chairman is leading the state attorney general. McAuliffe has managed to make the prospect of a Governor Cuccinelli seem scary, while Cuccinelli has “only” succeeded in making McAuliffe look like a run-of-the-mill, self-interested wealthy political hack. In this wholly negative race, that sad distinction matters. What’s kept Cuccinelli from painting McAuliffe in even less favorable colors? The Bob McDonnell scandal (to which Cuccinelli is connected by the GOP party label and gifts from the same supplicant), his substantially lesser fundraising, E.W. Jackson’s nomination for lieutenant governor, and the defection of a sizable number of moderate Republicans led by the lieutenant governor he left as road kill, Bill Bolling. If McAuliffe wins, he will be the first Virginia governor elected from the sitting president’s party since Mills Godwin (R) was elected in 1973, when Richard Nixon was

Larry J. Sabato, Kyle Kondik, and Geoffrey Skelley

NOTES ON THE STATE OF POLITICS

Democrats catching breaks in North Carolina While we’re keeping the toss-up rating of the North Carolina Senate race, it’s reasonable to question the Republicans’ chances there against first-term Sen. Kay Hagan (D-NC). The top announced candidate for the GOP is Thom Tillis (R), speaker of the state House of Representatives. National Republicans do not seem all that thrilled with his candidacy, and grassroots conservative leaders aren’t really on board either. For instance, RedState.com editor Erick Erickson has endorsed Greg Brannon (R), a conservative physician. Our North Carolina sources don’t seem to think that Brannon would be a particularly viable general election candidate, but the Erickson endorsement is giving him some oxygen at the moment — and, in a Republican primary, who knows what could happen? With Tillis in the race, and state Senate President Pro Tempore Phil Berger (R) looming as another potential candidate, Republicans have to be alarmed that their eventual candidate might be a leader of the controversial state legislature, which has taken the state in a conservative direction and inspired a series of liberal protests, called “Moral Mondays.” Earlier this week, Gov. Pat McCrory (R) signed a strict voter ID law, which also limits early voting. Democrats

Kyle Kondik

Ratings changes — and non-changes

The Crystal Ball has a number of rating changes in Senate, House and gubernatorial races to announce, but perhaps our most notable rating is one we haven’t changed. A couple of recent Democratic polls show Kentucky Secretary of State Alison Lundergan Grimes (D) narrowly edging out Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) in their likely matchup in November 2014. Additionally, McConnell has drawn a potentially credible primary challenger, businessman Matt Bevin. Grimes and Bevin both reportedly impressed at Fancy Farm, the annual Bluegrass State political confab held last weekend. With all that said, we’re keeping this race as “likely Republican.” We favor McConnell to win both his primary on May 20, 2014, and his sixth term in the fall general election. Why? Let’s start with the primary challenge. McConnell is already running ads against Bevin, leading some to ask this question: If McConnell is already on the air, he must be really worried, right? Not necessarily. McConnell is, if anything, an aggressive campaigner, and he has a massive war chest: His most recent fundraising report showed him with $9.6 million cash on hand. Additionally, in a world of SuperPACs, McConnell effectively will have an almost unlimited amount of money behind

Larry J. Sabato and Kyle Kondik