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2020 House

Sabato's Crystal Ball

Danger Signs Abound for Sanders in Michigan — and Elsewhere

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — Ahead of several delegate-rich contests this month, both national and state-level polls suggest that Joe Biden is solidifying his lead over Bernie Sanders. — Though a handful of states will be voting tomorrow, Michigan, given its significance in the 2016 primary, will be a focal point of the night — and is likely a must-win state for Sanders. — But some of Sanders’ great showings outside of Detroit from 2016 seem unlikely to repeat themselves this time. — In Montana’s Senate race, Democrats now have their best-possible recruit, in Gov. Steve Bullock. We still see Sen. Steve Daines (R-MT) as a favorite but are moving this race from Likely Republican to Leans Republican. Table 1: Crystal Ball Senate rating change Senator Old Rating New Rating Steve Daines (R-MT) Likely Republican Leans Republican Primary update: Sanders needs another Michigan miracle, and more The wave that Joe Biden rode to a surprisingly strong Super Tuesday is showing no signs of abating. Just to put in perspective what a strong position Biden now finds himself in, CNN and Quinnipiac University released fresh national polling today finding Biden up 16 and 19 points, respectively, on Bernie Sanders. As

Kyle Kondik and J. Miles Coleman

Texas: Welcome to the Rodeo

Dear Readers: We’re pleased to welcome two young analysts for their Crystal Ball debuts today as we publish a bonus issue that provides an additional preview of Super Tuesday (we also looked at the battlefield yesterday). First, Katherine Clement breaks down the Texas primary, and then Niles Francis assesses two major down-ballot races today: the Alabama Senate primary and the first round of voting for the CA-25 House special election. Obviously, Super Tuesday is in a good deal of flux following the exits of Amy Klobuchar and Pete Buttigieg from the race and their last-minute endorsements of Joe Biden. We’ll be back following Super Tuesday to survey what happened and to look ahead to the crucial upcoming contests the next two Tuesdays. — The Editors KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — Texas, a traditionally Republican state that is becoming more competitive, is a vital prize on Super Tuesday. — While much of the vote has been cast, much remains, and the narrowed field adds further uncertainty to an already-close race. — The big urban areas may tell the tale. — Down the ballot, the Democratic Senate field lacks Beto O’Rourke’s sizzle as a runoff looms. — Two veteran House incumbents

Katherine Clement

Super Tuesday Down the Ballot: AL-SEN & CA-25

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — In Alabama, the three-way Republican primary for Senate will be one of Super Tuesday’s marquee primaries; former Attorney General Jeff Sessions and former Auburn football coach Tommy Tuberville are polling competitively, though Rep Bradley Byrne (R, AL-1) is also a serious candidate. — Regardless of the primary outcome, Sen. Doug Jones (D-AL) faces an uphill reelection race — aside from the other Republicans, his flawed 2017 opponent, Roy Moore (R), is running again, but is unlikely to get the nomination. — We continue to see the special election in the Los Angeles-area CA-25 as Leans Democratic. It’s unlikely a single candidate wins outright on Tuesday, so a runoff will likely ensure on May 12. Trump Looms Large in Alabama GOP Senate Primary Sen. Doug Jones (D-AL), who shocked the nation by defeating beleaguered Republican Roy Moore in a 2017 special election, hopes to defy the odds once again by winning a full six-year term in deep red Alabama. Jones is no newbie in Washington. He used to work as a staff counsel for Sen. Howell Heflin (D-AL), whose Senate seat he now occupies. Working as a a federal prosecutor in the 1990s, Jones’ two

