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2014 Senate

Sabato's Crystal Ball

Ratings changes: Hawaii, Maryland and Michigan

In addition to our new Crystal Ball Outlook for the House, Senate and gubernatorial races, we have a few tweaks to make to our ratings this week. To get our ratings changes as they happen, follow the Crystal Ball team on Twitter — @LarrySabato, @kkondik and @geoffreyvs — and check our website’s Ratings Changes page. Table 1: Crystal Ball ratings changes HAWAII (SEN): On Monday, this race got a big “aloha” from President Obama when he endorsed appointed Sen. Brian Schatz (D) in the Democratic primary. Unlike in some other states, the president remains relatively popular in his birthplace, and polls have shown Schatz and his primary opponent, Rep. Colleen Hanabusa (D, HI-1), in a neck-and-neck battle. Obama backing a candidate in the state of his birth could be the rare endorsement that matters. The Democratic match-up will also be influenced by race and faction. Hanabusa was viewed as the late Sen. Daniel Inouye’s (D) preferred successor, but after Inouye’s death in December 2012, Gov. Neil Abercrombie (D) instead put Schatz, his lieutenant governor, in the seat. This decision has even complicated Abercrombie’s own gubernatorial reelection race as it upset some Asian-American Democrats, many of whom were close friends and

Kyle Kondik and Geoffrey Skelley

Putting Their Eggs in the Wrong Midterm Basket

Barring significant changes in group voting habits, many commentators have argued that “The Coalition of the Ascendant” is positioned to give Democrats a notable edge in elections in the near future. There may be some truth to that supposition: The country is clearly getting more diverse, and nonwhite voters tend to vote strongly Democratic. A key cog in this coalition has been young voters — often called Millennials — who are more diverse than their elders. Exit poll data in 2012 suggest that young people were vital in securing President Barack Obama’s second term in the White House. He garnered 60% of the 18-to-29 vote (after winning 66% of it in 2008), by far the highest percentage Obama won among any age group. Estimating from exit poll data, all else equal, it’s possible that Obama would have narrowly lost the popular vote (and perhaps the Electoral College vote, too) had he won the same percentage among 18-to-29 year olds as he did among 30-to-44 year olds (52%). Continued strong support for Democratic presidential candidates in the future among younger voters could spell trouble for the GOP as generational replacement occurs (yes, that’s a euphemism). However, one aspect of this trend

Geoffrey Skelley

The End of Amendments?

This year marks the centennial anniversary of the first class of popularly-elected U.S. Senators, as mandated by adoption of the 17th Amendment. A hundred years later, several current or former Republican members of Congress, including Todd Akin (MO), Paul Broun (GA), Pete Hoekstra (MI) and Jeff Flake (AZ), have indicated their support for returning the selection of U.S. senators to state elites. Although the movement to repeal the 17th Amendment is likely to fizzle, the fact is plans to amend the Constitution are mostly a waste of time because, other than a widely popular and highly-unifying suggested change, it is probably almost impossible to ratify or even propose amendments in our highly-polarized nation and divided national government. Holding aside the 10 amendments of the Bill of Rights — and an 11th regulating congressional compensation that, proposed more than two centuries ago as one of 12 originally proposed amendments, was belatedly ratified in 1992 as the 27th Amendment — only 16 amendments that were not part of the constitutional bargain struck in 1787 have been proposed and ratified in the 226 years since the founders met in Philadelphia. That works out to one amendment about every 14 years. After setting aside

Thomas F. Schaller

It’s the Stupid Economy

U.Va. Center for Politics Director Larry J. Sabato is contributing a regular column to Politico Magazine. This week, he examines whether or not an improved economic picture could potentially help Democrats stave off trouble in November 2014. — The Editors Last week’s special election in Florida’s 13th congressional district, where GOP Rep. David Jolly upset Democrat Alex Sink, provided a sugar high to Republicans, but otherwise it didn’t tell us all that much we didn’t already know. There’s close to a consensus among nonpartisan election handicappers about the upcoming 2014 midterm elections: Democrats can’t win the House, and they might lose even more ground to the GOP. And Republicans are bound to pick up some Senate seats, perhaps the six they need to take control or even more; their Senate map is so good that the 10 seats that seem likeliest to change hands in the fall are all held by Democrats. This was all true before about 183,000 voters in Pinellas County, FL, had their say — 0.001% of the total number of votes cast in the 2012 election — and it remains true now. Beyond that, this is the sixth-year election in a two-term presidential administration. That usually

