2018 Governor

In addition to the entire U.S. House of Representatives and about one-third of the U.S. Senate, Americans will be choosing 36 state governors in 2018. Control of statehouses is crucial not only because many important policy decisions are made at the state level, but because the governors elected next year will, in many cases, play key roles in redrawing congressional and state legislative district lines after the 2020 census. A forecasting model that has produced accurate predictions of the results of midterm U.S. House elections can also be used to predict the results of gubernatorial contests in midterm election years with a high degree of accuracy. The model is based on something called the “generic ballot.” This is a question included in numerous national polls asking voters about which party they prefer in the upcoming U.S. House elections. It turns out that even though the question asks about House elections, the results of this generic ballot test can be used to accurately forecast the gubernatorial seat swing in midterm elections. The president’s party typically loses gubernatorial seats in midterm elections — this has been true in 14 of 18 midterm elections since World War II. The average loss for the

There was one close race and one not-so close race in the gubernatorial primaries in Virginia on Tuesday, but the margins were the opposite of what most expected: Lt. Gov. Ralph Northam (D) beat former U.S. Rep. Tom Perriello (D) by about a dozen points in the closely-watched Democratic primary. Meanwhile, 2014 Senate nominee and former Republican National Committee Chairman Ed Gillespie (R) just squeaked by Prince William County Board of Supervisors Chairman Corey Stewart (R) in the not-as-closely watched GOP primary. As the general election period begins, we’re moving the race from Toss-up to Leans Democratic. This is an election that Democrats should be able to nationalize with President Donald Trump in the White House in a state where Trump’s approval is low. Almost all state-level elected Democrats believed that Northam was a better fit for this statewide race than Perriello. That’s both because Northam’s low-key style is more in keeping with the model of previously successful statewide Democrats (as opposed to the more fiery and populist Perriello) and because they believed Northam’s background in state government was a better fit for the job than Perriello’s background, which is in federal government and advocacy. National Republicans strongly preferred Gillespie

With the Virginia primary less than a week away, the eyes of the political world are now focused on the Old Dominion. Considering the early polling in New Jersey’s gubernatorial general election contest, where Phil Murphy (D) starts as the favorite over Lt. Gov. Kim Guadagno (R) after both won their respective party nominations on Tuesday (more on that below), it seems likely that Virginia’s race will be the marquee election of 2017, though the June 20 House special election in GA-6 might have a case. Here’s what to look for in the Virginia primary on Tuesday, June 13. The Democratic gubernatorial primary The Democratic gubernatorial primary contest between Lt. Gov. Ralph Northam and ex-Rep. Tom Perriello will undoubtedly get top billing on June 13. This matchup has prompted comparisons to the Hillary Clinton-Bernie Sanders clash in the 2016 Democratic presidential primary, but many observers (including the Crystal Ball) have taken issue with elements of that analogy. Still, the insurgent-establishment contrast works: Virginia Democratic leaders wanted Northam to have the primary period to raise money and prepare for the general election, but Perriello’s candidacy upset those plans. Now Northam has had to spend $4.4 million since the start of 2017,

On Monday, Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) moved to end debate on the nomination of Gov. Terry Branstad (R-IA) as the next U.S. ambassador to China. While the exact timeline is uncertain — Democrats could try to stall the appointment — Branstad’s confirmation for the diplomatic post is expected very soon. Upon becoming ambassador, Branstad will resign the Hawkeye State governorship and hand the reins over to Lt. Gov. Kim Reynolds (R), who will become Iowa’s first woman governor. Once she takes office, Reynolds is expected to run for a full term in 2018 as a gubernatorial incumbent, albeit a “successor incumbent” rather than an elected one. She is unlikely to be the only such incumbent running in 2018. As things stand, there are already two freshly-minted governors who may fit the bill: Govs. Kay Ivey (R-AL) and Henry McMaster (R-SC) are already ensconced in their new posts due to the resignation of Gov. Robert Bentley (R-AL) and the appointment of former Gov. Nikki Haley (R-SC) as U.S. ambassador to the United Nations. Ivey has not yet stated her plans regarding the 2018 election, but it would somewhat surprising if she didn’t run. After all, she ran in the

Those looking for electoral drama in the 2018 cycle should pay attention to the 38 gubernatorial races being held this year and next. In our initial ratings of these contests, more than half of them — 20 of 38 — start in the competitive Toss-up or Leans Republican/Democratic categories. That includes a whopping 10 Toss-ups: five of those are currently controlled by Republicans, four by Democrats, and one by an independent (Bill Walker of Alaska). Contributing to this slew of competitive ratings is the fact that so many of the governorships contested over the next year and a half are open: At least roughly half of them will not feature an incumbent, and an additional three (Alabama, Iowa, and South Carolina) will or are likely to feature an unelected incumbent seeking a first elected term. The high number of open seats should spur a considerable amount of party changes, which would be similar to the 2009-2010 cycle, another period where there were not a ton of incumbents on the ballot and when about half of the governorships contested changed party hands. These party changes largely broke in the Republicans’ direction, and the GOP has only increased its advantage since then.

