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2018 House

Sabato's Crystal Ball

House 2018: Less Than a Year Out, Race for Control Is a Coin Flip

In the aftermath of the 2014 midterm election, when the party that didn’t hold the White House (the Republicans) gained ground in the House for the 36th time in 39 midterms since the Civil War, I wrote the following in the Center for Politics’ postmortem on the election, The Surge: Practically speaking, though, House Democrats might have to root for the other party in the 2016 presidential race. Why? Because given what we know about midterm elections almost always going against the president’s party in the House, perhaps the next best chance for the Democrats to win the House will be in 2018 — if a Republican is in the White House. We didn’t see many House Democrats rooting for Donald Trump to win the general election in 2016, but the simple fact of his election made a Democratic House takeover much more likely in the 2018 midterm just because of the longstanding trend for the presidential party to lose ground in the House. The electorate often uses the midterm to put a check on the executive, particularly if that executive is unpopular. “The midterm election pattern,” writes Andrew Busch in his study of midterm elections, Horses in Midstream, “virtually

Kyle Kondik

Watch the 2017 American Democracy Conference

On Nov. 16, the University of Virginia Center for Politics hosts the 19th annual American Democracy Conference in Charlottesville, VA. The conference features leading journalists and political experts discussing the upcoming 2018 midterm election cycle, the first year of Donald Trump’s presidency, and early thoughts on the 2020 presidential election. The conference is taking place in Alumni Hall on the Grounds of the University of Virginia — 211 Emmet Street South in Charlottesville. Doors open at 8:30 a.m. and the event begins at 9:00 a.m. The conference is free and open to the public with advance registration, and the press is invited to attend. The conference is being livestreamed online at the following link: https://livestream.com/tavco/2017ADC. For more information on the conference, its panels, and its panelists, please visit http://www.centerforpolitics.org/adc.html.

UVA Center for Politics

Democratic Domination in the Old Dominion

Editor’s note: This piece is based on unofficial 2017 election returns. Tuesday represented the best non-presidential election night Democrats have had since 2006. They swept the statewide ticket in Virginia for the second election in a row, and they picked up the New Jersey governorship. They also won a crucial, majority-making state Senate election in Washington state, so they won complete control of state government in two states (New Jersey and Washington). Ever since the June primary, we thought Gov.-elect Ralph Northam (D) had a small edge in the Virginia gubernatorial race, which is why we rated it as Leans Democratic for the whole general election period even as Northam hit some seeming rough patches. But the size of his victory — nine points — was notable, and his ticket-mates, Attorney General Mark Herring (D) and Lt. Gov.-elect Justin Fairfax (D), won by smaller but still decisive margins. But the big shock to us, and to anyone who is honest about their pre-election expectations, was the Democrats winning what could be a 50-50 tie in the Virginia House of Delegates. Democrats went into the election at a 66-34 deficit in the House, and while they were expected to win seats,

Kyle Kondik and Geoffrey Skelley

Primary Colors in Red

A Trump-Bannon move against Republican incumbents would not be unprecedented, but having widespread success would be… If President Trump actively campaigned against incumbents of his own party in primaries next year, it would be an unusual political occurrence. But it would not be without precedent. In fact, he wouldn’t even be the first ideologically flexible, wealthy New Yorker who occupied the Oval Office to do so. President Franklin Delano Roosevelt tried to knock off several fellow Democrats in 1938 primaries. Back then, neither party was ideologically cohesive and a lot of key Democrats were conservatives (many were from the South, but there were several others from outside of the South, too). Roosevelt, along with many others (including prominent political scientists), wanted the parties to be sorted ideologically, with the Democrats as the clearly liberal party and the Republicans as the clearly conservative one. Over the course of several decades, they got their wish in the current iteration of our two-party system, although it’s debatable as to whether the nation is necessarily better off for it. In any event, the FDR purge proved to be largely unsuccessful. Only one of the conservative Democrats who FDR disliked, Rep. John O’Connor of New

