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2018 Governor

Sabato's Crystal Ball

Empire State of Mind: New York’s Simmering Democratic Primary for Governor

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE: — As he seeks a third term, Gov. Andrew Cuomo (D-NY) is favored to win renomination in what could be a high-profile primary against actress and activist Cynthia Nixon (D). — However, Cuomo often has upset the left and there may be a path for a challenger. That path likely begins outside New York City, where Cuomo’s numbers are weaker than they are in the Five Boroughs. — Because New York has no runoff provision for primaries, the entrance of a third major candidate in the Democratic field — perhaps former Syracuse Mayor Stephanie Miner — could help the incumbent by fragmenting the anti-Cuomo vote. The Empire State Democratic primary for governor Gov. Andrew Cuomo (D-NY) has led the Empire State since his election to the governorship in 2010. Seeking his third term in office in 2018, Cuomo hopes to emulate his father, former Gov. Mario Cuomo (D), who also served three terms as New York’s governor from 1983 to 1994.[1] Yet also like his father, Andrew Cuomo clearly harbors presidential ambitions. The incumbent governor likely hopes to make a play for his party’s 2020 presidential nomination, something his father never did. Mario Cuomo famously

Geoffrey Skelley

Notes on the State of Politics

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — The partisan structure of the races for governorships and Senate seats are now exact mirror opposites. — Sen. Angus King (I-ME) and Gov. Tom Wolf (D-PA) get ratings upgrades. — Rep. Elizabeth Esty’s (D, CT-5) retirement gives Republicans an upset opportunity and is another example of how #MeToo is contributing to a high number of open House seats this cycle. Table 1: Crystal Ball Senate and gubernatorial ratings changes Mirror images of partisan vulnerability in Senate and gubernatorial races With Mississippi now hosting two Senate races this year, 2018’s Senate and gubernatorial races have achieved something of a mirror-image symmetry. On the Senate front, Democrats are defending 26 seats (including two independents who caucus with Democrats from Maine and Vermont) while the Republicans, even with the addition of a special election in Mississippi, are still only defending nine. In the gubernatorial races, it is the Republicans defending 26 seats while the Democrats are defending just nine. There is one other governorship on the ballot not included here — Alaska — but an independent, Bill Walker, is seeking reelection. He defeated a Republican incumbent in 2014 and has a Democratic running mate, but Walker himself

Kyle Kondik and Geoffrey Skelley

Illinois Primary: Rauner Is Reeling

Gov. Bruce Rauner (R-IL) endured a difficult night on Tuesday. Although he won his party’s primary to earn a reelection shot in November, the contest in some ways confirmed his overall weakness as the most endangered incumbent Republican governor facing the voters in 2018. As such, the Crystal Ball is moving the Illinois gubernatorial contest from Toss-up to Leans Democratic, the first time in the 2018 cycle that we have rated an incumbent U.S. senator, U.S. House member, or governor as an underdog for reelection. Rauner’s vulnerabilities are two-fold: his party base is not solidly behind him — the GOP primary made this abundantly clear — and he faces an energized Democratic Party in what is typically a blue state. Table 1: Crystal Ball ratings change Map 1: Crystal Ball gubernatorial ratings In the Republican primary, Rauner narrowly fended off a challenge from state Rep. Jeanne Ives, who few initially expected to endanger the incumbent’s renomination chances. However, by primary day stories and rumors abounded that Rauner might actually lose — and he very nearly did. Rauner escaped with a three-point win, 51.4% to 48.6%, over Ives, who gained support during her campaign from GOP megadonor Richard Uihlein, among others.

