Skip links

2018 House

Sabato's Crystal Ball

Ratings Changes: House and Governors

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — A slew of new House polling, mostly from the New York Times and Siena College, contains bright spots for both parties but also suggests a Democratic edge in the race for the House. — We have seven House ratings changes, all in favor of Democrats. — We also have two gubernatorial ratings changes, also in favor of Democrats. Table 1: Crystal Ball House ratings changes Member/District Old Rating New Rating AZ-9 Open (Sinema, D) Likely Democratic Safe Democratic Mike Coffman (R, CO-6) Toss-up Leans Democratic FL-15 Open (Ross, R) Likely Republican Leans Republican Erik Paulsen (R, MN-3) Toss-up Leans Democratic George Holding (R, NC-2) Likely Republican Leans Republican NM-2 Open (Pearce, R) Leans Republican Toss-up Chris Collins (R, NY-27) Likely Republican Leans Republican Table 2: Crystal Ball gubernatorial ratings changes Governor Old Rating New Rating CO Open (Hickenlooper, D) Toss-up Leans Democratic MI Open (Snyder, R) Toss-up Likely Democratic By now, those who watch the House of Representatives are aware of the New York Times’ massive House polling project in conjunction with Siena College. They are in the field daily and will release dozens of House polls from now through the November election. They

Kyle Kondik

Keep on Keepin’ On: 2018 Incumbent Renomination Rates

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — As a whole, incumbents won renomination in U.S. Senate, U.S. House, and gubernatorial nomination contests at a typical rate in 2018. In all, 100% of senators, 99% of representatives, and 95% of governors who sought renomination in Democratic or Republican primaries/conventions won renomination this cycle. — Just four members of Congress lost renomination. No senators lost renomination, but four House members fell in primaries or primary runoffs: Reps. Mike Capuano (D, MA-7), Joe Crowley (D, NY-14), Robert Pittenger (R, NC-9), and Mark Sanford (R, SC-1). Outside of the four congressional defeats, the only other incumbent to lose renomination in 2018 was Gov. Jeff Colyer (R-KS). — Overall, in the 1974-2018 period, incumbents won renomination at the following rates: 97% for senators, 99% for representatives, and 95% for governors. — Although few incumbents lost renomination in 2018, much turnover in the House and governorships remains possible, even likely. In all, 58 House members have retired, second only to the 1992 cycle, and including open seats via redistricting in Pennsylvania and incumbent primary losses, 64 House seats will feature no incumbent running in November. Meanwhile, 17 gubernatorial contests have no incumbent in the general election (including

Geoffrey Skelley

Introduction: The 2018 Midterm Election Forecasts

Editor’s Note: In an effort to provide as broad a view as possible to readers about different methods of forecasting the 2018 midterm election, we have been featuring models from respected political scientists that aim to project the net seat change in the U.S. House of Representatives. So far, we’ve published models from Crystal Ball Senior Columnist Alan Abramowitz and from the team of Joseph Bafumi, Robert Erikson, and Christopher Wlezien. Both suggest the Democrats are favored to retake the House majority. This week, we’re featuring two more models from James Campbell and the team of Charles Tien and Michael Lewis-Beck. They too forecast a Democratic House takeover, and of a bigger size than the two previously published models. However, these forecasts also address the Senate, and they suggest Republicans are favored to retain control of the upper chamber. Those two models are described in this week’s Crystal Ball. But first, Campbell has an introductory piece explaining these models and the overall midterm environment. Explanations of all of these models, as well as Campbell’s introduction, will be appearing in PS: Political Science and Politics. We’d like to thank Campbell for once again convening this collection of forecasts, which is something

James E. Campbell

The Seats-in-Trouble Forecasts of the 2018 Midterm Congressional Elections

The Seats-in-Trouble model of party seat change in national congressional elections (both on-year and midterms) is a hybrid election forecasting model. It combines the insights and comprehensive assessments of expert election analysts examining in depth the conditions of individual House and Senate contests with a rigorous statistical analysis of historical aggregate data of partisan seat change. From seats exposed to seats in trouble The model essentially builds on the seat exposure idea explored by Bruce Oppenheimer, James Stimson, and Richard Waterman and similar notions examined by others who recognized the simple facts that you can’t lose what you don’t have and you are more likely to lose a lot if you have a lot to lose. Taking it to the next level, if you have a lot of vulnerable seats, chances are greater you’ll lose a lot of seats. The Seats-in-Trouble forecasting equation built from these observations was first used in the 2010 House elections. It has since been modified, tweaked, and extended to Senate elections. The accuracy of its forecasts in its various incarnations has been quite good until 2016, when substantial expected Democratic seat gains failed to materialize. As a result, the model’s standard of what constitutes a

