2022 Governor

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — Amid a promising national environment for Republicans, we are changing ratings in 4 gubernatorial contests — 3 of which are in the GOP’s favor. — The power of gubernatorial incumbency will be tested in 2022, both by a plethora of Republican primary challengers to sitting GOP governors and, for Democrats, by the national political climate in next year’s general election. — This election will feature a relatively high number of incumbents running for reelection compared to many previous midterm years (midterms are when the bulk of the gubernatorial elections are held). — Despite playing defense in many vulnerable races across the country, Democrats have the 2 clearest gubernatorial pickup opportunities. Table 1: Crystal Ball gubernatorial rating changes Governor Old Rating New Rating MD Open (Hogan, R) Leans Democratic Likely Democratic Tim Walz (D-MN) Likely Democratic Leans Democratic Steve Sisolak (D-NV) Leans Democratic Toss-up M. Lujan Grisham (D-NM) Likely Democratic Leans Democratic Map 1: Crystal Ball gubernatorial ratings Testing the power of gubernatorial incumbency Next year’s packed gubernatorial slate will be defined in large part by the push and pull between a couple of vital factors: the power of incumbency versus the power of the

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — The non-presidential party often performs better in off-year elections than it did in the previous cycle’s presidential race. The recent Virginia and New Jersey gubernatorial races are no exception, both this year and historically. — This likely has more to do with an enthusiasm advantage generating better turnout for the non-presidential party than that party’s ability to attract considerable numbers of voters who supported the presidential party in the most recent presidential race. — Based on exit polls, the Virginia electorate in 2021 was markedly more Republican-leaning than the 2020 presidential electorate. Conversion vs. mobilization in 2021 Republican Glenn Youngkin’s victory in the 2021 Virginia gubernatorial election along with the surprisingly narrow win by Democratic incumbent Phil Murphy in the New Jersey gubernatorial contest shocked many observers of American politics. Both states had strongly supported Joe Biden in the 2020 presidential election, New Jersey by 16 points and Virginia by 10 points. The results of these two high-profile off-year elections have led to speculation that some key voting groups such as college-educated suburbanites that had swung Democratic in 2020 out of opposition to Donald Trump were swinging back to Republicans — a shift that

Dear Readers: Join us Thursday, Nov. 4 from 6:30 p.m. to 8 p.m. for our annual American Democracy Conference. The virtual event will begin with a presentation by Project Home Fire’s Larry Schack and Mick McWilliams on our ongoing polling and data analytics project. They will be followed by discussions on the state of politics moderated by Carah Whaley, Assistant Director of the James Madison Center for Civic Engagement, and featuring UVA Center for Politics resident scholars Jamelle Bouie, David Ramadan, and Tara Setmayer; former Rep. Barbara Comstock (R, VA-10); and Crystal Ball Managing Editor Kyle Kondik. The free, virtual event will be available at this link: https://livestream.com/tavco/uvacfp-adc2021 — The Editors KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — This Virginia gubernatorial race is one of the most vexing races we can remember. — Terry McAuliffe (D) retains the advantage of running in a state that is clearly trending Democratic. But Glenn Youngkin (R) has many significant advantages of his own, which may outweigh Virginia’s Democratic lean. — When assessing what the eventual results tell us about the political environment, one’s analysis shouldn’t change much if the race itself ends up being as close as the bulk of the polls project, no

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — The vote count in California is finally done, and there were some noticeable trends in the results. — While the recall election largely lined up with the 2018 gubernatorial result, some notable changes are evident when comparing last month’s vote to other recent statewide races. — That the Democrats performed very well in that race even in the midst of Joe Biden’s still ongoing slide in popularity is an interesting data point, but it’s just a single one that may not be confirmed by looming statewide races in more competitive states, such as Virginia. Contextualizing the finalized California vote The political environment for Democrats has weakened in recent months, and President Joe Biden’s national approval rating has sunk to its lowest point in the FiveThirtyEight polling average, which showed him at just a 44% approve/50% disapprove split as of Wednesday. There is some considerable variation in the polling, ranging from Biden at a net-neutral approval rating all the way to being at a double-digits-sized approval deficit. But the key point is that after Biden’s approval rating turned negative in late August following the collapse of the U.S.-backed regime in Afghanistan, his numbers really haven’t gotten better

Dear Readers: Join us next Tuesday at 4 p.m. eastern for “Moon Rovers, Boots on Mars, and Exploring the Cosmos: A Conversation on the Politics of Space” with NASA Administrator Bill Nelson and UVA Center for Politics Director Larry J. Sabato. Prior to serving as the NASA administrator, Nelson was a three-term Democratic senator from Florida. He traveled to space onboard the space shuttle Columbia in 1986. To watch Tuesday’s program, visit https://livestream.com/tavco/billnelsoninterview — The Editors KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — In the closely-watched Virginia gubernatorial race, Glenn Youngkin (R) is keeping it close with Terry McAuliffe (D), in part because he now enjoys some of the advantages that Democrats enjoyed in Virginia during Donald Trump’s presidency. — Though the McAuliffe campaign has worked relentlessly to tie Youngkin to Trump, an unpopular figure in the commonwealth who has endorsed Youngkin several times, President Biden’s weakened approval ratings weigh on Democrats. Congressional Democrats’ lack of action on big-item legislation, specifically on infrastructure and social spending, also seems to be dampening enthusiasm among their rank-and-file voters. — The down-ballot races will probably be linked closely with the top of the ticket, with the state House of Delegates up for grabs in addition

Dear Readers: Politico’s Carla Marinucci has long been our go-to source for top reporting about politics in California, and she is a co-author of the daily California Playbook, a must-read newsletter on politics and policy in the nation’s largest state. With the Golden State’s recall vote on Gov. Gavin Newsom (D-CA) coming up on Tuesday, we’re delighted to feature Carla in the Crystal Ball today. Carla previews the upcoming election, a race that Newsom appears favored to win despite some tense moments over the past few months. The Crystal Ball’s rating of the recall remains Likely Democratic. We’ll publish our own analysis of the results next Wednesday. — The Editors KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — The pandemic fueled the recall campaign against Gov. Gavin Newsom (D-CA), but its continued salience has arguably helped him at the end of the campaign. — The emergence of conservative commentator Larry Elder as Newsom’s top Republican challenger has given Newsom a useful foil, to the consternation of some recall backers. — Even if Newsom wins the recall, it will have come at a hefty price tag both for Democrats and for taxpayers. Inside the California recall SACRAMENTO — For California Democratic Gov. Gavin

One of the most common questions we got around this time last year was whether there was some way for the then-presumptive Democratic presidential nominee, Joe Biden, to be replaced as the nominee by… Andrew Cuomo, the three-term Democratic governor of New York who had become an omnipresent figure in the nation’s struggle with COVID-19. A year later, Cuomo is resigning following several credible accusations that he sexually harassed state employees. His resignation will be effective in two weeks, and Lt. Gov. Kathy Hochul (D) will take over and become New York’s first woman governor. Cuomo’s resignation comes several days after state Attorney General Tish James (D) released the results of an investigation that concluded Cuomo “engaged in conduct constituting sexual harassment under federal and New York State law.” Cuomo had lost the support of the nation’s top Democrats: President Biden called for his resignation following the release of the report, as did many others. The Democratic-controlled state legislature was prepared to impeach and remove Cuomo if he did not resign. From a political standpoint, Cuomo’s exit might make it easier for Democrats to defend the New York governorship, which they have won for four consecutive elections. Eliot Spitzer (D)