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2014 Senate

Sabato's Crystal Ball

Bet on a Republican Senate Majority

Join the Crystal Ball team Monday night at the University of Virginia for a free presentation on the 2014 midterms. Visit the U.Va. Center for Politics website for more information and to register to attend. A version of this article originally appeared in Politico Magazine Wednesday evening. While many races remain close, it’s just getting harder and harder to envision a plausible path for the Democrats to retain control of the Senate. Ultimately, with just a few days to go before the election, the safe bet would be on Republicans eventually taking control of the upper chamber. We say eventually because there’s a decent chance we won’t know who wins the Senate on Election Night. Louisiana is guaranteed to go to a runoff, and Georgia seems likelier than not to do the same. The Georgia runoff would be Jan. 6, 2015, three days after the 114th Congress is scheduled to open. Vote-counting in some states, like Alaska, will take days, and other races are close enough to trigger a recount. Generally speaking, candidates who have leads of three points or more in polling averages are in solid shape to win, but in this election five states — Republican-held Georgia and

Larry J. Sabato, Kyle Kondik, and Geoffrey Skelley

Senate Forecast: Cloudy with a Good Chance of a Republican Majority

With less than two weeks to go until Election Day, the picture in several key races remains hazy. But when the dust settles, the most likely result is a Republican majority, as the Crystal Ball’s outlook of Republicans adding five to eight seats has long indicated. The GOP needs at least a net gain of six seats to win back Congress’ upper chamber. But the math is complicated by Sen. Pat Roberts’ (R) struggles in Kansas against independent Greg Orman, and even if Roberts wins, the GOP may not get to 51 seats until after Dec. 6 (Louisiana’s runoff) or even Jan. 6, 2015 (Georgia’s runoff), making it difficult to actually call the Senate for Republicans even this close to Nov. 4. A rundown of the arithmetic at this point: The GOP looks certain to win Democratic-controlled seats in Montana and West Virginia, both of which we rate as Safe Republican. While ex-Gov. Mike Rounds (R) hasn’t had an easy go of it in South Dakota — thus our Leans Republican rating there — he is still in a decent position to beat Rick Weiland (D) and independent ex-Republican Sen. Larry Pressler in a three-way race. A win in the

Kyle Kondik and Geoffrey Skelley

2014: A Tale of Two Elections

As we approach the home stretch, 2014 has turned into a tale of two elections. On the one hand, this is a classic sixth-year itch election where the incumbent president’s party is going to suffer losses in both houses of Congress. We’re just arguing about exactly how many. Overall, it is indisputable that Republicans will have more critical victories to celebrate than Democrats when all the ballots are counted, and they have a strong and increasing chance to control the next Senate. On the other hand, there are unusual and even a few bizarre features on the landscape. Some Democratic incumbent senators have been hanging tough in heavily Republican territory; months ago, many observers thought they’d be quickly swept out to sea in a red tide. The GOP is having a difficult time making inroads in competitive “purple” states and districts, and very little progress at all has been seen in Democratic blue areas. Contests where Republicans should have been dominant (Alaska, Georgia, Kansas, and South Dakota) have teeter-tottered back and forth, necessitating more competitive rating changes and, in some cases, even becoming Toss-ups — or worse. The “hot” trend, though it may fizzle in the end, is the emergence

Larry J. Sabato and Kyle Kondik

What to Expect from Senate Polls in the Final Days

A few weeks ago, FiveThirtyEight’s Nate Silver released a dataset of over 6,000 polls, all conducted within 21 days of the election. This trove of data dates back to 1998, and covers all manner of races: Senate, House, gubernatorial, and presidential. This allows us to build some expectations for what we might expect in the closing days of this election. With more time, we could probably be a bit more precise in our analysis, but the shortened time frame still gives us an opportunity to pluck, at the very least, some rules of thumb out of the data. For my basic analysis, I ordered Senate polls in each race by date. I simply made a series of three-poll averages (if there were not yet three polls, I took two-poll or one-poll averages as appropriate). I then sorted those averages by date and margin: If a poll concluded 10 days before an election and the average showed a candidate down two percentage points, it was categorized appropriately. These data are summarized on the following table, which can best be thought of as the answer to the following question: At any given number of days out, if a candidate has a lead

