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2020 Senate

Sabato's Crystal Ball

Biden Lead Looks Firmer as Midwest Moves His Way

Dear Readers: Join us today at 2 p.m. eastern for our latest episode of Sabato’s Crystal Ball: America Votes. We’ll be reacting to the first debate and going over the state of the race, including the many rating changes we made today (see below). We also will be hearing from Chris Jackson of Ipsos, the international polling firm with whom we are collaborating on the Ipsos/UVA Center for Politics Political Atlas, which features Crystal Ball race ratings, polling, and much more. Chris will discuss where Ipsos has the presidential race, how voters reacted to Tuesday night’s debate, online vs. telephone polling methodology, and much more. If you have questions you would like us to address about the debate, specific races, or other developments in the campaign, just email us at [email protected]. You can watch live at our YouTube channel (UVACFP), as well as at this direct YouTube link. This webinar series is also available as a podcast at Apple Podcasts, Spotify, and other podcast providers. Just search “Sabato’s Crystal Ball” to find it. — The Editors KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — With the first debate now in the books, we have close to 20 rating changes across the Electoral College, Senate, and House. — Joe Biden is now

Kyle Kondik and J. Miles Coleman

Rating Changes: Maine Senate Moves to Leans Democratic

Dear Readers: On Thursday at 2 p.m. eastern, we’ll be devoting our new episode of our Sabato’s Crystal Ball: America Votes webinar series to previewing the debates, which start next week. If you’ve got questions about the debates — both on the matchup this year, and also those from the past — just email us at [email protected]. You can watch live at our YouTube channel (UVACFP). You can find previous episodes of the show there, as well as other recent UVA Center for Politics panels and programming. We’ll include the direct link in the next issue of the Crystal Ball. Additionally, an audio-only podcast version of the webinar is now available at Apple Podcasts, Spotify, and other podcast providers. Just search “Sabato’s Crystal Ball” to find it. — The Editors KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — The passing of Supreme Court Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg introduces an explosive new issue into the 2020 contests, although it may not fundamentally alter the race. — Based on trends in public polling, and with a potential assist from Maine’s ranked-choice voting system, we’re moving that state’s critical Senate race from Toss-up to Leans Democratic. — The single electoral vote from the sprawling ME-2

Kyle Kondik and J. Miles Coleman

The Post-Labor Day Sprint, Part One: The Senate

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — Democrats hope they don’t get a repeat of the 2016 presidential race in the 2020 Senate races. The list of Democratic targets is long, but Republicans still retain an edge in most of the second and third-tier Senate races. — We provide our latest intel on the most competitive Senate races, and also identify an upset race to watch. — What would a good night for both parties look like? We sketch it out. The Senate picture after Labor Day If things do not break their way in the race for the Senate majority next year, Democrats may find themselves in a situation similar to Hillary Clinton’s presidential campaign four years ago: making inroads in historically unfavorable states — but not actually winning any of those targets — while coming up just short in top-tier races. Here’s what we mean when we write this: The Clinton campaign made some significant gains four years ago in some states of the Sun Belt. In Arizona and Georgia, the Democrats lost by just 3.5 and 5.1 points, respectively — the smallest deficits for Democrats in the five presidential elections this century in each state. In Texas, Donald

Kyle Kondik

Crystal Ball Video Series Continues Thursday

Join Larry J. Sabato and the Crystal Ball team tomorrow (Thursday, Sept. 3) at 2 p.m. eastern for the next installment of our new Sabato’s Crystal Ball: America Votes webinar series. We will be discussing the fallout from the two party conventions, the race for the House, and the state of the polls with a special guest: Ariel Edwards-Levy, senior reporter and polling editor for the Huffington Post. If you have questions you would like us to answer on air about these or other topics, just send us an email at [email protected]. We’ll try to get to as many reader questions as possible — and if your question doesn’t get answered this week, we may answer it in a future episode. You can watch via YouTube; while you’re there, subscribe to our University of Virginia Center for Politics YouTube channel (the name of the channel is UVACFP). The program will also be available at our YouTube channel (and at the original link) if you can’t tune in live. An audio-only version will also be posted at our podcast page. The podcast is also available on SoundCloud, and it will be on other podcast platforms soon. If you missed it, you

