2020 Senate

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — The postwar renomination rate for Senate incumbents is 96%. That’s a little bit lower than the rate in the House. — However, no senators have lost renomination in 13 of the last 19 elections. So recent history does not necessarily suggest that there will be even a single Senate primary loser. — A few senators appear to face challenges that could threaten them. — Primary upsets could change the general election odds in some key races. Map 1: Senate seats contested in 2020 The Senate primary calculus The last time this current crop of senators, Class II, was up for election, in 2014, no senators lost their primaries. This represented a change from the previous two cycles, which featured significant primary upheaval, particularly on the Republican side. In 2010, three incumbent senators lost renomination in races all featuring odd circumstances: Sen. Robert Bennett (R-UT) may have won an actual primary, but he finished third at a party nominating convention, meaning he didn’t get to advance to a primary. Sen. Arlen Specter (D-PA) feared a GOP primary, so he switched parties, but then he lost in the Democratic primary; Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R-AK) lost the

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — Senate retirements are not having a dramatic effect on the partisan odds in any race so far. — Democrats have missed on some Senate recruits, and that may (or may not) matter in the long run. — Alabama and Colorado remain the likeliest states to flip, with the Democratic-held Yellowhammer State the likeliest of all. — Arizona is the purest Toss-up. — Republicans remain favored overall. Notes on the battle for the Senate Republicans have to defend 22 Senate seats this cycle to the Democrats’ 12, yet the GOP remains favored to hold the chamber in large part because so many of the seats they are defending are in states that seem certain to vote Republican for president, and strongly so. Map 1: 2020 Senate races, shaded by incumbent party Map 2: 2020 Crystal Ball Senate race ratings Of the 22 seats that the Republicans are defending, 15 are in states that Donald Trump won by 14 points or more in 2016. The overall Senate balance of power is 53-47, meaning Democrats would need to net, at minimum, three seats to take the majority (the vice president elected in 2020 would break a 50-50

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — The nomination of now-Sen. Marsha Blackburn (R-TN) for Tennessee’s open-seat Senate race last year represented a rightward shift for state Republicans. — Blackburn’s clear victory over former Gov. Phil Bredesen (D) last year means the GOP is well-positioned to hold another open Senate seat being contested next year. Tennessee’s rightward shift, and its implications Only one chapter in V.O. Key’s classic 1949 book Southern Politics in State and Nation named an individual in its title: “Tennessee: The Civil War and Mr. Crump.” Key described an era in Tennessee history when the Democratic primary decided who controlled statewide politics and Memphis political boss E.H. Crump — whose organization reigned longer than any other urban political machine in the 20th century — decided who would win the Democratic primary. Key illustrated Crump’s power by recounting the political fate of one Gordon Browning. In 1936, Browning was elected governor with Crump’s backing and the votes of 59,874 citizens of Memphis and surrounding Shelby County. Once in office, Browning fell out with Crump, who said of him that “in the art galleries of Paris there are twenty-seven pictures of Judas Iscariot — none look alike but all resemble

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — Of the 34 Senate races on the ballot in 2020, Republicans already control 22 of them while Democrats hold only 12. That represents something of a role reversal from 2018, when Democrats had to defend 26 of 35 seats being contested. — Still, Republicans start this cycle favored to hold the Senate, but there is a plausible path for Democrats, particularly if Democrats win the presidential race. — The most vulnerable senator from either party is Sen. Doug Jones (D-AL), followed by Sen. Cory Gardner (R-CO). A special election in Arizona also starts as a Toss-up. Initial Senate ratings for 2020 In the 2018 cycle, the big story was that the Democrats faced a historically difficult map of Senate races. They had to defend 26 of the 35 seats being contested, including Democratic incumbents in several dark red states. Ultimately, Democrats won 24 of the 35 races, nearly 70% of those on the ballot. But Republicans netted two seats overall, boosting their majority from 51 seats to 53 seats when the new Senate convenes next month. Democrats will hold 47 seats, a total that includes independent Sens. Angus King of Maine and Bernie Sanders

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — The 2018 Senate races are important not just for determining the majority next January, but also for setting up both parties for the next election. — Republicans are defending almost double the seats that Democrats are defending in 2020, something of a reversal from this cycle, where Democrats are playing a lot of defense. — However, the most vulnerable 2020 seat (Alabama) is currently held by a Democrat. But Democrats have some decent targets of their own. — — If Republicans can net a seat or two this year, it would make their position much stronger in 2020, much like their strong showing in 2014 protected them in 2016. Likewise, Democrats holding the line in 2018 would be a victory in and of itself, given both this year’s difficult map and the potential for a limited gain on what for Democrats is a better map in 2020. The Senate: A first look at 2020 Throughout the 2014 cycle, the Republicans appeared favored to win control of the U.S. Senate, but there was some doubt about whether they would maximize their gains. They needed six net seats to take control, but given the map, it