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2022 Governor

Sabato's Crystal Ball

2022’s (Potential) Split Ticket States

Dear Readers: We all know democracy is in crisis, but what can we do to fix it? Politics Is Everything is a new podcast from the Center for Politics at the University of Virginia hosted by Carah Ong Whaley, Kyle Kondik, and other members of the Center for Politics team. Each week, episodes will include in-depth conversations with practitioners, academics, students, policymakers, and advocates who are applying their knowledge and experience to improving politics and strengthening democracy. We will also share our expertise from Sabato’s Crystal Ball and engage in thoughtful discussions to inspire informed political and civic participation. Subscribe to Politics Is Everything on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, Amazon Music, or Stitcher. New episodes include a conversation with Bulwark writer and MSNBC analyst Tim Miller about his new book, Why We Did It, and a discussion with the Crystal Ball’s J. Miles Coleman about today’s article, which documents the history of ticket splitting in midterm Senate and gubernatorial races and ponders which states might produce split outcomes this year. — The Editors KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — Over the past several midterms, the number of states splitting their ticket between Senate and gubernatorial races has gone down. — Still, using

J. Miles Coleman

The Gubernatorial Races: Look to the West

Dear Readers: We all know democracy is in crisis, but what can we do to fix it? Politics Is Everything is a new podcast from the Center for Politics at the University of Virginia hosted by Carah Ong Whaley, Kyle Kondik, and other members of the Center for Politics team. Each week, episodes will include in-depth conversations with practitioners, academics, students, policymakers, and advocates who are applying their knowledge and experience to improving politics and strengthening democracy. We will also share our expertise from Sabato’s Crystal Ball and engage in thoughtful discussions to inspire informed political and civic participation. Subscribe to Politics Is Everything on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, Amazon Music, or Stitcher. The first 2 episodes are now posted, and they feature discussions about the race for the Senate and the topic of today’s Crystal Ball, 2022’s gubernatorial races. — The Editors KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — The 5 governorships we see as Toss-ups are all located west of the eastern time zone: Arizona, Kansas, Nevada, Wisconsin, and — now — Oregon. — The large number of incumbents running this year may limit the number of governorships that change hands. — Democrats continue to have the 2 clearest pickups,

Kyle Kondik

Notes on the State of the Primaries: June 29, 2022

Dear Readers: Last night saw primaries and runoffs in several states across the country, as well as a special election in Nebraska. This was the last big primary night of a busy June. Looking ahead, July will not feature much primary action, although there will be some key contests in early August. This is the latest edition of Notes on the State of Politics, which features short updates on elections and politics. We’ll be back next week, following Independence Day. — The Editors Table 1: Crystal Ball gubernatorial rating change Governor Old Rating New Rating JB Pritzker (D-IL) Likely Democratic Safe Democratic Table 2: Crystal Ball House rating change Member/District Old Rating New Rating RI-2 Open (Langevin, D) Likely Democratic Leans Democratic RI-2 to Leans Democratic Before we get to our takeaways from yesterday’s primaries, a quick pit stop in the Ocean State is in order. We wrote extensively on Monday about the Supreme Court’s Dobbs ruling ending a constitutional right to abortion. Perhaps the ruling will have a significant bearing on the midterm, or perhaps not — we need to wait for more data. In the meantime, though, we have to continue evaluating the races based on what we know

Kyle Kondik and J. Miles Coleman

Politics in the Post-Roe World

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — The president’s party often struggles in midterms, although extraordinary circumstances can save them from losses. The Supreme Court’s overturning of Roe vs. Wade could be 2022’s extraordinary circumstance. — Beyond abortion, Republicans still retain powerful political advantages. — Democrats could get their version of 2018’s “Kavanaugh Effect.” — 2022 won’t definitively resolve the abortion question. The midterm after Dobbs The ordinary outcome in midterm elections is that the president’s party loses ground, almost always in the House and often in the Senate and the statehouses as well. Of the 40 midterms held since the Civil War, the president’s party has lost ground in the House in 37 of them. The 3 exceptions show that in order to buck the ordinary midterm trend, the president’s party needs to benefit from some sort of extraordinary occurrence. In 1934, Franklin Roosevelt’s immense popularity as he fought the Great Depression helped Democrats make a small gain in the House and a big gain in the Senate. In 1998, a roaring economy contributed to Bill Clinton’s popularity, and Republicans likely overplayed their hand on their pursuit of Clinton’s impeachment over the fallout around his affair with a White House