Given the Democrats’ poor down-ballot performances in the Obama years, and the Republican dominance of redistricting following the GOP’s success in the 2010 midterm, it’s somewhat fitting that arguably the Democrats’ most marquee victory in 2016 will not help them in the redistricting battles to come after the 2020 census. Despite losing the presidency and failing to capture the Senate, one silver lining for Democrats was taking back the governorship of North Carolina: Now-Gov. Roy Cooper (D) narrowly beat incumbent Pat McCrory (R). The Tar Heel State will have another election, in 2020, before the census is finalized and redistricting will begin across the nation in 2021. Cooper, as the incumbent, may be favored in that election, although incumbency didn’t save McCrory from defeat. But even if Cooper wins, North Carolina is one of the only states that doesn’t give the governor any power over congressional redistricting. So long as Republicans keep control of the state legislature in Raleigh — they currently have big majorities in each chamber — they will draw new congressional district lines after 2020. Midterm cycles feature most of the state governors’ races: Next year, 36 of the 50 states will have a gubernatorial race (two

Until former Rep. Tom Perriello (D) shook up the Democratic nomination contest in early January, the Republican field had generated most of the early buzz in Virginia’s 2017 gubernatorial race. But while some eyes have turned to the brewing battle between Perriello and Lt. Gov. Ralph Northam (D), there is still plenty to discuss on the Republican side of the primary aisle. Last week, the Crystal Ball explored the Democratic matchup; this week, we take a look at the GOP clash. No Republican has won a statewide election in Virginia since 2009, but the four candidates seeking the party’s nomination aim to change that this November. For the first time since 2005, the Republican Party of Virginia will employ a primary to pick its nominees for the three statewide offices up in 2017. However, that was not the original plan. In June 2015, the state’s central committee narrowly voted to hold a presidential primary in 2016, bucking the desires of more conservative members of the party who favored holding a convention instead of a primary. But as a part of holding a presidential primary in 2016, members compromised to recommend the use of a convention to select statewide nominees in

When President-elect Donald Trump takes the oath of office eight days from now, he will be completing a remarkable journey, going from private citizen to the highest elected office in the nation without any elected stop in between. But while Trump is, to put it mildly, a unique figure in presidential politics, his journey is one that we are increasingly seeing on a smaller scale at the gubernatorial level. As Reid Wilson of The Hill recently found, there are a striking number of U.S. state governors who never held elected office prior to winning their state’s governorship. About a quarter of them — 13 of 50 — won their first electoral victory of any kind to become the top official in their respective states. Those 13 governors are: Rick Scott (R-FL), Bruce Rauner (R-IL), Eric Holcomb (R-IN), Matt Bevin (R-KY), Larry Hogan (R-MD), Rick Snyder (R-MI), Eric Greitens (R-MO), Pete Ricketts (R-NE), Doug Burgum (R-ND), Tom Wolf (D-PA), Terry McAuliffe (D-VA), Jim Justice (D-WV), and Matt Mead (R-WY). While many of these governors did have significant experience in and around politics and government, they, like Trump, bypassed service in lower-level elected jobs prior to winning their current offices. This is

To the delight of Virginia political junkies, the Old Dominion has a notable election every November, with federal contests in even-numbers years and state elections in odd-numbered ones. So it’s always “on to the next one,” with eyes now turning to the state’s 2017 gubernatorial election to succeed Gov. Terry McAuliffe (D). Virginia is unique in that it does not permit its governors to seek reelection (though they can run for non-consecutive terms), so McAuliffe is term-limited. Until last week, all the action appeared to be on the Republican side, with four candidates in the field to the Democrats’ one. Then word began to spread that Tom Perriello (D), a former State Department envoy and former one-term member of Congress[*], would run for governor. As Perriello has officially announced his candidacy, now we are really off to the races, with compelling primaries for governor in both parties. As we begin 2017, many eyes are understandably trained on President-elect Donald Trump as his inauguration nears. But the Virginia gubernatorial contest in November 2017 (as well as New Jersey’s) will be one of the first electoral tests of how Trump is playing nationally, especially considering the proximity and influence of Washington, DC