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Sabato's Crystal Ball

The Atlas of Post-Dobbs Abortion Ballot Measures: Part Two

Dear Readers: The Crystal Ball team will be reacting to last night’s first Republican presidential debate on a new episode of our “Politics is Everything” podcast. Look for it later today here or wherever you get your podcasts. — The Editors KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — Vermont and California were two blue states where the pro-abortion rights sides of 2022 ballot measures ran considerably ahead of Democratic nominees for statewide office. — Also in 2022, voters in Kentucky and Montana defeated GOP-backed abortion-related ballot questions; the results of those votes may provide something of an electoral roadmap for Gov. Andy Beshear (D-KY) and Sen. Jon Tester (D-MT). — The pro-abortion rights side has generally run ahead of Democratic candidate performance recently, although there are now examples from several states of Democratic candidates doing better than the ballot issues in a variety of heavily minority areas. — In each of the seven states that have held abortion-related ballot measures since the Supreme Court’s Dobbs ruling, the pro-abortion rights side has outperformed Biden more In the counties that make up lesser-populated “bottom half” counties in these states. Abortion ballot issues vs partisan races (continued) Last week, we began our look at

J. Miles Coleman

How the Rookie Governors are Performing So Far

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — Governors seem to be strikingly popular these days, especially compared to national political figures and institutions such as Congress and the Supreme Court. — This tendency appears to be holding for the nine rookie governors who took office for the first time after last November’s elections. — While the nine rookie governors’ approval ratings run along a spectrum from passable to great, none is in dire straits politically. A few have leveraged unified party control in their state to enact aggressive agendas, while others are building up their policy records more slowly, often because they have to work with opposition-party control of one or both legislative chambers. Assessing the new governors In a pattern we first wrote about a year ago, governors appear to be strikingly popular these days, especially compared to national political figures and institutions such as Congress and the Supreme Court. This perception was bolstered by the findings of the most recent 50-state survey by Morning Consult, the only polling undertaken nationally on gubernatorial approval ratings. The Morning Consult findings, which were released April 19, found that every single governor in the country was above water — that is, with the

Louis Jacobson

The Red Ripple Excerpts: Five Takeaways from 2022

On Wednesday, we announced the release of our new book on the recent midterm elections: The Red Ripple: The 2022 Midterm Elections and What They Mean for 2024. What follows are a few excerpts from the book, illustrating five takeaways from the election. As a reminder, Crystal Ball readers can get 25% off by using the code RLFANDF25 when purchasing the book directly through the publisher, Rowman and Littlefield. The book is also available through Amazon, Barnes and Noble, and other book retailers. 1. 2022 was another change election – but with an asterisk In his introductory chapter, Crystal Ball Editor-in-Chief Larry J. Sabato put 2022 into historical context: In the last sixteen years, 2006 to 2022, every election but one has been a change election. After a dozen years of GOP control in the House, Democrats took over Congress in 2006, then Barack Obama swept to power in 2008, ending GOP control of the White House. A backlash to Obama led to a GOP landslide for the House in 2010, and Republicans completed their takeover of Congress by capturing the Senate in 2014. Two years later, Donald Trump shocked the world in a repudiation of both Obama and his

UVA Center for Politics

NOW AVAILABLE: The Red Ripple Tells the Story of the 2022 Midterm and Looks Ahead to 2024

The Center for Politics’s latest book — The Red Ripple: The 2022 Midterm Elections and What They Mean for 2024 — is now available. Edited by the Crystal Ball team of Larry J. Sabato, Kyle Kondik, and J. Miles Coleman along with our Center for Politics colleague Carah Ong Whaley, The Red Ripple brings together top political journalists, analysts, and academics to examine every facet of the 2022 election and what the results will mean for the nation moving forward. Crystal Ball readers can get 25% off by using the code RLFANDF25 when purchasing the book directly through the publisher, Rowman and Littlefield. The book is also available through Amazon, Barnes and Noble, and other book retailers. Chapters and contributors are: 1. Another Confounding Election, Larry J. Sabato 2. Donald Trump and the Vanishing Red Wave, Alan Abramowitz 3. 2022 Primaries: Setting the Table for November, Rhodes Cook 4. Not Much but Good Enough: The GOP’s House Takeover, Kyle Kondik 5. The Senate: Sticking with the Devils They Know, J. Miles Coleman 6. Governors and State Legislatures, Mary Frances McGowan 7. The Red Ripple of Election Denialism, Carah Ong Whaley 8. A Year of High Turnout, New Rules, and Changes

