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2018 Governor

Sabato's Crystal Ball

New polls: Tight Senate races across the Sun Belt

A series of new Reuters/Ipsos/University of Virginia Center for Politics polls found close races in the key Senate battlegrounds of Arizona, Florida, Nevada, and Texas. The polls, conducted online in English from Sept. 5 to 17 with roughly 2,000 respondents per state (narrowed down to about 1,000 likely voters per state), found the following results for the Senate and gubernatorial races among likely voters in the five states surveyed: Arizona Senate: Kyrsten Sinema (D) 47%, Martha McSally (R) 44% Arizona Governor: Doug Ducey (R) 51%, David Garcia (D) 39% California Senate: Dianne Feinstein (D) 44%, Kevin de León (D) 24% California Governor: Gavin Newsom (D) 52%, John Cox (R) 40% Florida Senate: Rick Scott (R) 46%, Bill Nelson (D) 45% Florida Governor: Andrew Gillum (D) 50%, Ron DeSantis (R) 44% Nevada Senate: Dean Heller (R) 46%, Jacky Rosen (D) 43% Nevada Governor: Adam Laxalt (R) 43%, Steve Sisolak (D) 40% Texas Senate: Beto O’Rourke (D) 47%, Ted Cruz (R) 45% Texas Governor: Greg Abbott (R) 50%, Lupe Valdez (D) 41% President Donald Trump’s approval rating among likely voters in each state is mixed at best, although perhaps unsurprisingly given how Democratic the state is, Trump’s approval is only very sharply

UVA Center for Politics

Notes on the State of Politics

Governors: The Last Frontier’s three-cornered fight favors the Republicans On Tuesday, an important deadline came and went in Alaska’s gubernatorial race: the final day that a candidate could officially withdraw and not appear on the November ballot. Since former Sen. Mark Begich (D-AK) entered the race on June 1, the final day to file as a candidate, Democrats have worried that he and Gov. Bill Walker (I-AK) might draw from some of the same base of support in the general election, easing the GOP’s path to victory. Walker, a former Republican, ran as an independent with a Democrat as his lieutenant governor nominee in 2014 (Byron Mallott, who is on the same ticket with Walker again), and was something of a de facto Democratic candidate four years ago (there was no Democrat on the ballot). Given the Democrats’ concern about fragmenting the vote, the Sept. 4 deadline to withdraw loomed large, especially as behind-the-scenes dealmakers tried to push Begich or Walker to get out. Begich announced on Tuesday that he would hold an afternoon press conference, leading to speculation that he planned to exit the race, thus preventing a likely split of the left and center in a right-leaning state.

Geoffrey Skelley and Kyle Kondik

A Labor Day Status Report

We’ve been starting Crystal Ball pieces with a few “key points” summing up the article. As we head into Labor Day weekend and the start of the sprint to Election Day, we thought we’d do something different. Instead of key points from this article, here are some key points about this election so far: Pluses for Republicans: The economy is good and we’re not in the midst of an unpopular foreign war, two sometimes-predictors of poor midterm performance for the White House party. The map benefits Republicans in both the battle for the House and the Senate: The median House seat by presidential performance (NE-2) voted for President Donald Trump by two percentage points, while Hillary Clinton won the national popular vote by two, making the median House seat about four points to the right of the nation, which is a good shorthand for the generic GOP edge in the House. In the Senate, Democrats are defending 26 of the 35 seats being contested, one of the worst maps any party has had to defend in a midterm. The president’s approval rating, while poor, has not gotten worse in recent months; the House generic ballot, generally showing a Democratic lead

Kyle Kondik and Geoffrey Skelley

Center for Politics, Ipsos Public Affairs release new midterm election forecasting tools

(WASHINGTON, DC) — The University of Virginia Center for Politics and Ipsos today launched the UVA Center for Politics-Ipsos Political Atlas. The new site combines Sabato’s Crystal Ball race ratings for every House, Senate, and gubernatorial race; Ipsos’ poll-based modeling; and Ipsos’ tracking of social media trends. Ipsos and the Center for Politics unveiled the Political Atlas, www.political-atlas.com, at an event at the National Press Club on Tuesday morning. The idea behind the Political Atlas is that election projection is done best by offering readers several different sources of information, which the Atlas provides through the Crystal Ball’s qualitative race rating assessments and the Ipsos’ poll-based model and social media tracking. The three methods provide separate race ratings (Toss-up, as well as Leans, Likely, and Safe Democratic or Republican) to assess the likelihood of either side winning a given race. “The best practice in forecasting understands that no single approach leads to knowing the future. The most robust predictions use multiple, independent indicators and looks for common conclusions or divergent directions,” said Clifford Young, president of Ipsos Public Affairs. The Political Atlas will include: Daily updates of the main issues affecting citizens in all 50 states. Polling and social media

