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2018 Senate

Sabato's Crystal Ball

Senate 2018: Two Rust Belt Ratings Move in the Democrats’ Direction

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — The Crystal Ball has new ratings in the Pennsylvania and Wisconsin U.S. Senate contests, both in Democrats’ direction. In Pennsylvania, Sen. Bob Casey’s (D) reelection bid moves from Likely Democratic to Safe Democratic, while in Wisconsin, Sen. Tammy Baldwin’s (D) race goes from Leans Democratic to Likely Democratic. — Overall, we now rate 49 Senate seats as at least leaning toward the GOP, 44 as at least leaning toward the Democrats (and the two independents who caucus with them), and seven seats as Toss-ups. Republicans remain favorites to hold the Senate after the 2018 election in November, although there is a narrow path for Democrats to take the majority. — Finally, Democrats have a real chance at an upset in one of the Trumpiest districts in the country, WV-3. The Crystal Ball is shifting its rating there from Likely Republican to Leans Republican. Table 1: Crystal Ball Senate ratings changes Senator Old Rating New Rating Bob Casey (D-PA) Likely Democratic Safe Democratic Tammy Baldwin (D-WI) Leans Democratic Likely Democratic Table 2: Crystal Ball House ratings change Member/District Old Rating New Rating WV-3 Open (Jenkins, R) Likely Republican Leans Republican Many Rust Belt races look

Geoffrey Skelley

What Happened in the June 12 Primary

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE: — Maine became the first state in modern U.S. history to use ranked-choice voting (also known as instant-runoff voting) in a statewide election. But this was not the first time that a state used a form of ranked voting or preferential voting. In the early 1900s, a number of states tried out ranked-voting methods, including in statewide contests for offices such as U.S. Senate and governor. — In Virginia, Prince William County Board of Supervisors Chairman Corey Stewart (R) narrowly defeated state Del. Nick Freitas (R) 45%-43% to win the GOP nomination for U.S. Senate. Anti-Stewart forces rallied late to boost Freitas, but came up just short, much to the chagrin of many GOP leaders. Women won five of the six Democratic primaries for the U.S. House, including in all of the competitive House seats. — In other primaries, the most notable result was Rep. Mark Sanford (R, SC-1) losing his primary to state Rep. Katie Arrington (R). Arrington likely will be fine in November but we’re moving the district from Safe Republican to Likely Republican. Table 1: Crystal Ball House ratings change Member/District Old Rating New Rating SC-1 Open (Sanford, R) Safe Republican Likely

Geoffrey Skelley and Kyle Kondik

Virginia’s Busiest Federal Primary Day in Modern History

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — With nine contested U.S. House primaries and one U.S. Senate primary, June 12 will be the busiest federal primary day in Virginia’s modern history, surpassing the seven total contests held in 2012 (one Senate, six House). — In the Republican primary for Senate, Prince William County Board of Supervisors Chairman Corey Stewart (R) appears to be the ostensible favorite, largely due to his unexpectedly strong performance in last year’s GOP gubernatorial primary, where he finished a close second to Ed Gillespie (R). However, there has been little polling and it’s possible that state Del. Nick Freitas (R) could surprise Stewart. — Six Democrats are running for the right to face Rep. Barbara Comstock (R, VA-10), one of the most endangered Republican House incumbents in the country. Four of the Democrats seem to have at least some chance of winning the nomination. Comstock is a prodigious fundraiser and has a history of outpacing the partisan lean of districts she has represented, but the district’s Democratic shifts in 2016 and 2017 show why she is one of the Democrats’ foremost targets in 2018. — Democratic primaries in VA-2 and VA-7 will determine the nominees to face

