2020 House

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — President Trump recently indicated that he wants the 2020 census reapportionment of House seats to exclude undocumented immigrants from the calculation. — If undocumented immigrants are excluded, the 2020 reapportionment calculation will change, including changing the number of House seats allocated to the two largest states, California and Texas. — There are significant legal and logistical hurdles that probably will prevent undocumented immigrants from being excluded from congressional reapportionment calculations. Introduction On July 21, 2020, President Donald Trump addressed a memorandum to the U.S. Department of Commerce directing the Census Bureau to report to him, in addition to the 2020 Census population counts by state, the estimated numbers of undocumented immigrants by state. These data would be included in his report to the Congress on apportioning the U.S. House of Representatives for the 2022 elections. The New York Times reported that Trump’s “action directly conflicts with the traditional consensus interpretation of the Constitution and will almost surely be challenged in court, potentially delaying its effect if not blocking its enactment altogether.” Nevertheless, we explore here the implications of the president’s directive with respect to the 2020 apportionment of the U.S. House if undocumented immigrants

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — As five sitting members of the House have already lost primaries — and some states have yet to vote — 2020 could see the most primary losers in a non-redistricting cycle since 1980. — The circumstances of some of this year’s primary losers are in some ways similar to past troubles that have undone incumbents in primaries. — Both parties have seen members lose primaries this cycle, but the Republicans’ electoral prospects have, on the whole, been more adversely affected. — There are a handful of other House incumbents who may be vulnerable as the primary season picks up again next week. Another 1980 parallel Back in April, we discussed some similarities between the 1980 election and this one. Down the ballot, there may be another connection between this year and the election four decades ago: An unusually high number of House incumbents may lose primaries, at least for a non-redistricting year. Usually, at the congressional level, turnover is highest in election years following redistricting, or in other words, years that end in “2” (1992, 2002, 2012, etc.). Between changes in apportionment — states losing or gaining seats — and partisan considerations, members of

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — Recently-released fundraising reports indicate a mismatch between the best-funded GOP candidates and the districts in which they are competing. — At this point, Democrats are more likely to net House seats than Republicans, although we’re still not expecting much net change overall. — There are eight rating changes this week: seven in favor of Democrats, one in favor of Republicans. Table 1: House rating changes Member/District Old Rating New Rating French Hill (R, AR-2) Likely Republican Leans Republican IA-2 Open (Loebsack, D) Toss-up Leans Democratic Richard Hudson (R, NC-8) Likely Republican Leans Republican Xochitl Torres Small (D, NM-2) Toss-up Leans Democratic Mike Turner (R, OH-10) Safe Republican Likely Republican Joe Wilson (R, SC-2) Safe Republican Likely Republican Chip Roy (R, TX-21) Leans Republican Toss-up Ron Kind (D, WI-3) Safe Democratic Likely Democratic Big GOP fundraisers not matched to best district targets Recently-finalized House fundraising reports covering April through June reinforced an emerging theme of this year’s House elections: The Republicans have a number of well-funded challengers, but those challengers are not necessarily matched to the seats that the GOP has the best chances of winning. Some of the top GOP fundraisers, for instance, included

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — Joe Biden’s currently strong lead in the presidential race is being felt in the suburbs, which if it lasts could imperil Republicans in some of their formerly dark red turf. — Texas merits special attention, where as many as 10 Republican-held House seats could become vulnerable if Trump were to lose the state. — We have 11 House rating changes, 10 of which benefit Democrats. — Democrats remain favored to retain their House majority. Table 1: Crystal Ball House rating changes Member/District Old Rating New Rating David Schweikert (R, AZ-6) Likely Republican Leans Republican Katie Porter (D, CA-45) Likely Democratic Safe Democratic CO-3 Open (Tipton, R) Likely Republican Leans Republican IN-5 Open (Brooks, R) Leans Republican Toss-up Antonio Delgado (D, NY-19) Leans Democratic Likely Democratic Peter DeFazio (D, OR-4) Safe Democratic Likely Democratic Brian Fitzpatrick (R, PA-1) Likely Republican Leans Republican Dan Crenshaw (R, TX-2) Safe Republican Likely Republican Van Taylor (R, TX-3) Safe Republican Likely Republican Roger Williams (R, TX-25) Safe Republican Likely Republican Ron Wright (R, TX-6) Safe Republican Likely Republican Table 2: Crystal Ball House ratings Note: *Represents members who have changed parties. Rep. Jeff Van Drew (R, NJ-2) switched from

