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2020 Senate

Sabato's Crystal Ball

The Atlas of Post-Dobbs Abortion Ballot Measures: Part Two

Dear Readers: The Crystal Ball team will be reacting to last night’s first Republican presidential debate on a new episode of our “Politics is Everything” podcast. Look for it later today here or wherever you get your podcasts. — The Editors KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — Vermont and California were two blue states where the pro-abortion rights sides of 2022 ballot measures ran considerably ahead of Democratic nominees for statewide office. — Also in 2022, voters in Kentucky and Montana defeated GOP-backed abortion-related ballot questions; the results of those votes may provide something of an electoral roadmap for Gov. Andy Beshear (D-KY) and Sen. Jon Tester (D-MT). — The pro-abortion rights side has generally run ahead of Democratic candidate performance recently, although there are now examples from several states of Democratic candidates doing better than the ballot issues in a variety of heavily minority areas. — In each of the seven states that have held abortion-related ballot measures since the Supreme Court’s Dobbs ruling, the pro-abortion rights side has outperformed Biden more In the counties that make up lesser-populated “bottom half” counties in these states. Abortion ballot issues vs partisan races (continued) Last week, we began our look at

J. Miles Coleman

Like His Predecessors, Trump Suffered Down-Ballot Losses — But the Declines Were Comparatively Modest

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — Like every post-World War II president, Donald Trump witnessed a fall-off in his party’s numbers of U.S. Senate, U.S. House, gubernatorial, and state legislative seats during his presidency. That said, compared to recent presidents, the erosion on Trump’s watch was more modest than it was for his immediate predecessors. — One obvious difference is that Trump had only one term in office and escaped a “six-year-itch” election. The only other postwar president to escape the down-ballot curse relatively unscathed was George H.W. Bush, who was the most recent president before Trump to be ousted after one term. — Another factor may be today’s heightened partisan polarization, which makes states and districts less “swingy” than they have been in the past. Trump’s down-ballot impact For a defeated president, Donald Trump still seems to wield a great deal of power within the Republican Party. GOP candidates are still angling for his backing, and his decision whether to run for another term looms over the emerging 2024 Republican presidential field. It may or may not be wise going forward, from a strictly electoral standpoint, for Trump to remain as central to the GOP as he is. On

Louis Jacobson

Did Scandal Cost North Carolina Democrats a Senate Seat?

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — In North Carolina’s hotly contested Senate race last year, Sen. Thom Tillis (R-NC) narrowly won reelection against a scandal-plagued opponent, former state Sen. Cal Cunningham (D-NC). — Had Cunningham’s candidacy not been weighed down by a personal affair, he may have still lost. Indeed, a Tillis win was consistent with other results around the country and in the state. — Still, Cunningham certainly didn’t benefit from his scandal, and it very likely cost him votes. Democrats fumble away a winnable race… or did they? It is one of the great what-ifs of the 2020 election cycle: absent a late-breaking scandal, would Democrats have won North Carolina’s Senate race? Even though Democrats won the Senate anyway, thanks to twin victories in Georgia’s early January Senate runoffs, the question merits exploration. For one thing, every Senate seat is vital to both sides in an evenly-divided chamber. And at a time when elections seem more nationalized than ever, it may be that the foibles of candidates matter less. During the 2020 cycle, North Carolina’s Senate contest was seen as a must-win for Senate Democrats. In this light red state, Sen. Thom Tillis (R-NC) looked vulnerable. He was

J. Miles Coleman

NOW AVAILABLE: A Return to Normalcy? Our Book on the 2020 Election

A Return to Normalcy? The 2020 Election That (Almost) Broke America — the University of Virginia Center for Politics’ new look at the 2020 presidential election and its consequences — is now available through UVA Bookstores, Indiebound, and other online booksellers. Edited by Crystal Ball editors Larry J. Sabato, Kyle Kondik, and J. Miles Coleman, A Return to Normalcy? brings together what Booklist calls a “stellar coterie of reporters, pundits, and scholars” to “parse the 2020 election via a data-driven set of analytics displayed in useful charts and graphs, drawing conclusions that will satisfy hard-core political junkies and provide a solid foundation for everyone looking ahead to 2022 and 2024.” Tonight (Thursday, April 8) at 6:30 p.m. eastern, four of the book contributors will participate in a free virtual forum: “Taking Stock: The Societal Impact of the 2020 Election.” Business Insider‘s Grace Panetta will moderate. She wrote a chapter on the massive expansion of early and mail-in voting necessitated by the pandemic. In it, she notes how President Trump’s criticism of mail-in voting “represented a stark reversal for the GOP because it upended decades of Republican get-out-the-vote strategy — in the process baffling and upsetting numerous Republican candidates and operatives.