Geoffrey Skelley

A Post-Memorial Day Status Report

KEY POINTS IN THIS ARTICLE — Both Democrats and Republicans have about equal odds of winning the House majority. — Republicans remain clearly favored in the battle for Senate control. — Democrats should start 2019 with at least a few more net governorships than they hold now. Checking in on 2018’s big picture In a bygone political era, the symbolic end of summer — Labor Day — denoted the unofficial start of the campaign season. In our current era, one might be tempted to say that the symbolic start of summer — Memorial Day — now represents the campaign season kickoff, though American politics is in a state of perpetual campaigning. As soon as one campaign concludes with an election, candidates for the next election start to emerge. That will be the case after this November’s election, when one would expect the battle for the Democratic presidential nomination to begin in earnest. Still, the effective start of summer offers an opportunity to assess where the races for the House, Senate, and governorships stand. So we thought we’d offer brief updates on the state of play. The race for the House Map 1: Crystal Ball House ratings Source: Map is reprinted

Kyle Kondik

Mad As Hell: How Anger Diminishes Trust in Government

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — Over the past 60 years, trust in government has declined precipitously. Whereas high levels of trust in the national government were typical during the Eisenhower Administration, by 2016 only a fifth of Americans said they trusted the government “always” or “most of the time.” — Using a survey experiment and utilizing a technique known as “emotional recall,” I find that individuals asked to write about a time they were very angry or to write about a time they were very angry about politics were more likely to agree that the national government is unresponsive to the concerns and interests of the public. Merely asking individuals to recall a time they had thought about politics had no effect on lowering trust in government. These results indicate that anger does play a causal role in lowering citizens’ trust in the government. — A regression analysis of respondents’ use of angry words as well as positive and negative emotional words revealed that those who were primed to exhibit higher levels of apolitical anger offered the most negative views of the national government. That is, apolitical issues, rather than political issues, elicited the most anger. This suggests that

Steven Webster

Ratings Changes: Senate, Governor, House

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — Republican primary voters avoided a self-inflicted wound in West Virginia when disgraced coal baron Don Blankenship (R) finished third in the GOP Senate primary. — Much else went as expected Tuesday night. — Five ratings changes this week affect races for Senate, governor, and House, but most importantly broaden the Senate playing field. Table 1: Crystal Ball ratings changes The Senate Tuesday night’s marquee primary came in West Virginia, where rumors based on internal polls suggested that Don Blankenship (R), a disgraced former coal company executive who had recently served jail time for ignoring federal mine safety laws in connection with a mining disaster that killed 29 in 2010, was poised to win the Republican Senate nomination in the Mountain State. Blankenship ended up finishing in third. The anti-Blankenship bubble may have been a way for national Republicans to cajole President Donald Trump into weighing in against Blankenship, which he did on Monday. As it turned out, Blankenship probably was never as serious a contender for the nomination as he might have seemed. In any event, Republican primary voters in West Virginia avoided making a silly decision Tuesday. They ultimately picked state Attorney General

Kyle Kondik and Geoffrey Skelley

Ohio’s Primary: The Heart of It All

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — The fissures emerging in both parties are evident in Ohio as the state holds its primary next week on May 8. — The likeliest matchup in the state’s open-seat gubernatorial race is a rematch of 2010’s battle for state attorney general, as former AG Richard Cordray (D)[1] and current AG Mike DeWine (R) remain the favorites to win their respective party nominations. But upsets are possible on either side. — Democrats may have the wind at their backs even in Ohio this fall, a state that moved significantly to the right in 2016. But if Democrats can’t win in 2018 in Ohio, when can they? COLUMBUS, OH — It may be that Ohio, the great bellwether state, is moving away from the nation’s center in presidential elections. For the first time in more than a half century, the state’s popular vote outcome was not close to the national result in a presidential election: Donald Trump won the state in 2016 by eight points while losing nationally by two, giving the Buckeye State a significant Republican lean after decades of exhibiting only a slight such lean. Assuming Trump is on the ballot in 2020, he

Kyle Kondik

California Dreamin’: Carving the Golden State into Thirds

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — The “Cal 3” initiative is the latest in a long line of proposals to divide California into multiple states. This plan aims to carve up the Golden State into three new states. — While the proposal has little chance of success, hypothetically the fragmentation of California would have notable political consequences for the Electoral College and the U.S. Senate. Splitting California into thirds would put about one-third of the state’s electoral votes in play for the GOP, while the additional Senate seats might benefit the Democrats. Carving up California How many Californias should there be? In 2013, venture capitalist Tim Draper proposed a measure to create six different states out of the nation’s most-populous state. After the “Six Californias” plan failed to make the ballot, Draper has returned with a new proposal. His latest cartographic contortion aims to break the Golden State into three not-so creatively named states: California, Northern California, and Southern California. Unlike Draper’s previous initiative, his “Cal 3” plan may have enough signatures to make the November ballot, offering Californians an opportunity to vote to fracture their state. Four years ago, I wrote a fun what-if article for the Crystal Ball