UVA Center for Politics

The Senate: Ranking the Top Dozen Best Targets

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — National Republicans breathed a sigh of relief on Tuesday night, as Rep. Roger Marshall (R, KS-1) beat 2018 gubernatorial nominee Kris Kobach (R) in the Kansas Senate primary. Practically speaking, the Kansas Senate race went from being a potentially major Democratic offensive target to one where the Republicans have a very clear edge. — Kansas remains Likely Republican in our ratings. — We rank the top dozen Senate seats in order of their likelihood of flipping. Of the 12, 10 are held by Republicans, underscoring the amount of defense that the GOP will need to play in order to hold their majority. — We have two Senate rating changes, one in favor of each party. Table 1: Crystal Ball Senate rating changes Senator Old Rating New Rating Georgia Special Leans Republican Likely Republican Joni Ernst (R-IA) Leans Republican Toss-up Map 1: Crystal Ball Senate ratings GOP leadership overjoyed by Kansas primary result In a cycle where the Republicans’ list of defensive responsibilities in the Senate has seemed to get longer and longer, GOP leaders must be extremely happy to be able to effectively cross one off the list. Rep. Roger Marshall (R, KS-1) defeated

Kyle Kondik

The Future Shape of the Senate

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — The Constitution divides the Senate into three “classes” that face the voters on six-year cycles. Under today’s political dynamics, the class that faced the voters in 2018 was favorable to the Republicans, while the class that faces the voters in 2020 is favorable to the Democrats. — What about the class that faces the voters in 2022? Our analysis shows that this class is also favorable to the Democrats. — If the Democrats manage to seize the Senate majority in 2020, the relatively pro-Democratic map in 2022 could insulate the party somewhat if Joe Biden is elected president and a midterm backlash benefiting the GOP emerges. — The Democrats will need to run up the score in the Senate in both 2020 and 2022 if they are going to keep the majority past the 2024 elections, when the Republicans benefit from an extremely favorable map for their party. The Senate math, 2020-2024 As the nation gears up for a highly competitive cluster of Senate elections in 2020 — with handicappers rating as many as 10 seats competitive between the parties this fall — it may seem a little crazy to start focusing on the

Louis Jacobson

States of Play: Georgia

Dear Readers: In the next installment of our States of Play series — in which we’ll be taking an in-depth look at the key states that will decide the presidential election — we look at Georgia, which Democrats are trying to win for the first time since 1992. Crystal Ball Associate Editor J. Miles Coleman and Guest Columnist Niles Francis look at the state’s recent political history and trends. This is our second installment; the first featured Pennsylvania. — The Editors KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — Over the last few decades, Georgia has gone from a swing state to reliably GOP. But it’s now looking like a genuinely competitive state again. — Democrats have made major inroads in both urban Atlanta and its suburbs, but their gains have been somewhat blunted by the sharp Republican trend in other parts of the state. — In the state’s regular Senate election this year, we’re downgrading Sen. David Perdue’s chances. We now have both Georgia’s seats rated as Leans Republican. Table 1: Senate rating change Senator Old Rating New Rating David Perdue (R-GA) Likely Republican Leans Republican States of Play: Georgia Though the fundamental camps of red states and blue states have

J. Miles Coleman and Niles Francis

The Rise of Ranked-Choice Voting

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — 2020 has been a banner year for ranked-choice voting. — Several Democratic primary and caucus contests used the system, which asks voters to rank their choice and forces winners to achieve majority support, albeit through votes from those who did not pick them first on their ballot. — Democrats seem more open to ranked-choice voting than Republicans. The proliferation of ranked-choice voting With everything else that’s going on, you may not have noticed, but 2020 has been something of a landmark year for ranked-choice voting — the system that allows voters to rank their favored candidates in descending order, with their vote re-allocated to their next choice if their top choice is eliminated. The system was used for the first time, seemingly without a hitch, in four Democratic presidential nominating contests: Alaska, Hawaii, Kansas, and Wyoming. It was also used for early voting in the Nevada caucuses. RCV, as it is known, is now used widely in Maine. Currently, ranked-choice voting is used in U.S. House and Senate races and in gubernatorial primaries, but not in races for the state legislature or the general election for governor. It’s slated to be used for the