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — Rep. Denver Riggleman (R, VA-5) lost a bizarre, drive-through convention held over the weekend. — We moved the race from Likely Republican to Leans Republican as a result. Table 1: House ratings change Member/District Old Rating New Rating VA-5 Open (Riggleman, R) Likely Republican Leans Republican Good nomination raises questions about GOP in VA-5 In Virginia’s 5th Congressional District this weekend — where the Center for Politics is located — Republicans voted at a Saturday convention to oust first-term Rep. Denver Riggleman (R, VA-5). In a result that was announced early Sunday morning, the convention voted 58%-42% to nominate Bob Good, a former local official in Campbell County who had previously worked at the evangelical Liberty University. A libertarian-leaning Republican, Riggleman drew the ire of social conservatives when he officiated a gay wedding last year. Good ran to the right, telling activists, “…we don’t have to settle for purple. We can be bright red.” Looking at the composition of the district, Good may have a point. Though VA-5 includes the blue Charlottesville area, it takes in much of Southside Virginia. Southside, which borders North Carolina, has trended red recently, and has traditionally favored conservative

Dear Readers: UVA Center for Politics Director Larry J. Sabato interviewed Time national political correspondent Molly Ball about her new book, Pelosi, an intimate, fresh perspective on the most powerful woman in American political history. You can watch their conversation at at: https://livestream.com/tavco/mollyball. In an excerpt from the book below, Ball describes how Pelosi first got elected to Congress by narrowly winning election to a San Francisco-based House seat. — The Editors In January 1987, when Representative Sala Burton was dying of colon cancer, she called her friend Nancy Pelosi. Her time was short, she said, and when she died, she wanted Pelosi to run for her seat representing San Francisco in Congress. “Come on,” Pelosi told her friend, “you’ll get better.” “You must promise me you will run,” Sala insisted. “It’s the only thing that will make me feel better.” Pelosi was a 47-year-old mother of five and political volunteer who’d served as chair of the California Democratic Party and helped bring the 1984 Democratic convention to San Francisco. Her father had been a congressman and mayor of Baltimore, but she’d always resisted entreaties to run for office herself. When Sala called, four of Pelosi’s five children had left

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — The Democratic lead in House generic ballot polling has been very consistent over the course of Donald Trump’s presidency. — Democrats also have a significant money edge in the lion’s share of their most vulnerable districts. Money is not everything, but it can help. — We have seven House rating changes, four in favor of Republicans and three in favor of Democrats. — Put it all together, and Democrats remain favored to hold their House majority. Table 1: House rating changes Member/District Old Rating New Rating Angie Craig (D, MN-2) Leans Democratic Likely Democratic Dan Bishop (R, NC-9) Likely Republican Safe Republican Don Bacon (R, NE-2) Toss-up Leans Republican Andy Kim (D, NJ-3) Toss-up Leans Democratic Brian Fitzpatrick (R, PA-1) Leans Republican Likely Republican John Carter (R, TX-31) Leans Republican Likely Republican Ron Kind (D, WI-3) Likely Democratic Safe Democratic The very stable generic ballot President Trump’s approval rating is not the only big-picture national indicator that has not changed much over the course of his presidency. The national House generic ballot has also been very consistent for the three-plus years he’s been in the White House. Democrats have led almost every single one

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — Democrats netted seven House seats in California in 2018, winning 46 of the megastate’s 53 seats. — The state’s top-two primary election system can provide clues for the fall. With results almost entirely complete, none of the newly-elected Democrats appear to be in serious trouble, although a few are definitely vulnerable. — A special election in CA-25 in May might provide Republicans with their best opportunity to claw back some of their lost California turf. We’re moving our rating there from Leans Democratic to Toss-up. — We also are upgrading a couple of the few remaining GOP-held seats in California to Safe Republican. Table 1: Crystal Ball House rating changes Member/District Old Rating New Rating Tom McClintock (R, CA-4) Likely Republican Safe Republican Devin Nunes (R, CA-22) Likely Republican Safe Republican CA-25 Special (Hill, D) Leans Democratic Toss-up The GOP tries to regain lost ground in California Nowhere did the Democrats pick up more seats in 2018 than in California. They netted seven seats as part of their 40-seat net gain in the midterm, which gave them an incredible 46-7 edge statewide. Democrats now hold 87% of the House seats in California despite winning