UVA Center for Politics

No, the Big Lie Hasn’t Gone Away

Dear Readers: Listeners to our “Politics is Everything” podcast are already familiar with Carah Ong Whaley, who joined the Center for Politics several months ago. She will be contributing periodically to the Crystal Ball, and her first piece — on how election deniers performed in the 2022 elections — is below. — The Editors KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — An analysis of 552 Republican candidates running for Senate, House of Representatives, governor, secretary of state, and attorney general in the 2022 elections shows that close to half (221 candidates) who made statements on a spectrum from those who accepted the 2020 election outcome with reservations to those who fully denied the results won in 2022. — Candidates who fully denied the 2020 election didn’t have all that much trouble raising funds. Nearly $500 million was raised by 192 candidates who fully denied results compared to about $515 million raised by those who ran in opposition. — While the good news is that surveys show the majority of Americans are confident their votes will be accurately cast and counted, confidence is at historic lows and there is a partisan divide. — The extent to which unfounded claims of election fraud

Carah Ong Whaley

2022’s Split Ticket States

Dear Readers: The Center for Politics at UVA will hold its 24th annual American Democracy Conference tonight starting at 6 p.m. Join us virtually at: https://livestream.com/tavco/adc2022 The conference will feature a pair of panels focusing on what happened in the 2022 election and looking ahead to the 2024 presidential election. Participants include: CBS News Face the Nation Moderator and Chief Foreign Affairs Correspondent Margaret Brennan;  New York Times columnist Jamelle Bouie; Sabato’s Crystal Ball Associate Editor J. Miles Coleman; Former U.S. Rep. Barbara Comstock (R, VA-10); ABC News Chief Washington Correspondent and Co-Anchor of This Week with George Stephanopoulos Jonathan Karl; Sabato’s Crystal Ball Managing Editor Kyle Kondik; Former Virginia state Del. David Ramadan (R); and political communications veteran and commentator Tara Setmayer — The Editors KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — Among states that are finished voting this year, 5 chose candidates of different parties between their Senate and gubernatorial elections. This number is roughly in line with recent midterms. — Georgia is headed to a runoff, but Sen. Raphael Warnock (D-GA) and Brian Kemp (R-GA) placed first in their respective races this month. — Arizona came close to splitting its ticket, but ultimately voted for 2 Democrats. There

J. Miles Coleman

What Happened in the States

Dear Readers: Join us at noon eastern today for a Twitter Spaces featuring Kyle Kondik and J. Miles Coleman of the Crystal Ball and our Center for Politics colleague Carah Ong Whaley. They will be discussing the continuing takeaways from the 2022 election, Donald Trump’s presidential announcement, the looming Georgia Senate runoff, and much more. If you cannot tune in live, we also will be releasing the Twitter Spaces as an episode of our “Politics is Everything” podcast. On Wednesday, Nov. 30, the Center for Politics will hold the 24th annual American Democracy Conference from 6 p.m. to 8:30 p.m. at the Colonnade Club’s Garden Room on the Grounds of UVA. The Crystal Ball team and our Center for Politics scholars will break down what happened in 2022 and look ahead to 2024. The conference is free and open for in-person attendance with advanced registration through Eventbrite; it will also streamed here. In today’s Crystal Ball, Senior Columnist Louis Jacobson recaps what happened in the various state races he has been tracking for us this cycle. We wish all of you a Happy Thanksgiving. The Crystal Ball will be back the last week of November. — The Editors KEY POINTS

Louis Jacobson

Looking Back at the 2022 Projections

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — After overestimating Republican performance in 2022, we wanted to give a short explanation to readers about our thinking in the run-up to the election. — In the end, and with a lot of contradictory information, we thought the indicators pointed more toward the Republicans than the Democrats. — In a political world where “lol, nothing matters” seemed to be a safe assumption in recent years, it appears that a lot of things did matter — things that should matter. How we assessed 2022 the way we did The day before the 2022 election, HuffPost’s Jonathan Cohn tweeted the following: “Feel like I could selectively pull anecdotes and data to make a convincing case for a big election surprise in the D direction — and then do the very same thing for a big election surprise in the R direction.” One of us replied to the tweet, saying the following: “It’s true. I think in the end, a good R election is easier to explain/anticipate (fundamentals) than a good D one.” In a nutshell, this is the best explanation we can offer as to why we thought Republicans would do better in this election than