UVA Center for Politics

The Governors: Ratings Changes Abound

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — We have six gubernatorial ratings changes this week, as shown in Table 1 and described below. We also have two House ratings changes. — Democrats should net governorships, and more than just a few, but there’s a lot of uncertainty. To wit: Three of the ratings changes benefit Democrats, but the other three are in favor of Republicans. — Watch the Midwest. The Republicans control five of the six governorships on the ballot this fall from that region, but the Democrats hypothetically could sweep all six or at least win several of those races. Table 1: Crystal Ball gubernatorial ratings changes Governor Old Rating New Rating GA Open (Deal, R) Likely Republican Leans Republican Larry Hogan (R-MD) Leans Republican Likely Republican ME Open (LePage, R) Leans Democratic Toss-up MN Open (Dayton, D) Toss-up Leans Democratic Kate Brown (D-OR) Likely Democratic Leans Democratic Scott Walker (R-WI) Leans Republican Toss-up Map 1: Crystal Ball gubernatorial ratings Table 2: Crystal Ball House ratings changes Member/District Old Rating New Rating Bruce Poliquin (R, ME-2) Leans Republican Toss-up WI-1 Open (Ryan, R) Toss-up Leans Republican Now that 40 of the 50 states have held primaries so far, including major

Kyle Kondik

A Failure to Launch? Kansas’ Republican Gubernatorial Contest and the History of Incumbent Governor Primary Performance

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — As of Wednesday afternoon, Gov. Jeff Colyer (R-KS) trailed Kansas Secretary of State Kris Kobach (R) 40.6%-40.5% in Kansas’ gubernatorial primary. If Colyer’s deficit holds, it would mark the first primary loss for an incumbent governor in 2018. — If the final outcome is similar to the current vote, Colyer’s defeat would make history: His present margin of defeat stands as the narrowest ever for an incumbent governor in a primary. Conversely, if Colyer wins based on the counting of outstanding votes and/or a recount, he could claim the record for narrowest primary win among incumbent governors. — From the first statewide primaries in the late 19th century through Tuesday, incumbent governors have sought renomination in primaries 916 times. Out of those attempts, incumbents have won 830 times, a 91% renomination rate. But about one-third (300) of the 916 primaries in question featured no opposition for the incumbent seeking renomination. If we remove those races, incumbents in contested primaries won 530 out of 616 contests, an 86% renomination rate. — Of the 616 contested primaries with incumbents, 541 featured elected incumbents and 75 unelected, successor incumbents. Overall, 87% of elected incumbent governors have won

Geoffrey Skelley

Three Republican Governors Face Increasingly Tough Election Contests

KEY POINT FROM THIS ARTICLE — The Crystal Ball has three ratings changes in gubernatorial contests, all shifts in the Democrats’ direction: Arizona moves from Likely Republican to Leans Republican, Illinois moves from Leans Democratic to Likely Democratic, and Iowa moves from Leans Republican to Toss-up. New ratings in Arizona, Illinois, and Iowa Arizona and Iowa have few obvious things in common, but they do both have incumbent Republican governors seeking election in November. Another commonality is that the Crystal Ball now views both states’ gubernatorial contests as increasingly competitive, prompting ratings changes that move the Arizona race from Likely Republican to Leans Republican and the Iowa race from Leans Republican to Toss-up. In addition to these two changes, we are also shifting Illinois’ gubernatorial contest from Leans Democratic to Likely Democratic, another downgrade for Republicans. Table 1: Crystal Ball gubernatorial ratings changes Governor Old Rating New Rating Doug Ducey (R-AZ) Likely Republican Leans Republican Kim Reynolds (R-IA) Leans Republican Toss-up Bruce Rauner (R-IL) Leans Democratic Likely Democratic Map 1: Crystal Ball gubernatorial ratings In Arizona, Gov. Doug Ducey (R) is seeking his second term, having won a comfortable 12-point victory in 2014. Given the Grand Canyon State’s Republican lean