Kyle Kondik

Underneath It All: Elections for the Virginia House of Delegates

While November’s political spotlight will shine brightest on the gubernatorial contest at the top of the Virginia ticket between former Republican National Committee Chairman Ed Gillespie (R) and Lt. Gov. Ralph Northam (D), there will also be many interesting races down-ballot in the Old Dominion on Election Day. Not only will there be elections for the commonwealth’s two other statewide offices — lieutenant governor and attorney general — but all 100 House of Delegates seats will also be up for grabs. The General Assembly’s lower house will probably look a little different after Nov. 7, but the question is, how different? As things stand, the Republicans hold a 66-34 edge over the Democrats in the House of Delegates, meaning that the Democrats must win 17 net seats to retake it. Not shockingly, the Crystal Ball can confidently say that the GOP will maintain control of the chamber. In fact, Northam admitted just as much at a dinner recently where he said he looked forward to current House Majority Leader Kirk Cox (R) becoming speaker of the House (current Speaker Bill Howell is retiring and Cox is the presumptive replacement). Still, the partisan makeup of the House could change quite a

Geoffrey Skelley

“This is the House that Jack Built” Premieres

On Wednesday evening, the University of Virginia Center for Politics and Community Idea Stations hosted the premiere of their new documentary, This is the House that Jack Built, at the Library of Virginia in Richmond. Check your local listings for the documentary, which will begin airing on public television in mid-October. Directed by Paul Tait Roberts and hosted by Center for Politics Director Larry J. Sabato, This is the House that Jack Built touches on familiar themes of JFK’s life and his ascent to the presidency, his mistakes, and his triumphs. But the film also explores new and little-known stories, some which surfaced after the Center for Politics’ Kennedy Half Century project in 2013, which included Sabato’s New York Times-bestselling book, an Emmy Award-winning documentary, and an Emmy Award-nominated Massive Open Online Course. These new stories include a CIA staffer and her discovery of a file on Lee Harvey Oswald that soon thereafter went missing; the sonic analysis of the infamous dictabelt recording from the day of Kennedy’s assassination; and the Warren Commission’s pressure on 19-year-old Buell Wesley Frazier, who drove Oswald to work on Nov. 22, 1963. This program also explores why JFK is still relevant and why he

UVA Center for Politics

New Poll: Some Americans Express Troubling Racial Attitudes Even as Majority Oppose White Supremacists

A new Reuters/Ipsos poll conducted in conjunction with the University of Virginia Center for Politics finds that while there is relatively little national endorsement of neo-Nazis and white supremacists, there are troubling levels of support for certain racially-charged ideas and attitudes frequently expressed by extremist groups. The survey also found backing for keeping Confederate monuments in place, the removal of which has become a hot-button issue in communities across the country. As is often the case, these survey results can be interpreted in two quite different ways. On the one hand, despite the events in Charlottesville and elsewhere, few people surveyed expressed direct support for hate groups. But on the other hand, it will be disturbing to many that a not insubstantial proportion of those polled demonstrated neutrality and indifference or, worse, expressed support for antiquated views on race. The large-sample poll (5,360 respondents for most questions) was conducted from Aug. 21 to Sept. 5 in the aftermath of a neo-Nazi rally and counter-protest on the Grounds of the University of Virginia and in downtown Charlottesville, Virginia on Aug. 11-12. Among the questions, respondents were asked if they agreed or disagreed with statements asking whether white people and/or racial minorities

UVA Center for Politics

House 2018: Reichert Retirement Creates Big Democratic Opportunity

The retirement of Rep. Dave Reichert (R, WA-8) on Wednesday from a swing district immediately transforms that district from a longshot Democratic pickup opportunity to one of their best chances to flip a GOP-held seat in the whole country. Accordingly, we’re moving it from Likely Republican all the way to Toss-up. Reichert, a former King County (Seattle) sheriff, was first elected in 2004, and despite being a top Democratic target in the 2006 and 2008 wave years, held on each time (even as Barack Obama was winning the district by 15 points in his initial election). Reichert became entrenched after redistricting made WA-8, which includes suburbs of Seattle and Tacoma, more Republican, and at the presidential level it now votes quite similarly to the national average: Hillary Clinton won it by three points last year while carrying the national popular vote by two. A key factor in a potential Democratic House takeover next year is how many, and which, Republicans decide not to run for reelection next year. Taking over open seats is easier than defeating incumbents, and a Crystal Ball analysis recently found that the president’s party often sees a giant drop in midterm performance in open seats from