James E. Campbell

Congressional Forecasts for 2018: Structure-X Models

We build here on our “Structure-X model,” successfully applied in 2014. We first generate a 2018 forecast from our classic structural model. Next, we adjust this forecast on the basis of expert judgments provided in Inside Elections with Nathan L. Gonzales. With respect to the first step, the structural model, we employ the following equation: House Seat Change = Presidential Approvalt–1 + Disposable Incomet–1 + Mid-termt  (Eq. 1) OLS yields the following results, HS = -44.83 + 0.82*P + 4.91*I – 28.53*M  (Eq. 2) R2 = .59, adj. R2 = .55, RMSE = 18.06, D-W = 1.87, N = 35 Notes: HS = presidential party seat change in the House of Representatives, I = change in real disposable income, for initial six months of the election year (from the Bureau of Economic Analysis’s National Income and Product Account Table 2.1: Personal Income and Its Disposition), P = June Gallup poll presidential popularity rating from Gallup’s Presidential Approval Center, M = midterm dummy (0 = presidential election, 1 = midterm election), figures in parentheses are t-scores, * = statistical significance beyond .05. To forecast the 2018 seat change in the House, we insert the independent variable values: I = 1.73 (December 2017 through June

Charles Tien and Michael S. Lewis-Beck

Notes on the State of Politics

Governors: The Last Frontier’s three-cornered fight favors the Republicans On Tuesday, an important deadline came and went in Alaska’s gubernatorial race: the final day that a candidate could officially withdraw and not appear on the November ballot. Since former Sen. Mark Begich (D-AK) entered the race on June 1, the final day to file as a candidate, Democrats have worried that he and Gov. Bill Walker (I-AK) might draw from some of the same base of support in the general election, easing the GOP’s path to victory. Walker, a former Republican, ran as an independent with a Democrat as his lieutenant governor nominee in 2014 (Byron Mallott, who is on the same ticket with Walker again), and was something of a de facto Democratic candidate four years ago (there was no Democrat on the ballot). Given the Democrats’ concern about fragmenting the vote, the Sept. 4 deadline to withdraw loomed large, especially as behind-the-scenes dealmakers tried to push Begich or Walker to get out. Begich announced on Tuesday that he would hold an afternoon press conference, leading to speculation that he planned to exit the race, thus preventing a likely split of the left and center in a right-leaning state.

Geoffrey Skelley and Kyle Kondik

A Labor Day Status Report

We’ve been starting Crystal Ball pieces with a few “key points” summing up the article. As we head into Labor Day weekend and the start of the sprint to Election Day, we thought we’d do something different. Instead of key points from this article, here are some key points about this election so far: Pluses for Republicans: The economy is good and we’re not in the midst of an unpopular foreign war, two sometimes-predictors of poor midterm performance for the White House party. The map benefits Republicans in both the battle for the House and the Senate: The median House seat by presidential performance (NE-2) voted for President Donald Trump by two percentage points, while Hillary Clinton won the national popular vote by two, making the median House seat about four points to the right of the nation, which is a good shorthand for the generic GOP edge in the House. In the Senate, Democrats are defending 26 of the 35 seats being contested, one of the worst maps any party has had to defend in a midterm. The president’s approval rating, while poor, has not gotten worse in recent months; the House generic ballot, generally showing a Democratic lead

Kyle Kondik and Geoffrey Skelley

Forecasting the 2018 Midterm Election using National Polls and District Information

Editor’s Note: In advance of the 2016 election, the Crystal Ball featured several political science forecasts of the presidential race. Released several months in advance of the election, these models included variables such as the incumbent’s approval rating, the economy, and other “fundamental” factors, and they generally did a good job of projecting a very close presidential race. There also are political science models that try to project the midterm outcome for the U.S. House of Representatives, including the one featured below by political scientists Joseph Bafumi, Robert S. Erikson, and Christopher Wlezien. Crystal Ball Senior Columnist Alan Abramowitz released his model last year in the Crystal Ball, with the only variable unknown back then the House generic ballot average. As of Wednesday afternoon, Democrats held leads of six-to-nine percentage points in the polling averages, which translate in Abramowitz’s model to around a 30-seat expected Democratic gain. That projection is very much in line with the Bafumi-Erikson-Wlezien model described below. Both models predict Democratic House gains that, if realized, would give them the majority, but only a small one: Democrats need to net 23 seats to win the House, and there is enough uncertainty in these models that Republicans holding

