2018 House

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — Two approaches to forecasting — one formally statistical, one rigorous yet flexible handicapping — produce different tools that we can use to evaluate the battle for control of the U.S. House in the 2018 midterms. — The Crystal Ball and other political handicappers use a “qualitative” method to generate ratings of individual seats using election news, candidate evaluation, and some hard data. Others use quantitative modeling to produce probabilities of how likely it is for one party or the other to win each House seat. — The quantitative model described below is more bullish on the Democrats’ House prospects than the Crystal Ball’s race ratings, but both indicate considerable uncertainty about which party will win a House majority this November. — Those following this year’s House elections would be wise to take into account both qualitative race ratings, like those done by the Crystal Ball, as well as quantitative models, like the model described below, when assessing the race for the House. Introduction To understand the differences between quantitative, data-driven predictions and those made from traditional, data-influenced handicapping, one should direct their attention to the names of two websites: Sabato’s Crystal Ball at the University of Virginia Center

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — While votes will not be finalized for weeks, Democrats seemingly avoided shutouts in competitive House races in California. — The initial results, while not necessarily predictive for the fall, show the potential for Democrats to make House gains in the Golden State. — Republicans, meanwhile, are pleased that they got a gubernatorial candidate through to the fall election, and they also may have discovered a potent issue to use in November as well. — Other primary results across the country offered few surprises. — We have three ratings changes, which actually aren’t really related to Tuesday night’s primaries. Two Republican-held governorships, South Dakota and Vermont, swap ratings, and a Trump-district Democrat’s bid for statewide office in New York could put his district in play for Republicans. More details below. Table 1: Crystal Ball gubernatorial and House ratings changes What to make of California (so far) While final results will not be available for weeks, Democrats appear poised to advance candidates to the general election in all of their targeted races in California. Based on a seat-by-seat analysis of House targets, we have thought the Democrats needed to squeeze an additional five seats or so

  KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — This piece revisits a proposed path to a Democratic House majority we sketched out in early February. — Overall, the Democrats’ odds in the districts mentioned have largely but not universally gotten a little better. — The California primary on June 5 looms as the most important date in the battle for the House between now and the November election. — The Democrats’ odds of retaking the House majority remain about 50-50. — One ratings change this week: Rep. Don Bacon (R, NE-2) moves from Toss-up to Leans Republican following liberal nonprofit executive Kara Eastman’s (D) upset of former Rep. Brad Ashford (D, NE-2) in Tuesday night’s primary. More explanation is below. Table 1: Crystal Ball House ratings change A district-by-district path to the House majority In early February, we sketched out a potential path to a Democratic House majority. We called it the “Drive for 25,” in reference to the Democrats’ branding of their unsuccessful attempt to win the House in 2012. Three and a half months later, we thought we’d revisit this possible Democratic path to the majority and see how much has (or hasn’t) changed. Some of the overall indicators

KEY POINT FROM THIS ARTICLE — On average, Democrats led the generic ballot by 7.1 points over the past year. The monthly average ranged from 6.2 points in February 2018 to 10.1 points in December 2017. The December result was clearly an outlier, however, and may have led to a misinterpretation of more recent results as indicating a significant decline in the Democratic lead. A steady House generic ballot — On average, Democrats led the generic ballot by 7.1 points over the past year. The monthly average ranged from 6.2 points in February 2018 to 10.1 points in December 2017. The December result was clearly an outlier, however, and may have led to a misinterpretation of more recent results as indicating a significant decline in the Democratic lead. The House generic ballot, a national polling question that gauges voter intentions in the House vote, often fluctuates a lot from poll to poll. For instance, a poll that is highly rated by FiveThirtyEight’s pollster ratings, Monmouth University, fluctuated from a 15-point Democratic lead in December 2017 to a two-point Democratic lead in January back up to an eight-point Democratic lead most recently. That said, the overall average of these polls has

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — A surprising result in two special House elections last year, when Democrats ended up coming closer to winning an overlooked race in South Carolina than a nationally-watched contest in Georgia, showed an overreliance on past presidential election history to project House results. — When assessing the true Democratic targets on this year’s House map, a more holistic approach is required, including looking at past down-ballot performance and other factors. — Third-party voters, often overlooked, could be immensely important in determining the next House majority. Modeling House elections June 20, 2017 wasn’t like any other day, because it was an Election Day, hyped to a frenzy in the political world. Both national parties, and politicos everywhere, were on the edge of their seats waiting for results to come in. Polls would close soon in the extremely closely watched GA-6 special congressional election, as both sides hoped that each of their tens of millions of dollars invested in this race would not go to waste. Personally, I was nervous for another reason, as I had put on the line a new and untested House model that was giving me numbers outside of both mainstream thought or

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — The number of potentially vulnerable Republican seats is growing, and we’re adding an extra 10 GOP-held seats to the Likely Republican column this week. — All of these members remain solid favorites for reelection, but at the same time, many seem likely to face better-funded challengers than they are used to. — There are scenarios in which Democrats gain many more than the 23 net seats they need to win the House this year — perhaps double that or even more — but their overall odds to take control remain about 50-50. — Table 1 shows our 15 House ratings changes this week. Of those, 14 races move in a more Democratic direction, while Rep.-elect. Debbie Lesko (R, AZ-8) moves from Likely Republican to Safe Republican after her special election win on Tuesday night. Table 1: Crystal Ball House ratings changes The expanding House battleground Rep.-elect Debbie Lesko (R, AZ-8)’s victory in a special election Tuesday night fit into the pattern we’ve seen in other special elections this cycle. In a clearly Republican-leaning seat, Lesko won but ran significantly behind Donald Trump’s 2016 presidential performance. Trump won the district by 21 percentage points, whereas

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — House Speaker Paul Ryan’s (R, WI-1) retirement makes his now-open seat a Toss-up, although the seat definitely sits to the right of the national average. — Ryan’s departure adds to an already high number of open seats, and some Republicans could take his exit as a signal to leave the House as well. This is another bad sign for the Republicans’ prospects for holding the House. — We have two other ratings changes in open seats: KS-2 moves from Leans Republican to Toss-up, while the retirement of Rep. Dennis Ross (R, FL-15) brings his seat on to the board as Likely Republican. Table 1: Crystal Ball House ratings changes The political world was rocked Wednesday morning by House Speaker Paul Ryan’s (R, WI-1) decision to not seek reelection to his southeastern Wisconsin House seat. That said, Ryan’s departure really should not have come as that much of a surprise. Rumors had been swirling for months that Ryan was not long for the House, and we flagged this strong possibility for Crystal Ball readers more than a month ago when we first listed Ryan’s district on our list of competitive House seats, moving it from