Larry J. Sabato

Senate update: Domino effects

To demonstrate just how Republican this year’s Senate playing field is, consider this: Of the 36 Senate elections this year (33 regularly scheduled and three specials), the Crystal Ball sees 16 as at least potentially competitive at the moment. Of those races, 14 are currently held by Democrats, and just two are held by Republicans. In other words, nearly all the competitive seats this cycle are in places where Democrats are playing defense. That fact alone indicates the GOP is poised for a strong cycle, although we’re not ready to say they will in fact win the six seats they need to take outright control of the Senate, even though they have a path to six — or perhaps even several seats more than that. Democrats, meanwhile, would do quite well to hold the GOP to a net gain of three or four seats. Such are the perils of holding the White House in a midterm election on the best GOP Senate map of the three classes contested once every six years. It’s possible that the Republicans will pick up the Senate even if 2014 is not a “wave” election: In fact, the likeliest election outcome at this point seems

Kyle Kondik

Generic Ballot Model Shows Senate Control at Tipping Point

Crystal Ball Senior Columnist Alan Abramowitz’s discussion of his Senate elections model not only confirms how close we expect the 2014 Senate campaign will be, but it’s also quite timely, as the Republicans yesterday expanded their list of credible Senate targets. Rep. Cory Gardner (R, CO-4), after previously declining to challenge Sen. Mark Udall (D-CO), is now reportedly entering the contest. Assuming he advances to the general election, Gardner should give Udall a stiffer challenge than the other Republicans in the field. This news moves the Colorado Senate race from Likely Democratic to Leans Democratic. — The Editors The battle for control of the U.S. Senate is where the action is this year in American politics. Right now all signs point to a near standoff in the U.S. House elections. Barring a major change in the political environment in the next few months, the 114th House is expected to closely resemble the 113th House with a slightly larger or slightly smaller Republican majority. In contrast, party control of the next Senate is definitely up for grabs this year. The main reason why Democrats are at risk of losing control of the Senate in November is not because of public discontent

Alan I. Abramowitz

Deep-sixing California

California is such a massive state — if it were an independent nation, it would have the eighth-largest economy in the world — that it has long been the subject of partitioning proposals. Now a new plan is calling for the Golden State to be dismembered into six new states. The proposal could possibly go before California voters in November should proponents collect the required number of signatures of nearly 808,000 registered voters to put the proposition on the ballot. As displayed below in Map 1, the plan would create the following six states out of California: Jefferson, made up of the northern-most parts of the state; North California, containing Sacramento and areas east and west of it in the north-central part of California; Silicon Valley, encompassing San Francisco, San Jose and much of California’s famous tech corridor; Central California, incorporating much of California’s agricultural heartland in the state’s east-central region; West California, including mainly Los Angeles; and South California, containing San Diego and other big counties south and east of Los Angeles. Map 1: The six-state plan Source: California Legislative Analyst’s Office The Crystal Ball loves a good hypothetical, so putting aside the unlikelihood of this partition, let’s consider

Geoffrey Skelley

The Six Most Overrated Races of 2014

As previously announced, U.Va. Center for Politics Director Larry J. Sabato will be contributing a column every other week to Politico Magazine. With Crystal Ball Managing Editor Kyle Kondik, this week’s column highlights six races getting a lot of media limelight right now that probably shouldn’t by November, particularly the Kentucky Senate and Texas gubernatorial contests. — The Editors With the midterm election three-quarters of a year away, the political press is understandably focusing on the races with the biggest personalities and most dramatic storylines. But just because a race makes for great copy in February doesn’t mean it’s going to be all that compelling in November. Take, for instance, this observation from ABC News: “No doubt about it: The Kentucky Senate race will be the most watched 2014 contest of them all, and the stakes could not be higher.” Almost everyone appears to agree, to judge by the coverage so far. There’s been a sizable amount of ink spilled on the Kentucky contest because of its seemingly titanic implications: Could Mitch McConnell, in a year when he might otherwise become majority leader, actually be toppled in the Republican primary by an upstart Tea Party type, Matt Bevin? Or lose