Sean Trende

The Kennedy Half Century Now Available in Paperback

Available now: The Kennedy Half Century in paperback, featuring new interviews, scientific studies, and empirical data. Among the new material contained in the paperback edition: A well-placed CIA employee reveals what really happened inside agency headquarters on Nov. 22, 1963. New analysis that further demonstrates the unreliability of the police Dictabelt audio evidence from Nov. 22, 1963, which the House Select Committee on Assassinations used as proof that two shooters were present in Dealey Plaza. Interesting new anecdotes and information about Nov. 22, 1963, from a diverse group of individuals. To purchase, visit one of the following sellers: Amazon Barnes & Noble IndieBound Free online JFK course updated with new lessons In conjunction with the new paperback edition of The Kennedy Half Century, the book’s popular massive open online course (MOOC) is returning with five additional lessons based on the new material. The MOOC will be available on demand from both Coursera and iTunes U. The JFK Half Century App, produced by the University of Virginia Center for Politics, can also be downloaded for Android and Apple devices. The app features the complete Dallas police recordings from Nov. 22, 1963, which the Center acquired from the National Archives and is

UVA Center for Politics

Senate 2014: Roberts Slips in Kansas — and What’s Up in South Dakota?

Come January, Americans may witness something that, up to now, only 6% of the country’s population has ever seen: a senator from Kansas who is not a member of the Republican Party. That’s just one reason why the Sunflower State’s Senate race is the most interesting in the country with a month to go. Kansas last elected a Democratic senator in 1932, George McGill, who was defeated for reelection in 1938 (President Roosevelt’s “sixth-year itch” midterm, when Democrats lost 71 seats in the House and six in the Senate). So only Americans who are 75 and over — a little more than 1/20th of the nation’s population — have been alive to see a non-Republican senator in one of the nation’s consistently bedrock Republican states. Kansas won’t be electing a Democrat to the Senate this year, because there is no Democrat on the ballot. Rather, independent businessman Greg Orman is challenging — and leading — unpopular incumbent Sen. Pat Roberts (R). Roberts won a weak victory over his controversial primary opponent, physician Milton Wolf, in early August. Instead of pushing aggressively ahead in his general election fight, it’s now clear that Roberts expected to coast to victory against Orman and

Kyle Kondik

Skewed

U.Va. Center for Politics Director Larry J. Sabato is contributing a regular column to Politico Magazine. This week, he examines polling averages, finding that while they are a very useful source of information, they occasionally misfire. — The Editors “Do you ever get the feeling that the only reason we have elections is to find out if the polls were right?” — Comedy writer Robert Orben, who once penned speeches for President Ford America has a love-hate relationship with polls. If you’ve clicked on this column, you likely cull through the latest survey numbers every chance you get. Activists thrill to the polling that shows their party’s candidates ahead, and they tout these favorable numbers as though they were handed down to Moses on the Mount. But if a survey has the opponent leading, many partisans not only feel a punch to the gut, they dig into its “internals” (racial demographics, party ID of respondents, etc.) to find fault. “Too many Republicans are in the sample!” “No way will Democratic minorities be so large a proportion of voters on election day!” There are always defects that supposedly twist the real state of the race, as perceived by activists. Mostly, these

Larry J. Sabato

“Bombs Away” Tackles LBJ, Goldwater and 1964 Election

Marking the 50th anniversary of the groundbreaking 1964 presidential campaign, the University of Virginia Center for Politics and Community Idea Stations have released the first trailer for their latest documentary, Bombs Away: LBJ, Goldwater and the 1964 Campaign that Changed It All. Scheduled for nationwide and international release later this fall, the one-hour documentary looks back at a presidential election that not only redefined both political parties but also ushered in a new age of highly negative television advertising. The documentary will be released nationwide beginning Nov. 1, 2014, and will air on PBS stations across the country. It will also be offered to other affiliated networks around the world. Directed by Paul Tait Roberts, Bombs Away examines the 1964 presidential contest between President Lyndon Johnson and Sen. Barry Goldwater. Polarized by very different personalities and ideologies, Johnson and Goldwater attacked each other with gusto — and in the process opened the door to a modern era of campaigning that features highly negative TV advertising campaigns. Bombs Away is the latest documentary produced by the U.Va. Center for Politics and Community Idea Stations, which regularly partner to produce documentary films for public television on American politics and history. The last