Kyle Kondik

Governors: Escaping Public’s Wrath Even as So Many Others Draw Ire

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — Virtually every measurement of public opinion shows that Americans are in a foul mood about their political leaders and institutions. But one group seems to have escaped this wrath: governors. — State-level job approval polls from Morning Consult show that 92% of governors are “above water” with voters in their states — that is, they have higher approval ratings than they do disapproval ratings. With a handful of exceptions, the data from other pollsters back up the general pattern seen in the Morning Consult polling. — The polling suggests that several Democratic governors who are considered particularly vulnerable in a Republican-leaning midterm environment have managed to put some distance between how voters see them and President Joe Biden, which could improve their chances of winning reelection. — The reasons why governors seem to be faring relatively well in this sour environment may have to do with the nature of the most worrisome issues for voters today (which include a number of policies that governors don’t directly control, such as inflation) and relatively flush coffers due to federal aid (which is sparing governors from having to make unpopular cuts or raise taxes). The resilient popularity

Louis Jacobson

How Many Governorships Can Be Expected to Change Parties in November?

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — Although off-year elections for governor generally yield worse results for the party of the president than for the opposition, whether the incumbent governor is running for reelection is a mediating factor. — The worst outcomes for the party of the president often come when that party has to defend an open seat, and the best for the non-presidential party occurs when the sitting governor is making a bid for another term. — Open seats can be challenging to defend even for the non-presidential party. What history tells us about this year’s gubernatorial landscape Speculation is running rampant regarding whether Democrats or Republicans will win control of Congress this November. A different question attracts less attention: How many governorships will change parties? History offers an answer. Results from 531 elections from 49 states[1] drawn from a series starting no earlier than the 1930s in which at least 2 changes of party control took place, one at the beginning and one at the end of a party’s spell in office, show a pattern displayed in Figure 1.[2] It shows that in elections held in off-years, the president’s party has only a 25% chance of defending an

Alfred G. Cuzán

Notes on the State of the Primaries: June 15, 2022

Dear Readers: Tuesday night saw primaries in 4 states, as well as a closely-watched (but lightly-voted) U.S. House special election in Texas. In the aftermath of these contests, we’re making 4 rating changes, although 2 of them are in states that didn’t have elections on Tuesday. This is the latest edition of Notes on the State of Politics, which features short updates on elections and politics. — The Editors P.S. We’re pleased to announce that our recent student-produced documentary focusing on how to navigate contrasting political views, Common Grounds?, was just nominated for an Emmy Award. For more on the recognition and to watch the film, see this recent story in UVA Today. Table 1: Crystal Ball House rating changes Member/District Old Rating New Rating TX-15 Open (No inc.) Leans Republican Likely Republican TX-34 (Gonzalez/Flores) Likely Democratic Leans Democratic Table 2: Crystal Ball Senate rating change Senator Old Rating New Rating Mike Lee (R-UT) Safe Republican Likely Republican Table 3: Crystal Ball gubernatorial rating change Governor Old Rating New Rating Phil Scott (R-VT) Likely Republican Safe Republican GOP flip in TX-34 sparks South Texas rating changes Republicans flipped a U.S. House seat on Tuesday in Hispanic-heavy South Texas, winning TX-34,

Kyle Kondik and J. Miles Coleman

Rating Change: Ohio Gubernatorial Race to Safe Republican

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — The Ohio gubernatorial race moves from Likely Republican to Safe Republican. — A close poll does not mean the Ohio Senate race is a Toss-up. Table 1: Crystal Ball gubernatorial rating change Governor Old Rating New Rating Mike DeWine (R-OH) Likely Republican Safe Republican Checking in on Ohio a month after the primary While Ohio’s strong shift right in presidential elections is recent, the dominance of the GOP in state-level races is not. In addition to holding the state Senate since the 1984 election and the state House for all but 2 years since the 1994 election, Republicans have now held the governorship for 28 of the last 32 years. We feel very confident that the GOP is going to extend that streak to 32 of 36 years, and we are moving that race from Likely Republican to Safe Republican. Gov. Mike DeWine (R-OH), whose career in elective politics stretches back to the 1970s, is seeking a second term this year against former Dayton Mayor Nan Whaley (D). We came close to moving this race a month ago, in the aftermath of the Ohio primary, but we held off because DeWine only won his