Geoffrey Skelley

Notes on the State of Politics

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — The partisan structure of the races for governorships and Senate seats are now exact mirror opposites. — Sen. Angus King (I-ME) and Gov. Tom Wolf (D-PA) get ratings upgrades. — Rep. Elizabeth Esty’s (D, CT-5) retirement gives Republicans an upset opportunity and is another example of how #MeToo is contributing to a high number of open House seats this cycle. Table 1: Crystal Ball Senate and gubernatorial ratings changes Mirror images of partisan vulnerability in Senate and gubernatorial races With Mississippi now hosting two Senate races this year, 2018’s Senate and gubernatorial races have achieved something of a mirror-image symmetry. On the Senate front, Democrats are defending 26 seats (including two independents who caucus with Democrats from Maine and Vermont) while the Republicans, even with the addition of a special election in Mississippi, are still only defending nine. In the gubernatorial races, it is the Republicans defending 26 seats while the Democrats are defending just nine. There is one other governorship on the ballot not included here — Alaska — but an independent, Bill Walker, is seeking reelection. He defeated a Republican incumbent in 2014 and has a Democratic running mate, but Walker himself

Kyle Kondik and Geoffrey Skelley

Donald Trump’s Short Congressional Coattails

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — Although Donald Trump is remaking the Republican Party in his image, he had among the shortest coattails of any presidential winner going back to Dwight Eisenhower. In 2016, Trump ran ahead of just 24 of 241 Republican House winners and only five of 22 Republican Senate winners. — While more Republican House members are from the South than any other region, Trump’s coattails were longest in the Midwest, where he ran ahead of nine Republican House winners. Trump ran ahead of eight victorious GOP House candidates in the South, and a combined total of seven in the two Democratic bailiwicks, the Northeast and the West. — The length of presidential coattails over the years has been closely related to the winner’s share of the popular vote. Landslide victories (say, with 55% or more) tend to produce much longer coattails than those of “minority” winners such as Trump. But in the eight presidential elections from 1988 to 2016, there has been nary a landslide and the length of presidential coattails has shrunk. Measuring Donald Trump’s coattails It is one of the ironies of modern American politics that congressional Republicans have bound themselves virtually en masse

Rhodes Cook

The Low Success Rate of Independent and Third-Party Candidates in Senate Elections

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — Missouri independent candidate Craig O’Dear is running for U.S. Senate in 2018 but faces long odds of winning. — Independent and third-party candidates tend to do poorly in most partisan elections, but they have a particularly poor track record in Senate contests. Only 11 candidates in 14 elections have ever won at least 35% of the vote while facing a Democrat and a Republican. — Many successful independent and minor-party candidates had prior electoral relationships with a major party. Many also benefited from being part of rare, strong third-party forces, such as the Farmer-Labor Party, the Progressive Party, and the Nonpartisan League. The history of independent and third-party Senate bids On Feb. 15, Kansas City lawyer Craig O’Dear officially announced his candidacy for Missouri’s U.S. Senate seat, currently held by Sen. Claire McCaskill (D). Running as an independent, O’Dear’s 2018 hopes rest on winning a plurality against McCaskill and the likely GOP nominee, state Attorney General Josh Hawley. In fact, the Kansas City Star reported that O’Dear “thinks he can win if he captures 35% to 40% of the vote in a three-way race.” The Crystal Ball will be blunt: Accomplishing such a feat

