A “special” favorite emerges
The matchup is now set in the closely-watched special election for a Tampa-area congressional district: David Jolly, a former lobbyist and aide to the late Rep. Bill Young (R, FL-13), comfortably won the GOP primary on Tuesday over two others. He will face Alex Sink (D), the state’s former chief financial officer and 2010 Democratic nominee for governor. Now that the primary is over, we’re changing the rating in the FL-13 special election from Toss-up to Leans Democratic. Unless national factors become so unfavorable for Democrats that they lift Jolly, we think this race is Sink’s to lose. The special election is March 11. Sink is by far the better-known candidate, owing to her previous time in office and narrow gubernatorial loss, and she has raised much more money than Jolly — according to the most recent campaign finance reports, Sink had more than $1 million cash on hand compared to Jolly’s $140,000, which presumably was used at least in part to win the primary. Democrats also preferred to face Jolly in this race because of his past work as a lobbyist. Part of our ratings change here is based on the incentives for this special: Democrats really need to