THE TRUMP SURGE
And then, everything changed. Well, not everything, but enough to generate the first major revision in our electoral map, and all of it is in Donald Trump’s direction for now. Let us make our view perfectly clear: We still believe that Hillary Clinton is more likely than Trump to win the election, and she still has the advantage in the Electoral College. Yet it is equally apparent that she has stumbled badly in recent weeks, fueling Trump’s polling advance. And the Republican nominee has more pathways to 270 electoral votes than he did before. Clinton disappeared for long stretches before Labor Day to do fundraising and failed to define any overriding positive message about what a Hillary Clinton presidency would mean. Then came the “basket of deplorables” gaffe (which some believe might actually help Clinton with her party base) and the lie by omission about her pneumonia, a serious condition that deserves scrutiny. Instead of transparency, there was a bold gambit by Clinton to avoid any health disclosure that might give credence to longtime, far-right theories that she was at death’s door. This ill-advised error reinforced the public’s view that Clinton is secretive and untruthful. At the same time, two