Larry J. Sabato and Kyle Kondik

LONG ODDS FOR MOST SENATE PRIMARY CHALLENGES

Last week, the Crystal Ball updated some 2014 general election ratings in the Senate. The takeaway: Control of Congress’ upper chamber very much hangs in the balance. As a follow-up, this week we’re taking a look at some important Senate primaries in states that are likely to have uncompetitive general elections. In heavily Democratic and Republican states, winning the dominant party’s primary is tantamount to election in November, which means the most important developments in these races will likely occur well before the fall. One of the driving narratives in this cycle and in recent elections is the conflict between establishment and Tea Party forces within the Republican Party. This internal clash has prompted a number of primary challenges by Tea Party candidates against so-called establishment GOP incumbents, a pattern repeated in 2014. However, most intra-party challenges, in both parties, will fail in 2014, as they have throughout most of modern American history. Since 1946, just 5% of incumbent senators seeking reelection have lost in their party primary. Interestingly, and as one might expect, just 2% of House incumbents seeking reelection have lost primaries in that same time period. Table 1 below gives the Senate data from each cycle between

Larry J. Sabato, Kyle Kondik, and Geoffrey Skelley

Senate 2014: A coin-flip

Political news in the opening weeks of 2014’s midterm year has been dominated not by the upcoming national election, but instead by the one coming after it, in 2016. The year’s biggest political story is Gov. Chris Christie’s (R-NJ) bridge controversy, which is a story about the next presidential campaign and how much damage it does to Christie’s presidential hopes. The full 2016 story remains to be told, but the only connection Ft. Lee has with 2014 is Christie’s chairmanship of the Republican Governors Association, which supports GOP statehouse candidates. Perhaps the second-biggest political story of the year so far is the tremendous fall from grace of former Gov. Bob McDonnell (R-VA), whose months-long ethical struggles culminated in his indictment Tuesday for alleged influence-peddling. The indictment itself is worth a read — not just for political junkies, but also for movie goers who couldn’t get enough of two of this year’s award darlings: American Hustle and The Wolf of Wall Street. The films’ respective directors — David O. Russell and Martin Scorsese — could do plenty with the material. Needless to say, Tuesday was a dark day for our home state of Virginia, but McDonnell’s governorship is over with, and

Larry J. Sabato, Kyle Kondik, and Geoffrey Skelley

Virginia’s brewing 2014 Senate race flips 2013’s script

The hack versus the partisan — sound familiar? An interesting wrinkle of former Republican National Committee Chairman Ed Gillespie’s likely challenge to Sen. Mark Warner (D-VA) is that the forthcoming campaign, so long as it materializes, would in some ways simply reverse the arguments from last year’s Virginia gubernatorial race. In that contest, won by former Democratic National Committee Chairman Terry McAuliffe over outgoing state Attorney General Ken Cuccinelli (R), Republicans portrayed their opponent as a sleazy Washington insider, while Democrats attacked Cuccinelli as a rigid, extreme partisan. With Gillespie now likely to enter, Democrats are calling him a “DC shadow lobbyist.” Gillespie, meanwhile, believes that Warner hasn’t lived up to his moderate reputation and is a rubber stamp for President Obama: “Mark Warner has not turned out to be the senator a lot of Virginians thought he would be,” Gillespie said last month. The messages that parties use to win elections always contain at least some hypocrisy when compared to other races, and such a flipping of the script in 2014 from a race concluded just two months ago is a good example of the frequent plasticity of politics. Of course, comparing Cuccinelli, whose hard-right social issues positions alienated