Geoffrey Skelley

Registering By Party: Where the Democrats and Republicans Are Ahead

KEY POINT FROM THIS ARTICLE — Altogether, there are 31 states (plus the District of Columbia) with party registration; in the others, such as Virginia, voters register without reference to party. In 19 states and the District, there are more registered Democrats than Republicans. In 12 states, there are more registered Republicans than Democrats. In aggregate, 40% of all voters in party registration states are Democrats, 29% are Republicans, and 28% are independents. Nationally, the Democratic advantage in the party registration states approaches 12 million. Poring over party registration This is not the best of times for the Democratic Party. No White House; no Senate; no House of Representatives; and a clear minority of governorships and state legislatures in their possession. Yet the Democrats approach this fall’s midterm elections with an advantage in one key aspect of the political process — their strength in states where voters register by party. Altogether, there are 31 states (plus the District of Columbia) with party registration; in the others, such as Virginia, voters register without reference to party. Among the party registration states are some of the nation’s most populous: California, New York, Florida, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, New Jersey, Arizona, and Massachusetts. The

Rhodes Cook

Senate 2018: Two Rust Belt Ratings Move in the Democrats’ Direction

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — The Crystal Ball has new ratings in the Pennsylvania and Wisconsin U.S. Senate contests, both in Democrats’ direction. In Pennsylvania, Sen. Bob Casey’s (D) reelection bid moves from Likely Democratic to Safe Democratic, while in Wisconsin, Sen. Tammy Baldwin’s (D) race goes from Leans Democratic to Likely Democratic. — Overall, we now rate 49 Senate seats as at least leaning toward the GOP, 44 as at least leaning toward the Democrats (and the two independents who caucus with them), and seven seats as Toss-ups. Republicans remain favorites to hold the Senate after the 2018 election in November, although there is a narrow path for Democrats to take the majority. — Finally, Democrats have a real chance at an upset in one of the Trumpiest districts in the country, WV-3. The Crystal Ball is shifting its rating there from Likely Republican to Leans Republican. Table 1: Crystal Ball Senate ratings changes Senator Old Rating New Rating Bob Casey (D-PA) Likely Democratic Safe Democratic Tammy Baldwin (D-WI) Leans Democratic Likely Democratic Table 2: Crystal Ball House ratings change Member/District Old Rating New Rating WV-3 Open (Jenkins, R) Likely Republican Leans Republican Many Rust Belt races look

Geoffrey Skelley

What Happened in the June 12 Primary

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE: — Maine became the first state in modern U.S. history to use ranked-choice voting (also known as instant-runoff voting) in a statewide election. But this was not the first time that a state used a form of ranked voting or preferential voting. In the early 1900s, a number of states tried out ranked-voting methods, including in statewide contests for offices such as U.S. Senate and governor. — In Virginia, Prince William County Board of Supervisors Chairman Corey Stewart (R) narrowly defeated state Del. Nick Freitas (R) 45%-43% to win the GOP nomination for U.S. Senate. Anti-Stewart forces rallied late to boost Freitas, but came up just short, much to the chagrin of many GOP leaders. Women won five of the six Democratic primaries for the U.S. House, including in all of the competitive House seats. — In other primaries, the most notable result was Rep. Mark Sanford (R, SC-1) losing his primary to state Rep. Katie Arrington (R). Arrington likely will be fine in November but we’re moving the district from Safe Republican to Likely Republican. Table 1: Crystal Ball House ratings change Member/District Old Rating New Rating SC-1 Open (Sanford, R) Safe Republican Likely

Geoffrey Skelley and Kyle Kondik

A Post-Memorial Day Status Report

KEY POINTS IN THIS ARTICLE — Both Democrats and Republicans have about equal odds of winning the House majority. — Republicans remain clearly favored in the battle for Senate control. — Democrats should start 2019 with at least a few more net governorships than they hold now. Checking in on 2018’s big picture In a bygone political era, the symbolic end of summer — Labor Day — denoted the unofficial start of the campaign season. In our current era, one might be tempted to say that the symbolic start of summer — Memorial Day — now represents the campaign season kickoff, though American politics is in a state of perpetual campaigning. As soon as one campaign concludes with an election, candidates for the next election start to emerge. That will be the case after this November’s election, when one would expect the battle for the Democratic presidential nomination to begin in earnest. Still, the effective start of summer offers an opportunity to assess where the races for the House, Senate, and governorships stand. So we thought we’d offer brief updates on the state of play. The race for the House Map 1: Crystal Ball House ratings Source: Map is reprinted

