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2016 Senate

Sabato's Crystal Ball

University of Virginia Center for Politics to host 17th annual American Democracy Conference in Washington

On Thursday, Nov. 19, the University of Virginia Center for Politics will host the 17th annual American Democracy Conference in Washington, DC. The conference will feature leading journalists and political experts discussing the Democratic and Republican presidential primaries as well as the overall political outlook for 2016. The conference will be held at the Ronald Reagan Building and International Trade Center’s Atrium Ballroom, 1300 Pennsylvania Ave NW. It will begin at 10 a.m. and is free and open to the public with advance registration, and the press is invited to attend. For more information or to register, please visit http://www.centerforpolitics.org/adc.html. Tweet about the conference by using the hashtag #2015ADC. The conference will also be livestreamed online at the following link: https://livestream.com/tavco/17thADC The conference will feature: 10:15 a.m. – 11:30 a.m. Panel I: The Democratic Presidential Primary Moderator: Margie Omero, pollster with Purple Strategies Panelists: Jamelle Bouie, chief political correspondent for Slate Maria Cardona, principal at Dewey Square Group Mark Mellman, president and CEO of The Mellman Group Dan Pfeiffer, former Senior Advisor to President Barack Obama for Strategy and Communications Hilary Rosen, managing director of SKDKnickerbocker 11:30 a.m. – 12:15 p.m. Keynote Speaker: Former Senate Majority Leader Trent Lott (R-MS) 12:15

UVA Center for Politics

Vying for Virginia: The 2015 General Assembly Elections

On Nov. 3, the Old Dominion holds elections for all 40 of its state Senate seats and all 100 House of Delegates seats. Control of the House of Delegates is a foregone conclusion (it will remain in the GOP’s hands), but the Virginia Senate contest is on a knife’s edge. With less than two weeks to go until Election Day, the Crystal Ball is here to provide an overview of our home state’s election and what to watch for as the returns come in. In the Senate, Republicans currently hold a 21-19 advantage. However, the lieutenant governor is Ralph Northam (D), who is in a position to break ties in Democrats’ favor. Thus, a net gain of one seat for Democrats would enable them to take back the upper chamber, though they would still need 21 votes sans Northam to pass budgetary legislation (the presiding officer can’t vote on such measures). In the House of Delegates, Republicans have a dominant 67-33 majority. Needless to say, there is absolutely no way the GOP can lose its edge in the lower chamber this cycle. The state midterm cycle suffers from particularly low turnout — a sad state of affairs given the importance

Geoffrey Skelley

New Hampshire: Toss-Up Central

Think New Hampshire isn’t getting enough political attention? You’re probably alone, but a long-awaited move by Gov. Maggie Hassan (D) will likely result, remarkably, in an even greater focus on the Granite State during the 2016 cycle. Hassan announced Monday that she will challenge incumbent Sen. Kelly Ayotte (R) in the state’s U.S. Senate contest next November, a decision with major consequences not only for that contest but also the state’s concurrent gubernatorial election. The result, at least for the time being, is two toss-up races. The Ayotte-Hassan Senate contest immediately becomes a Toss-up, having previously been a Leans Republican race while Hassan mulled her options. Correspondingly, the now-open gubernatorial election is also a Toss-up, moving from Leans Democratic. Tables 1 and 2: Crystal Ball 2016 Senate and gubernatorial ratings changes Hassan was far and away Democrats’ strongest possible candidate to take on Ayotte; thus, the governor’s Senate candidacy increases her party’s chances of recovering a majority in Congress’ upper chamber. After all, conservative groups had spent the last few months running ads trying to discourage Hassan from running for Senate, a sign that the GOP also viewed her as the Democratic best bet. Early polling, for what it’s worth