Kyle Kondik J. Miles Coleman and Larry J. Sabato

Final Ratings for the 2022 Election

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — Our final Senate pick is 51-49 Republican, or a net Republican gain of 1 seat. — Our final House pick is 237-198 Republican, or a net Republican gain of 24 seats. — Our projected gubernatorial picture is 29-21 Republican, or a net Republican gain of 1 governorship. — Read on for details — and caveats. Table 1: Crystal Ball Senate rating changes Senator Old Rating New Rating Raphael Warnock (D-GA) Toss-up Leans Republican C. Cortez Masto (D-NV) Toss-up Leans Democratic PA Open (Toomey, R) Leans Democratic Leans Republican Table 2: Crystal Ball House rating changes Member/District Old Rating New Rating CA-13 Open (No inc.) Toss-up Leans Republican Mike Levin (D, CA-49) Leans Democratic Leans Republican David Valadao (R, CA-22) Toss-up Leans Republican Jahana Hayes (D, CT-5) Leans Democratic Leans Republican IL-17 Open (Bustos, D) Toss-up Leans Republican Frank Mrvan (D, IN-1) Toss-up Leans Democratic Jared Golden (D, ME-2) Toss-up Leans Democratic Dan Kildee (D, MI-8) Toss-up Leans Democratic Elissa Slotkin (D, MI-7) Toss-up Leans Republican Angie Craig (D, MN-2) Toss-up Leans Democratic Susie Lee (D, NV-3) Toss-up Leans Republican NY-3 Open (Suozzi, D) Toss-up Leans Republican NY-19 Open (No inc.) Toss-up Leans Republican Steve

Kyle Kondik J. Miles Coleman and Larry J. Sabato

Six Days to Go

Dear Readers: Crystal Ball editors Kyle Kondik and J. Miles Coleman, along with our Center for Politics colleague Carah Ong Whaley, will be hosting a Twitter Spaces at noon eastern on Thursday to discuss the looming midterm elections. You can tune in here; if you cannot make it, we will also be releasing the discussion as an episode of our Politics is Everything podcast. The podcast is available on all major podcast platforms. If you have a question you would like us to answer during our discussion, feel free to email us at [email protected]. — The Editors KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — The race for the Senate continues to lack a clear favorite, but the majority remains within reach for Republicans despite a headache-plagued campaign year. — Republicans hope to cut into the Leans or Likely Democratic gubernatorial races as they seek to net seats despite the likely losses of Maryland and Massachusetts. — A handful of House rating changes serve as a small taste of our final update Monday, when we’ll offer our final picks for the midterm. Table 1: House rating changes Member/District Old Rating New Rating CO-8 Open (No inc.) Toss-up Leans Republican FL-23 Open (Deutch,

Kyle Kondik

The Governors: Georgia, Florida Move Further Toward Republicans

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — A couple of high-profile gubernatorial races move further toward Republicans. — In Georgia, Gov. Brian Kemp (R) appears positioned to win his rematch with Stacey Abrams (D), probably without a runoff. — In Florida, the questions are more about the size of Gov. Ron DeSantis’s (R) margin and if he will run for president than whether he’ll lose to Charlie Crist (D). Table 1: Crystal Ball gubernatorial rating changes Governor Old Rating New Rating Ron DeSantis (R-FL) Likely Republican Safe Republican Brian Kemp (R-GA) Leans Republican Likely Republican Republican governors strengthen in southeast The national battle for control of state governorships remains highly uncertain in several key states across the country. Democrats continue to be on track for a couple of fairly easy pickups in the open, blue states of Maryland and Massachusetts. Five Toss-ups remain: open, Republican-held Arizona; open, Democratic-held Oregon; and the second-term bids by Govs. Laura Kelly (D-KS), Steve Sisolak (D-NV), and Tony Evers (D-WI). All of these races, based on both private and public polling, remain close, although it’s not hard to imagine Republicans doing quite well in those races, given the broader national environment and our understanding of the

