Senate 2018: Two Rust Belt Ratings Move in the Democrats’ Direction
KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — The Crystal Ball has new ratings in the Pennsylvania and Wisconsin U.S. Senate contests, both in Democrats’ direction. In Pennsylvania, Sen. Bob Casey’s (D) reelection bid moves from Likely Democratic to Safe Democratic, while in Wisconsin, Sen. Tammy Baldwin’s (D) race goes from Leans Democratic to Likely Democratic. — Overall, we now rate 49 Senate seats as at least leaning toward the GOP, 44 as at least leaning toward the Democrats (and the two independents who caucus with them), and seven seats as Toss-ups. Republicans remain favorites to hold the Senate after the 2018 election in November, although there is a narrow path for Democrats to take the majority. — Finally, Democrats have a real chance at an upset in one of the Trumpiest districts in the country, WV-3. The Crystal Ball is shifting its rating there from Likely Republican to Leans Republican. Table 1: Crystal Ball Senate ratings changes Senator Old Rating New Rating Bob Casey (D-PA) Likely Democratic Safe Democratic Tammy Baldwin (D-WI) Leans Democratic Likely Democratic Table 2: Crystal Ball House ratings change Member/District Old Rating New Rating WV-3 Open (Jenkins, R) Likely Republican Leans Republican Many Rust Belt races look