Geoffrey Skelley

Mixed Signals: Analyzing Elections since Trump Won the Presidency

KEY POINTS IN THIS ARTICLE: — In 2013 elections, Democratic candidates ran behind Barack Obama’s 2012 two-party vote percentage by an average of 5.9 percentage points. A great Republican cycle in 2014 followed. In elections since December 2016, Republican candidates have run an average of 2.6 points behind Donald Trump’s 2016 two-party vote share, a notably smaller figure that could augur poorly for Democrats in 2018. This includes both special and regular elections. — However, since Trump’s election, in contests with no incumbent, the average Republican candidate has run an average of 5.1 points behind Trump in the two-party vote. Considering the sizable number of Republican retirements in the U.S. House and in state legislative elections, GOP-held open seats will be a pivotal part of 2018 arithmetic. — Because of Trump’s gains in the Rust Belt, the Midwest will be one major focus of the 2018 election cycle. The Midwest is easily the best region for Democrats in elections during the Trump era. On average, Democrats have performed 10.2 points better than Clinton in the two-party vote in that census region, while only doing slightly better in the Northeast (2.8 points) and South (1.5 points), and worse out West (-1.8

Geoffrey Skelley

Revisiting Virginia’s Vote

KEY POINTS IN THIS ARTICLE: — Democrats won the two-party popular vote in the House of Delegates 54.8%-45.2% but carried just 49 of 100 seats in the chamber. — Adjusting for uncontested seats, Democrats won an estimated vote of 51.7% to the GOP’s 48.3% in the two-party vote. According to this percentage and the Democratic seat total, the efficiency gap for Virginia’s district lines suggests a Republican-leaning map, but not an explicit GOP gerrymander. However, taken with results from earlier cycles, the efficiency gap suggests that the Virginia map may be a borderline case of a partisan gerrymander. — Gov. Ralph Northam (D) likely provided coattails to down-ballot Democratic candidates in the House of Delegates rather than the other way around, countering claims of “reverse coattails.” — There was no statistically significant difference between how men and women performed as candidates in the 2017 House of Delegates elections. The Virginia House of Delegates and the 2017 election After two months of post-election recounts, litigation, and even a tie-breaking draw, the Virginia House of Delegates opened its 2018 session on Jan. 10 with 51 Republicans and 49 Democrats in the chamber. Since the November 2017 election, the Crystal Ball has fielded

Geoffrey Skelley

THE GOVERNORS: JUDGE 2018 BY THE BIG STATES

  Dear Readers: We realize that our pieces can get quite lengthy sometimes. While we know that all readers read every single word (wink wink), we’re going to start offering brief synopses at the top of our longer articles to allow readers who are in a hurry to get the gist. We will include any ratings changes, and our current ratings map for the group of contests in question, at the top of the article as well. — The Editors   KEY POINTS IN THIS ARTICLE: — Democrats should end the year with more governorships than they hold now. One reasonable way to measure Democrats’ success is whether they get into the 20s — they have 16 governorships now, so that would mean a gain of four or more. — The Republicans are on the defensive in too many states to realistically expect them to net seats, and they have to deal with the handicap of holding the White House in a midterm. They have 33 now, and staying in the 30s would represent a great cycle for them. — The one ratings change we’re making this week is moving the open seat in Maine from Toss-up to Leans Democratic.

Kyle Kondik

Watch the 2017 American Democracy Conference

On Nov. 16, the University of Virginia Center for Politics hosts the 19th annual American Democracy Conference in Charlottesville, VA. The conference features leading journalists and political experts discussing the upcoming 2018 midterm election cycle, the first year of Donald Trump’s presidency, and early thoughts on the 2020 presidential election. The conference is taking place in Alumni Hall on the Grounds of the University of Virginia — 211 Emmet Street South in Charlottesville. Doors open at 8:30 a.m. and the event begins at 9:00 a.m. The conference is free and open to the public with advance registration, and the press is invited to attend. The conference is being livestreamed online at the following link: https://livestream.com/tavco/2017ADC. For more information on the conference, its panels, and its panelists, please visit http://www.centerforpolitics.org/adc.html.

UVA Center for Politics

Democratic Domination in the Old Dominion

Editor’s note: This piece is based on unofficial 2017 election returns. Tuesday represented the best non-presidential election night Democrats have had since 2006. They swept the statewide ticket in Virginia for the second election in a row, and they picked up the New Jersey governorship. They also won a crucial, majority-making state Senate election in Washington state, so they won complete control of state government in two states (New Jersey and Washington). Ever since the June primary, we thought Gov.-elect Ralph Northam (D) had a small edge in the Virginia gubernatorial race, which is why we rated it as Leans Democratic for the whole general election period even as Northam hit some seeming rough patches. But the size of his victory — nine points — was notable, and his ticket-mates, Attorney General Mark Herring (D) and Lt. Gov.-elect Justin Fairfax (D), won by smaller but still decisive margins. But the big shock to us, and to anyone who is honest about their pre-election expectations, was the Democrats winning what could be a 50-50 tie in the Virginia House of Delegates. Democrats went into the election at a 66-34 deficit in the House, and while they were expected to win seats,