Kyle Kondik

House 2018: How big is the playing field?

If Democrats do have a chance to win the House next year, it might be because they translated a currently big field of announced candidates into credible opportunities to flip not just some of the top seats on their list of targets, but also some seats that, on paper, might not seem like they should be competitive. If that’s what happens — a big if at such an early point in the cycle despite President Trump’s unpopularity and the usual midterm trends that favor the party that does not hold the White House — it would mirror what happened when the Democrats last won the House from Republican control in 2006. That year, Democrats ended up netting 31 seats, but they were not exactly the 31 seats that many might have thought would flip going into the election. Several embattled GOP incumbents from districts that Democratic presidential nominee John Kerry had won or came very close to winning in 2004 ended up eking out close victories in 2006, including Reps. Chris Shays (R, CT-4), Heather Wilson (R, NM-1), Deborah Pryce (R, OH-15), and Jim Gerlach (R, PA-6). Had one known before the election that all four of these Republican incumbents

Kyle Kondik

Center for Politics Reveals Trailer for New John F. Kennedy Documentary

A trailer for the University of Virginia Center for Politics’ forthcoming documentary, This Is The House That Jack Built, is now available. The documentary is the latest collaboration between the Center for Politics and Community Idea Stations, which regularly partner to produce documentary films for public television on American politics and history. This Is The House That Jack Built touches on familiar themes of JFK’s life and his ascent to the presidency, his mistakes, and his triumphs. But the film also explores new and little-known stories, some that surfaced after the Center for Politics’ Kennedy Half Century project in 2013, which included Center for Politics Director Larry J. Sabato’s New York Times-bestselling book, an Emmy Award-winning documentary, and an Emmy Award-nominated Massive Open Online Course. These new stories include a CIA staffer and her discovery of a file on Lee Harvey Oswald that soon thereafter went missing; the sonic analysis of the infamous dictabelt recording from the day of Kennedy’s assassination; and the Warren Commission’s pressure on 19-year-old Buell Wesley Frazier, who drove Oswald to work on Nov. 22, 1963. This program also explores why JFK is still relevant and why he so interests the public even 100 years after

UVA Center for Politics

For House Republicans, Past Performance Is No Guarantee of Future Results

As they dig their trenches to try to withstand what may (or may not be) a Democratic wave, Republicans may take heart in the performance of their current incumbents last year as a buffer against a potentially challenging environment next year. Very few of the Republicans’ 241 House victories last year were small. Just 15 districts featured a GOP win in the single digits, meaning that 226 House Republicans had margins of victory of 10 points or more. So in order to capture a majority, Democrats must win several districts that most recently delivered decisive wins to the GOP. However, the results from the last election may not actually be all that meaningful because House performance can vary greatly from one election to the next, particularly if there is a wave-style environment. The last three midterms are illustrative in this regard. During the 2006, 2010, and 2014 midterms — all of which featured decisive House victories for the non-presidential party, which is relatively common in midterms — we looked at how the two-party vote shares for candidates from the president’s party changed from the preceding presidential year to the midterm. In other words, we looked at the Republican two-party vote

Kyle Kondik

Generic Ballot Model Gives Democrats Early Advantage in Battle for Control of House