Geoffrey Skelley

Arizona Senate: The Goldwater Comparison McCain Doesn’t Want

Sen. John McCain (R-AZ) will be seeking his sixth term in 2016, but first he has to win renomination. As things stand, state Sen. Kelli Ward (R) and McCain’s other primary opponents don’t greatly endanger the incumbent’s standing. But a couple members of the state’s U.S. House delegation, Reps. Matt Salmon (R, AZ-5) and David Schweikert (R, AZ-6), have been considering runs against McCain. While Salmon announced on Tuesday that he wouldn’t take on McCain, Schweikert continues to examine his options. Should Schweikert enter the Senate race, he would pose a credible threat to McCain: Unlike Ward, Schweikert would probably attract serious support from outside conservative groups, who loath McCain. While we don’t yet think the incumbent is in real primary peril, it’s not impossible to imagine McCain running into trouble if Schweickert challenges him. Demonstrating continued interest in the race, Schweikert took a shot at McCain this past weekend, saying that the poorly-rated incumbent can’t beat Rep. Ann Kirkpatrick (D, AZ-1) in November 2016. Kirkpatrick, the likely Democratic nominee, is one of just five House Democrats who holds a seat won by Mitt Romney in 2012. McCain’s favorability has been weak for years, and he had to fend off

Geoffrey Skelley

Ratings Changes: A Senate Sleeper in Kentucky?

The prospect of Sen. Rand Paul (R-KY) winning the Republican presidential nomination seems as remote as ever. But that doesn’t mean Senate Republicans can just assume the seat will stay safely in their column next year. The Senate situation in the Bluegrass State highlights six Crystal Ball race ratings changes, which are shown in Table 1. Table 1: Crystal Ball race rating changes Notes: Some of these changes were previously announced on Twitter earlier this month. Kentucky Senate: While he appears to be fading in the presidential race, Rand Paul did win a victory in his home state recently. With the help of Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell, Paul persuaded Kentucky Republicans to hold a presidential caucus next March instead of a presidential primary in May. That will allow Paul to compete for presidential delegates in his home state while also preserving his ability to run for renomination in the Senate primary. Kentucky law prohibits candidates from running for different offices in the same primary election. Paul has agreed to pay the state party $250,000 by this Friday to help cover the costs. The party told us earlier this week that it will not publicly reveal whether the payment has

Kyle Kondik

Early Thoughts on 2016’s Presidential and Down-Ballot Races

U.Va. Center for Politics Director Larry J. Sabato is a regular contributor to Politico Magazine, and this week he and the Crystal Ball team offer snippets and links to a two-part series that takes an early look at the 2016 presidential and down-ballot pictures. The first article, which appeared in Politico Magazine on Sept. 7, 2015, reviews eight important facets of the presidential campaign. The second column, which appeared in the magazine on Sept. 13, 2015, offers eight things to keep in mind about elections for the U.S. Senate, U.S. House, and governor. — The Editors The Truth About the 2016 Race The rise of Donald Trump might represent some massive sea change in American politics — but it’s far more likely he will fade long before the primary season does. Thanks to Trump, August was a blockbuster month for the political press, but most of what is happening now won’t decide who is sworn in on Jan. 20, 2017. Given the early beginning to this cycle’s presidential derby — Jeb Bush unofficially jumpstarted the race back in December 2014 — it feels like the primary season should be launching in a couple of weeks. But it’s not. As Nathan

Larry J. Sabato, Kyle Kondik, and Geoffrey Skelley

A Small Senate Battlefield

Since we last took a comprehensive look at the 2016 Senate races, a slew of new candidates have jumped in, some promising contenders have dropped out, and intraparty competition has intensified. Sounds dramatic. Yet what most strikes us is the overall stability, thus far at least, of the Senate picture. First, Democrats have a plausible but narrow path to a minimal majority, requiring a net gain of four seats if a Democratic vice president is also elected, or five seats if the GOP wins the White House. But as we note below, Democrats need to win the lion’s share of the small number of truly competitive seats on this cycle’s map. Second, because the route to a Democratic majority is fraught with peril and obstacles aplenty, the Republicans are still more likely to keep the majority than the Democrats are to win it, though it would be a considerable surprise if the GOP’s 54-46 seat margin wasn’t reduced by at least a seat or two. Not losing any net seats probably requires the Republican nominee to not only win the presidency, but capture more than 300 electoral votes in doing so — something no Republican has done since George H.W.