UVA Center for Politics

Republican Chances of Senate Takeover Are Improving

The race for the Senate is perceptively moving in the Republicans’ direction, but not so dramatically that we’re ready to call the race definitively for them. While we’ve long said the 2014 map and midterm dynamics make a GOP takeover of the Senate a probable outcome, there are just too many close races left and more than a month to go, when big gaffes, unexpected legal actions, and national events can potentially flip a Senate seat or two. But right now, Democrats are behind the eight-ball (as well as the Crystal Ball). So many undecided contests are winnable for the GOP that the party would have to have a string of bad luck — combined with a truly exceptional Democratic get-out-the-vote program — to snatch defeat from the wide-open jaws of victory. Or Republicans would have to truly shoot themselves in the foot in at least one race, which has become a clear possibility over the last few weeks in Kansas. The Republicans are seeing some encouraging public polling in a couple of states President Obama won in 2012, suggesting their increasing potential for gains beyond the comfortable red-tinted territory where they are already positioned to make considerable inroads in

Larry J. Sabato and Kyle Kondik

Notes on the State of Politics

Gubernatorial changes: Déjà vu for Coakley? We’ve got four gubernatorial ratings changes to make this week. The big one is in Massachusetts, where state Attorney General Martha Coakley (D) can no longer be called a favorite over Charlie Baker (R), also his party’s 2010 nominee. The most recent polls have generally shown a dead heat, with RealClearPolitics’ polling average showing an overall tie. Polling data, Coakley’s struggles in her infamous 2010 special Senate election defeat to Scott Brown (R), and Massachusetts’ willingness to elect Republican governors despite its deeply blue hue compel us to move this race from Leans Democratic to Toss-up. We assume national and state Democrats will assemble a Coakley rescue team (much as Republicans have done for Sen. Pat Roberts in Kansas). There is a key similarity here despite the differing offices: In this polarized era, the pool of Democratic voters in Massachusetts, like the pool of Republican voters in Kansas, is so large that there is time to pull Coakley and Roberts across the finish line. Whether it will happen in either case is anybody’s guess a month out. Also moving to Toss-up, from Leans Republican, is the gubernatorial election in Alaska. Gov. Sean Parnell (R)

Kyle Kondik and Geoffrey Skelley

Senate Ratings Changes: North Carolina, New Hampshire, and Minnesota

Another week is down the drain in the race for the Senate, and while our overall outlook is unchanged — a five to eight seat gain for the GOP — some of our ratings are in need of adjustments. One of these comes as a surprise, as Sen. Kay Hagan (D-NC) is proving to be quite resilient. Several Democrats privately expressed to us earlier this year their pessimism about Hagan’s chances. They didn’t think she had the wherewithal and entrenched image of someone like Sen. Mary Landrieu (D-LA), who is a much more respected campaigner. But now those same Democrats, to their surprise, believe Hagan can now win. And we’ve seen a lot of polling, both public and private, indicating that she is ahead, though she’s closer to 45% than 50%, which is still tenuous territory for a Democratic incumbent in a Republican year. The problem for Republicans in the Tar Heel State is that Thom Tillis, their candidate and the speaker of the state House of Representatives, has particularly poor numbers for a challenger: His unfavorables are usually higher than his favorables, and not just by a few points. It’s not hard to imagine that a more generic Republican