Kyle Kondik

Clues from the Upcoming California Primary

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — The California primary on June 5 is the most important election in the battle for the House prior to November. — Democrats are hoping to avoid getting shut out of November by the state’s top-two primary in multiple districts, and the results should provide a rough guide for the fall. — Tuesday’s primary results did not prompt any ratings changes but did set up some interesting matchups for the fall. — One ratings change in the House: Rep. Ralph Norman (R, SC-5) moves from Likely Republican to Safe Republican. We also have a pending change in store if Rep. Tom Garrett (R, VA-5) decides not to run for a second term (explanations below). — Odds of a Democratic House takeover remain about 50-50. As the Democratic edge on the generic ballot has weakened in recent weeks, there has been a flood of second-guessing about whether the Democrats are favored in the House or not. Because we’ve never made the Democrats clear favorites in the House, though, we don’t have any modifications to our outlook. Table 1: Crystal Ball House ratings change California’s primary: A November preview, of sorts House analysts know that handicapping results

Kyle Kondik

Mad As Hell: How Anger Diminishes Trust in Government

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — Over the past 60 years, trust in government has declined precipitously. Whereas high levels of trust in the national government were typical during the Eisenhower Administration, by 2016 only a fifth of Americans said they trusted the government “always” or “most of the time.” — Using a survey experiment and utilizing a technique known as “emotional recall,” I find that individuals asked to write about a time they were very angry or to write about a time they were very angry about politics were more likely to agree that the national government is unresponsive to the concerns and interests of the public. Merely asking individuals to recall a time they had thought about politics had no effect on lowering trust in government. These results indicate that anger does play a causal role in lowering citizens’ trust in the government. — A regression analysis of respondents’ use of angry words as well as positive and negative emotional words revealed that those who were primed to exhibit higher levels of apolitical anger offered the most negative views of the national government. That is, apolitical issues, rather than political issues, elicited the most anger. This suggests that

Steven Webster

Ratings Changes: Senate, Governor, House

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — Republican primary voters avoided a self-inflicted wound in West Virginia when disgraced coal baron Don Blankenship (R) finished third in the GOP Senate primary. — Much else went as expected Tuesday night. — Five ratings changes this week affect races for Senate, governor, and House, but most importantly broaden the Senate playing field. Table 1: Crystal Ball ratings changes The Senate Tuesday night’s marquee primary came in West Virginia, where rumors based on internal polls suggested that Don Blankenship (R), a disgraced former coal company executive who had recently served jail time for ignoring federal mine safety laws in connection with a mining disaster that killed 29 in 2010, was poised to win the Republican Senate nomination in the Mountain State. Blankenship ended up finishing in third. The anti-Blankenship bubble may have been a way for national Republicans to cajole President Donald Trump into weighing in against Blankenship, which he did on Monday. As it turned out, Blankenship probably was never as serious a contender for the nomination as he might have seemed. In any event, Republican primary voters in West Virginia avoided making a silly decision Tuesday. They ultimately picked state Attorney General

Kyle Kondik and Geoffrey Skelley

Ohio’s Primary: The Heart of It All

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — The fissures emerging in both parties are evident in Ohio as the state holds its primary next week on May 8. — The likeliest matchup in the state’s open-seat gubernatorial race is a rematch of 2010’s battle for state attorney general, as former AG Richard Cordray (D)[1] and current AG Mike DeWine (R) remain the favorites to win their respective party nominations. But upsets are possible on either side. — Democrats may have the wind at their backs even in Ohio this fall, a state that moved significantly to the right in 2016. But if Democrats can’t win in 2018 in Ohio, when can they? COLUMBUS, OH — It may be that Ohio, the great bellwether state, is moving away from the nation’s center in presidential elections. For the first time in more than a half century, the state’s popular vote outcome was not close to the national result in a presidential election: Donald Trump won the state in 2016 by eight points while losing nationally by two, giving the Buckeye State a significant Republican lean after decades of exhibiting only a slight such lean. Assuming Trump is on the ballot in 2020, he

Kyle Kondik