2022 Governor

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — With months to go until the 2022 gubernatorial primaries, several Republican governors have drawn notable primary challengers. — Still, it is relatively rare for sitting governors to lose renomination, and all GOP incumbents appear to be favored in their primaries. — Most, though not all, Republican primary challengers who have emerged are running to the right of their incumbents. — While we’re holding off on making any ratings changes for now, any primary upsets may prompt us to reevaluate some races. 2022 Republican gubernatorial primaries take shape It’s been almost exactly four months since the Crystal Ball launched our initial 2022 gubernatorial ratings. While we’ve written quite a bit about the race developing in our home state, Virginia, this calendar year, there are three-dozen states that will hold contests next year. Though we won’t be making any ratings changes at this point, some of the developments in key races deserve attention. One theme so far this cycle is that several incumbent Republican governors, from across the GOP’s ideological spectrum, have drawn primary challengers who are at least somewhat credible. Still, it is rare for incumbent governors to lose primaries. The last time more than two

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — Currently, one party controls all of the statewide elected executive offices in 36 of the 50 states. — Candidate decisions by down-ballot executive officeholders in Florida and Missouri could make Republican statewide sweeps easier in those states, and Democrats may have opportunities to sweep more states on their side. Party control of statewide offices Three of June’s most significant candidate announcements involved Democrats who serve in elected, down-ballot statewide offices. Arizona Secretary of State Katie Hobbs (D) and Florida Commissioner of Agriculture Nikki Fried (D) launched bids for governor. Meanwhile, Missouri state Auditor Nicole Galloway (D) announced that she would not seek a second, elected full term in her position. Depending on how things go in their respective states next year, their decisions could have an impact on the dwindling number of states that have members of both parties serving in statewide elected offices. While it’s natural to just focus on state governorships and legislatures when assessing politics in the states, nearly all of the states — 44 of 50 — have partisan, statewide elected executive offices beyond the governorship. These range from higher-profile positions like attorney general and secretary of state to more

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — New York City’s mayors have struggled in their recent efforts to win higher office, but they often become national figures anyway on account of their high-profile position. — Ranked-choice voting as well as the many twists and turns of the race makes it difficult to predict a winner in next week’s Democratic primary. — Republicans can win mayoral elections in New York, but the Democratic primary may very well end up being tantamount to election. NYC’s political landscape on the eve of the mayoral primaries We hope that those vying to be the next mayor of the nation’s largest city do not have electoral ambitions beyond Gracie Mansion. No elected New York City mayor has moved on to a higher elected office since the Reconstruction era. That includes several recent mayors who turned in some of the weakest presidential campaigns in recent memory. Michael Bloomberg, the most recent former mayor, spent gobs of money in last year’s Democratic primary only to win a single contest, American Samoa. In 2008, former Mayor Rudy Giuliani (R) held a soft lead in national Republican primary polls that could not withstand his poor performances in the early contests,

Dear Readers: The University of Virginia Center for Politics has released a trailer for its latest documentary, Common Grounds. Produced entirely by student interns at the Center for Politics, the documentary explores the political climate at UVA through the eyes of several students of differing political beliefs. A primary goal of the project was to foster an atmosphere at UVA that is conducive to constructive discourse. The documentary features interviews with students who reflect on the importance of civility — or the absence of it — in today’s political climate. In another key part of the film, students sit down in a group to discuss the political issues and aim to find consensus. As part of the project, the students painted the phrase “There is common ground on our Grounds” across the Beta Bridge. Located only a few blocks from the iconic Rotunda, the bridge is a focal point on Grounds. The full documentary will premiere later this summer. For more information on the project and the students behind it, see the recent feature from UVA Today, “‘Common Ground on Our Grounds’: Bridging Political Differences.” Virginia held its Democratic primary last night, setting up perhaps the marquee race of the

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — 38 states will see gubernatorial races over the next two years; Democrats currently hold 18 of the seats that will be contested while the GOP holds 20. — Maryland, where popular Gov. Larry Hogan (R-MD) is term-limited, will be hard for Republicans to hold. With a Leans Democratic rating, the Crystal Ball expects a Democrat to flip the seat. — We’re starting the cycle off with five Toss-ups: Arizona, Georgia, Kansas, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. Not coincidentally, four of those gave President Biden very narrow margins last year. — Democrats are clear favorites to retain governorships in three of the nation’s most populous states — California, Illinois, and New York — but they could be better-positioned in each. — In the Senate, Sen. Roy Blunt’s (R-MO) retirement nudges that contest from Safe Republican to Likely Republican. Sizing up 2022’s gubernatorial landscape Midterm election cycles feature the lion’s share of the nation’s gubernatorial races, and there will be 38 gubernatorial elections over the next two years — New Jersey and Virginia in November, and the rest next year. We took a look at the 2021 races last week, and now we’ll dive into the 2022 races. Just

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — Virginia Democrats are trying to win three consecutive gubernatorial races, a feat the party has not accomplished since the 1980s. — Former Gov. Terry McAuliffe (D-VA) is the favorite for his state’s Democratic nomination, though he faces a diverse field. — In a move that’s ruffled some feathers on their side, Virginia Republicans will select their nominee at a May convention. — In New Jersey, Gov. Phil Murphy (D-NJ) is poised to become the state’s first Democratic governor to secure reelection since 1977. — Virginia’s open-seat race starts as Leans Democratic in the Crystal Ball ratings. New Jersey starts as Likely Democratic. Back to the 1980s for Virginia Democrats? With the presidential contest over, and the midterms almost two years off, Virginia and New Jersey are both due for some attention. As the only two states that hold their gubernatorial elections in the odd-numbered years after presidential elections, their results are sometimes framed as barometers for national political moods. We’ll start with the Center for Politics’ home of Virginia, but before we dive into the current election year, some historical perspective is in order. Though they’ll settle on their nominee in a June primary,