UVA Center for Politics

The Democrats’ 51% Trifecta

Dear Readers: During this huge week in American politics and in advance of a big shift of power in Washington, what should we expect of the high-stakes political road ahead? Kick off the new year with a “ripped from the headlines” presentation by University of Virginia Center for Politics Director Larry J. Sabato and an all-star guest lineup featuring former U.S. Speaker of the House Paul Ryan (R-WI); former Democratic vice presidential nominee Sen. Tim Kaine (D-VA); and many others for a two-hour discussion of the major political news of the day. The program will be streaming live from the Rotunda from 6 p.m. to 8 p.m. this evening. To view the program live, sign up at Eventbrite. We also will be posting the event as a Sabato’s Crystal Ball webinar — look for it on our YouTube channel, UVACFP, and as a podcast at major podcast providers on Thursday. This is the inaugural event in the Democracy Dialogues series sponsored by UVA President Jim Ryan, the Institute of Democracy, and the Center for Politics. — The Editors KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — With apparent victories in the Georgia Senate runoffs, Democrats have captured a narrow governing trifecta — control of the White House, Senate,

Kyle Kondik and J. Miles Coleman

GOP Likely Needs a Big Georgia Turnout Today

Dear Readers: With a new president about to take office and a sharply divided Congress, what should we expect of the high-stakes political road ahead? Kick off the new year with a “ripped from the headlines” presentation by University of Virginia Center for Politics Director Larry J. Sabato and an all-star guest lineup featuring former U.S. Speaker of the House Paul Ryan (R-WI); former Democratic vice presidential nominee Sen. Tim Kaine (D-VA); and many others for a two-hour discussion of the major political news of the day. All alumni, parents, friends, and students are invited to join Larry Sabato, who will be streaming live from the Rotunda from 6 p.m. to 8 p.m. on Wednesday, Jan. 6. To view the program live on Wednesday, sign up at Eventbrite. We also will be posting the event as a Sabato’s Crystal Ball webinar — look for it on our YouTube channel, UVACFP, and as a podcast at major podcast providers on Thursday. This is the inaugural event in the Democracy Dialogues series sponsored by UVA President Jim Ryan, the Institute of Democracy, and the Center for Politics. — The Editors Georgia races remain Toss-ups With Election Day voting underway in the crucial Senate runoffs

Kyle Kondik

Georgia Senate Runoffs: Breaking Down November, Looking to January

Dear Readers: This is the last issue of the Crystal Ball this year. We wanted to finish off our 2020 publishing schedule by taking a deep look at the Georgia Senate runoffs, which will decide control of the Senate on Tuesday, Jan. 5. The Crystal Ball continues to rate both races as Toss-ups, for reasons that this detailed analysis from Associate Editor J. Miles Coleman and Georgia analyst/friend of the Crystal Ball Niles Francis will make clear. We also are pleased to feature an analysis of Joe Biden’s performance in the suburbs from outside contributors Lakshya Jain and Kendall Kaut, which further analyzes political trends in Georgia (and other key states). For more on the results of the 2020 election, make sure to check out our most recent episodes of our Sabato’s Crystal Ball: America Votes webinar series, including our American Democracy Conference and Georgia Senate preview featuring Greg Bluestein of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution. We wish all of you Happy Holidays and a Happy New Year, and we’ll be back in early January. — The Editors KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — In a highly unusual situation, both of Georgia’s Senate seats will be on the ballot next month —