Louis Jacobson

Notes on the State of Politics

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — Atlanta Mayor Keisha Lance Bottoms (D) seems to be rising in the Biden veepstakes. — Late Wednesday, Jon Ossoff (D) apparently captured the Democratic nomination to face Sen. David Perdue (R-GA), thus avoiding a runoff. — Primaries in South Carolina and West Virginia saw protest voting in some key races. Veepstakes and primaries — Thanks to everyone who reacted to last week’s breakdown of Joe Biden’s vice presidential options. After seeing your comments and following subsequent veepstakes developments over the weekend and earlier this week, it seems clear we did not include at least one prime contender: Atlanta Mayor Keisha Lance Bottoms (D). It is pretty obvious that she is emerging as a prime candidate to be selected, even though she lacks the formal, high-level elected experience that vice presidential nominees almost always possess (she’s never served in Congress or as a state governor). That said, she has earned a much higher profile in the midst of the ongoing national protests over police brutality, and some plugged-in people view her as a top contender for the VP slot. She will almost certainly be included in our next list of contenders, along with former national

Kyle Kondik and J. Miles Coleman

Kansas Senate: Room for an Upset?

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — Demographic changes in Kansas have caused the state to trend leftwards, as Republicans’ hold on the state’s metro areas has waned. — It remains to be seen whether these trends have moved the state into a position where Democratic candidates can be competitive at the federal level. — Democrats may have an opening with this year’s Senate race, but the crucial voters they need to win may not be where many think they are. — In a close election, regional turnout patterns could be the deciding factor. Suburban trends illustrate new alliances in Kansas Between the 2004 and 2016 presidential elections, white voters who don’t have a four-year college degree swung to the right across the country, while white voters with a college degree swung to the left. For a state like Kansas, ranked by the U.S. Census Bureau’s American Community Survey as the 16th most college-educated state in the country, trends like these would seem to suggest it has the potential to become a swing state. Although popular stereotypes paint a picture of a sparsely-populated rural state, increased urbanization in recent decades has led to the growth of major suburbs and dense cities

Jacob P. Hornstein

King Dethroned, and Other Notes from the June 2 primaries

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — Rep. Steve King’s (R, IA-4) primary loss makes his Republican-leaning seat easier for the GOP to defend. — There weren’t many other surprises from Tuesday night. Table 1: Crystal Ball House rating change Member/District Old Rating New Rating IA-4 Open (King, R) Likely Republican Safe Republican Notes from Tuesday’s primaries The first Tuesday in June of a presidential year is often a major political event — but for a lot of obvious reasons, this year’s early June primaries did not feature much drama or excitement. — The headline result, and the only one that is prompting us to make a rating change, is Rep. Steve King’s (R, IA-4) primary loss to state Sen. Randy Feenstra (R) in a Republican-leaning northwest Iowa district. King’s litany of racist comments had become impossible to ignore, and Republican leadership had stripped him of his committee assignments. This district voted for Donald Trump by a 60%-33% margin, and King’s narrow, three-point victory in 2018 had a lot to do with his abhorrent comments. With King out of the picture, Feenstra should be fine against 2018 nominee J.D. Scholten (D). We moved IA-4 from Likely Republican to Safe Republican on

Kyle Kondik

The Senate: Looking Beyond the “Core Four”

