The 2024 Crossover House Seats: Overall Number Remains Low with Few Harris-District Republicans
Just 16 districts voted for one party for president and the other for House, which is the same overall and historically-low total as 2020.
The House District Results That Tell the Presidential Story
Prior to the election, we identified some key House districts that would tell that would tell the tale of both the race for the presidency and the race for the House. A tour of these districts shows the broad gains Donald Trump made in 2024 in places that previously had been both swinging toward and against him.
Our Final 2024 Ratings
Our final race ratings for the 2024 presidential, Senate, House, and gubernatorial races
Notes on the State of the Election: Close States, House and Senate polls, and More
A history of close states in recent presidential races, plus a look at House and Senate polling and trends
Rating Changes: Pushing House Toss-ups, Nebraska Senate to Leans Republican
We are pushing a few House Toss-ups out of that category this week, leaving revised ratings that show 212 House seats at least leaning Republican, 209 at least leaning Democratic, and 14 Toss-ups. The Nebraska Senate race also moves to Leans Republican.
House Rating Change: Key NE-2 Race to Leans Democratic
The balance of the data suggests that Rep. Don Bacon (R, NE-2) should be viewed as a small underdog at this point, so we’re moving the race from Toss-up to Leans Democratic.
Five House Rating Changes as Overall Battle for Majority Remains Tight
We are changing 5 House ratings this week, although that does not change our overall arithmetic in the House. We continue to view the race for the chamber as effectively a 50-50 proposition.
Notes on the State of Debates and Primaries
a few takeaways from last night’s presidential debate, a tally of incumbent success in U.S. House primaries this year, and how New Hampshire set up a woman-vs.-woman gubernatorial election, a historical rarity that has become much more common the past couple of cycles.
The House: District by District Slugfest Endures Amidst Top of the Ticket Turmoil
The presidential winner probably will end up winning the House majority too, although the margins in the House are so tight that a split outcome is not out of the realm of possibility.
How Current Presidential Polling May Impact House Races
On Monday, Rep. Angie Craig (D, MN-2) became the first House Democrat from a marginal district to call for Biden to step aside. Craig's thinking may be informed by the reality that, if current polling holds, Donald Trump may carry hear seat. Using a few uniform swing scenarios, we look at what other types of Biden-won seat may be at risk of flipping to Trump.
Notes on the State of Politics: May 22, 2024
Incumbents strong at halfway point of House calendar; Democrats get their candidate in key Oregon House race; updates on Georgia, Kentucky, Louisiana, and Vermont
Districts of Change, Part Two: Looking Beyond the Straight-Party Districts
The vast majority of congressional districts have voted "straight-party" in presidential elections since 2008. There are 56 districs that have voted for either side's nominee at least once, though. These seats will be important in the overall fight for the House.
Notes on the State of Politics: May 7, 2024
TX-28 moves from Likely Dem to Leans Dem following up indictment of Rep. Henry Cuellar (D), and we follow up our item from last week about the tricky procedural questions if no one wins a majority of electoral votes in the presidential election and the House needs to resolve it.
Trump’s Contingent-cy Plan
GOP remains highly favored if no presidential candidate gets 270 electoral votes and the House decides the presidency
Notes on the State of Politics: April 24, 2024
A rating change in Pennsylvania's House races, and some uncertain signals from the finalized California House top-two primary results