Kyle Kondik

Rating Change: GA-GOV to Leans Republican Following Kemp’s Smashing Primary Win

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — Gov. Brian Kemp (R-GA) shellacked Donald Trump-backed former Sen. David Perdue (R-GA) in the Georgia Republican primary on Tuesday, and we are moving the general election race from Toss-up to Leans Republican. — The sheer size of Kemp’s win paired with Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger’s (R-GA) renomination represents the biggest Republican electoral rebuke to Trump since he left the White House. — Blue Dog Rep. Henry Cuellar (D, TX-28) held a tiny lead over progressive Jessica Cisneros (D) in a closely-watched South Texas runoff. Table 1: Crystal Ball gubernatorial rating change Governor Old Rating New Rating Brian Kemp (R-GA) Toss-up Leans Republican Trump rebuked in Georgia Asked about his weak polling in advance of his primary challenge to Gov. Brian Kemp (R-GA), former Sen. David Perdue (R-GA) said that he might lose, “but I can damn guarantee you that we are not down 30 points.” Quite right. He was down by a lot more than that. Kemp crushed Perdue 74%-22% in the Georgia gubernatorial primary on Tuesday night. The incumbent actually did better in this primary (73.7%) than he did in his 2018 Republican primary runoff (69.5%), meaning he did better with former

Kyle Kondik and J. Miles Coleman

Notes on the State of Politics: May 11, 2022

Dear Readers: This is the latest edition of Notes on the State of Politics, which features short updates on elections and politics. — The Editors New York: No map, but 2 special elections The last few months have not been especially kind to Gov. Kathy Hochul (D-NY). Shortly after she was elevated to replace her predecessor, now-former Gov. Andrew Cuomo (D), last year, she appointed then-state Sen. Brian Benjamin to her old post as lieutenant governor. The pairing seemed like it could be formidable: Hochul is from Buffalo and seems firmly within the mainstream of her party, while Benjamin, who was set to be her running mate, is a Black progressive from New York City. As it turned out, though, Benjamin entered the lieutenant governor’s office with some ethical baggage. Last month, he resigned after a 5-count indictment alleging that he essentially traded public money for campaign contributions. Another recent setback for Hochul was that, on April 27, the Democratic gerrymander of the state’s congressional map — which she signed off on — was thrown out by the New York Court of Appeals (the state’s highest court). The now-void plan insulated the state’s more vulnerable Democratic members and imperiled several Republican-held seats, with the

J. Miles Coleman

Notes on the State of Politics: May 5, 2022

Dear Readers: We’re pleased to feature 3 items today from our Spring 2022 Crystal Ball interns: Sarah Pharr, Aviaé Gibson, and Alex Kellum. They write, respectively, on trends in youth voter turnout; the voter disenfranchisement of convicted felons; and the roots of the civility crisis in Congress. We thank them for their help this semester in working on the Crystal Ball. — The Editors Youth voter turnout and the 2022 midterm With control of both the House of Representatives and the Senate on the line in the upcoming midterm elections, the energy and turnout of young voters could have a decisive impact on the outcome of several key congressional races this election season. Democrats owe a good deal of their success in the 2018 congressional and 2020 presidential elections to the jump in voter turnout, especially among young voters. In the 2020 presidential election, about half of eligible voters younger than 30 cast ballots, constituting an 11-point increase from their 39% turnout rate in 2016, according to the Tufts University Tisch College Center for Information & Research on Civic Learning and Engagement (CIRCLE). Younger voters are generally more Democratic than older voters. Map 1, reprinted from CIRCLE, shows its analysis