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — The focus on the evenly-matched battle for the Senate has in some ways narrowed to four GOP-held seats: Arizona, Colorado, Maine, and North Carolina. — Practically speaking, Democrats probably have to win all four, and the White House, to win the Senate. — However, the map may be expanding. Democrats’ best bet among the other targets probably is Montana, but we still see a small Republican edge there. — We are making two rating changes this week on the periphery of the Senate map: Alaska and South Carolina move from Safe Republican to Likely Republican. Table 1: Crystal Ball Senate rating changes Member/District Old Rating New Rating Dan Sullivan (R-AK) Safe Republican Likely Republican Lindsey Graham (R-SC) Safe Republican Likely Republican Map 1: Crystal Ball Senate ratings Beyond the core four There is a widespread consensus that, in the battle for the Senate, there are four races that may effectively decide the majority. Dubbed the “core four” by one operative, the races in Republican-held Arizona, Colorado, Maine, and North Carolina are the ones that the Democrats seem to have the best chance of flipping. (For sports fans, the “core four” term may ring a

Kyle Kondik and J. Miles Coleman

Gubernatorial Appointment Powers for U.S. Senate Seats: Which Vacancies Could Prompt a Party Switch?

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — In a presidential election year, the senatorial appointment powers of governors become especially important, as sitting U.S. senators become possible choices for vice president or the Cabinet of an incoming president. — Currently, in 38 states, there is no chance that the gubernatorial appointment of a temporary senator will come from the opposite party. In the remaining 12 states, a party-shifting senatorial appointment is theoretically possible. — Presumptive Democratic nominee Joe Biden shouldn’t have much to worry about as he makes his choices. Most of the senators who could become Biden’s running mate represent states where their seat would not be at immediate risk of a party shift. The one exception is Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-MA). — A special election necessitated by a senator leaving her seat to become vice president could also lead to Democrats losing a Senate seat. This could give Biden pause as he considers some choices, perhaps most notably Sen. Tammy Baldwin (D-WI). The Senate control implications of Biden’s VP possibilities Note: This story has been corrected to include Montana as a state where a new Senate appointee must share the same party as the departed senator, and it corrects

Louis Jacobson

The Senate: Watch the Top of the Ticket

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — Incumbent senators almost never lose reelection in presidential years when their party’s presidential candidate wins their state. — Democrats need to net four seats to win an outright majority in the Senate and three seats to tie it. In the case of a Senate tie, the vice president casts the tie-breaking vote. — Democrats’ magic number in the Senate realistically is three — if they net any more, all signs point to them winning the presidential election and, with it, the tie-breaking Senate vote. For Senate Democrats, three is the magic number In order for Democrats to win an outright majority in the Senate and overcome the current 53-47 Republican split, they need to net four seats. In the case of a Senate tie, however, the vice president casts the tie-breaking vote. Given the 2020 Electoral College and Senate maps, it is difficult to imagine a plausible scenario whereby Democrats net four Senate seats but do not win the presidency and the tiebreaking power in the Senate. So three is the real magic number for Senate Democrats. In a previous edition of the Crystal Ball, I argued that presidential candidates should run strong campaigns

Seth Moskowitz

Rating Changes: Electoral College and Senate

Dear Readers: Please join Crystal Ball Editor in Chief Larry J. Sabato, Managing Editor Kyle Kondik, and Associate Editor J. Miles Coleman for a livestreamed assessment of the 2020 landscape from noon to 1 p.m. eastern today. The livestream will be available at: https://livestream.com/tavco/sabatoscrystalball and is free. We previously were asking those interested to sign up through Eventbrite, but in order to accommodate a larger audience we decided to provide a direct livestream link. During the livestream, we will spend a significant portion of the time answering reader questions. To submit a question, tweet using the hashtag #UVACB2020 or email us at [email protected]. Concise questions will have a better chance of getting answered. Today’s two-part Crystal Ball offers a wide-ranging assessment of the political state of play in the midst of the ongoing public health crisis. Part one describes a series of rating changes we’re making in the Electoral College and Senate. Part two makes some bigger-picture observations and describes parallels between the 1980 election and this one. — The Editors KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — We are not dramatically revising our outlook for the presidential election, at least not yet. — That said, several rating changes in the Electoral

Kyle Kondik