Kyle Kondik

Overtime: Five Reasons Senate Control Might Not Be Decided on Election Day

Think the Senate will be decided on Election Day, Nov. 4? There are all sorts of reasons why you shouldn’t, unless in the next seven weeks one side or the other — probably the Republicans — starts opening up a clear lead in enough races to give them a clear majority. If neither side does, control of the Senate could remain up in the air — for a while. At the very least, political watchers are going to be in for a longer night than usual because one of the key races that is likely to determine control, Sen. Mark Begich’s (D) reelection bid in Alaska, is taking place 4,000 miles and four time zones away from Washington, D.C. (and five in the Aleutian Islands). Load up on Red Bull and, if you can, hold the vodka. Beyond that, though, the uncertainty could continue for much longer. The potential for overtime exists in two key states, and perhaps others, too, depending on how close the races are on Nov. 4. Beyond that, a close or even tied Senate will test the partisan loyalties of some members, including those who were elected with no party label at all. With that, here

Kyle Kondik

Oops! They Weren’t Supposed to Win

U.Va. Center for Politics Director Larry J. Sabato is contributing a regular column to Politico Magazine. This week he took a look at races that featured upsets and surprising outcomes in Senate and gubernatorial contests since 2002. In the piece, he asked for readers to let us know if we missed any races worth mentioning, and they didn’t disappoint. Here are the contests we heard the most about: 2008 Alaska Senate: The race we received the most emails and tweets about was the 2008 Senate contest in Alaska, and for good reason: Mark Begich (D) took down 40-year incumbent Sen. Ted Stevens (R) in a red state during a presidential election. Stevens was weighed down by scandal as he was indicted and initially convicted for failing to properly report gifts (the conviction was later thrown out). Begich, whose father, Rep. Nick Begich (D), disappeared in a plane while campaigning for reelection in 1972, was ahead in the polls — polling averages had him up four points over the incumbent. But in the end, the younger Begich only won by a little over a point, in part because of then-Gov. Sarah Palin’s (R) place on the Republican presidential ticket. In fact,

UVA Center for Politics

What Is a Wave in the Senate?

For several months, we’ve held steady on our range of expected gains for Republicans in the Senate: a net of four to eight seats. With Labor Day in the rearview mirror and with less than 55 days to go until the midterms, we’re giving Republicans a slight bump: Our new range is a Republican net of five to eight Senate seats. This means that the best-case scenario we can now envision for Democrats is a 50-50 tie in the Senate, with Vice President Joe Biden’s tiebreaking vote narrowly keeping Sen. Harry Reid (D-NV) as majority leader. The likeliest outcome remains a Republican gain of six or seven seats, which we noted before Labor Day and stand by now. That would be good for a narrow 51-49 or 52-48 Republican Senate majority. What’s changed? Not a whole lot: It’s just that the weight of an unpopular president in the White House and a GOP-leaning Senate map is subtly moving things a tick or two in the Republican direction. We do have one major rating change this week: Arkansas is going from Toss-up to Leans Republican. We had Sen. Mark Pryor (D-AR) as an underdog earlier this cycle, and we’re putting him

Larry J. Sabato, Kyle Kondik, and Geoffrey Skelley

Primary Particulars

After Tuesday’s contests in Delaware, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, and Rhode Island, primary season is essentially over. Only Louisiana remains, but it is in a class by itself with a unique “jungle primary” that takes place on what is general Election Day for every other state. Nothing is ever simple when compiling election stats, and we want to thank the Pelican State for that. We thought it would be useful to compare how incumbents performed in the 2014 primary cycle with the last two midterm cycles, 2006 and 2010. The Crystal Ball spends a lot of time talking about incumbency, and for a good reason: Empirical data have shown repeatedly that incumbency is immensely helpful to a candidate’s election prospects, whether in primaries or general elections. This year’s primary season was no exception. Incumbents in the House As we’ve discussed previously, this cycle has proven far from unkind for incumbents. Of the 387 incumbents seeking renomination outside of Louisiana, 383 (99.0%) won it, with Reps. Kerry Bentivolio (R, MI-11), Eric Cantor (R, VA-7), Ralph Hall (R, TX-4), and John Tierney (D, MA-6) being the only losers. This outcome mirrored 2010, which saw 395 of the 399 (99.0%) House incumbents successfully win

Geoffrey Skelley