Niles Francis

Trump Holds Key to Republican House Chances

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — Democrats remain favored to hold the House, but it’s not hard to imagine what the GOP’s path to the majority would be. — Trump is crucial to that path: A highly-nationalized presidential election that devastates the roster of Democrats in Trump-won and marginal Clinton-won House seats would represent the best possible Republican outcome. — We have 16 ratings changes this week; 11 benefit the Republicans, although there is good news for Democrats as well. Table 1: Crystal Ball House ratings changes Member/District Old Rating New Rating Josh Harder (D, CA-10) Leans Democratic Likely Democratic Mario Diaz-Balart (R, FL-25) Likely Republican Safe Republican Brian Mast (R, FL-18) Likely Republican Safe Republican Mike Bost (R, IL-12) Likely Republican Safe Republican Tim Walberg (R, MI-7) Likely Republican Safe Republican Jim Hagedorn (R, MN-1) Likely Republican Leans Republican Pete Stauber (R, MN-8) Likely Republican Safe Republican Antonio Delgado (D, NY-19) Toss-up Leans Democratic Troy Balderson (R, OH-12) Leans Republican Likely Republican Dave Joyce (R, OH-14) Likely Republican Safe Republican Brian Fitzpatrick (R, PA-1) Toss-up Leans Republican Mike Kelly (R, PA-16) Likely Republican Safe Republican Lizzie Fletcher (D, TX-7) Likely Democratic Leans Democratic Ben McAdams (D, UT-4) Toss-up Leans

Kyle Kondik

Trump Not Immune to the Usual Down-Ballot Presidential Penalty

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — After just three years in the White House, Donald Trump is seeing a significant erosion of down-ballot seats held by his party. — This erosion puts Trump in good company — at least since World War II, presidents typically experience at least some erosion across his party’s numbers of U.S. Senate, U.S. House, gubernatorial, and state legislative seats. — The best news for Trump and Republicans is that they have held their own in the category of races that is arguably most politically important: the Senate. The down-ballot White House blues On Monday, President Donald Trump began his fourth year in office. His presidency has been unique in many ways, but he’s been like other presidents in at least one respect: His party has generally lost ground down the ballot since he took office. In recent decades, presidents have typically seen an erosion of their party’s seats in the U.S. Senate, U.S. House, the governorships, and the state legislatures. In fact, to one degree or another, every post-World War II two-term president has bled seats in these categories, and so have the two-term, same-party combinations of John F. Kennedy-Lyndon B. Johnson and Richard Nixon-Gerald

Louis Jacobson

In the South, Congressional Black Caucus Members Win Uncommon Crossover

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — Across the South, some members of the Congressional Black Caucus (CBC) overperform the presidential lean of their districts. — Incumbents like G.K. Butterfield (D, NC-1), Sanford Bishop (D, GA-2), and Jim Clyburn (D, SC-6) show that incumbents who fit their districts can build durable local brands. — Looking to November, to turn out black voters in the South — and beyond — national Democrats can learn from CBC members. The subtle overperformance of some black southern Democrats In 2008, a key ingredient to then-Sen. Barack Obama’s historic victory was his unprecedented support from African Americans. Though the African-American community has long been a cornerstone of the Democratic Party’s coalition, Obama inspired an unseen level of enthusiasm among minority voters. That enthusiasm, combined with the national political environment of that year, allowed him to carry previously Republican states like North Carolina and Virginia while cutting the Republican margin in other states like Georgia, which was last contested in 1996. President Obama faced a closer race in 2012. While he lost ground across much of the country, he maintained his steadfast support among black voters. Despite his reduced margin nationwide, Obama improved his showing in heavily

Drew Savicki

Ratings Changes: Senate, House, and Governor

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — The Kansas Senate race is getting a lot of national buzz, but we still see the GOP as clearly favored to hold the seat. — The chances of Republicans springing Senate upsets in New Hampshire and Virginia appear to be growing dimmer. — Gov. Gavin Newsom’s (D-CA) decision not to hold a special election for CA-50 makes it likelier for Republicans to hold the seat. — Vermont is a sleeper Democratic gubernatorial target. Table 1: Senate ratings changes Senator Old Rating New Rating Jeanne Shaheen (D-NH) Leans Democratic Likely Democratic Mark Warner (D-VA) Likely Democratic Safe Democratic Table 2: Governor ratings change Governor Old Rating New Rating Phil Scott (R-VT) Likely Republican Leans Republican Table 3: House ratings change Member/District Old Rating New Rating CA-50 Vacant (Hunter, R) Likely Republican Safe Republican Senate: A word of caution on Kansas We have two ratings changes this week, upgrading the odds of Democratic incumbents in New Hampshire and Virginia. But perhaps the more interesting item to discuss is a rating that we’re not changing, in Kansas. Despite the threat to Republican fortunes there presented by 2018 gubernatorial nominee Kris Kobach (R), we’re sticking with a Likely