J. Miles Coleman

Upset Alert

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — As we approach Election Day, the basic fundamentals of this midterm may be reasserting themselves, to the benefit of Republicans. — That said, there are also a lot of contradictory signs. — We are highlighting a number of deep sleeper potential upsets in today’s issue, ranging from Senate races in Iowa and Washington to gubernatorial races in New York and Oklahoma. — Most sleeper races will not feature an upset come Election Day, but some may under the right set of circumstances. — We are making several rating changes to our Senate, House, and gubernatorial ratings. Table 1: Crystal Ball Senate rating changes Senator Old Rating New Rating Chuck Grassley (R-IA) Safe Republican Likely Republican Patty Murray (D-WA) Safe Democratic Likely Democratic Table 2: Crystal Ball House rating changes Member/District Old Rating New Rating MT-1 Open (No inc.) Likely Republican Leans Republican NY-4 Open (Rice, D) Likely Democratic Leans Democratic Annie Kuster (D, NH-2) Leans Democratic Likely Democratic PA-12 Open (Doyle, D) Safe Democratic Likely Democratic Table 3: Crystal Ball gubernatorial rating change Governor Old Rating New Rating Kathy Hochul (D-NY) Safe Democratic Likely Democratic Where to watch for upsets With 3 weeks to go until

Kyle Kondik and J. Miles Coleman

Four Weeks to Go

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — We’re now less than 4 weeks from 2022’s Election Day. We have several rating changes this week in House and gubernatorial races, and we also wanted to update our thinking on the Senate. Table 1: Crystal Ball House rating changes Member/District Old Rating New Rating CO-8 Open (No inc.) Leans Republican Toss-up RI-2 Open (Langevin, D) Leans Democratic Toss-up WI-3 Open (Kind, D) Leans Republican Likely Republican Table 2: Crystal Ball gubernatorial rating changes Governor Old Rating New Rating Jared Polis (D-CO) Likely Democratic Safe Democratic Tim Walz (D-MN) Leans Democratic Likely Democratic Kevin Stitt (R-OK) Safe Republican Likely Republican The Senate Probably the biggest recent news in the Senate has come in Georgia, where the campaign of former NFL star Herschel Walker (R) was rocked by reporting that the anti-abortion candidate had paid for an abortion for a girlfriend. The report fits in with broader questions that Walker has faced about his personal and professional background. But it’s unclear whether the story has changed the race in any enduring way. Walker’s travails illustrate a larger question about 2022: Senate Republicans are running a weak crop of candidates in an era where candidate quality

Kyle Kondik and J. Miles Coleman

The 2022 Ad Wars

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — To get a flavor of the 2022 ad messages from both sides, we watched nearly 350 campaign ads that came out in the second half of September. — Abortion dominates Democratic messaging, while Republicans are much less likely to mention it. Crime has become a huge focus for Republicans, with Democrats trying to inoculate themselves by featuring law enforcement officers in their ads. — Joe Biden and Nancy Pelosi are frequently cited in Republican attack ads, but other politicians make cameos in ads not directly related to their states/districts. How the ads frame 2022 The next time you, dear reader, and your family decide to sit down for a movie night, just consider this: A typical movie might be about 2 hours long. That’s 120 minutes. So in the time it takes you to watch, say, the first modern Spider-Man movie, (almost exactly 2 hours long), you all could instead watch — get this — 240 separate 30-second political ads! Sounds appealing, right? OK, guess not. But because we want our readers to be on top of what’s going on in the campaigns, and because we are curious about what the various campaigns and

Kyle Kondik

Notes on the State of Politics: Sept. 28, 2022

Dear Readers: This is the latest edition of Notes on the State of Politics, which features short updates on elections and politics. — The Editors Table 1: Crystal Ball gubernatorial rating changes Governor Old Rating New Rating Gretchen Whitmer (D-MI) Leans Democratic Likely Democratic PA Open (Wolf, D) Leans Democratic Likely Democratic Michigan and Pennsylvania to Likely Democratic With just under 6 weeks to go until Election Day 2022, Democrats’ prospects of holding 2 Great Lakes region governorships are improving. We are moving the contests in Michigan and Pennsylvania from Leans Democratic to Likely Democratic — both races feature proven Democratic candidates running against controversial and underfunded Republicans. We’ll start in Pennsylvania, where the gap in candidate quality between the major-party nominees is one of the biggest of any statewide contest this cycle. With Gov. Tom Wolf (D-PA) term-limited, Democrats fielded, perhaps, their strongest possible nominee in state Attorney General Josh Shapiro. In 2016, Shapiro got enough crossover support from Donald Trump’s voters to hold the state’s open Attorney General contest for Democrats. In 2020, as Republicans flipped the state Auditor and Treasurer offices, Shapiro outperformed Joe Biden by a few points (Pennsylvania elects most of its statewide row officers in presidential years). In

J. Miles Coleman