J. Miles Coleman and Niles Francis

Coalition Shifts in Senate Races: SC, KY, IL

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — The reelection victories of three long-serving senators illustrate some of the nation’s political shifts. — Despite a well-funded Democratic challenge, Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-SC) held on in large part because of the lack of ticket splitting in his red state. — As of this election, Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) has now carried every county in Kentucky in a general election at some point in his career. — Sen. Dick Durbin (D-IL) was solidly reelected in his blue state last month, but he’s traded much of his Downstate support for votes in Chicagoland. Graham, McConnell, and Durbin’s changing coalitions In some ways, senatorial elections, especially in presidential years, are becoming increasingly boring. Sure, this past senatorial cycle saw record-shattering amounts of money spent and featured a colorful cast of candidates, but at the end of the day, the elections were defined, mostly, by partisan loyalty. In 2016, all 34 states that had Senate races voted the exact same way for both their presidential and senatorial contests. With the exception of Sen. Susan Collins (R-ME), that was the case in 2020, as well — though Sens. David Perdue (R-GA) and Kelly Loeffler (R-GA) may

J. Miles Coleman

Sifting Through the Results So Far

Dear Readers: We just posted a new Crystal Ball webinar on Friday afternoon, which you can watch at this direct link on YouTube. We discussed presidential concession speeches, our successful Electoral College projection, ticket-splitting (or lack thereof), what remains to be counted, and the looming Georgia Senate runoffs in January. Next Thursday’s Crystal Ball webinar will feature our 22nd annual American Democracy Conference. We’ll be hearing from New York Times columnist Jamelle Bouie; CNN commentator Tara Setmayer; Republican strategist Chris LaCivita; and Democratic strategist John Lapp. That program will be posted at 2 p.m. on Thursday, Nov. 12 on our YouTube channel, UVACFP. — The Editors One has to go back to 1884 to find a newly-elected Democratic president, Grover Cleveland, who won without his party also winning both chambers of Congress. If Joe Biden pulls out the presidential race — which seems likelier than not as we write this Wednesday afternoon, although much is uncertain — it seems likely he will be the next Democratic president to face at least one hostile chamber of Congress. Amidst the highest turnout in modern history, both Biden and President Donald Trump turned out their bases and battled in an epic duel that

Larry J. Sabato, Kyle Kondik, and J. Miles Coleman

Final Ratings for the 2020 Election

Dear Readers: Due to popular demand, we decided to release a final pre-election Sabato’s Crystal Ball: America Votes webinar. We will be going through our picks for the election. We’ll also hear from Rob Griffin, the research director of the Democracy Fund Voter Study Group, about the demographic changes we are likely to see in the electorate tomorrow and into the future, as well as how we should interpret the exit polls tomorrow evening. We will be releasing this edition on our YouTube channel by 2 p.m. eastern. Just visit our YouTube channel, UVACFP, then (or whenever you want), and look for Episode 12 of the Sabato’s Crystal Ball: America Votes webinar. The direct link will also be available on the Center for Politics’ Twitter account (@center4politics) as soon as it is posted later today. — The Editors KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — Our final Electoral College ratings show Joe Biden at 321 electoral votes and Donald Trump at 217. — Democrats are narrow favorites to capture a Senate majority, 50-48 with two Toss-ups — the two Georgia races, both of which we think are likely to go to runoffs. — We have Democrats netting 10 seats in the

Larry J. Sabato, Kyle Kondik, and J. Miles Coleman

Georgia’s Senate Races Both Move to Toss-up

Dear Readers: Join us today at 2 p.m. for our Sabato’s Crystal Ball: America Votes webinar. In addition to breaking down the election with just days to go, we’ll be joined by Scott Tranter of Decision Desk HQ, a site that will be independently reporting results Tuesday night. Scott will give us some tips about what to watch for on Election Night — and beyond.   We are releasing this week’s episode a little differently as a way to address some persistent audio issues from previous episodes. Instead of livestreaming the webinar, we will be posting it directly to our YouTube channel at 2 p.m. eastern. Just visit our YouTube channel, UVACFP, then (or whenever you want), and look for Episode 11 of the Sabato’s Crystal Ball: America Votes webinar. The direct link will also be available on the Center for Politics’ Twitter account (@center4politics) at around 2 p.m. Thursday. — The Editors KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — Georgia’s two Senate races move to Toss-up. — They may be the only two races we leave in Toss-up when we release our final election picks on Monday. — The concept of Occam’s Razor — the idea that the simplest explanation