Joseph Bafumi, Robert S. Erikson, and Christopher Wlezien

Center for Politics, Ipsos Public Affairs release new midterm election forecasting tools

(WASHINGTON, DC) — The University of Virginia Center for Politics and Ipsos today launched the UVA Center for Politics-Ipsos Political Atlas. The new site combines Sabato’s Crystal Ball race ratings for every House, Senate, and gubernatorial race; Ipsos’ poll-based modeling; and Ipsos’ tracking of social media trends. Ipsos and the Center for Politics unveiled the Political Atlas, www.political-atlas.com, at an event at the National Press Club on Tuesday morning. The idea behind the Political Atlas is that election projection is done best by offering readers several different sources of information, which the Atlas provides through the Crystal Ball’s qualitative race rating assessments and the Ipsos’ poll-based model and social media tracking. The three methods provide separate race ratings (Toss-up, as well as Leans, Likely, and Safe Democratic or Republican) to assess the likelihood of either side winning a given race. “The best practice in forecasting understands that no single approach leads to knowing the future. The most robust predictions use multiple, independent indicators and looks for common conclusions or divergent directions,” said Clifford Young, president of Ipsos Public Affairs. The Political Atlas will include: Daily updates of the main issues affecting citizens in all 50 states. Polling and social media

UVA Center for Politics

House Update: 12 Ratings Changes

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — Tuesday’s episode of real-life Law and Order involving two figures close to the president, Michael Cohen and Paul Manafort, may not directly hurt the GOP in the midterm. But given their current position, the Republicans need a little help, and Tuesday didn’t provide it. — We are making 12 ratings changes; 10 in favor of Democrats, two in favor of Republicans. Table 1: Crystal Ball House ratings changes Member/District Old Rating New Rating Don Young (R, AK-AL) Safe Republican Likely Republican Duncan Hunter (R, CA-50) Safe Republican Leans Republican Karen Handel (R, GA-6) Leans Republican Likely Republican Rodney Davis (R, IL-13) Likely Republican Leans Republican Randy Hultgren (R, IL-14) Likely Republican Leans Republican NC-9 Open (Pittenger, R) Toss-up Leans Democratic Tom MacArthur (R, NJ-3) Leans Republican Toss-up Dave Joyce (R, OH-14) Likely Republican Leans Republican TX-2 Open (Poe, R) Safe Republican Likely Republican Pete Olson (R, TX-22) Safe Republican Likely Republican Cathy McMorris Rodgers (R, WA-5) Toss-up Leans Republican WA-8 Open (Reichert, R) Toss-up Leans Democratic Cohen, Manafort, and the dwindling electoral clock Tuesday’s bombshell developments — the conviction of President Trump’s former campaign chairman, Paul Manafort, followed in swift succession by a guilty

Kyle Kondik

Exploring the Incumbency Advantage

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — The incumbency advantage in U.S. House races, at least during this decade, has been relatively minor. — There’s no evidence that longer-serving incumbents build a larger incumbency advantage over time. This decade’s marginal incumbency edge It may be the oldest assumption in politics: Incumbents hold an advantage, and the longer they are there, the more powerful they are. It makes inherent sense: The voters know incumbents better, incumbents can wield more power to bring home the bacon, and incumbents are able to raise more cash. However, the rules of politics have changed. Incumbents can no longer use influence to secure their district pork barrel spending or perks from a committee chairmanship. There’s evidence that the effect of spending, now in the millions on close races, may not even have any measurable outcome on the performance of a race anymore. When building out my 2018 House Model (linked here), I set out to explore the measurable impact of as many factors as I could, and what I found out shocked me. At least in the latest redistricting cycle (so starting in 2012), the incumbency advantage seems marginal at best. Additionally, there’s no evidence to support

Noah Rudnick

The House: Ratings Changes in the Aftermath of Another Nail-Biter Special Election