Larry J. Sabato, Kyle Kondik, and Geoffrey Skelley

Senate 2016: Sorting out the Democrats’ best targets

Former Sen. Russ Feingold’s (D) long-expected decision to challenge Sen. Ron Johnson (R) in a 2016 rematch crystallized for us that Johnson is the most vulnerable incumbent senator in the country. But it also helped put the other top Senate races into context. First of all, let’s re-set the scene. Map 1 shows Senate Class 3, which will be contested in November 2016. The 34 seats up next year are lopsidedly controlled by Republicans: They are defending 24 seats, while the Democrats are only defending 10. Map 1: Senate Class 3, which is up for election in 2016 This is what happens in Senate elections: The successes of one cycle that occur under favorable conditions — 2010 for Republicans — lead to challenges in a future cycle where the national environment is not as ideal. The GOP is overextended on next year’s Senate map, period. However, Republicans are not as overextended as Democrats were on last year’s Senate map. Democrats held seven seats going into that election won by Mitt Romney — Alaska, Arkansas, Louisiana, Montana, North Carolina, South Dakota, and West Virginia — and all but one (North Carolina) were blowouts for the GOP in 2012. Even including the

Kyle Kondik

Marco Rubio’s Intriguing Presidential Bid

Early on Monday, news broke that Sen. Marco Rubio (R-FL) will run for president, ending any uncertainty about his future and whether he would remain in the Senate. He was scheduled to officially announce his candidacy late Monday afternoon. As he enters the race, Rubio sits in third behind ex-Gov. Jeb Bush (R-FL) and Gov. Scott Walker (R-WI) in our current 2016 Republican presidential rankings. This positioning reflects both the potential, and the drawbacks, of Rubio’s candidacy. Regarding his potential, Rubio seems to check most boxes. He’s an excellent speaker and a more polished politician in many respects than some of his opponents, including Bush and Walker. His ethnic background as a Cuban American sets him apart from the others, except Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX), who shares the same heritage as Rubio, and Gov. Bobby Jindal (R-LA), an Indian American. Rubio also impresses many Republican insiders, who view him as having the wherewithal to be a capable national candidate, with stronger electability than Sen. Rand Paul (R-KY), Cruz, and some other possible outsider candidates such as Dr. Ben Carson and ex-Sen. Rick Santorum (R-PA). To borrow a racing metaphor, Rubio’s position in the establishment derby could allow him to draft

Geoffrey Skelley

Notes on the State of Politics

The retirement of Senate Minority Leader Harry Reid (D-NV) last week gives Republicans something they have been lacking in the early stages of this Senate cycle: a 50-50 shot at picking up a seat currently held by a Democrat. True, Reid’s poor approval numbers meant he was going to be a target of Republicans anyway. But he’s also a proven commodity who would have had the power of incumbency. In our view, the open-seat race is now a Toss-up, as opposed to the prior rating of Leans Democratic. Democrats are only defending 10 of the 34 Senate seats that are up for election in 2016, which is a consequence of their poor performance on this map during the 2010 cycle, the last time this group of Senate seats (Class III) was contested. But of those 10 seats, three are open: In addition to Reid, Sens. Barbara Boxer (D-CA) and Barbara Mikulski (D-MD) also have already announced their retirements. Reid’s retirement is almost certainly the most costly — we still consider both the California and Maryland seats to be Safe Democratic, a rating that so far has been vindicated by the seeming lack of interest from big-name Republicans in running for

Kyle Kondik

Maneuvers in 2016 Senate Races Necessitate One Ratings Change…in the House

Early this week, developments in Florida and Indiana caused a stir. First, news broke early Monday morning that Rep. Patrick Murphy (D, FL-18) will run for the Sunshine State’s Senate seat currently held by Sen. Marco Rubio (R), who is exploring a presidential run. Then, on Tuesday, Sen. Dan Coats (R-IN) announced that he would not seek reelection in 2016, creating an open seat in Indiana. While neither headline caused the Crystal Ball to make a Senate ratings change, Murphy’s decision did necessitate a reappraisal of his House district. The Sunshine State’s simmering Democrats In Florida, Rubio has repeatedly said that he will not run for both the presidency and the Senate in 2016, and Murphy’s entry into the Senate race may reflect the conventional wisdom that Rubio appears more likely to launch a presidential run than to seek another term in the Senate. Backed by many establishment Democrats, Murphy is the first Democrat to declare, but he may not be the last. Moreover, it appears Democrats are not entirely unified behind him. In a radio interview on Sunday just before Murphy’s announcement, Democratic National Committee Chair Debbie Wasserman Schultz highlighted a number of Democratic mayors from around the state

Geoffrey Skelley

Now Available: The Surge, the Center for Politics’ New Book Analyzing the 2014 and 2016 Elections