Kyle Kondik

The Senate: Iowa to Leans Democratic

Dear Readers: Join us Thursday at 2 p.m., just hours before the final presidential debate, for the latest edition of Sabato’s Crystal Ball: America Votes. If you have questions you would like us to answer about the closing days of the campaign, email us at [email protected]. Additionally, an audio-only podcast version of the webinar is now available at Apple Podcasts, Spotify, and other podcast providers. Search “Sabato’s Crystal Ball” to find it. You can watch live at our YouTube channel (UVACFP), as well as at this direct YouTube link. One other note: The Center for Politics’ new three-part documentary on the challenges facing democracy, Dismantling Democracy, is now available on Amazon Prime. — The Editors KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — We are moving the Iowa Senate race from Toss-up to Leans Democratic. Iowa remains a Toss-up for president. — Iowa may have replaced North Carolina as the race likeliest to decide Senate control, although North Carolina remains a very viable Democratic target despite Cal Cunningham’s (D) troubles. — We have a couple of House rating changes, mostly out of an abundance of caution. We also update the House state of play. Table 1: Senate rating change Senator Old Rating

Kyle Kondik and J. Miles Coleman

Election 2020: A Fortnight and Five Days Away

Dear Readers: On today’s 2 p.m. edition of Sabato’s Crystal Ball: America Votes, we’ll go in-depth on the race for the Senate. We’ll also be joined by a special guest: Grace Panetta of Business Insider. The election has already started, with millions of votes already cast: Grace is closely following these trends and will give us an update on changes in how people vote and what those changes might tell us about the results. If you have questions you would like us to answer about early voting, specific races, or other developments in the campaign, email us at [email protected]. Additionally, an audio-only podcast version of the webinar is now available at Apple Podcasts, Spotify, and other podcast providers. Search “Sabato’s Crystal Ball” to find it. You can watch live at our YouTube channel (UVACFP), as well as at this direct YouTube link. One other note: The Center for Politics’ new three-part documentary on the challenges facing democracy, Dismantling Democracy, will be available on Amazon Prime starting this Friday. — The Editors   KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — With 19 days to go before the election, Joe Biden’s lead in the presidential race remains steady, although his national lead is

Kyle Kondik

Forecasting the 2020 U.S. Senate Elections Using Presidential Polling Data

Dear Readers: On Thursday’s 2 p.m. edition of Sabato’s Crystal Ball: America Votes, we’ll go in-depth on the race for the Senate. We’ll also be joined by a special guest: Grace Panetta of Business Insider. The election has already started, with millions of votes already cast: Grace is closely following these trends and will give us an update on changes in how people vote and what those changes might tell us about the results. If you have questions you would like us to answer about early voting, specific races, or other developments in the campaign, email us at [email protected]. Additionally, an audio-only podcast version of the webinar is now available at Apple Podcasts, Spotify, and other podcast providers. Search “Sabato’s Crystal Ball” to find it. You can watch live at our YouTube channel (UVACFP), as well as at this direct YouTube link. — The Editors KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — Senate elections have become increasingly tied to presidential voting results. — This shows up in this year’s polling, as the margins for states’ presidential and Senate races are closely linked. — An analysis of these polling data suggest that Democrats are likely to achieve a net gain of between

Alan I. Abramowitz

With Just Weeks to Go, Trump is Not Making up Ground

Dear Readers: Join us today at 2 p.m. eastern for our latest episode of Sabato’s Crystal Ball: America Votes. Vice presidential expert Joel K. Goldstein will be joining us to react to the VP debate. If you have questions you would like us to answer about the debate, specific races, or other developments in the campaign, just email us at [email protected]. Additionally, an audio-only podcast version of the webinar is now available at Apple Podcasts, Spotify, and other podcast providers. Just search “Sabato’s Crystal Ball” to find it. You can watch live at our YouTube channel (UVACFP), as well as at this direct YouTube link. — The Editors KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — Recent rosy polling for Joe Biden in the presidential race may represent an artificial sugar high for the challenger. — But at this point, Donald Trump needs to be making up ground — not treading water or falling further behind. — 11 rating changes across four categories of races (president, Senate, House, and governor) almost exclusively benefit Democrats. Table 1: Crystal Ball Electoral College rating changes State Old Rating New Rating Arizona Toss-up Leans Democratic Georgia Leans Republican Toss-up New Hampshire Leans Democratic Likely Democratic Table

Kyle Kondik and J. Miles Coleman