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — A likely GOP win in a suburban Columbus House seat still represents a significant underperformance compared to usual Republican performances there. — Washington state’s top-two primary results so far should also be concerning to Republicans because they indicate three districts could be at risk in the fall. — We are moving a handful of House races toward the Democrats, and we continue to see Democrats as “soft favorites” in the House. Table 1: Crystal Ball House ratings changes Member/District Old Rating New Rating Kevin Yoder (R, KS-3) Leans Republican Toss-up MI-11 Open (Trott, R) Toss-up Leans Democratic NJ-11 Open (Frelinghuysen, R) Toss-up Leans Democratic Chris Collins (R, NY-27) Safe Republican Likely Republican Lamb vs. Rothfus (PA-17) Toss-up Leans Democratic PA-7 Open (Dent, R) Toss-up Leans Democratic J. Herrera Beutler (R, WA-3) Safe Republican Leans Republican C. McMorris Rodgers (R, WA-5) Leans Republican Toss-up Tuesday results consistent with what we’ve seen throughout the cycle Is there such a thing as a moral victory in politics? Democrats hope so in OH-12. While the race remains uncalled, it appears as though state Sen. Troy Balderson (R) will squeak by Franklin County Recorder Danny O’Connor (D) in a

Kyle Kondik

The House Tilts Toward the Democrats

Editor’s Note: This is a special Tuesday edition of the Crystal Ball. We’ll be back to our regular Thursday schedule next week. KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — Democrats are now a little better than 50-50 to win the House. This is the first time this cycle we’ve gone beyond 50-50 odds on a House turnover. — We’re making 17 House ratings changes this week, all in favor of the Democrats. — One of those comes in OH-12, where the last nationally-watched special House election is taking place in a couple of weeks. Table 1: Crystal Ball House ratings changes Member/District Old Rating New Rating French Hill (R, AR-2) Likely Republican Leans Republican Vern Buchanan (R, FL-16) Likely Republican Leans Republican Charlie Crist (D, FL-13) Likely Democratic Safe Democratic Steve King (R, IA-4) Safe Republican Likely Republican David Young (R, IA-3) Leans Republican Toss-up Peter Roskam (R, IL-6) Leans Republican Toss-up Trey Hollingsworth (R, IN-9) Safe Republican Likely Republican Jackie Walorski (R, IN-2) Safe Republican Likely Republican Andy Barr (R, KY-6) Leans Republican Toss-up Mike Bishop (R, MI-8) Leans Republican Toss-up NM-2 Open (Pearce, R) Likely Republican Leans Republican Steve Chabot (R, OH-1) Leans Republican Toss-up OH-12 Special (Tiberi, R)

Kyle Kondik

Registering By Party: Where the Democrats and Republicans Are Ahead

KEY POINT FROM THIS ARTICLE — Altogether, there are 31 states (plus the District of Columbia) with party registration; in the others, such as Virginia, voters register without reference to party. In 19 states and the District, there are more registered Democrats than Republicans. In 12 states, there are more registered Republicans than Democrats. In aggregate, 40% of all voters in party registration states are Democrats, 29% are Republicans, and 28% are independents. Nationally, the Democratic advantage in the party registration states approaches 12 million. Poring over party registration This is not the best of times for the Democratic Party. No White House; no Senate; no House of Representatives; and a clear minority of governorships and state legislatures in their possession. Yet the Democrats approach this fall’s midterm elections with an advantage in one key aspect of the political process — their strength in states where voters register by party. Altogether, there are 31 states (plus the District of Columbia) with party registration; in the others, such as Virginia, voters register without reference to party. Among the party registration states are some of the nation’s most populous: California, New York, Florida, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, New Jersey, Arizona, and Massachusetts. The

Rhodes Cook

A half-dozen House ratings changes in favor of Democrats

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — Rep. Joe Crowley’s (D, NY-14) primary loss represents a changing of the guard in a diverse district. It does not necessarily suggest we should expect a flood of additional Democratic primary losers. As it stands, only three incumbent House members have lost renomination so far this cycle (Crowley, plus two Republicans). — Tuesday’s primary night was otherwise uneventful, and the president had a good night. — We have half a dozen House ratings changes, all in favor of Democrats. More below. Table 1: Crystal Ball House ratings changes Member/District Old Rating New Rating Mimi Walters (R, CA-45) Leans Republican Toss-up Tom MacArthur (R, NJ-3) Likely Republican Leans Republican NJ-2 Open (LoBiondo, R) Leans Democratic Likely Democratic Dave Brat (R, VA-7) Leans Republican Toss-up Barbara Comstock (R, VA-10) Toss-up Leans Democratic Scott Taylor (R, VA-2) Leans Republican Toss-up A changing of the guard in New York City Going into Tuesday night, no Democratic House member had been denied renomination in a primary, and all but one won their primaries on Tuesday. Yet the one exception was the fourth-ranking member of the Democratic caucus: Rep. Joe Crowley (D, NY-14), who was toppled by liberal activist Alexandria

Kyle Kondik