Kyle Kondik

Republicans Really Could Win It All This Year

We are pleased to announce that U.Va. Center for Politics Director Larry J. Sabato will be contributing a column every other week to Politico Magazine, which we will be linking to in the Crystal Ball. His inaugural column analyzes what factors will matter in the 2014 midterm and where the race for the House and Senate stands right now. — The Editors Another midterm election beckons, and over the next 10 months we’ll see headlines about a thousand supposedly critical developments — the “game changers” and the “tipping points.” But we all know there aren’t a thousand powerful drivers of the vote. I’d argue that three factors are paramount: the president, the economy and the election playing field. And, at least preliminarily, those three factors seem to be pointing toward Republican gains in both houses in the 2014 midterms. Why? To read the rest of the column, please click here.

Larry J. Sabato

14 FOR ‘14: SOME BOLD PREDICTIONS FOR THE NEW YEAR

As we wrap up our publishing schedule for 2013, we looked into the Crystal Ball to offer some predictions for next year. While the picture is still a little hazy for the 2014 midterms, we’ve got some other prognostications related to the political year to come and some hints about what you should expect. 1. At least one additional U.S. senator will announce his or her retirement in 2014. We’re giving ourselves some wide latitude here, because it’s possible the retirement will come after the 2014 midterms. But we suspect at some point next year another senator will decide to quit; the question is, will it be an incumbent who determines he or she cannot win in 2014 — similar to ex-Sen. Ben Nelson (D-NE), who retired in late 2011 after realizing his perilous political position — or will it be someone who retires for another reason — like ex-Sen. Olympia Snowe (R-ME), who left the game in early 2012 because of frustration despite having an easy road to another term. While it’s not technically a retirement, another important development shook the Senate Wednesday evening: Sen. Max Baucus (D-MT) is reportedly going to be nominated as ambassador to China. Baucus

Larry J. Sabato and Kyle Kondik

A December freeze?

With Christmas and New Year’s less than two weeks away, the political doldrums might finally be upon us. Tuesday saw President Obama attend the funeral for legendary South African President Nelson Mandela, producing stories about him shaking hands with Cuban dictator Raul Castro and the look on Michelle Obama’s face as her husband took a photo with the British and Danish prime ministers. Game changers, these ain’t. Congressional Republicans and Democrats even appear to be close to cutting a deal that would avert another government shutdown before the next election. So long as there isn’t a widespread revolt in the House, the budget agreement could be finalized in a matter of days. Given that another shutdown probably would have favored the Democrats — like the last shutdown did in October — approving this budget pact would probably be wise politics for Republicans. Like a snowglobe after a good shake, perhaps the holidays and a quiet few weeks will give the political snowflakes time to settle after a tumultuous couple months, and we can get clearer answers to some big-picture questions: Is President Obama’s job approval dip terminal? Are Republicans actually surging, or are they just riding an Obamacare high? Does

Kyle Kondik

Could the Budget Deal Fail?

On Tuesday, Sen. Patty Murray (D-WA) and Rep. Paul Ryan (R, WI-1) announced a two-year budget agreement that could potentially offer a respite from the fiscal fights of the past few years. But many conservative House Republicans are already balking at the deal because it breaks the spending caps called for under the sequester. Some conservative groups, such as Americans for Prosperity and the Club for Growth, have already come out in opposition, offering threats to GOP incumbents who vote for it. Our bet is that the bill will pass, perhaps handily. But legislative politics is trickier in some ways than electoral politics because the number of “voters” is far smaller, and they are all highly informed and strategic in their thinking. Therefore, let’s suppose the Crystal Ball is wrong in its prediction of passage. How would the budget compromise be defeated in Congress? At present, there are 432 members in the U.S. House. While the special election to replace now-Sen. Ed Markey (D-MA) took place on Tuesday and saw Katherine Clark (D) duly elected, she hasn’t been seated yet. It’s also unlikely that Rep. Mel Watt (D, NC-12) will vote considering he was just confirmed in the Senate as

Geoffrey Skelley