2020 Senate

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — Ahead of several delegate-rich contests this month, both national and state-level polls suggest that Joe Biden is solidifying his lead over Bernie Sanders. — Though a handful of states will be voting tomorrow, Michigan, given its significance in the 2016 primary, will be a focal point of the night — and is likely a must-win state for Sanders. — But some of Sanders’ great showings outside of Detroit from 2016 seem unlikely to repeat themselves this time. — In Montana’s Senate race, Democrats now have their best-possible recruit, in Gov. Steve Bullock. We still see Sen. Steve Daines (R-MT) as a favorite but are moving this race from Likely Republican to Leans Republican. Table 1: Crystal Ball Senate rating change Senator Old Rating New Rating Steve Daines (R-MT) Likely Republican Leans Republican Primary update: Sanders needs another Michigan miracle, and more The wave that Joe Biden rode to a surprisingly strong Super Tuesday is showing no signs of abating. Just to put in perspective what a strong position Biden now finds himself in, CNN and Quinnipiac University released fresh national polling today finding Biden up 16 and 19 points, respectively, on Bernie Sanders. As

Dear Readers: We’re pleased to welcome two young analysts for their Crystal Ball debuts today as we publish a bonus issue that provides an additional preview of Super Tuesday (we also looked at the battlefield yesterday). First, Katherine Clement breaks down the Texas primary, and then Niles Francis assesses two major down-ballot races today: the Alabama Senate primary and the first round of voting for the CA-25 House special election. Obviously, Super Tuesday is in a good deal of flux following the exits of Amy Klobuchar and Pete Buttigieg from the race and their last-minute endorsements of Joe Biden. We’ll be back following Super Tuesday to survey what happened and to look ahead to the crucial upcoming contests the next two Tuesdays. — The Editors KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — Texas, a traditionally Republican state that is becoming more competitive, is a vital prize on Super Tuesday. — While much of the vote has been cast, much remains, and the narrowed field adds further uncertainty to an already-close race. — The big urban areas may tell the tale. — Down the ballot, the Democratic Senate field lacks Beto O’Rourke’s sizzle as a runoff looms. — Two veteran House incumbents

Dear Readers: The Crystal Ball will be away for the holidays next week. Our next issue will come out on Thursday, Jan. 2. We wish all of our readers Happy Holidays. — The Editors KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — Impeachment is an unusual occurrence marked by usual partisanship. It is hard to argue that it has dramatically altered perceptions of the president. — Overall, our outlook for the races for president and for Congress are pretty similar to what they were at the start of the year. Impeachment, and a year in review The House of Representatives made history Wednesday, impeaching a president for just the third time. It made for an occasion that was both momentous and monotonous. Momentous in that Donald J. Trump appears likely to be the first impeached president who will nonetheless appear on general election ballots after that happened, creating a truly unprecedented American political situation, and monotonous in that a predictable, almost entirely party-line vote sets up a Senate trial where the result (acquittal) seems preordained. In other words, the specific circumstances of impeachment and what led to it are remarkable, but the reaction by the nation’s political actors is routine. This is,

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — A presidential campaign strategy narrowly focused on Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Michigan might work for the Electoral College but could hurt a candidate’s party in down-ballot Senate and House races. — Senate and House battlegrounds are scattered across the Rust Belt and Sun Belt, which could incentivize presidential candidates to compete in states that they otherwise may have overlooked. — Both presidential campaigns will have plenty of money, allowing them to invest in lower priority states with the dual purpose of trying to win longshot Electoral College votes and helping Senate and House candidates down-ballot. — To help their respective parties down-ballot, presidential campaigns will need to appeal to a broad demographic of voters including white non-college voters in the Rust Belt and diverse, college-educated voters in the Sun Belt and suburban House districts across the country. Overlapping elections in the Electoral College, Senate, and House The 2020 Senate and House elections will determine the future president’s ability to implement his or her agenda. Losing either chamber would hamstring a president, allowing the opposition to obstruct legislation, oversee the executive branch, and, in the case of the Senate, stall executive and judicial appointments. Given these

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — Ross Perot, who died earlier this week, provided something of a template for Donald Trump. He also was the best-performing third-party presidential candidate since Teddy Roosevelt in 1912. — They are not top-tier races, but there have been noteworthy Senate developments on the outer fringes of the competitive map in Kansas, Kentucky, and Virginia. — Justin Amash’s decision to leave the GOP creates another House swing seat. Ross Perot, political prophet There is a great quote from George McGovern, the 1972 Democratic presidential nominee and South Dakota senator: “You know, sometimes, when they say you’re ahead of your time, it’s just a polite way of saying you have a real bad sense of timing.” Given how American politics has developed over the past half-century, that may be a fitting way to look at businessman Ross Perot, who died Tuesday at the age of 89. Perot ran two of the most credible third-party presidential bids in American history, garnering 19% of the vote in 1992 and a still-impressive 8% in 1996. Despite his showing, he didn’t win any electoral votes, confirmation of how the Electoral College helps perpetuate the nation’s two-party duopoly. Nonetheless, the themes