The Surge, the University of Virginia Center for Politics’ postmortem of the 2014 midterms and preview of the 2016 presidential election, is now available. Edited by Center for Politics Director Larry J. Sabato and Sabato’s Crystal Ball editors Kyle Kondik and Geoffrey Skelley and published by Rowman and Littlefield, The Surge: 2014’s Big GOP Win and What It Means for the Next Presidential Election brings together some of the nation’s top political journalists and analysts to explain why and how the Republicans took the Senate and where American politics stands as the country’s polarized political parties gear up for 2016. The Surge can be purchased via Rowman and Littlefield, Amazon, Barnes & Noble, and other major booksellers. The contributors and their chapters are: Larry J. Sabato provides an overview of the 2014 election, including a look at historical election patterns and demographic voting trends. Long-time political expert and Crystal Ball Senior Columnist Rhodes Cook explores the 2014 primary season and how those nominating contests influenced the November results. Politico’s James Hohmann and the Crystal Ball’s Kyle Kondik and Geoffrey Skelley provide in-depth analysis of, respectively, the Senate, House, and gubernatorial races. Former Federal Election Commission chairman Michael Toner and former

UVA Center for Politics

Ohio Senate: The Last Ride of the Appalachian Democrat

(COLUMBUS, Ohio) — The combination of former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton (president) and former Gov. Ted Strickland (Senate) as a Democratic “ticket” atop the ballot here next year would be a throwback. That’s not intended as a catty reminder that both Clinton (69 on Election Day 2016) and Strickland (75 on that same date) are older candidates. Rather, it’s just an observation that the places where they have run strongly in Ohio in the past are different from the places that powered President Obama to two Buckeye State victories in 2008 and 2012. Historically, the winning Democratic formula in Ohio was to rack up big margins in Northeast Ohio — particularly in Cuyahoga County (Cleveland) — win Lucas County (Toledo) and Montgomery County (Dayton), and perform relatively well in some of Ohio’s Appalachian counties that run along the Ohio River (effectively Strickland’s old congressional district, which ran from just south of Youngstown in the Northeast all the way to the state’s southern tip). The maps below, showing Jimmy Carter’s victory in Ohio in 1976 and Bill Clinton’s win in 1996, roughly demonstrate the pattern. Note: These maps are from the excellent Dave Leip’s Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections, where

Kyle Kondik

Coattails and Correlation

Few political observers will be surprised that the correlation between presidential and Senate results has been increasing over the last few presidential election cycles. That is, during a presidential election year, the Senate race in state A has increasingly tended to have a similar outcome to the presidential result in state A. Other analysts have noted the growing relationship between the two variables, such as National Journal, which produced a great infographic examining the 2000 to 2012 elections. But what is surprising is that, despite increasingly high levels of polarization in American politics, 2012 was by no means a record-setting year for correlation between presidential and Senate results: The correlation in 2012 was .78, well short of the record set in 1916, .92. In fact, eight presidential cycles had higher correlations than 2012, suggesting that there have been plenty of cycles where voters were even more likely to cast straight-ticket ballots than in recent times, at least for president and senator. Chart 1 lays out the correlations between the two-party vote for president and Senate in each presidential cycle from 1916 to 2012. Chart 1: Correlation between presidential and Senate results, 1916-2012 Note: Excludes states where a major-party Senate candidate

Geoffrey Skelley

Can Democrats Retake the Senate in 2016?

U.Va. Center for Politics Director Larry J. Sabato is contributing a regular column to Politico Magazine. This week, he examines the 2016 Senate playing field and Democrats’ chances of retaking the chamber. A version of this article originally appeared in Politico Magazine on March 2, 2015. — The Editors It’s still too early to predict the Senate’s makeup in 2016, but it’s not too early to start thinking about who could land on the list of endangered senators. And in the 2016 cycle, it’s more likely to be a Republican than a Democrat. In 2016, the Republicans seem to have their backs to the wall, defending 24 seats to the Democrats’ 10. Just two Democratic seats — Harry Reid’s in Nevada and Michael Bennet’s in Colorado — are not solid, both in states where the GOP surged in 2014. In the Silver State, Republican Brian Sandoval would start as the frontrunner if he decided to challenge Reid, though the recently-reelected governor appears unlikely to run. It’s also not impossible that Reid, who says he will seek re-election, ultimately decides to retire. There are several potential Bennet opponents, such as Republican U.S. Rep. Mike Coffman, but no one that immediately suggests the

Larry J. Sabato