Sarah Pharr, Aviaé Gibson, and Alex Kellum

A Trump Bump for Vance

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — It’s hard to quantify exactly what Donald Trump’s endorsement of J.D. Vance was worth in the Ohio GOP Senate primary, but Vance’s victory likely will reaffirm the belief among Republicans that Trump’s endorsement is very much worth having. — Both the Ohio gubernatorial and Senate races remain rated Likely Republican for the general election. The Vance victory What is a Donald Trump endorsement worth to a Republican candidate in a major race? To J.D. Vance, the author and newly-minted Republican Senate nominee in Ohio, it probably was the difference between winning and not winning, although the effect is hard to quantify with the limited information we have. Fabrizio, Lee & Associates, a respected Republican firm polling for a pro-Vance outside group, released a poll in March showing Vance tied at 18% with businessman Mike Gibbons and former state Treasurer Josh Mandel in the primary. This was before the Trump endorsement. A few days after the endorsement (mid-April), the firm put out another poll, showing Vance up to 25% and leading. A week later, the firm had Vance up to 31%, almost identical to the 32% he received. Using this set of polls, you could

Kyle Kondik and J. Miles Coleman

How Minority Parties (Might) Compete in One-Party States

Dear Readers: The UVA Center for Politics is hosting a virtual event later today (Thursday, April 28) with the ambassadors to the United States from the Baltic states. Ambassadors Audra Plepytė of Lithuania, Kristjan Prikk of Estonia, and Māris Selga of Latvia will discuss their respective nations’ relationship with the United States and how the Russian invasion of Ukraine impacts them. The three nations were formerly part of the Soviet Union and are NATO members. The forum, which is free and open to the public, will run from 2 p.m. to 3:30 p.m. eastern time and will be available at https://livestream.com/tavco/balticambassadorconversation. In yesterday’s Crystal Ball, we analyzed the Republican gerrymander of Florida. Later in the day, New York state’s highest court threw out a Democratic gerrymander there. It remains to be seen what the ultimate map will look like, but it certainly won’t be a map on which Democrats could win a 22-4 statewide edge, which was the goal of the now-defunct map. In other words, the Republicans’ odds of winning the House, already good, just got better. We will have more to say about this once the replacement New York map comes into focus. In today’s issue, Senior Columnist

Louis Jacobson

The Challenges of Being Buffalo in Today’s New York State

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — Buffalo, and the Western New York region that surrounds it, is further from its state’s population and political centers than almost any major city in the continental U.S. This has made it challenging for political leaders in the region to keep their political clout. — Buffalo and Western New York have seen declines in population in recent decades. On top of this, the Democratic takeover of the state Senate in 2018 robbed the region’s Republicans of a bulwark against the political priorities of the New York City metro area. — The elevation of Kathy Hochul, who is from the Buffalo area, to the governorship in 2021 could give the region a boost. But that may have to wait until she’s secured a term of her own this November. A (Buffalo) NY state of mind BUFFALO — This city on Lake Erie is the second largest in the nation’s fourth-largest state. But Buffalo, and the surrounding region known as Western New York, is more remote from the state’s population base (metropolitan New York City) and its levers of political power (Albany) than any other sizable metro area in the country. Kathy Hochul, a Democrat who

Louis Jacobson

The Challenges of Electing Governors and Lieutenant Governors Separately

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — In almost half the states, governors and lieutenant governors are either nominated separately, or else the official who is next in the line of succession is elected separately. — This makes it reasonably common for the governor and lieutenant governor to come from separate parties. Currently, Louisiana, North Carolina, and Vermont fall into this category. Sometimes these pairings work smoothly; other times, they don’t. — Even governors and lieutenant governors from the same party can have relationships that range from distant to acrimonious. There are recent examples of this phenomenon in Idaho and Rhode Island. — In states where gubernatorial candidates cannot choose their running mates, it may be harder for them to win the governorship in the first place. Lieutenant governors across the country In some ways, the lieutenant governor of a state is much like the vice president on the federal level: They serve as a backup in case of death or resignation from office, and they don’t have a lot of other specific duties in their portfolio. But in almost half the states, there’s a big difference from the vice presidency — lieutenant governors are elected separately from the governor. In

Louis Jacobson