Results of recent special elections have fueled speculation about whether Democrats have a realistic chance to regain control of the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2018 midterm elections. Although Republican candidates have won recent special elections for seats vacated by President Donald Trump’s Cabinet appointees in Georgia, Kansas, Montana, and South Carolina, the GOP victory margins in all four contests have been much smaller than those for the former Republican incumbents in 2016. While Democrats have pointed to the substantial vote swing in these four special elections as a sign that a wave election may be coming in 2018, Republicans have emphasized the failure of Democrats to actually capture any of these Republican seats, especially the hotly contested seat vacated by Secretary of Health and Human Services Tom Price in Georgia’s Sixth Congressional District, as an indicator that they should have a good chance to hold onto their majority in the midterm elections. In reality, the results of a handful of special elections probably provide little information about what to expect next fall. Fortunately, there is a better way of predicting the outcomes of midterm elections based on something called the “generic ballot.” This is a question included in

Alan I. Abramowitz

2006 Shows Why Democratic Loss in GA-6 Stings

Editor’s Note: As we telegraphed last week, we are moving GA-6 from Toss-up to Leans Republican and installing Rep.-elect Karen Handel (R) as a favorite for the 2018 midterm after her victory over former congressional aide Jon Ossoff (D). Additionally, we are moving SC-5 to Safe Republican after Rep.-elect Ralph Norman (R) won, though his three-point margin of victory was not nearly as strong as Donald Trump’s 18-point win there last November. Reacting to the GA-6 results this week is guest columnist Robert Wheel, who argues that the Democrats missed out on a golden opportunity by failing to capture GA-6. — The Editors   Demoralized and out of power but able to run against an unpopular president who is proving to be a poor manager, Democrats might be forgiven if there’s a tinge of déjà vu about the 2018 midterm elections. They faced a similar landscape back in 2006 — even down to the playing field tilted against them. In 2006, Democrats needed to net 16 seats for a majority, but there were only 18 Republican-held seats that John Kerry won in the 2004 presidential election. In 2018, Democrats will need 24 seats to win a majority, but there are

Robert Wheel

The Georgia House special: Still on the Razor’s Edge

We are not going to make a call in the GA-6 special election. Such elections are notoriously hard to poll and prone to unpredictable results. Besides, events of recent days (the British parliamentary elections, where the Conservatives did worse than many expected, as well as the Virginia gubernatorial primaries, which defied most polls) and months (our own presidential election) have instructed us that discretion is sometimes the better part of valor in the election prognostication game. So GA-6 remains a Toss-up. All that said, it does seem like going into the much-watched election Tuesday (June 20), one would probably rather be former congressional aide Jon Ossoff (D) than ex-Georgia Secretary of State Karen Handel (R), albeit only narrowly. There are three reasons for that: 1. He has led several recent public polls and is at or slightly above 50% in three of them, which is generally a good sign for any candidate; 2. He has raised an absurd amount of money and is decisively winning the ad war despite Republican outside groups outspending Democratic outside groups; and 3. We’re in a national environment that is generally anti-Republican and/or pro-Democratic on account of President Trump’s poor approval ratings and the general

Kyle Kondik

What to Make of Montana?

The Great Depression-era Montana: A State Guide Book, produced as part of the federal government’s American Guide Series, notes that the state’s history “is alive with action and color.” That doubles as a great description of the state’s special at-large congressional election, particularly its outrageous final hours, during which Rep.-elect Greg Gianforte (R, MT-AL) attacked a reporter. The incoming congressman now faces misdemeanor charges even as he basks in the glory of electoral victory. In previewing the race last week, we thought the likely outcome — a Gianforte win in the single digits — would be notable in that it would continue the trend of Democrats generally outperforming Hillary Clinton’s 2016 showing in the small but growing number of special U.S. House and state legislative elections. According to a running tally by Daily Kos Elections, MT-AL represented the 18th such election since last November’s presidential election, and the Democrat has now performed better than Clinton in 12 of them, and on average they’ve done 11 points better in terms of margin — a stark contrast to special elections conducted in the leadup to the 2014 midterms, when Democrats routinely undershot Barack Obama’s 2012 margins. That tally includes two big Democratic

Kyle Kondik