Kyle Kondik and Geoffrey Skelley

Signs and Portents

In an off-year long on election commentary but short on actual elections, the two main events on a Spartan political calendar are now upon us: New Jersey and Virginia will elect new governors next week, and the stakes are high, particularly for Democrats. As we have argued before, the only way the Democrats can be judged to have a good night is if they sweep both governorships. Republicans already hold a massive 34-15 advantage in state governorships (there is one independent, Gov. Bill Walker of Alaska). The two races decided next Tuesday are currently split — Democrats hold Virginia, Republicans hold New Jersey. A flip-flop, with Democrats winning the Garden State but Republicans capturing the Old Dominion, would represent no net gain for Democrats, and a maintenance of the net gubernatorial status quo would represent a win for Republicans. A double win by Republicans, which is difficult to fathom, would be a triumph, particularly given the Republicans’ difficulties right now (more on that in a second). A Democratic sweep, meanwhile, would represent progress for the minority party, although Republicans could say that Democrats had an advantageous environment in both states. They would be correct, but the challenge for Republicans is

Kyle Kondik and Geoffrey Skelley

Underneath It All: Elections for the Virginia House of Delegates

While November’s political spotlight will shine brightest on the gubernatorial contest at the top of the Virginia ticket between former Republican National Committee Chairman Ed Gillespie (R) and Lt. Gov. Ralph Northam (D), there will also be many interesting races down-ballot in the Old Dominion on Election Day. Not only will there be elections for the commonwealth’s two other statewide offices — lieutenant governor and attorney general — but all 100 House of Delegates seats will also be up for grabs. The General Assembly’s lower house will probably look a little different after Nov. 7, but the question is, how different? As things stand, the Republicans hold a 66-34 edge over the Democrats in the House of Delegates, meaning that the Democrats must win 17 net seats to retake it. Not shockingly, the Crystal Ball can confidently say that the GOP will maintain control of the chamber. In fact, Northam admitted just as much at a dinner recently where he said he looked forward to current House Majority Leader Kirk Cox (R) becoming speaker of the House (current Speaker Bill Howell is retiring and Cox is the presumptive replacement). Still, the partisan makeup of the House could change quite a

Geoffrey Skelley

Virginia’s Gubernatorial Race: Where Things Stand with Less Than a Month to Go

The November of the year following a presidential election is always relatively quiet on the electoral front, with only regularly-scheduled statewide races for governor in New Jersey and Virginia. With the Garden State’s contest looking like a safe Democratic pickup and Alabama’s special election for the U.S. Senate not happening until December, coverage of the competitive Virginia race seems to be accelerating as it enters the final month before Election Day. This is only natural: gubernatorial elections in the Old Dominion traditionally ramp up around Labor Day, and now that the election is less than four weeks away, the candidates are beginning to go all-in on television ads, which attracts more notice inside and outside of the commonwealth. Some of the national discussion regarding the Virginia contest expresses surprise — in Democratic circles, concern — that it appears to be close. After all, President Donald Trump’s approval rating nationally (and in Virginia) is around 40%, and Hillary Clinton carried Virginia by five percentage points in 2016. Surely the margin in a seemingly purple-to-light-blue state should be more comfortable for the Democratic nominee, Lt. Gov. Ralph Northam? Although all recent public polls show Northam leading Republican nominee Ed Gillespie, the margins