Kyle Kondik and J. Miles Coleman

Republican Edge in Electoral College Tie Endures

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — If no candidate gets to 270 Electoral College votes, the U.S. House of Representatives would pick the next president. — The House has not had to pick a president in nearly two centuries. In the event of such a tiebreaking vote, each state’s U.S. House delegation would get to cast a single vote. The eventual president would need to win a majority of the 50 state delegations. — Republicans control 26 delegations and Democrats control 23, with one tie (Pennsylvania). That is a slight improvement for Democrats from this time last year, although that improvement is based on a fluke and may not endure. — The GOP remains favored to control a majority of House delegations following this November’s House election. Why a 269-269 tie would likely go to the GOP The possibility that the Electoral College could split 269-269 is remote, but possible. As my colleague J. Miles Coleman notes this week, there are scenarios under which the single electoral votes produced by Maine and Nebraska’s unique congressional district electoral vote allocation systems could tip the election one way or the other, or even produce a tie. One of these tie vote scenarios,

Kyle Kondik

2019: The Year of Stability

Dear Readers: The Crystal Ball will be away for the holidays next week. Our next issue will come out on Thursday, Jan. 2. We wish all of our readers Happy Holidays. — The Editors KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — Impeachment is an unusual occurrence marked by usual partisanship. It is hard to argue that it has dramatically altered perceptions of the president. — Overall, our outlook for the races for president and for Congress are pretty similar to what they were at the start of the year. Impeachment, and a year in review The House of Representatives made history Wednesday, impeaching a president for just the third time. It made for an occasion that was both momentous and monotonous. Momentous in that Donald J. Trump appears likely to be the first impeached president who will nonetheless appear on general election ballots after that happened, creating a truly unprecedented American political situation, and monotonous in that a predictable, almost entirely party-line vote sets up a Senate trial where the result (acquittal) seems preordained. In other words, the specific circumstances of impeachment and what led to it are remarkable, but the reaction by the nation’s political actors is routine. This is,

Kyle Kondik

Wisconsin: 2020’s Ground Zero

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — A perpetual swing state, Wisconsin seems poised to play a pivotal role in next year’s presidential election. Milwaukee will be especially prominent as the host of the 2020 Democratic National Convention. — With a special election in Wisconsin’s 7th District on the horizon, we rate the seat as Likely Republican. Like much of the rural Great Lakes region, the area’s transition from blue to red has accelerated in the Trump era. — In South Jersey, Rep. Jeff Van Drew’s (NJ-2) expected switch from Democratic to Republican changes our rating for his seat to Leans Republican from Leans Democratic, though the state of the race is fluid. Table 1: Crystal Ball House ratings change Member/District Old Rating New Rating Jeff Van Drew (NJ-2) Leans Democratic Leans Republican Reviewing 2016 to 2019 results in the Badger State As 2019 closes out, it may be worth looking to one of the states that is expected to play an outsized role in next year’s presidential election: Wisconsin. The Badger State was truly decisive in 2016: While it’s easy to lump it in with Michigan and Pennsylvania as the three states that decided the election, Donald Trump’s margin in

J. Miles Coleman

Handicapping North Carolina’s New Districts

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — With a new congressional map in place, Democrats seem poised to flip two seats in the Tar Heel State, one in the Raleigh area and another in the Greensboro area. — Since his election in 2014, Rep. Mark Walker (R, NC-6) has quickly climbed the ranks of House Republicans, but he now finds his career path complicated by the new map. — While the new map better reflects North Carolina’s divided though Republican-leaning politics — Republicans almost certainly will see their advantage in the state’s delegation reduced from 10-3 to 8-5 — few districts are poised to be genuinely competitive. Table 1: Crystal Ball House ratings changes Member/District Old Rating New Rating Ted Budd (R, NC-13) Likely Republican Safe Republican George Holding (R, NC-2) Likely Republican Safe Democratic Richard Hudson (R, NC-8) Safe Republican Likely Republican Mark Walker (R, NC-6) Safe Republican Safe Democratic New NC map gives House Democrats a buffer Few states have seen more redistricting-related litigation than North Carolina. Since the 1990s, the state has been known for its irregularly-shaped districts; it will see its third congressional map this decade implemented for the 2020 election — which will be in place

