2020 House

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — As we head into a once-a-decade redistricting cycle, we analyzed which states have one party that is currently overperforming in its House delegation compared to that party’s share of the 2020 presidential vote. — Overall, the GOP has notched notable overperformances in 19 medium-to-large-sized states, compared to 11 for the Democrats. However, the total number of excess seats for each party from these states is roughly in balance, though Republicans have a slight edge: 32 for the GOP, 28 for the Democrats. — The three biggest sources of excess seats for the GOP today — Texas, Ohio, and Florida — could provide additional excess seats in the coming redistricting round, given the fact that each state has unified Republican control of state government. The Democrats’ options for squeezing out additional seats are more limited because many of their biggest sources of excess seats have a commission system for redistricting. Presidential voting vs. House representation As the political world heads into a frenzied, once-every-decade redistricting process, it seemed like a good time to look at which states currently bless one party with a disproportionate share of U.S. House seats — and whether, nationally, one party has

Dear Readers: Next month, the Center for Politics will be releasing its biennial post-election book, A Return to Normalcy: The 2020 Election That (Almost) Broke America. For this volume, several top journalists, academics, and analysts partnered with the Center for Politics’ team to analyze last year’s historic election. Next Thursday, Crystal Ball Managing Editor Kyle Kondik will host a panel featuring three writers who contributed to the book. Speakers will include: — Theodore Johnson, Senior Fellow, Brennan Center for Justice — Diana Owen, Professor of Political Science, Georgetown University — Sean Trende, Senior Election Analyst, RealClearPolitics This virtual event will begin on March 25 at 6:30 p.m. Registration is free and can be found at this link. The book is available for pre-order through UVA Bookstores. — The Editors KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — Though new congressional lines are typically put into effect for election years ending in “-2”, four states adopted new maps at later points during this last decade. — In North Carolina, Florida, Virginia, and Pennsylvania, Republican-friendly maps were thrown out mid-decade in favor of plans that were more amenable to Democrats. — If those pro-Republican maps were still in place, there’s a good chance that House Republicans would be

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — With the race for NY-22 settled, 2020’s House elections may finally be fully in the rearview mirror, though IA-2’s results will be reviewed by Congress. — Before this week, we rated two special elections in Louisiana as safe for either party; with a new vacancy in TX-6, we see an imminent special election there as Likely Republican. — Two more districts, NM-1 and OH-11, seem likely to host special elections soon, as their incumbents have been designated for positions in the Biden administration. — Sen. Richard Shelby’s (R-AL) retirement doesn’t impact our Safe Republican rating for the Alabama Senate race. 2020’s last House races 2020’s final House races may be starting to wind down — more than three months after Election Day. This week started with two House elections that were, to some degree or another, unsettled. While one of those has concluded, the other is moving into what could be its final phase. In Upstate New York, former Rep. Claudia Tenney (R, NY-22) will be heading back to Congress. After a protracted court fight, she’s won a rematch with Rep. Anthony Brindisi (D, NY-22) by 109 votes. Tenney has been a fixture in

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — 16 members of the House hold districts that voted for the other party’s presidential nominee in 2020. — Many Biden-district Republicans are from racially diverse areas, and they often came out on the winning end of rematches. — Democrats held several Trump seats in both blue collar and suburban areas. — Overall, the trend of ticket-splitting is on the decline — just a decade ago, it was common to see dozens of crossover districts. Dwindling — but decisive — crossover districts In a year where a historic presidential race dominated headlines, one of the biggest surprises of the 2020 election cycle was the House. Democrats, who controlled the chamber, were widely expected to gain seats. Instead, Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D, CA-12) lost several members of her caucus and came perilously close to losing her majority altogether. Across the board, Republicans ran better than expected in key districts, even flipping some that now-President Biden carried. By the same token, Democrats owe their narrow majority to a handful of members who held on in seats that Donald Trump carried. So these “crossover districts” — seats that voted for one party’s presidential nominee but elected a House

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — For the entire period from 1972 to 2020 there is little partisan bias in the seat/vote relationship, but this overall pattern obscures substantial bias from decade to decade. — In the 1970s and 1980s there was a substantial bias favoring the Democrats; in the 1990s the relationship was a very small bias favoring the Democrats; in the 2000s and 2010s there was a noticeable bias favoring the Republicans. — The 2020 election had a proportional outcome, as the Democratic candidates received 51% of the votes and 51% of the seats. This reduction in the Republican bias in 2020 may be the result in part of mid-decade redistricting in several states favoring the Democrats. Votes received vs. seats won in the House Redistricting for the U.S. House of Representatives is not a unified process as is the case for most national legislatures, but the result of the cumulative actions in the states that have more than one representative. Nevertheless, it is useful to look at the entire House to see how the decisions in the states combine to form a fair or biased playing field for the parties. One commonly used method for analyzing the

Dear Readers: Join us Thursday at 2 p.m. eastern for our latest episode of Sabato’s Crystal Ball: America Votes. We’ll be reacting to the vice presidential debate and discussing the latest in the presidential race as Election Day draws closer. If you have questions you would like us to address during the webinar about the debate, specific races, or other developments in the campaign, just email us at [email protected]. You can watch live at our YouTube channel (UVACFP), as well as at this direct YouTube link. Additionally, an audio-only podcast version of the webinar is now available at Apple Podcasts, Spotify, and other podcast providers. Just search “Sabato’s Crystal Ball” to find it. Today, we’re pleased to feature guest columnists Dudley L. Poston Jr. and D. Nicole Farris, who ponder the possible political and reapportionment impacts of what has become a rallying cry for some Democrats: statehood for Washington, D.C. and/or Puerto Rico. — The Editors KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — In the upcoming 2020 elections, if Joe Biden defeats Donald Trump, and if the Democrats win control of the Senate and maintain control of the U.S. House, statehood for the District of Columbia and for Puerto Rico is