Geoffrey Skelley

“This is the House that Jack Built” Premieres

On Wednesday evening, the University of Virginia Center for Politics and Community Idea Stations hosted the premiere of their new documentary, This is the House that Jack Built, at the Library of Virginia in Richmond. Check your local listings for the documentary, which will begin airing on public television in mid-October. Directed by Paul Tait Roberts and hosted by Center for Politics Director Larry J. Sabato, This is the House that Jack Built touches on familiar themes of JFK’s life and his ascent to the presidency, his mistakes, and his triumphs. But the film also explores new and little-known stories, some which surfaced after the Center for Politics’ Kennedy Half Century project in 2013, which included Sabato’s New York Times-bestselling book, an Emmy Award-winning documentary, and an Emmy Award-nominated Massive Open Online Course. These new stories include a CIA staffer and her discovery of a file on Lee Harvey Oswald that soon thereafter went missing; the sonic analysis of the infamous dictabelt recording from the day of Kennedy’s assassination; and the Warren Commission’s pressure on 19-year-old Buell Wesley Frazier, who drove Oswald to work on Nov. 22, 1963. This program also explores why JFK is still relevant and why he

UVA Center for Politics

New Jersey Democrats: Growing Certainty at the Ballot Box

Ever since comfortably winning the Democratic gubernatorial nomination in June, former Ambassador to Germany Phil Murphy has seemed like a towering favorite to succeed term-limited Gov. Chris Christie (R) as New Jersey’s next governor. Lt. Gov. Kim Guadagno, the Republican nominee, is being dragged down by Christie’s terrible approval ratings, and Murphy has led Guadagno by an average of nearly 25 points in the last three polls, including one released earlier this month by Quinnipiac that showed Murphy up 58%-33%. Expecting Murphy to win this November’s election by such a large margin probably is unrealistic: The undecideds in the Quinnipiac poll lean at least a little Republican. And national Republicans haven’t completely given up on Guadagno — the Republican Governors Association released an attack ad against Murphy earlier this week, although the ad was only 15 seconds long (as opposed to the usual 30) and there was no indication whether or not there was real money behind it. Regardless, Guadagno doesn’t seem capable of making up the requisite amount of ground on Murphy. So we’re moving New Jersey from Likely Democratic to Safe Democratic. More interesting than this gubernatorial race, though, is the ongoing trial of Sen. Robert Menendez (D-NJ),

Kyle Kondik

New Poll: Some Americans Express Troubling Racial Attitudes Even as Majority Oppose White Supremacists

A new Reuters/Ipsos poll conducted in conjunction with the University of Virginia Center for Politics finds that while there is relatively little national endorsement of neo-Nazis and white supremacists, there are troubling levels of support for certain racially-charged ideas and attitudes frequently expressed by extremist groups. The survey also found backing for keeping Confederate monuments in place, the removal of which has become a hot-button issue in communities across the country. As is often the case, these survey results can be interpreted in two quite different ways. On the one hand, despite the events in Charlottesville and elsewhere, few people surveyed expressed direct support for hate groups. But on the other hand, it will be disturbing to many that a not insubstantial proportion of those polled demonstrated neutrality and indifference or, worse, expressed support for antiquated views on race. The large-sample poll (5,360 respondents for most questions) was conducted from Aug. 21 to Sept. 5 in the aftermath of a neo-Nazi rally and counter-protest on the Grounds of the University of Virginia and in downtown Charlottesville, Virginia on Aug. 11-12. Among the questions, respondents were asked if they agreed or disagreed with statements asking whether white people and/or racial minorities

UVA Center for Politics

Governors 2017-2018: The Democrats’ Complicated Path to Big Gains

  Dear Readers: Before we start this week, we wanted to pay tribute to the three people who died over the weekend because of the abhorrent neo-Nazi rally in Charlottesville: Heather D. Heyer and Lt. H. Jay Cullen and Trooper Berke M. M. Bates of the Virginia State Police, as well as those injured. The events of the weekend shook us greatly, and we ask that those who would like to help join us in making a donation to the UVA Health Foundation’s Charlottesville Patient Support Fund, which will support the care of victims who were injured or impacted by this demonstration of hate. — The Editors   A couple of weeks ago, Crystal Ball senior columnist Alan Abramowitz unveiled a model for predicting party change in next year’s gubernatorial elections. The results were rosy for Democrats: The model suggested Democrats should gain somewhere between six to nine governorships depending on the Democratic lead in House generic ballot polling. The Democratic advantage is in large part simply because: 1.) There is a Republican in the White House, and the presidential party often loses ground in midterm elections up and down the ballot; and 2.) Republicans are defending 26 of the

Kyle Kondik