J. Miles Coleman

2020 House: Assessing the Open Seats So Far

Dear Readers: The Crystal Ball will be away next week. Our next issue will be released on Thursday, Dec. 5. We wish all of you a Happy Thanksgiving. — The Editors KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — Of 28 open House seats, Republicans are defending 20 while Democrats are defending only eight. — Of eight the Crystal Ball rates as competitive, Republicans are defending all but one. — Open seats, along with pending redistricting in North Carolina, give Democrats a small buffer as they defend their majority. The open seats so far The 2018 House election cycle was defined by an unusually large number of open seats. The 2020 cycle almost certainly won’t feature as many, but there are still more than two dozen so far. And just like in 2018, the open seats that cover competitive turf provide more opportunities for Democrats than Republicans. The start of the holiday season is a good time to take stock of these open seats, because the number of retirements often increases as members consider their own futures with their families and as filing deadlines loom. Impeachment adds an additional wrinkle to the retirement calculus: Depending on the timing, it could cut into

Kyle Kondik

Election 2019 Mega-Preview: Political Conformity Seeks Further Confirmation

Dear Readers: As Virginians go to the polls next week, we wanted to recognize the late Gov. Gerald Baliles (D-VA), who passed away earlier this week. Baliles served as Virginia governor from 1986-1990 and, more recently, as director of the University of Virginia’s Miller Center. For more on his life and legacy, see our Center for Politics documentary on Baliles and this remembrance from UVA Today. — The Editors KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — Nationalized politics points to a Democratic edge in next week’s Virginia state legislative elections, and a Republican advantage in the Kentucky and Mississippi gubernatorial races. — Yet, there remains uncertainty in all of those key contests as local factors test the durability of larger partisan trends. — Unrelated to next week’s action, we have two House rating changes to announce, both benefiting Republicans. The pending CA-25 special election moves from Likely Democratic to Leans Democratic following Rep. Katie Hill’s (D) decision to resign, and Rep. Conor Lamb (D, PA-17) moves from Safe Democratic to Likely Democratic. — However, what appears to be a pending court-ordered congressional remap in North Carolina should benefit Democrats. Table 1: Crystal Ball House ratings changes Member/District Old Rating New Rating

Kyle Kondik and J. Miles Coleman

Up-Ballot Effects: Expanding the Electoral College Battleground

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — A presidential campaign strategy narrowly focused on Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Michigan might work for the Electoral College but could hurt a candidate’s party in down-ballot Senate and House races. — Senate and House battlegrounds are scattered across the Rust Belt and Sun Belt, which could incentivize presidential candidates to compete in states that they otherwise may have overlooked. — Both presidential campaigns will have plenty of money, allowing them to invest in lower priority states with the dual purpose of trying to win longshot Electoral College votes and helping Senate and House candidates down-ballot. — To help their respective parties down-ballot, presidential campaigns will need to appeal to a broad demographic of voters including white non-college voters in the Rust Belt and diverse, college-educated voters in the Sun Belt and suburban House districts across the country. Overlapping elections in the Electoral College, Senate, and House The 2020 Senate and House elections will determine the future president’s ability to implement his or her agenda. Losing either chamber would hamstring a president, allowing the opposition to obstruct legislation, oversee the executive branch, and, in the case of the Senate, stall executive and judicial appointments. Given these

Seth Moskowitz

Republicans Hunt for Safer Ground in Shifting Southern California

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — San Diego County, once a linchpin of the GOP’s Golden State coalition, now votes reliably Democratic, like most other counties with large populations. — It’s rare that former members of Congress switch districts to primary incumbents, but political realignment in San Diego has facilitated such a scenario in CA-50, where former Rep. Darrell Issa (R) is attempting a comeback against damaged incumbent Rep. Duncan Hunter (R). — Democrats’ chances at flipping CA-50 will depend largely on which Republican makes the runoff. Musical chairs in Southern California For most of us, America’s Finest City, San Diego, is known for its agreeable climate, world-famous zoo, and picturesque parks. Travel a few miles east, however, and political junkies will find a game of congressional musical chairs developing. In the inland-based 50th District, Rep. Duncan Hunter (R) finds himself in the throes of a criminal trial stemming from alleged misuse of campaign funds. Hunter’s name is well-known in the area; in 1980, his father was elected to Congress as part of the Reagan Revolution before handing off his seat to his son in 2008. Though the younger Hunter’s ethical troubles surfaced in 2017, he still managed to win

J. Miles Coleman