Geoffrey Skelley

Senate 2018: Republicans Still Have Plenty of Targets

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — Republicans have better than 50-50 odds to hold control of the U.S. Senate even in the event of a Democratic wave in November. — The reason is the map: Including the two independents who caucus with them, the Democrats are defending 26 of the 34 seats being contested this fall, which is the most lopsided Senate map any party has faced in a midterm since 1938. Five of the Democratic seats are in states that Donald Trump won in landslides, and another five are in states he won. — Because the map is so good for Republicans, it is possible they will add to their majority even if the electoral environment otherwise breaks against them in other elections, such as those for the U.S. House of Representatives. — That said, the Democrats do have a path to a Senate majority, albeit slim. — Our current outlook is for a continuing Republican majority but little net change in what is already a closely divided Senate. — We have two ratings changes this week, both upgrades for Democrats. Appointed Sen. Tina Smith (D-MN) moves from Leans Democratic to Likely Democratic as she seeks election to the

Kyle Kondik and Geoffrey Skelley

Mixed Signals: Analyzing Elections since Trump Won the Presidency

KEY POINTS IN THIS ARTICLE: — In 2013 elections, Democratic candidates ran behind Barack Obama’s 2012 two-party vote percentage by an average of 5.9 percentage points. A great Republican cycle in 2014 followed. In elections since December 2016, Republican candidates have run an average of 2.6 points behind Donald Trump’s 2016 two-party vote share, a notably smaller figure that could augur poorly for Democrats in 2018. This includes both special and regular elections. — However, since Trump’s election, in contests with no incumbent, the average Republican candidate has run an average of 5.1 points behind Trump in the two-party vote. Considering the sizable number of Republican retirements in the U.S. House and in state legislative elections, GOP-held open seats will be a pivotal part of 2018 arithmetic. — Because of Trump’s gains in the Rust Belt, the Midwest will be one major focus of the 2018 election cycle. The Midwest is easily the best region for Democrats in elections during the Trump era. On average, Democrats have performed 10.2 points better than Clinton in the two-party vote in that census region, while only doing slightly better in the Northeast (2.8 points) and South (1.5 points), and worse out West (-1.8

Geoffrey Skelley

For New Minnesota Sen. Tina Smith, a lesser form of incumbency

On Tuesday, now-former Sen. Al Franken (D-MN) officially resigned from the U.S. Senate following allegations of inappropriate behavior toward women. As we discussed in our last newsletter for 2017, Franken’s resignation means that Minnesota will hold a special election for Senate this coming November, which will take place at the same time as the regular election for the state’s other Senate seat (a “double-barrel” election). Franken’s exit paved the way for Gov. Mark Dayton (D) to officially appoint now-Sen. Tina Smith (D), previously Minnesota’s lieutenant governor. This makes Smith the 195th appointed senator since the ratification of the 17th Amendment in April 1913 initiated the era of popular elections for Senate. Smith intends to run in the special election in November 2018 to complete the remainder of Franken’s term in office, with the next regular election for the seat scheduled for 2020. Should she run as expected, Smith will be 126th appointed incumbent to seek election while in the Senate. Of those 125 previous appointed Senate incumbents, 117 sought election for a full or partial term that went beyond the end of the current Congress.[1] Senate incumbents and party nominations Unsurprisingly, appointed incumbents have a worse track record than elected

Geoffrey Skelley

The Minnesota Twins: A Complete History of Double-Barrel Senate Elections

The Crystal Ball will be away next week. We’ll be back on Thursday, Jan. 4. We wish you and your family Merry Christmas and Happy Holidays. — The Editors Sen. Al Franken’s (D) impending resignation due to sexual harassment allegations will create a vacancy in Minnesota’s Class II Senate seat, precipitating a special election in the North Star State next November. Gov. Mark Dayton (D) announced last week that he would name Lt. Gov. Tina Smith (D) to the post, and Smith said that she intends to run in the 2018 special election for the remainder of Franken’s term (the seat is due to be regularly contested in 2020). Because Franken did not immediately resign, there was some speculation that he might reconsider leaving office — among others, Sen. Joe Manchin (D-WV) wants Franken to remain in the Senate — but his spokesman said on Wednesday that Franken intends to resign on Jan. 2, 2018, and that Smith will be sworn into office on Jan. 3. This article is based on the assumption that Franken will indeed resign. The special election for Franken’s seat is notable not only because it puts a potentially competitive seat on the 2018 map but

Geoffrey Skelley